Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / It is often argued that women have a tendency to be more risk averse than men. This thesis looks deeper into this sophisticated relationship between women, men and money, and investigates the gender differences among U.S. hedge fund managers. Prior research has considered the relationship between mutual fund performance and fund manager characteristics focusing on age, tenure, and level of education. However, none of these previous studies have looked in depth at the hedge fund arena. I hypothesize that female fund managers take less risk and follow less extreme investment styles that remain more constant over time. This suggests that less trading by female managers takes place with lower portfolio turnover, and results in superior net returns. I expected female money managers to be less overconfident and therefore would then trade less. Despite the similarities between female and male managers, I found evidence supporting my hypothesis that gender does indeed influence the decision making process for both investors and the hedge fund management companies.

Master of Arts / Department of Economics / William F. Blankenau / The financial crisis that began in the summer of 2007 has greatly tested the abilities of central banks to counter financial instability and economic slowdown through traditional monetary policy. This paper will examine in detail the monetary response of both the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States (Fed) and the Bank of England to the turmoil in the financial markets. The Bank of England, which adopted inflation targeting after the Black Wednesday crisis in 1992, and the Fed, which has no such stated policy, allows us to compare two different monetary regimes in the aftermath of a crisis. To counter the financial crisis the Bank of England resorted to unconventional monetary policies that included expansion of liquidity easing operations and a policy of quantitative easing through purchase of debt securities. The Fed also made use of both traditional tools as well as more innovative measures to combat liquidity concerns in the financial market. A multitude of new programs was initiated by the Fed to supply liquidity to susceptible lending institutions and lower the spreads on commercial loans and securities. Overall, we find that the actions of the Bank of England and the Fed were effective in restoring stability to financial markets and preventing a prolonged economic depression. Further, the Bank of England's inflation targeting framework did not hinder its ability to respond to the crisis and there was no major divergence in the policy actions of the two central banks.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Lance J. Bachmeier / This dissertation investigates the long run and short run relationships between Saudi stock market returns and eight macroeconomic variables. We investigate the ability of these variables to predict the level and volatility of Saudi stock market returns. A wide range of Vector autoregression (VAR) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models estimated and interpreted. A Johansen-Juselius cointegration test indicates a positive long run relationship between the Saudi stock price index and the M2 money supply, bank credit, and the price of oil, and a negative long run relationship with the M1 money supply, the short term interest rate, inflation, and the U.S. stock market. An estimated vector error correction model (VECM) suggests significant unidirectional short run causal relationships between Saudi stock market returns and the money supply and inflation. The VECM also finds a significant long run causal relationship among the macroeconomic variables in the system. The estimated speed of adjustment indicates that the Saudi stock market converges to the equilibrium within half a year. Granger causality tests show no causal relationship between Saudi stock market returns and the exchange rate. Impulse response function analysis shows no significant relationship between Saudi stock market returns and the macroeconomic variables. Forecast error variance decompositions suggest that 89% of the variation in Saudi stock market returns is attributable to its own shock, which implies that Saudi stock market returns are largely independent of the macroeconomic variables in the system. Finally, a GARCH-X model indicates a significant relationship between volatility of Saudi stock returns and short run movements of macroeconomic variables. Implications of this study include the following. (i) Prediction of stock market returns becomes more difficult as the volatility of the macroeconomic variables increases in the short run. (ii) Investors should look at the systematic risks revealed by these macroeconomic variables when structuring their portfolios and diversification strategies. (iii) Policymakers should seek to minimize macroeconomic fluctuations considering the effect of macroeconomic variables changes on the stock market when formulating economic policy.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Christine Wilson / During the past two decades, there has been major consolidation in the grain handling industry. Staying competitive in today’s environment involves finding projects that add value from a strategic geographic standpoint and a revenue generation standpoint. This study examines several economic factors regarding growth opportunities of facility assets that exist in Northern Kansas, and what the associated cost structure would look like based on a business feasibility study. This study researched the county production by volume and acreage devoted to crop production as well as bid structures and freight spreads of competitors currently in the region today. It also involved researching the margin structures, and it considered a strategic decision about the size of facility that could be built on the existing margin opportunity. Several economic theories were used to derive the feasibility of this research and measure the profitability of the project. Farmer sentiment was polled and a focus group was assembled to understand the opportunity that Scoular may have in the region. The results found a region that provides a steady volume of crop production and margins that are typical of those that Scoular is experiencing in other regions of the state. The research also found the farmers of this geography, receptive to more competition entering the market place.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Bryan Schurle / Quantifying the impact of various economic events is essential for risk management in community banks. Interest rate shocks of either rapidly increasing or decreasing rates, in magnitudes of at least 200 basis points, is one of the more common risks modeled. Liquidity crises that impact deposits or loan demand can arise from either local or national economic events is another risk factor that regulators are requiring banks to quantify and plan for. Excel spreadsheets can be used to develop models to measure and quantify these risks. Simulation tools and what-if analysis using data table and scenario manager identify possible outcomes for differing interest rate scenarios, interest rate shocks and liquidity stresses. Data table was used for simulation of a stochastic model to produce a cumulative distribution function of two hundred results each on three different interest rate environments. Scenario manager was used to narrow the simulation to a certain set of expectations affecting the balance sheet of the bank and another set of expectations from an interest rate shock. Changes in the bank’s balance sheet resulting from three different commodity price expectations were modeled. An interest rate shock of four hundred basis points over a two year period was also modeled. These models are simple and cost effective. Once data are captured, the time required to develop and generate scenarios is manageable. The model can be used for a wide range of what-if alternatives as an individual bank may see fit. These models are adequate to meet present regulatory requirements for a community bank of smaller size that is not complex and does not possess a high risk profile.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / Providing a recommendation on whether to make a capacity expanding capital investment in an existing butter plant is the subject of this thesis. This is important as the success of this project will have a significant impact on the future profitability of Land O'Lakes and provide a significant home for its member's milk production. The dairy industry has undergone change over the past decades. Milk production has moved from the traditional production area of the Upper Midwest to drier, more arid areas such as California. This has led to milk price premiums in the Upper Midwest and since milk is the major input to butter manufacturing, it has become more attractive to produce butter in other areas such as California. Much of the data collected in review of the industry were obtained from the USDA. This data were used to describe the industry and focus on the number of butter plants over time, the milk productivity per cow, and the total milk production by state. It provides a clear picture of fewer bigger plants, more productive cows, and a dramatic shift in milk production to the West, primarily California. A Net Present Value (NPV) model is developed to analyze the trade off between the initial capital investment and less costly milk procurement over time. The model also considers maintenance costs, salvage values, plant startup delays, and a one time salvage value gain by shutting down an Upper Midwest plant. After the initial model is developed, sensitivity analysis is conducted, focusing on key variables such as demand growth, and the spread between California and Upper Midwest milk prices. The conclusion is that additional investment in California butter production would be profitable, earning a positive NPV and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) greater than the Land O'Lakes cost of capital. The solution is robust as they remain the same even after modeling lower demand and smaller milk price differentials. Therefore, I recommend that Land O'Lakes move ahead with this capital investment.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Michael W. Woolverton / The sheep dairy industry in the United States is small. Producers are concentrated in a few areas geographically with the greatest demand for sheep milk products located on the east and west coasts. The purpose of this analysis is to determine if a family-run sheep dairy located in Central Iowa could produce an annual profit of $40,000 without utilizing labor hired outside the family. Budgets were created and used to determine the revenues and costs of operating a sheep dairy, and producing and selling three different end products for sale: fluid milk, cheese and bars of soap. Microsoft Solver was used to determine the product mix that would maximize the total profit of the enterprise. The profit of the enterprise depends on a number of factors including the cost of feed, the number of ewes milked and the amount of milk each ewe produces. A maximum profit of $66,993 could be generated by selling 74% of the milk as fluid milk, 25% of the milk processed into cheese and 1% of the milk processed into soap. The diversification of products would help buffer the enterprise from volatility in the product markets. While the budgets show that this enterprise is profitable, local markets for these products must be identified and/or developed for the profits to be realized.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / David G. Barton / The goal of this thesis is to evaluate future financial strategies for the Garden City Co-op (GCC). The evaluation will include a standard financial analysis of historical financial information and pro forma financial projections of selected strategies. The strategies will be evaluated using management assumptions in which liquidity and solvency are proactively managed. The ultimate goal of the GCC is to return as much profit to its patron-owners as possible but at the same time provided them with the product and services they need for their own business at a competitive level. The GCC has recently experiencing unusually high profits and believes this will be the trend over the next six to eight years due to the business ventures and relationships that currently are in place to grow sales outside the Co-op's traditional trade territories. The increased revenues and profits have come primarily from profitable joint ventures, especially from a very high volume of petroleum sales to non-member patrons. The most critical relationship is member patron-owner relationship with CHS Inc., a large regional cooperative that owns two oil refineries and is the primary supplier of petroleum products to GCC. The profits being made by CHS Inc.'s fuel refineries are distributed to GCC as patronage refunds based on the volume of refined fuels purchased from them. This much larger stream of patronage refunds from CHS and other regional co-op's being distributed to GCC is causing GCC to pause and evaluate how best to move forward. The GCC has the challenge of what to do with increased earnings. Does the GCC return earnings back to its member-owners retain earnings for future investment opportunities, or do they commit them to help finance current investment opportunities? Does GCC grow its most profitable business lines, such as nonmember-nonpatron petroleum sales? Given the close relationship with CHS in terms of income distributions and equity management, including cash patronage refunds and cash equity redemptions of retained patronage refunds, and the close relationship with its own member patron-owners, is its current income distribution and equity management program sustainable under various strategies?

Master of Arts / Department of Economics / Lance J. Bachmeier / This thesis examines the properties of two short-term interest rates: the federal funds rate and the rate of return on 90-day Treasury securities (T-Bills). Findings indicate strong evidence of cointegration among the two series. This result leads us to consider whether future movements in T-bill returns are predictable using the same methods used to predict the target federal funds rate. The “Taylor Rule,” introduced by Taylor (1993), assumes the Federal Reserve considers inflation and the output gap in their deliberation of how to adjust the federal funds target rate. We do an in-sample analysis followed by an out-of-sample forecasting comparison. Findings show that, in addition to inflation and the output gap, the unemployment rate and stock market contain valuable information for forecasting future T-bill rates.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / Small scale broiler and layer production constitutes a significant part of the poultry industry in Zambia. However, the contribution of small scale enterprises to broiler production is more pronounced than layers with statistics showing 60 and 30 percent for broilers and layers, respectively. This study was carried out for the purpose of determining the economic profitability of both broiler and layer enterprises and also to evaluate their degree of attractiveness for investment. The thesis used the Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return methods to determine the economic profitability for both broiler and layer enterprises. The data used in the analyses were obtained direct from the market and additional data were extracted from the Cost of Doing Business Manual 2012, a publication of the Zambian Development Agency. Additionally, the study used a capital investment of US $50,000 for each enterprise, 25 percent opportunity cost of capital and an economic life of five years. The data were used in estimating the enterprise budgets for both broiler and layer enterprises from which income statements were generated. The enterprise budget for broiler production estimated revenue from the sale of live broiler chickens at a wholesale price while the layer enterprise budget estimated its revenue from the sale of eggs and culled hens. The sale prices used were US $5 per broiler chicken, US $3.60 per tray of eggs and US $2 per culled hen as obtaining on the market at the time. In addition, production was estimated at 60,000 broilers and 30,000 trays of eggs from 3,000 layers annually. The cost of constructing brooder houses and purchase of production equipment were the major cost components for the two enterprise budget estimates. The estimates indicated that these two cost components amounted to US $27,090 and US $21,095 for boiler and layer enterprises respectively. The other cost component was production cost and it includes the cost of labor, feed, day old chicks, marketing, vaccines, transportation, electricity, debeakers, heaters, stationery, etc. The cost of feed constituted about 65 percent of total production cost for layer enterprises and about 60 percent for broiler enterprises. The total production cost as a percentage of revenue was estimated at 80 percent and 70 percent for broiler and layer enterprises, respectively. The analyses were completed under three alternative scenarios that included optimistic, expected and pessimistic scenarios. The analyses across all scenarios show that both broiler and layer enterprises are economically viable for investment though the broiler enterprise is more economically profitable than the layer enterprise. They both show positive NPVs and IRRs in excess of the 25 percent opportunity cost of capital used in the analysis. The analysis for broiler enterprise showed a NPV of US $178,242 for the optimistic scenario, US $122,742 for the expected scenario and US $30,550 for the pessimistic scenario. Results obtained from layer enterprise analysis showed NPVs of US $72,388, US $49,260 and US $11,186 for the optimistic, expected and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Consistent with the decision rules of the NPV and IRR methods, both enterprises were found to be economically viable for investment. On a comparative basis though, the small scale broiler enterprise was found to be more attractive for investment than the small scale layer enterprise as indicated by the results of the NPVs and IRRs. The lucrative nature of the broiler enterprise and easy of management could be used as possible explanation to the current investment trends seen in the Zambian poultry industry.