This research was geared towards the investigation of management strategies (factors) that affect the performance ofMSMEs in Kenya. Many developed countries record a time in history when entrepreneurial activities led to revival of economical growth after decline. This implies MSMEs is a very vital sector especially for a developing country like Kenya. MSMEs stagnate and their performance is uncertain according to writers such as Namusonge, Management inadequacies have been suggested in several studies. The objectives of this research was to, 1. To identifY the critical management factors affecting the performance of MSMEs in Kenya; ii. To establish the process through which managerial factors affect the performance of a MSMEs in Kenya ; m. To determine the integrative effect of various management factors in the MSMES in Kenya; IV. To establish the effect of demographics and management factors on performance, v. To establish effects of external environment on internal management factors A conceptual model was formulated from the literature review showing relationships of the management strategies and the environment they operate in. These relationships became the basis for the hypotheses which were later tested. In chapter 4, a mini research (pilot study) was conducted in May 2007,whose main aim was to test the reliability and validity of the research instruments. The 36 questionnaires returned were analysed through descriptive method. Results obtained indicated the instruments were reliable and the results valid. A few corrections suggested were made. The major correction was addition of question 35 to collect financial information. The data collection was done between mid August and mid October 2007.In chapter 5, the researcher analysesd the results of the survey after receiving 180 questionnaires. Time was a constraint. In chapter 6, the hypotheses and conceptual model were analysed and the results obtained suggested that, most strategies did not affect the profitability separately but severally. The integrated effect of the management strategies and the associated factors had a higher impact on performance of the MSMES than any individual strategies. In chapter 7, the conclusions, summaries and Recommendations are given. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management and Policy)

With the advent of computers and the information age, vast amounts of data generated in a great deal of science and industry fields require the statisticians to explore further. In particular, statistical and computational problems in biology and medicine have created a new field of bioinformatics, which is attracting more and more statisticians, computer scientists, and biologists. Several procedures have been developed for tracing the source of fecal pollution in water resources based on certain characteristics of certain microorganisms. Use of this collection of techniques has been termed microbial source tracking (MST). Most of the current methods for MST are based on patterns of either phenotypic or genotypic variation in indicator organisms. Studies also suggested that patterns of genotypic variation might be more reliable due to their less association with environmental factors than those of phenotypic variation. Among the genotypic methods for source tracking, fingerprinting via rep-PCR is most common. Thus, identifying the specific pollution sources in contaminated waters based on rep-PCR fingerprinting techniques, viewed as a classification problem, has become an increasingly popular research topic in bioinformatics. In the project, several statistical methods for classification were studied, including linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and $k$-nearest-neighbor rules, neural networks and support vector machine. This project report summaries each of these methods and relevant statistical theory. In addition, an application of these methods to a particular set of MST data is presented and comparisons are made.

This research was geared towards the investigation of management strategies (factors) that affect the performance ofMSMEs in Kenya. Many developed countries record a time in history when entrepreneurial activities led to revival of economical growth after decline. This implies MSMEs is a very vital sector especially for a developing country like Kenya. MSMEs stagnate and their performance is uncertain according to writers such as Namusonge, Management inadequacies have been suggested in several studies. The objectives of this research was to, 1. To identifY the critical management factors affecting the performance of MSMEs in Kenya; ii. To establish the process through which managerial factors affect the performance of a MSMEs in Kenya ; m. To determine the integrative effect of various management factors in the MSMES in Kenya; IV. To establish the effect of demographics and management factors on performance, v. To establish effects of external environment on internal management factors A conceptual model was formulated from the literature review showing relationships of the management strategies and the environment they operate in. These relationships became the basis for the hypotheses which were later tested. In chapter 4, a mini research (pilot study) was conducted in May 2007,whose main aim was to test the reliability and validity of the research instruments. The 36 questionnaires returned were analysed through descriptive method. Results obtained indicated the instruments were reliable and the results valid. A few corrections suggested were made. The major correction was addition of question 35 to collect financial information. The data collection was done between mid August and mid October 2007.In chapter 5, the researcher analysesd the results of the survey after receiving 180 questionnaires. Time was a constraint. In chapter 6, the hypotheses and conceptual model were analysed and the results obtained suggested that, most strategies did not affect the profitability separately but severally. The integrated effect of the management strategies and the associated factors had a higher impact on performance of the MSMES than any individual strategies. In chapter 7, the conclusions, summaries and Recommendations are given. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management and Policy)

This thesis deals with the increasingly developing field of biometric systems which is the identification of faces. The thesis deals with the possibilities of face localization in pictures and their normalization, which is necessary due to external influences and the influence of different scanning techniques. It describes various techniques of localization of dominant features of the face such as eyes, mouth or nose. Not least, it describes different approaches to the identification of faces. Furthermore a it deals with an implementation of the Dominant Face Features Recognition application, which demonstrates chosen methods for localization of the dominant features (Hough Transform for Circles, localization of mouth using the location of the eyes) and for identification of a face (Linear Discriminant Analysis, Kernel Discriminant Analysis). The last part of the thesis contains a summary of achieved results and a discussion.

Smokeless powders are a set of energetic materials, known as low explosives, which are typically utilized for reloading ammunition. There are three types which differ in their primary energetic materials; where single base powders contain nitrocellulose as their primary energetic material, double and triple base powders contain nitroglycerin in addition to nitrocellulose, and triple base powders also contain nitroguanidine. Additional organic compounds, while not proprietary to specific manufacturers, are added to the powders in varied ratios during the manufacturing process to optimize the ballistic performance of the powders. The additional compounds function as stabilizers, plasticizers, flash suppressants, deterrents, and opacifiers. Of the three smokeless powder types, single and double base powders are commercially available, and have been heavily utilized in the manufacture of improvised explosive devices. Forensic smokeless powder samples are currently analyzed using multiple analytical techniques. Combined microscopic, macroscopic, and instrumental techniques are used to evaluate the sample, and the information obtained is used to generate a list of potential distributors. Gas chromatography – mass spectrometry (GC-MS) is arguably the most useful of the instrumental techniques since it distinguishes single and double base powders, and provides additional information about the relative ratios of all the analytes present in the sample. However, forensic smokeless powder samples are still limited to being classified as either single or double base powders, based on the absence or presence of nitroglycerin, respectively. In this work, the goal was to develop statistically valid classes, beyond the single and double base designations, based on multiple organic compounds which are commonly encountered in commercial smokeless powders. Several chemometric techniques were applied to smokeless powder GC-MS data for determination of the classes, and for assignment of test samples to these novel classes. The total ion spectrum (TIS), which is calculated from the GC-MS data for each sample, is obtained by summing the intensities for each mass-to-charge (m/z) ratio across the entire chromatographic profile. A TIS matrix comprising data for 726 smokeless powder samples was subject to agglomerative hierarchical cluster (AHC) analysis, and six distinct classes were identified. Within each class, a single m/z ratio had the highest intensity for the majority of samples, though the m/z ratio was not always unique to the specific class. Based on these observations, a new classification method known as the Intense Ion Rule (IIR) was developed and used for the assignment of test samples to the AHC designated classes. Discriminant models were developed for assignment of test samples to the AHC designated classes using k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and linear and quadratic discriminant analyses (LDA and QDA, respectively). Each of the models were optimized using leave-one-out (LOO) and leave-group-out (LGO) cross-validation, and the performance of the models was evaluated by calculating correct classification rates for assignment of the cross-validation (CV) samples to the AHC designated classes. The optimized models were utilized to assign test samples to the AHC designated classes. Overall, the QDA LGO model achieved the highest correct classification rates for assignment of both the CV samples and the test samples to the AHC designated classes. In forensic application, the goal of an explosives analyst is to ascertain the manufacturer of a smokeless powder sample. In addition, knowledge about the probability of a forensic sample being produced by a specific manufacturer could potentially decrease the time invested by an analyst during investigation by providing a shorter list of potential manufacturers. In this work, Bayes* Theorem and Bayesian Networks were investigated as an additional tool to be utilized in forensic casework. Bayesian Networks were generated and used to calculate posterior probabilities of a test sample belonging to specific manufacturers. The networks were designed to include manufacturer controlled powder characteristics such as shape, color, and dimension; as well as, the relative intensities of the class associated ions determined from cluster analysis. Samples were predicted to belong to a manufacturer based on the highest posterior probability. Overall percent correct rates were determined by calculating the percentage of correct predictions; that is, where the known and predicted manufacturer were the same. The initial overall percent correct rate was 66%. The dimensions of the smokeless powders were added to the network as average diameter and average length nodes. Addition of average diameter and length resulted in an overall prediction rate of 70%.

The influence of spectral resolution on land cover classification in Krkonoše Mts. tundra Abstract The aim of this diploma thesis was to specify the spectral resolution requirements for classification and to identify the most important spectral bands to discriminate classes of the predefined legend. Aerial hyperspectral data acquired by AisaDUAL sensor were used. The method applied for the selection of the important bands was discriminant analysis performed in IBM SPSS Statistics. The most discriminative bands were found in intervals 1500-1750 nm (beginning of SWIR), 1100- 1300 nm (longer wavelengths of NIR), 670-760 (red-edge) and 500-600 nm (green light). The classification of the selected bands was realized in ENVI 5.4 using the Support Vector Machine classifier, achieving overall accuracy of 80,54 %, Kappa coefficient 0,7755. The suitability of available satellite data for the classification of tundra vegetation in Krkonoše mountains based on spectral resolution was evaluated as well. Keywords: tundra, Krkonoše, classification, spectral resolution, class separability, discriminant analysis, hyperspectral data

Orientador: Carlos Roberto Padovani / Banca: Adriano Wagner Ballarin / Banca: Flávio Fekkari Aragon / Banca: José Carlos Martinez / Banca: Marie Oshiiwa / Resumo: Aspectos teóricos relacionados à Análise Discriminante Multivariada - Linear e Quadrática - foram discutidos, por meio de um extenso levantamento histórico da função discriminante, com seus primórdios no trabalho de Fisher e sua posterior evolução, enfocando o intenso desenvolvimento das técnicas classificatórias discriminantes com o advento dos computadores. Foi dada ênfase aos softwares estatísticos desenvolvidos para PC, que realizam a análise discriminante, e que representam uma grande contribuição para pesquisadores e usuários desta técnica. Considerando a dificuldade existente quanto a aplicativos computacionais acessíveis a pesquisadores da área de ciências agrárias, elaborou-se um programa que realiza a análise discriminante quadrática com as respectivas freqüências de classificação correta, bem como o manual explicativo do usuário. Verificou-se que a função discriminante quadrática trata de um procedimento bastante útil nas ciências agrárias, como, por exemplo, em estudos nas áreas de solos, cultivos diversos (soja, milho, cana de açúcar, pupunha, braquiária, frutas), criação de animais e classificação e seleção de madeiras; porém, subutilizada frente à dificuldade de programas computacionais de fácil manuseio e acesso a pesquisadores das áreas aplicadas. Os procedimentos estudados e discutidos foram ilustrados com exemplos de aplicação, utilizando dados experimentais agronômicos de espécies de Girassóis e Eucalyptus, submetidos ao aplicativo desenvolvido. / Abstract: A large historical study of the discriminant function has allowed a discussion on theoretical aspects related to the Multivaried Discriminant Analysis - Linear and Quadratic, showing its past in the work of Fisher and its later evolution, emphasizing the wide development of classificatory discriminant techniques with the happening of the computers, and specific statistic softwares which practice the discriminant analysis, representing a big contribution to researches and users of this technique. Considering the difficulty in relation to accessible softwares to researches of the agrarian area, a software which performs a linear and quadratic discriminant analysis was built with its frequencies of correct classification, as well as an explicative manual to users. The quadratic discriminant was studied as being a very useful process in agrarian sciences. Some examples of this usefulness is in studies of the ground, diversified cultivation (soybean, corn, sugarcane, pejibaye, brachiaria decumbens fruits), animal creation and wood selection, and classification; however, misused in relation to the difficulties of easy handing and access to researchers of applied areas. The studied and discussed procedures were illustrated with applications, using agronomic experimental data of Sunflower and Eucalyptus, submitted to developed software. / Doutor

Estudos com o objetivo de prever insolvência de empresas e que fazem uso de técnicas estatísticas modernas são conduzidos desde a década de 1960. Esta linha de pesquisa, que inicialmente usou técnicas univariadas, e em seguida incorporou as análises multivariadas, hoje emprega largamente técnicas que fazem uso de inteligência artificial e que necessitam uma grande capacidade de processamento computacional. Esta evolução trouxe melhorias contínuas aos resultados alcançados e hoje é possível afirmar que os demonstrativos financeiros de empresas quando analisados adequadamente são uma fonte importante de informação para a previsão de insolvência. Esta pesquisa teve como principal objetivo desenvolver e comparar modelos estatísticos usando as técnicas de Análise Discriminante Linear, Regressão Logística e Redes Neurais Artificiais a fim de investigar qual delas oferece os melhores resultados. A amostra foi composta por 40 empresas, divididas em dois grupos: o primeiro com empresas formalmente insolventes segundo os critérios da legislação brasileira, e o segundo com empresas sem tais problemas. Foram usadas inicialmente 16 variáveis para predição e empregou-se um critério de seleção de variáveis baseado nos melhores subconjuntos possíveis ao invés do stepwise. Foi tomado especial cuidado com os pré-requisitos das técnicas, sobretudo da Análise Discriminante, como normalidade e ausência de multicolinearidade das variáveis independentes. Os resultados das previsões obtidas com os modelos foram coerentes com o esperado, ou seja, a Análise Discriminante teve um desempenho inferior à Regressão Logística que também foi superada pelas Redes Neurais Artificiais. / Researches in bankruptcy prediction of companies that make use of modern statistics techniques are being held since the 1960’s. This branch of study, which initially employed univariate techniques, and then assimilated the multivariate techniques today uses artificial intelligence, a techniques that needs a great computational processing capability. This evolution brought continuing improvements to the results achieved and today is possible to say that financial statements when properly analyzed are a good source of information to the prediction of financial distress. This research aimed mainly the development of prediction models using Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Networks so that they could be compared in terms of predictive capabilities. The sample consisted of 40 firms divided in 2 groups (bankrupt and non bankrupt companies) according to the Brazilian bankruptcy law. The 16 initial predictors were selected to enter the model according to the best subsets procedure in order than the stepwise procedure. Special attention was taken to accomplish the pre-requisites of the techniques, above all the Discriminant Analysis, like normality and lack of multicollinearity of the independent variables. The findings of the predictions were reasonable and according to what was expected: the Discriminant Analysis was outperformed by the Logistic Regression that was also outperformed by the Artificial Neural Networks.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T19:15:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 28 / Nenhuma / Este estudo, em suas abrangências teórica e prática, tem por objetivo apresentar um modelo de previsão de insolvência que retrate a realidade das micro e pequenas empresas (MPEs), fundamentado na utilização das análises discriminante e fatorial. Para atingir este objetivo realizou-se uma pesquisa qualitativa com os profissionais atuantes nos escritórios de contabilidade do Rio Grande do Sul, obtendo-se informações contábeis de 104 MPEs do período de 1995 a 2007. Para análise dos dados, foi adotado o software SPSS 10, cuja aplicação da análise fatorial reduziu o número de indica dores contábeis de 25 para 5 fatores. Para a construção da função discriminante Z, a qual permite identificar a que grupo de empresas pertence cada empresa que compõe à amostra, foi utilizada a análise discriminante. A validação do modelo foi realizada por meio do método conhecido como crossvalidation, ou seja, a subdivisão da amostra original, sendo uma para a definição do modelo e outra para a sua validação. O grau de predição do m / This study, in its theoretical and practical scope, aims to present a model for prediction of insolvency that portray the reality of micro and small enterprises (MEPs), based on the use of discriminant analysis and factor. To achieve this goal there was a qualitative research with professionals in the accounting office of Rio Grande do Sul, obtaining information accounting of 104 MEPs in the period 1995 to 2007. For data analysis, SPSS software was adopted 10, whose application of factor analysis reduced the number of pain states accounting for 25 to 5 factors. For the construction of the discriminant function Z, which allows to identify which group of companies that make each company belongs to the sample, we used the discriminant analysis. The model validation was done using the method known as crossvalidation, ie the subdivision of the original sample, one for defining the model and one for its validation. The degree of prediction of the model reached 96.15% of accuracy, representing a good index for predi

Neste trabalho se estuda a aplicação de técnicas de estatística multivariada para reconhecimento de padrões em sinais de ensaios não destrutivos (END) magnéticos, baseados no Ruído Magnético de Barkhausen (RMB). O reconhecimento de padrões pode ser feito de forma não supervisionada com a técnica multivariada de Análise de Agrupamentos, conglomerados ou Clusters que definem grupos segundo critérios de similaridade. Já para reconhecimento supervisionado a Análise Discriminante procura classificar amostras novas em grupos conhecidos, a priori, usando para este propósito uma regra de classificação criada a partir desses grupos de amostras conhecidos. Foram utilizados dois casos de detecção e classificação utilizando RMB. O RMB é um fenômeno magnético gerado por abruptas mudanças na magnetização de materiais ferromagnéticos quando submetidos a campos magnéticos variáveis. Essas mudanças estão relacionadas com a microestrutura do material, presença e distribuição de tensões elásticas (tensão e compressão). No primeiro caso de estudo procura-se identificar arames quebrados em risers, através da medição de tensão mecânica. No segundo caso procura-se classificar diferentes tratamentos térmicos em Aço AISI 420. Para a análise de integridade estrutural de risers foi feita a redução da dimensionalidade dos dados via Análise de Componentes Principais e posteriormente Análise de Agrupamentos. Já para o problema de classificação de amostras de aço foi usada a técnica de Análise Discriminante Linear de Fisher e a Quadrática. Os resultados das análises mostraram que as técnicas de Estatísticas Multivariadas proporcionam ferramentas muito adequadas para aumentar a eficiência da inspeção na área de END Magnéticos em geral e RMB em particular. / The present work deals with application of multivariate statistic techniques for pattern recognition in signals from Non-Destructive Essays (NDE), based on the Magnetic Barkhausen Noise (MBN). Pattern recognition can be done in a nonsupervised way by Cluster Analysis defining similarity criteria. On the other hand, for supervised recognition, Discriminant Analysis looks for classifying new samples in known groups, a priori, by means of classification rules created for these known sample groups. Two detection and classification cases were studied by MBN. The MBN is a magnetic phenomenon generated by sudden changes in magnetization of ferromagnetic materials, when these materials are subjected to variable magnetic fields. These changes are related to material microstructure as well as to the presence of elastic stresses (tension and compression). In the first studied case, the present study searches identifying broken wires in risers through measurements of mechanical strain. In the second case, the study classifies different thermal treatments in AISI 420 steel samples. Regarding the analysis of structural integrity of risers, firstly the reduction of data dimensionality was obtained via Analysis of Main Components and, later, Cluster Analysis was performed. Concerning the classification problem of steel samples, the Fisher Linear Discriminant Analysis and the Quadratic Analysis were used. Analysis results showed that Multivariate Statistic Techniques give rise to tools very appropriated for increasing the efficiency of inspection both in the Magnetic NDE area in general, and MBN in particular.