This dissertation discusses three questions of development and environmental economics. First, it assesses the impact of mineral mining on the health and wealth of households in local communities across 44 developing countries, using micro data. Secondly, it presents evidence from a randomized controlled trial on the cost-shared provision of well-water tests for arsenic. Finally, it analyzes measurement error in a satellite night light data product widely used in development research, and investigates the scope for using the data in very high spatial resolution.

Reducing population exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs), a known carcinogen and highly toxic metalloid of great public health concern, remains an ongoing challenge worldwide and in the United States (US). In the US, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulates the maximum contaminant level (MCL) for total arsenic in public drinking water supplies through the Safe Drinking Water Act. In 2001, the US EPA implemented the Final Arsenic Rule, which lowered the MCL for arsenic in public drinking water supplies from 50 to 10 µg/L. Reductions in iAs exposure and subsequent related disease associated with this important regulatory change have not been quantified. Currently, no national-level exposure estimates of iAs drinking water exposure are available for US residents reliant on public drinking water. There is a critical need to identify susceptible subgroups of the US population who remain at risk for elevated iAs drinking water exposure. This dissertation aimed to quantify the reduction in drinking water iAs exposure resulting from the US EPA MCL regulatory change, to estimate drinking water iAs exposure for US residents reliant on public drinking water, to identify susceptible subgroups across the US whose water iAs remains high, and to determine if iAs exposure was associated with heart disease mortality in the general US population. Chapter 1 provides background information necessary to contextualize the work contained in this dissertation. In Chapter 2, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis of dietary sources of iAs exposure in the Strong Heart Family Study, a cohort of American Indian adults followed primarily for cardiovascular disease, using a self-reported food frequency questionnaire and urinary iAs measurements. Self-reported intake of rice, organ meat, processed meat, and non-alcoholic drinks was associated with increased urinary iAs concentrations. Diet alone explained only 3% of total variability in urinary iAs concentrations, indicating that the majority of iAs exposure for SHFS participants occurs from drinking water. Second, (in Chapter 3), we explored trends in water iAs exposure in the general US population associated with the EPA’s MCL change using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2003-2014, separately for participants reliant on public drinking water vs. private well water (which is not subject to US EPA regulation). We estimated that implementation of the new US EPA MCL was associated with a 17% reduction in drinking water iAs exposure for all participants reliant on public drinking water; the corresponding reduction was 32% for Mexican-American participants. No reduction was observed for participants reliant on private wells. Third (in Chapter 4), we estimated drinking water iAs exposure at the community water system and county-level across the entire US from 2006-2011 using the US EPA’s Six Year Review of Contaminant Occurrence database. We estimated that nationwide public drinking water iAs concentrations decreased by 8.5% and 21.6% at the 80th and 99th percentiles of the water iAs distribution in accordance with the MCL implementation, with significant differences across US subgroups. Greater decreases in iAs concentrations were reported for systems reliant on groundwater, systems serving smaller populations, and systems in the Northeast, Central Midwest, and Southwestern regions of the US. Susceptible subgroups whose public drinking water iAs exposure remains high include populations served by small community water systems reliant on groundwater, communities in the Southwestern US, Semi-Urban, Hispanic communities, and Rural, American Indian communities. Fourth (in Chapter 5), we assessed six-year average arsenic concentrations in community water systems exclusively serving correctional facilities in the US (e.g. prisons, jails, detention centers) compared to other community water systems. Average arsenic concentrations were twice as high in correctional facility community water systems located in the Southwest (6.41 µg/L, 95% CI 3.48, 9.34) compared to all other community water systems in the Southwest (3.11 µg/L, 95% CI 2.97, 3.24). Over a quarter of correctional facility systems in the Southwest reported a six-year average arsenic concentration exceeding the 10 µg/L MCL. Persons incarcerated in the Southwestern US were at disproportionate risk of drinking water arsenic exposure and related disease from 2006-2011. Fifth (in Chapter 6), we multiply imputed urinary arsenic concentrations below the limit of detection (LOD) in NHANES 2003-2016 using a Bayesian Tobit regression model. Epidemiological analyses of urinary arsenic data in NHANES are limited by the relatively high analytical LODs and large proportion of participants with undetectable values. Distributions of urinary arsenic originally reported in NHANES, which replace values below the LOD with the LOD divided by the square root of two, likely overestimate iAs exposure at the lowest exposure levels and may introduce significant bias. Bayesian-multiply imputed datasets may improve the assessment of iAs exposure in cohorts with high analytical LODs for arsenic species. Finally (in Chapter 7), we evaluated the association between urinary iAs concentrations (internal dose) and heart disease mortality as recorded in the National Death Index in NHANES 2003-2014 participants. We found a positive but non-significant prospective association between increasing iAs exposure and heart disease mortality for all participants (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% CI 0.77, 1.70), and a significant positive association for non-Hispanic white participants using flexible spline models. Geometric mean ratios of iAs exposure were higher among cases compared to non-cases, especially for Mexican-American participants (1.30, 95% CI 0.90, 1.88). These findings further support the potential association between low- to moderate- iAs exposure and cardiovascular disease in the US population, and indicate that further high-quality prospective studies of Hispanic and Latino Americans are needed to investigate the potential increased susceptibility of Mexican-Americans to iAs-related cardiovascular disease. Taken together, these studies suggest that while the implementation of the US EPA’s 10 µg/L MCL has reduced drinking water arsenic exposure for many Americans reliant on public drinking water systems, these reductions were not uniform across all US populations. Populations who remain at risk of elevated drinking water arsenic exposure include those reliant on domestic wells, those located in the Southwest, persons incarcerated in the Southwest, tribal communities, and Hispanic communities. Further high-quality epidemiologic research is needed to evaluate the association between low- to moderate iAs exposure and cardiovascular disease in these populations. Stronger federal regulations, targeted compliance enforcement and technical assistance, and other public health interventions are needed to reduce drinking water arsenic exposure in these communities.

Inorganic arsenic is a potent carcinogen and toxicant associated with numerous adverse health outcomes, and is number one on the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry Substance Priority List. Uranium is also a carcinogen and nephrotoxicant, however health effects at levels experienced by general populations is unclear. Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (As) and uranium (U) in the United States (US) occurs from unregulated private wells and federally regulated community water systems (CWSs). Geogenic arsenic contamination typically occurs in groundwater as opposed to surface water supplies. Groundwater is a major source for many CWSs in the US. Although the US Environmental Protection Agency sets the maximum contaminant level (MCL enforceable since 2006: 10 µg/L) for arsenic in CWSs, private wells are not federally regulated. The contribution of drinking water from private wells and regulated CWSs to total inorganic arsenic and uranium exposure is not clear.In the United States (US), type 2 diabetes (T2D) affects approximately 37.3 million people (11.3% of the population), with the highest burden in American Indian communities. Toxic metal exposures have been identified as risk factors of T2D. Most studies rely on biomarkers, which could be affected by early disease processes. Studies directly measuring metals in drinking water in US populations have been limited. In Chapter 2, we evaluated county-level associations between modeled values of the probability of private well arsenic exceeding 10 µg/L and CWS arsenic concentrations for 2,231 counties in the conterminous US, using time invariant private well arsenic estimates and CWS arsenic estimates for two time periods. Nationwide, county-level CWS arsenic concentrations increased by 8.4 µg/L per 100% increase in the probability of private well arsenic exceeding 10 µg/L for 2006 – 2008 (the initial compliance monitoring period after MCL implementation), and by 7.3 µg/L for 2009 – 2011 (the second monitoring period following MCL implementation) (1.1 µg/L mean decline over time). Regional differences in this temporal decline suggest that interventions to implement the MCL were more pronounced in regions served primarily by groundwater. The strong association between private well and CWS arsenic in Rural, American Indian, and Semi Urban, Hispanic counties suggests that future research and regulatory support are needed to reduce water arsenic exposures in these vulnerable subpopulations. This comparison of arsenic exposure values from major private and public drinking water sources nationwide is critical to future assessments of drinking water arsenic exposure and health outcomes. In Chapter 3, we aimed to determine the association between drinking water arsenic estimates and urinary arsenic concentrations in the 2003-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We evaluated 11,088 participants from the 2003-2014 NHANES cycles. For each participant, we assigned private well and CWS arsenic levels according to county of residence using estimates previously derived by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Geological Survey. We used recalibrated urinary dimethylarsinate (rDMA) to reflect the internal dose of estimated water arsenic by applying a previously validated, residual-based method that removes the contribution of dietary arsenic sources. We compared the adjusted geometric mean ratios and corresponding percent change of urinary rDMA across tertiles of private well and CWS arsenic levels, with the lowest tertile as the reference. Comparisons were made overall and stratified by census region and race/ethnicity. Overall, the geometric mean of urinary rDMA was 2.52 (2.30, 2.77) µg/L among private well users and 2.64 (2.57, 2.72) µg/L among CWS users. Urinary rDMA was highest among participants in the West and South, and among Mexican American, Other Hispanic, and Non-Hispanic Other participants. Urinary rDMA levels were 25% (95% confidence interval (CI): 17-34%) and 20% (95% CI: 12-29%) higher comparing the highest to the lowest tertile of CWS and private well arsenic, respectively. The strongest associations between water arsenic and urinary rDMA were observed among participants in the South, West, and among Mexican American and Non-Hispanic White and Black participants. Both private wells and regulated CWSs are associated with inorganic arsenic internal dose as reflected in urine in the general U.S. population. In Chapter 4, our objective was to evaluate regional and sociodemographic inequalities in water arsenic exposure reductions associated with the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Final Arsenic Rule, which lowered the arsenic maximum contaminant level to 10 µg/L in public water systems. We analyzed 8,544 participants from the 2003-14 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) reliant on community water systems (CWSs). We estimated arsenic exposure from water by recalibrating urinary dimethylarsinate (rDMA) to remove smoking and dietary contributions. We evaluated mean differences and corresponding percent reductions of urinary rDMA comparing subsequent survey cycles to 2003-04 (baseline), stratified by region, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and tertile of CWS arsenic assigned at the county level. The overall difference (percent reduction) in urine rDMA was 0.32 µg/L (9%) among participants with the highest tertile of CWS arsenic, comparing 2013-14 to 2003-04. Declines in urinary rDMA were largest in regions with the highest water arsenic: the South [0.57 µg/L (16%)] and West [0.46 µg/L, (14%)]. Declines in urinary rDMA levels were significant and largest among Mexican American [0.99 µg/L (26%)] and Non-Hispanic White [0.25 µg/L (10%)] participants. Reductions in rDMA following the Final Arsenic Rule were highest among participants with the highest CWS arsenic concentrations, supporting legislation can benefit those who need it the most, although additional efforts are still needed to address remaining inequalities in CWS arsenic exposure. In Chapter 5, we examined the contribution of water As and U to urinary biomarkers in the Strong Heart Family Study (SHFS), a prospective study of American Indian communities, and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a prospective study of racially/ethnically diverse urban US communities. We assigned residential zip code-level estimates in CWSs (µg/L) and private wells (90th percentile probability of As >10 µg/L) to up to 1,485 and 6,722 participants with dietary information and urinary biomarkers in the SHFS (2001-2003) and MESA (2000-2002; 2010-2011), respectively. Total inorganic As exposure was estimated as the sum of inorganic and methylated species in urine (urine As). We used linear mixed-effects models to account for participant clustering and removed the effect of dietary sources of As and U via regression adjustment. The median (interquartile range) urine As was 5.32 (3.29, 8.53) and 6.32 (3.34, 12.48) µg/L for SHFS and MESA, respectively, and urine U was 0.037 (0.014, 0.071) and 0.007 (0.003, 0.018) µg/L. In a mixed-effects meta-analysis of pooled effects across the SHFS and MESA, urine As was 11% (95% CI: 3, 20%) higher and urine U was 35% (5, 73%) higher per 2-fold higher CWS As and U, respectively. In the SHFS, CWS and private well As explained >40% of variability in urine As and CWS U explained >20% of urine U. In MESA, CWS As and U explained >50% of urine As and U. Water from public water supplies and private wells represents a major contributor to inorganic As and U exposure in diverse US populations. In Chapter 6, we examined the association of arsenic exposures in community water systems (CWS) and private wells with T2D incidence in the Strong Heart Family Study (SHFS), a prospective cohort of American Indian communities, and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a prospective study of racially/ethnically diverse urban US communities, to evaluate direct associations between drinking water metal exposures and T2D risk. We evaluated adults in the SHFS free of T2D at baseline (2001-2003) and followed through 2010, with available private well and CWS arsenic (N=1,791) estimates assigned by residential zip code. We also evaluated adults in the MESA free of T2D at baseline (2000-2002) and followed through 2019, with available zip code level CWS arsenic (N=5,577) estimates. We used mixed effects Cox models to account for clustering by family and residential zip code, with adjustment for sex, baseline age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, and education. T2D incidence in the SHFS was 24.4 cases per 1,000 people (mean follow-up 5.6 years) and T2D incidence in MESA was 11.2 per 1,000 people (mean follow-up 6.0 years). In a meta-analysis of pooled effects across the SHFS and MESA, the corresponding hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per 2-fold increase in water arsenic was 1.09 (1.01, 1.16). Differences were observed by BMI category and sex; positive associations were observed among participants with BMI <25 kg/m2 and among female participants. In categorical analyses, >10% probability of private well arsenic (<10% reference) in the SHFS and >1 µg/L of CWS arsenic (<1 µg/L reference) in MESA were associated with increased diabetes risk. Low to moderate water arsenic levels in unregulated private wells and federally regulated CWSs were associated with T2D incidence in the SHFS and MESA. In supplementary analyses, we also observed that CWS uranium was associated with T2D risk among SHFS and MESA participants with BMI<25 kg/m2.

Heart Failure is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. The identification of risk factors of heart failure in healthy individuals is key to improve disease prevention and reduce mortality. Metals exposures are recently established cardiovascular disease risk factors, but their association with heart failure remains understudied and prospective studies across diverse populations are needed. Metals are widespread in the environment, some of the sources of exposure include drinking water, air, and soil contamination. Some population groups, particularly American Indian, Hispanic/Latino, and Black communities in the United States are exposed to higher levels of environmental metals as a result of sociodemographic and structural factors including structural racism. These population groups suffer a higher burden of heart failure compared to White populations. Importantly, the burden of heart failure in American Indian communities in the United States, a population group with high rates of diabetes, hypertension, and other cardiovascular disease risk factors, is underreported, and key risk factors of heart failure in these population groups remain understudied. This dissertation characterized relevant risk factors of heart failure in American Indian participants from the Strong Heart Study. Towards the goal of identifying novel preventable cardiovascular disease risk factors, it comprehensively assessed the sources of exposure and biomarkers for multiple non-essential and essential metals with a focus on characterizing drivers of disparities in drinking water metal concentrations. Then, it evaluated the role of exposure to multiple metals (individually and as a mixture) on the risk of heart failure and overall cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality, leveraging three geographically and racially and ethnically diverse population-based cohorts: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), the Strong Heart Study (SHS), and the Hortega cohort. Last, it identified and evaluated new opportunities for the mitigation of metal toxicity through nutritional interventions. Chapter 1 provides background information about heart failure epidemiology and pathophysiology, the role of environmental metals on cardiovascular disease, and introduces the dissertation framework necessary to contextualize the work included in this dissertation. Chapter 2 estimated the incidence of heart failure in the SHS, a large epidemiological cohort of American Indian adults from Arizona, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and South Dakota, followed from 1989-1991 through 2019. A parsimonious heart failure-risk prediction equation that accounts for relevant cardiovascular risk factors affecting American Indian communities was developed. The incidence rate of heart failure was 9.5 per 1,000 person-years, with higher rates across participants with diabetes, hypertension, and albuminuria. Significant predictors for heart failure risk at 5 and 10 years included age, smoking, albuminuria, and previous myocardial infarction. Diabetes diagnosis and higher levels of HbA1c were significant predictors of risk at 10 and 28 years. Models achieved a high discrimination performance (C-index (95%CI): 0.81 (0.76, 0.84) at 5 years, 0.78 (0.75, 0.81) at 10 years, and 0.77 (0.74, 0.78) up to 28 years), and some associations varied across HF subtypes. Chapter 3 developed a comprehensive overview of the main sources and routes of exposure, biotransformation, and biomarkers of exposure and internal dose for 12 metals/metalloids, including 8 non-essential elements (arsenic, barium, cadmium, lead, mercury, nickel, tin, uranium) and 4 essential elements (manganese, molybdenum, selenium, and zinc), providing a set of recommendations for the use and interpretation of metal biomarkers in epidemiological studies. Chapter 4 conducted the first nationwide geospatial analysis identifying racial/ethnic inequalities in arsenic and uranium concentrations in public drinking water across the conterminous United States using geospatial models. The association between county-level racial/ethnic composition and public water arsenic and uranium concentrations (2000-2011)was assessed. Higher proportions of Hispanic/Latino and American Indian/Alaskan Native residents were associated with 6% (95% CI: 4-8%), and 7% (3-11%) higher levels of arsenic, and 17% (13-22%), and 2% (-4-8%), higher levels of uranium, respectively, in public drinking water, after accounting for relevant social and geological indicators. Higher county-level proportions of non-Hispanic Black residents were associated with higher arsenic and uranium in the Southwest, where concentrations of these contaminants are high. These findings identified the key role of structural racism as driver of drinking water metal concentrations inequalities. Chapter 5 evaluated the prospective association between urinary metal levels, a established biomarker of internal dose, and incident heart failure across three geographically and ethnically/racially diverse cohorts: MESA and SHS in the United States, and the Hortega Study in Spain. These findings consistently identified significant associations across cohorts for cadmium (pooled hazard ratio: 1.15 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.24), tungsten (1.07 (1.02, 1.12)), copper (1.31 (1.18, 1.45)), molybdenum (1.13 (1.05, 1.22)), and zinc (1.22 (1.14, 1.32))). Higher levels of urinary metals analyzed as a mixture were significantly associated with increased incident heart failure risk in MESA and SHS, and non-significantly increased in the Hortega Study, which has a smaller number of events. Chapter 6 assessed the prospective association of urinary metals with incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in MESA, including a total of 6,599 participants at baseline (2000-2001), followed through 2019. Significant associations between higher levels of urinary cadmium, tungsten, uranium, cobalt, copper, and zinc, and higher risk of CVD and all-cause mortality were identified. A positive linear dose-response was identified for cadmium and copper with both endpoints. The adjusted HRs (95%CI) for an interquartile range (IQR) increase in the mixture of these six urinary metals and the correspondent 10-year survival probability difference (95% CI) were 1.29 (1.11, 1.56), and -1.1% (-2.0, -0.05) for incident CVD and 1.66 (1.47, 1.91), and -2.0% (-2.6, -1.5) for all-cause mortality. Chapter 7 investigated the effects of a nutritional intervention with folic acid (FA) and B12 supplementation on arsenic methylation in children exposed to high levels of drinking water arsenic in Bangladesh. The randomized controlled trial included a total of 240 children 8-11 years old. Compared to placebo, the supplementation group experienced a significant increase in the concentration of blood DMA, a non-toxic arsenic metabolite, by 14.0% (95%CI: 5.0, 25.0) and blood secondary methylation index (DMAs/MMAs) by 0.19 (95%CI: 0.09, 0.35). Similarly, there was a 1.62% (95%CI: 0.43, 2.83) significantly higher urinary %DMAs and -1.10% (CI: -1.73, -0.48) significantly lower urinary %MMAs compared to placebo group after 1 week. These results confirmed that FA+B12 supplementation increases arsenic methylation in children as reflected by decreased MMAs and increased DMAs in blood and urine. Altogether, the findings presented in this dissertation consistently identify the role of urinary metals as robust risk factors of heart failure, overall cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality across diverse populations. With consistent findings across multiple assessments of the dose response relationship and mixture approaches. Additionally, this dissertation work contributes to address disparities in environmental exposures and heart failure burden, respectively, by characterizing the impact of structural racism drinking water metal exposures disparities and identifying relevant risk factors of heart failure in American Indian populations who are historically underrepresented in epidemiological cohorts. Last, this dissertation identifies the role of folic acid and B12 supplementation to reduce arsenic toxicity in children. These findings have direct clinical and policy implications, as they can inform the development of novel clinical guidelines to incorporate environmental factors in clinical risk prediction, and they can inform drinking water regulation and infrastructure efforts to support at risk communities and inform population-level nutritional recommendations and policies.

In the United States, over 90 contaminants in community water supplies (CWS) are regulated based on maximum contaminant limits (MCLs) set by the Environmental Protection Agency under the Safe Drinking Water Act. These limits are crucial to the health of over 90% of the US population who rely on CWS for their drinking water. Despite advancements in safer water, questions remain about the potential role of prolonged exposures to contaminants at sub-regulatory levels in chronic diseases. Historically, conducting epidemiologic studies of drinking water exposures in the United States has been challenging due to the fragmented availability of CWS service areas and contaminant information, which varies depending on each state’s efforts. This dissertation attempts to overcome some of these barriers by collaborating with long-standing institutes in California to evaluate the relationship between drinking water contaminants (arsenic, uranium, and trihalomethanes) and the risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a large prospective cohort. The California Teachers Study (CTS) cohort is comprised of over 130,000 women living across the state and followed for health outcomes, including CVD and CKD, since enrollment (1995-1996). The California Office of Environmental Health Hazard and Assessment (OEHHA) houses some of the most detailed information about CWS available in the United States. With their partnership, we consolidated three decades (1990-2020) worth of yearly contaminant data from CWS. Thanks to a statewide effort that gathered service boundary data from local agencies, we were able to identify CWS serving participants’ residential addresses. Ultimately, these efforts produced new drinking water exposure data available in the CTS cohort, accessible for the analyses of associated health outcomes. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the novel contributions and methods of this dissertation, and background knowledge about the three common drinking water contaminants under study—arsenic, uranium, and trihalomethanes. The three epidemiologic studies included in this dissertation were designed to evaluate the relationship between these contaminants and health outcomes, selected based on previous toxicologic evidence. To this end, we detail current knowledge on the relationships between a) arsenic and CVD, b) uranium and arsenic and CKD, and c) trihalomethanes and CKD. Chapter 2 details our efforts to construct residential histories of CTS participants using address data collected throughout follow-up (1995-2018). Environmental epidemiologic studies using geospatial data often estimate exposure at a participant’s residence upon enrollment, but mobility during the exposure period can lead to misclassification. We aimed to mitigate this issue using address records that have been self-reported and collected from the US Postal Service, LexisNexis, Experian, and California Cancer Registry. We identified records of the same address based on geo-coordinate distance (≤250m) and street name similarity. We consolidated addresses, prioritizing those confirmed by participants during follow-up questionnaires, and estimating the duration lived at each address using dates associated with records (e.g., date-first-seen). During 23-years of follow-up, about half of participants moved (48%, including 14% out-of-state). We observed greater mobility among younger women, Hispanic or Latina women, and those in metropolitan and lower socioeconomic status areas. The cumulative proportion of in-state movers remaining eligible for analysis was 21%, 32%, and 41% at 5-, 10-, and 20-years post-enrollment, respectively. Using self-reported information collected 10 years after enrollment, we correctly identified 94% of self-identified movers and 95% of non-movers as having moved or not moved from their enrollment address. This dataset provides a foundation for estimating long-term exposure to drinking water contaminants evaluated in this dissertation, and supports other epidemiologic studies of diverse environmental exposures and health outcomes in this cohort. Chapter 3 details our first epidemiologic analysis evaluating the relationship between long-term arsenic exposure from CWS and CVD risk in the CTS cohort. Inorganic arsenic in drinking water is linked to atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease. However, risk is uncertain at lower levels present in CWS, currently regulated at the federal maximum contaminant level of 10µg/L. Using statewide healthcare administrative records from enrollment through follow-up (1995-2018), we identified fatal and nonfatal cases of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and CVD (including stroke). Participants’ residential addresses were linked to a network of CWS boundaries and annual arsenic concentrations (1990-2020). Most participants resided in areas served by a CWS (92%). Exposure was calculated as a time-varying, 10-year moving average up to a participant’s event, death, or end of follow-up. Using multivariable-adjusted Cox models, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for the risk of IHD or CVD. We evaluated arsenic exposure categorized by concentration thresholds relevant to regulation standards (<1.00, 1.00-2.99, 3.00-4.99, 5.00-9.99, ≥10µg/L) and continuously using a log2-transformation (i.e., per doubling). We also stratified analyses by age, body mass index (BMI), and smoking status. This analysis included 98,250 participants, 6,119 IHD cases and 9,936 CVD cases. The HRs for IHD at concentration thresholds (ref:<1µg/L) were 1.06 (95%CI=1.00-1.12) at 1.00-2.99µg/L, 1.05 (95%CI=0.94-1.17) at 3.00-4.99µg/L, 1.20 (95%CI=1.02-1.41) at 5.00-9.99µg/L, and 1.42 (95%CI=1.10-1.84) at ≥10µg/L. HRs for every doubling of wAs exposure were 1.04 (95%CI=1.02-1.06) for IHD and 1.02 (95%CI=1.01-1.04) for CVD. We observed statistically stronger risk among those ≤55 versus >55 years at enrollment (pinteraction=0.006 and 0.012 for IHD and CVD, respectively). This study demonstrates that long-term arsenic exposure from CWS, at and below the regulatory limit, may increase cardiovascular disease risk, particularly IHD. Chapter 4 details our second epidemiologic analysis evaluating uranium and arsenic from CWS and CKD risk in the CTS cohort. Metals/metalloids in drinking water, including uranium and arsenic, have been linked to adverse kidney effects and may contribute to CKD risk, but few epidemiologic studies exist. Annual average concentrations of uranium and arsenic were obtained for CWS serving participants’ residential address(es). We calculated participant’s average exposure from enrollment in 1995 to 2005. CKD cases were ascertained from inpatient hospitalization records beginning in 2005, once diagnostic coding was adopted, through 2018. Our analysis included 6,185 moderate to end stage CKD cases among 88,185 women. We evaluated exposure categorized by concentration thresholds relevant to regulatory standards, up to ½ the current regulatory limit (uranium=15µg/L; arsenic=5µg/L), and continuously on the log scale per interquartile range (IQR). We used mixed-effect multivariable-adjusted Cox models to estimate HRs and 95%CIs of CKD by uranium or arsenic levels. We also conducted analyses stratified by risk factors and comorbidities. Exposures at the 50th (25th, 75th) percentiles were 3.1 (0.9, 5.6) µg/L for uranium, and 1.0 (0.6, 1.8) µg/L for arsenic. Higher uranium exposure, relative to <2µg/L, was associated with CKD risk, with HRs of 1.20 (95%CI=1.07-1.35) at 2.0-<5.0µg/L, 1.08 (95%CI=0.95-1.22) at 5.0-<10µg/L, 1.33 (95%CI=1.15, 1.54) at 10-<15µg/L, and 1.32 (95%CI=1.09-1.58) at ≥15µg/L (ptrend=0.024). We found no overall association between arsenic and CKD (log IQR; HR=1.02, 95%CI=0.98-1.07). However, risk from arsenic was statistically different by age and comorbidity status, with risk only observed among younger individuals (≤55 years), and those who developed cardiovascular disease or diabetes. Uranium exposure from drinking water below the current regulatory limit may increase CKD risk. Relatively low, chronic exposure to arsenic may affect kidney function among those with comorbidities. Chapter 5 details our third and final epidemiologic analysis evaluating trihalomethanes in residential CWS and CKD risk in the CTS cohort. Disinfection byproducts from water chlorination, including trihalomethanes (THMs), have been associated with bladder cancer and adverse birth outcomes. Despite mechanistic evidence of nephrotoxic effects, especially brominated THMs, no epidemiologic studies to date have evaluated CKD risk. This study included 89,158 women with 6,232 moderate to end stage CKD cases identified from statewide healthcare administrative records (2005-2018). Average concentrations of four THMs, including three brominated THMs, were calculated for CWS serving participants’ residential addresses from 1995-2005. We estimated HRs and 95%CIs using mixed-effect multivariable-adjusted Cox models. A g-computation mixture analysis approach was used to estimate the overall effect and relative contribution of brominated THMs, chloroform (non-brominated THM), as well as uranium and arsenic—other potentially nephrotoxic metals in CWS previously evaluated. Median (25th, 75th, 95th percentiles) were 5.5 (0.5, 24.1, 57.8) µg/L for total THMs and 2.7 (0.6, 11.3, 30.0) µg/L for brominated THMs. In flexible exposure-response models, we observed a positive relationship between total THMs and CKD risk, which was stronger for brominated THMs. The HRs (95%CIs) of CKD risk from brominated THMs at the highest two exposure categories (75th-94th, ≥95th, versus <25th) were 1.23 (1.13-1.33) and 1.43 (1.23-1.66), respectively; ptrend<0.001. Brominated THMs were the largest contributor (53%) to the overall mixture effect on CKD risk, followed by uranium (35%), arsenic (6%), and chloroform (5%). Trihalomethanes in water, in particular brominated trihalomethanes which are not regulated separately, may contribute to CKD development, even at levels below the current US regulatory limit (80µg/L). Chapter 6 concludes this dissertation by summarizing our findings, highlighting the policy implications, relevance to other populations, and discussing future directions. Recently, the US EPA has released a geospatial dataset of CWS boundaries across the country that can be used in conjunction with national contaminant data. This development underscores the growing recognition for more research on drinking water quality and health. We hope that the methods developed and used in our analyses will be informative to future studies, and that there will be opportunities for replication of our findings to better inform policy and protect the health of populations nationwide.

PhD (Environmental Sciences) / Department of Ecology and Resource Management / The presence of arsenic in groundwater has drawn worldwide attention from researchers and public health officials due to its effects on human health such as, cancer, skin thickening, neurological disorders, muscular weakness, loss of appetite and nausea. World Health Organisation (WHO) has set the limit of 10 μg/L for arsenic in drinking water in trying to reduce the effects of arsenic. This was further adopted by South African National Standard (SANS). The present study aims at evaluating arsenic concentration in selected groundwater sources around Greater Giyani Municipality in Limpopo Province and further synthesize clay based adsorbents for arsenic removal using Fe3+ and Mn2+ oxides and hexadecylammonium bromide (HDTMA-Br) cationic surfactant as modifying agents. The first section of the work presented the hydrogeochemical characteristics of groundwater in the Greater Giyani Municipality. The results showed that the pH of the samples ranges from neutral to weakly alkaline. The dominance of major anionic and cationic species was found to be in the order: HCO3 ->Cl->SO4 2->NO3 - and Na+>Mg2+>Ca2+>K+>Si4+, respectively. Hydrogeochemical facies identified in the study area include CaHCO3 (90%) and mixed CaNaHCO3 (10%) which shows the dominance of water-rock interaction. About 60% of the tested samples contains arsenic concentration above 10 μg/L as recommended by SANS and WHO. Concentration of arsenic was found to be ranging between 0.1 to 172.53 μg/L with the average of 32.21 μg/L. In the second part of this work, arsenic removal efficiency of locally available smectite rich and kaolin clay was evaluated. Results showed that the percentage As(V) removal by kaolin clay was optimum at pH 2 while the percentage As(III) removal was greater than 60% at pH 2 to 12. For smectite rich clay soils, the percentage of As(III) and As(V) removal was found to be optimum at pH between 6 and 8. The adsorption isotherm data for As(III) and As(V) removal by both clays fitted better to Freundlich isotherm. Adsorption of both species of arsenic onto the clay mineral occurred via electrostatic attraction and ion exchange mechanisms. Both clay soils could be regenerated twice using Na2CO3 as a regenerant. Kaolin clay showed a better performance and was selected for further modification. In the third section of this work, Fe-Mn bimetal oxide modified kaolin clay was successfully synthesized by precipitating Fe3+ and Mn2+ metal oxides to the interlayer surface of kaolin clay. Modification of kaolin clay increased the surface area from 19.2 m2/g to 29.8 m2/g and further v decreased the pore diameter from 9.54 to 8.5 nm. The adsorption data fitted to the pseudo second order of reaction kinetics indicating that adsorption of As(III) and As(V) occurred via chemisorption. The adsorption isotherm data was described by Langmuir isotherm models showing a maximum As(III) and As(V) adsorption capacities of 2.16 and 1.56 mg/g, respectively at a temperature of 289 K. Synthesized adsorbent was successfully reused for 6 adsorptiondesorption cycles using K2SO4 as a regenerant. Column experiments showed that maximum breakthrough volume of ≈2 L could be treated after 6 hours using 5 g adsorbent dosage. Furthermore, the concentration of Fe and Mn were within the WHO permissible limit. In the fourth part of the work kaolin clay was functionalized with hexadecyltrimethylamonium bromide (HDTMA-Br) cationic surfactant and its application in arsenic removal from groundwater was investigated. The results revealed that adsorption of As(III) and As(V) is optimum at pH range 4-8. The maximum As(III) and As(V) adsorption capacities were found 2.33 and 2.88 mg/g, respectively after 60 min contact time. Pseudo first order model of reaction kinetics described the adsorption data for As(V) better while pseudo second order model described As(III) adsorption data. The adsorption isotherm data for As(III) and As(V) fitted well to Langmuir model indicating that adsorption of both species occurred on a mono-layered surface. Adsorption thermodynamics model revealed that adsorption of As(III) and As(V) was spontaneous and exothermic. The As(III)/As(V) adsorption mechanism was ascribed to electrostatic attraction and ion exchange. The regeneration study showed that synthesized adsorbent can be used for up to 5 times. In the firth part of the work inorgano-organo modified kaolin clay was successfully synthesized through intercalation of Fe3+ and Mn2+ metal oxides and HDTMA-Br surfactant onto the interlayers of the clay mineral. The batch experiments showed that As(III) removal was optimum at pH range of 4-6, while the As(V) removal was optimum at pH range 4-8. The adsorption data for both species of arsenic showed a better fit to pseudo second order of reaction kinetics which suggest that the dominant mechanism of adsorption was chemisorption. The isotherm studies showed better fit to Langmuir isotherm model as compared to Freundlich model. The maximum adsorption capacity As(III) and As(V) at room temperature as determined by Langmuir model were found to be 7.99 mg/g and 7.32 mg/g, respectively. The thermodynamic studies for sorption of As(III) and As(V) showed negative value of ΔGᴼ and ΔHᴼ indicating that adsorption process occurred spontaneously and is exothermic in nature. The regeneration study showed that the vi inorgano-organo modified kaolin clay can be reused for up 7 adsorption-regeneration cycles using 0.01 M HCl as a regenerant. Thomas kinetic model and Yoon-Nelson model showed that the rate of adsorption increases with increasing flow rate and initial concentration and decreases with increasing of the bed mass. In conclusions, adsorbents synthesized from this work showed a better performance as compared to other adsorbents available in the literature. Among the synthesized adsorbents, inorgano-organo modified clay showed highest adsorption capacity as compared to surfactant functionalized and Fe-Mn bimetal oxides modified kaolin clay. However, all adsorbents were recommended for use in arsenic remediation from groundwater. The following recommendations were made following the findings from this study: 1) routine monitoring of arsenic in groundwater of Greater Giyani Municipality, 2) evaluating the possible link between arsenic exposure and arsenic related diseases within Giyani in order to find the extent of the problem in order to establish the population at risk, 3) The toxicity assessment for HDTMA-Br modified kaolin clay should be carried out, 4) Materials developed in the present study should be modeled and tested at the point of use for arsenic removal, and lastly, 5) this study further encourage the development of other arsenic removal materials that can be used at household level. / NRF