Doctor of Philosophy / Economics / Steven P. Cassou / The increase in commodity prices that has taken place in the past decade or so has resulted in renewed interest in the debate about the macroeconomic consequences of such price increase. Previous studies tend to assume that all commodity price shocks are alike and advocate a “one size fit all” policy response by monetary authorities, either by means of contractionary monetary policy to alleviate inflationary pressures or doing nothing, since these shocks are believed to have insignificant economic impact. This dissertation analyses the impact of fluctuations in commodity prices on the South African economy. The first chapter studies the impact of shocks to prices of four commodities on monetary policy variables. Results show that shocks to different commodity prices have different effects on the monetary policy variables, hence rejecting the “one size fits all” policy response by monetary authorities, as some researchers have suggested. Chapter two investigates the sectorial effects of commodity price shocks. The Dutch Disease hypothesis suggests that a boom in the natural resource sector shrinks the manufacturing sector through crowding out and appreciation of the real exchange rate. South Africa is a major exporter of a large number of commodities. Using a structural VAR framework this chapter analyzes the impact of shocks to different commodity prices on the production and employment levels in the manufacturing and mining sectors in South Africa. The results show that the commodity price boom has had a positive impact on both sectors, hence the manufacturing sector did not experience signs of the Dutch disease. Chapter three examines the volatility transmission between commodity prices and nominal exchange rate in South Africa. This chapter uses conditional and realized volatility models to estimate volatility in exchange rate, gold, platinum, oil, palladium and silver prices and then employs Granger-causality, Impulse Response analysis, Variance Decomposition and Ordinary Least Squares to analyze the volatility transmission from the commodity prices to the nominal exchange rate. The results show that there is volatility transmission from commodity prices to the nominal exchange rate, hence knowing the volatility in commodity prices would improve investor’s ability to manage risk in South Africa.

Master of Agribusiness / Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / The purpose of this thesis is to analyze whether the use of automated aeration systems for reducing moisture in corn during storage provides sufficient net present value for Nebraska corn farmers. The objective is to examine if an automated aeration system provides sufficient energy savings, marketing opportunities and reduced drying costs before corn delivery to an elevator. On-the-farm corn storage has steadily increased and harvesting corn before the moisture has achieved the desired targets cost farmers in drying charges and shrink. Farmers are interested in whether automated aeration systems can remove enough moisture from grain, without over-drying the bin, without spending a large amount of time determining when to run their grain bin aeration fans. Data for this project were obtained from four privately owned 60,000 bushel grain bins outfitted with the IntelliAir™ BinManager™ automated aeration system. Moisture samples were taken from each of the trucks hauling grain to the bin and again after removal of the corn after the automated system had ran for 9 months. Energy usage, drying charges, and shrink were calculated for the initial corn moisture averages and the moisture at the time of removal. Each bin was examined using Net Present Value (NPV) analysis to determine whether the energy savings were enough to offset the initial installation cost and annual expenses of the project. After the NPV was estimated for each of the bins, a sensitivity analysis of how corn price changes and no aeration required would affect the NPV analysis. Finally, an analysis of the total costs savings of a continuously ran aeration system was compared to the automated aeration system. The conclusion of the NPV analysis was that adding an automated aeration system would be profitable under most scenarios. More studies are needed to determine the profitability of automated aeration systems in different regions, moisture inputs, and bin sizes.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / Crop insurance, in recent years, has displaced U.S. federal farm program payments as the most important safety net for net farm income. The business climate that crop insurance purchasers and providers face in the future is one of increasing premiums for producers and decreasing commissions for crop insurance companies and agents. The primary objective of this thesis is to assess the desirability of crop insurance agency acquisitions to increase market share for Farm Credit Services of America, considering the significant uncertainties in the future subsidy levels and commission levels for these products. Financial analysis and modeling crop insurance agency acquisitions is completed under a wide range of future economic and political scenarios. The wide range of assumptions, however, does contribute to a wide range of potential purchase prices and rates of return on crop insurance agency acquisitions. The crop insurance industry faces uncertainty in the future and general industry profitability will likely decline. However, an expansion strategy in a period of reduced commissions can be profitable if acquisitions are priced appropriately and can be made in locations where existing support services can be leveraged to support the acquisition.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Personal Financial Planning / Sonya L. Britt / This dissertation explores the personal financial planning risk-assessment process. Specifically, the study has five main purposes: 1. Explore the associations among independent risk-assessment variables. 2. Explore the concept that prudent financial risk-assessment goes beyond estimating an individual’s risk tolerance. 3. Explore the impact that each risk variable has on an individual’s overall Comprehensive Risk Profile (CRP). 4. Construct a comprehensive method of risk-assessment to estimate an individual’s overall risk profile. 5. Develop a weighted risk profile score and assign it to a target asset allocation model. Risk-assessment is one of the most instrumental components of the financial planning process. Financial planners and advisors have a fiduciary, as well as a suitability, responsibility to assess the level of risk individuals should bear with respect to their financial plan (Morse, 1998). Because of this, the evaluation of one’s risk profile impacts the success of an individual’s financial plan. If the risk-assessment is accurate, financial goals will have a higher likelihood of being met. To date, little research in the personal financial planning field has attempted to model financial risk-taking behavior in a way that is useful for practitioners, academics, and policy makers. The literature has tended to focus on either models of risk-taking rooted in economic utility theory, or tests of hypotheses related to the association among demographic and socioeconomic factors and risk-taking (Grable & Lytton, 1998). Traditional economic models do not fully account for the role that personal, behavioral, and environmental factors play in influencing individuals’ behavior beyond maximizing their expected utility (Hanna & Chen, 1997). Researchers have yet to develop a risk-profiling system that uses these behavioral or personal factors, to describe an individual’s financial risk-taking framework. Ultimately, the results of this study will lead to a multidimensional, comprehensive, accurate method of risk-assessment for both academic researchers, as well as practitioners. The following will serve as the empirical model for the study.

Doctor of Philosophy / Family Studies and Human Services / Duane W. Crawford Jr / Farrell J. Webb / This investigation sought to examine the role of acculturation and generational theory and influenced social and cultural practices among Saudi Arabian students who were currently residing in the United States. Theoretically, it sought to answers questions that help determine how Americanization—the adaptation and acculturation of a visiting culture to absorb and incorporate the host culture into their lives, customs, and social practices, and in this case savings behavior. A comprehensive model was developed to test the idea that living in America can and does have an influence on social and cultural practices. What was of interest in this study was whether or not these same influences could have an impact on particular cultural practices, in this case how people felt about, reacted to, and addressed the concept of savings—the stockpiling of funds for future needs. Information was gathered from a sample of over 500 Saudi Arabian students living in the United States. The model as structured was tested using SEM analytic techniques in an effort to fully explore and expose the nuanced and subtle differences among the respondents. The concept of savings behavior being influenced by Americanization as originally discussed was not substantiated by the model even though some of the indicators were within expected parameters (χ² = 217.241, p < .001; CFI = 0.839, TLI = 0.732, RMSEA = 0.034). Despite the general problems the overall model revealed that at least 17% of what was termed as savings behavior could be explained by the model. The study still retained its value because it has made inroads into an area that has not yet been explored. Future investigations should take care to find better ways to incorporate some of the cultural elements of savings behavior directly into the instrument based on the perspective of their test populations rather than assume value in and use instruments tested and normed with US samples.