Accurate and reasonable contract time is important to all aspects of a highway construction project. Unreasonably short contract times can raise the bid price, restrict qualified bidders from submitting bids, reduce the quality of the work, and increase the potential for legal disputes. Conversely, unreasonably long contract times encourage less qualified contractors to submit a bid and are a general inconvenience to the traveling public. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) recognizes this, and has recommended that all state highway agencies develop a standardized method for estimating contract performance time. To date, the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) does not have an established method. One major portion of this work is the development of the framework for a multi-level time estimating system to aid in the establishment of contract performance times. This system parallels the VDOT cost estimating process, refining estimates as design details become available along the Project Development Concurrent Engineering Process (PDCEP). Three distinct stages exist along the PDCEP that will facilitate the use of a tool for estimating contract time. Sufficient information to begin the conceptual estimate is known as the project enters the six year plan. The parametric estimate may commence as the project enters the scoping phase. Finally, details for the pre-advertisement time estimate are available upon project field inspection. The second major component of this work, the pre-advertisement estimating database system (BIDDS – Bid Item Duration Data System) was constructed during this work. BIDDS uses project information and characteristics to filter through historical performance time data, returning production data from similar projects. Production data is returned at the bid item level to assist in the estimation of production rates, for calculating activity durations. / Master of Science

The focus of this dissertation is modeling volatility in option pricing by the Black-Scholes formula. A major drawback of the formula is that the returns from assets are assumed to have constant volatility over time. The empirical evidence is overwhelmingly against it. In this dissertation, we allow random volatility for estimating call option prices by Black-Scholes formula and by Monte Carlo simulation. The Black-Scholes formula follows from an assumption that assets evolve according to a Geometric Brownian Motion with constant volatility. This dissertation allows time-varying random volatility in the Geometric Brownian Motion to outline a proof of the formula, thus addressing this drawback. To estimate option prices with the Black-Scholes, the dissertation considers its expectation with respect to two potential probability models of random volatility. Unfortunately, a closed form expression of the expectation of the formula for computing the option prices is intractable. Then the dissertation settles with using an approximation which to its credit incorporates in it the kurtosis of the probability model of random volatility. To our knowledge, option pricing methods in literature do not incorporate kurtosis information. The option pricing with random volatility is pursued for two stochastic volatility models. One model is a member of generalized auto regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH). The second is a member of Stochastic Volatility models. For each model, estimation of their parameters is outlined. Two real financial series data are then used to illustrate estimation of the option prices, and compared them with those from the Black-Scholes formula with constant volatility. Motivated by a Monte Carlo procedure in the literature for option pricing when the volatility follows a GARCH model, this dissertation lays a foundation for future research to simulate option prices when the random volatility is assumed to follow a Stochastic Volatility model instead of GARCH. / Statistics

Presently, owners are interested in evaluating the feasibility of investing in the construction of new building projects based on cost and time constraints. They need to therefore have an idea about the project construction costs, the time required to finish construction of a project in its conceptual phase, and about the implementation of feasibility study. Because due to associated risks, construction cost estimates and schedules are vital to any project. The research’s objective is to develop a methodology that can be used to create an integrated computer model that helps owners and designers generate construction cost estimates, and derive the baseline schedule for any proposed building project at its feasibility stage. All the relevant data used within the model is collected from the literature and is stored in comprehensive databases designed for this purpose. The data is based on 2011 RSMeans publications and consist of around 4,000 previously constructed projects. The model is developed in a Microsoft environment using Microsoft Excel 2007 and Microsoft Project 2007. This model uses deterministic and stochastic approaches to execute all necessary calculations for the conceptual cost estimate and baseline schedule. A deterministic approach relies on realistic data while a stochastic one relies on incorporating the uncertainty and risk available in calculating the cost and duration of any construction building project. The model is user friendly, flexible and executes all the necessary calculations quickly. The successful development of the model would help owners and investors identify the cost and baseline schedule of proposed projects at the early stages of the project life, so that they have an idea of the budget required for construction and the time needed to recover their investment.

Presently, owners are interested in evaluating the feasibility of investing in the construction of new building projects based on cost and time constraints. They need to therefore have an idea about the project construction costs, the time required to finish construction of a project in its conceptual phase, and about the implementation of feasibility study. Because due to associated risks, construction cost estimates and schedules are vital to any project. The research’s objective is to develop a methodology that can be used to create an integrated computer model that helps owners and designers generate construction cost estimates, and derive the baseline schedule for any proposed building project at its feasibility stage. All the relevant data used within the model is collected from the literature and is stored in comprehensive databases designed for this purpose. The data is based on 2011 RSMeans publications and consist of around 4,000 previously constructed projects. The model is developed in a Microsoft environment using Microsoft Excel 2007 and Microsoft Project 2007. This model uses deterministic and stochastic approaches to execute all necessary calculations for the conceptual cost estimate and baseline schedule. A deterministic approach relies on realistic data while a stochastic one relies on incorporating the uncertainty and risk available in calculating the cost and duration of any construction building project. The model is user friendly, flexible and executes all the necessary calculations quickly. The successful development of the model would help owners and investors identify the cost and baseline schedule of proposed projects at the early stages of the project life, so that they have an idea of the budget required for construction and the time needed to recover their investment.

Presently, owners are interested in evaluating the feasibility of investing in the construction of new building projects based on cost and time constraints. They need to therefore have an idea about the project construction costs, the time required to finish construction of a project in its conceptual phase, and about the implementation of feasibility study. Because due to associated risks, construction cost estimates and schedules are vital to any project. The research’s objective is to develop a methodology that can be used to create an integrated computer model that helps owners and designers generate construction cost estimates, and derive the baseline schedule for any proposed building project at its feasibility stage. All the relevant data used within the model is collected from the literature and is stored in comprehensive databases designed for this purpose. The data is based on 2011 RSMeans publications and consist of around 4,000 previously constructed projects. The model is developed in a Microsoft environment using Microsoft Excel 2007 and Microsoft Project 2007. This model uses deterministic and stochastic approaches to execute all necessary calculations for the conceptual cost estimate and baseline schedule. A deterministic approach relies on realistic data while a stochastic one relies on incorporating the uncertainty and risk available in calculating the cost and duration of any construction building project. The model is user friendly, flexible and executes all the necessary calculations quickly. The successful development of the model would help owners and investors identify the cost and baseline schedule of proposed projects at the early stages of the project life, so that they have an idea of the budget required for construction and the time needed to recover their investment.

We propose a simple adjustment to a Wald confidence interval to estimate a linear function of binomial proportions. This method is an extension to the adjusted Wald confidence intervals for proportions and their differences that have recently been proposed.

In today’s society, IT-Companies often have a hard time estimating changed requirements. This leads to that the clients’ confidence is negatively affected and is one of the main reasons why this has to be improved. The goal with this study was to find out what the most common problems regarding this issue are in IT-companies that works with agile software development. By analyzing one IT-company through a SWOT- and pareto-analysis the most common problems have been ascertained. The SWOT analysis have been created through interviews with selected employees to get a better understanding of the problems that the IT-company is facing. Furthermore was the pareto-analysis based on a survey that was sent out to many different employees to prioritize the problems. The reason why the survey was sent to different employees was to get a more objective input. The study showed that there was many different problems that needed attention. The most important problems was that the communication towards the client regarding requirements needed to be improved, better communication internally between different departments needed to be established, a method to quickly adapt and estimate change in requirements needed to be implemented and finally a method regarding witch key employees whom need to attend the planning of the program backlog. These problems have then been studied through interviews with other IT-companies and through a literature study. The conclusions that where drawn was that the client needs to be involved and updated through the whole project. Constant monitoring and communication regarding changed requirements needs to be processed and mediated. High standards needs to be set early towards the client in order to obtain as clear an image of the requirements as possible. Many different parties need to attend to the planning process for the program backlog before the start of the project. The client needs to be aware of that changed requirements will arise and that this will lead to that the first estimation may not necessarily be absolute. As long as the client is held up to date as well as participant through the whole project and problems are detected and mediated early, change in requirements should not be a huge problem. This is after all the purpose of being agile. / I dagens läge har IT-företag svårt med att estimera förändrade krav vilket medför att förtroendet hos beställaren påverkas negativt och är en av hu-vudanledningarna till att det måste förbättras. Målet med studien har varit att försöka ta reda på de vanligaste problemområdena inom agil systemut-veckling bland IT-företag med hjälp av en SWOT- och pareto-analys. SWOT-analys konstruerades av intervjuer med anställda på ett IT-företag och an-vändes för att ta reda på problemområden. Pareto-analysen användes med hjälp av en enkät som skickades ut till anställda på samma IT-företag för att prioritera problemområdena. Enkätens svar bygger på anställda från de flesta avdelningar, vilket resulterar i en objektivare syn på resultatet. Under-sökningen har visat att det finns många områden som kan förbättras. De huvudsakliga områdena som behövde förbättras var tydligare kommunikat-ion gällande kravhantering gentemot kunden, bättre kommunikation mellan avdelningarna internt i företaget, införa en metod för att snabbt estimera samt anpassa sig till förändrade krav behövde implementeras och slutligen skapa struktur gällande vilka personer som bör delta i planeringen inför program backlog. De fyra största problemområdena har sedan undersökts med hjälp av intervjuer med andra företag och genom en litteraturstudie. Slutsatsen som drogs var att kunden behöver vara involverad och uppdate-rad genom hela projektet. Konstant uppföljning och kommunikation gäl-lande förändrade krav behöver bearbetas och förmedlas. Höga krav måste sättas på kunden i början för att få en tydlig och genomarbetad förståelse för kravspecifikationen som möjligt. Många olika parter bör vara med på planeringen inför program backlog innan projektets uppstart. Kunden bör vara medveten om att förändrade krav kommer att uppstå och att detta kommer att leda till att den första estimeringen inte nödvändigtvis kommer vara absolut. Så länge kunden är uppdaterad och delaktig genom hela pro-jektet och problem upptäcks samt förmedlas tidigt bör förändrade krav inte vara ett stort problem. Det är syftet med att vara agil.

Developing accurate construction estimates is critical for electric utilities to make reliable financial plans for their future. Parametric estimating is just one of several techniques available to help estimate the cost of a construction project. Other estimating methods may have some advantages over parametric estimating in the latter stages of a project but parametric estimating is possibly the most accurate method in the very early stages of a project. This report delves into the analysis and development of a parametric equation for use primarily in the very early stages of a construction project. The result of this research is a functional equation that can be used for estimating future electric substation construction cost with a fair level of confidence. / text

The aim of this graduation work is theoretically describe and also demonstrate the practical application of the theory of credibility in the multidimensional case. This theory is one of the most frequently used methods for calculating premiums, expected claims frequency or the expected average amount of damage. In this work we describe multidimensional Bühlmann-Straub credibility model and two- dimensional model with a known distribution. For each of these models we derive credibility estimate and examples of using these estimates in practice. Both models are compared on simulated data. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

Nesta pesquisa é investigado o processo de cotação de projetos de produtos/serviços de design com foco na estimativa de tempos. Uma proposta de framework é desenvolvida pelo entendimento de como os profissionais do design têm acesso as informações de esforço necessárias para cotação de seus projetos. O escopo e objetivos desta pesquisa advém de problemas relacionados com a prática de cotação, uma vez que os profissionais do design não dispõem de uma base de dados que os oriente com relação aos tempos para execução de suas atividades. O contexto de cotação de projetos de produtos/serviços apresenta uma lacuna no ambiente do design e as demandas relacionadas foram apontadas por meio de pesquisa bibliográfica, sendo posteriormente validadas através de estudo exploratório com profissionais do design. Nessa busca pelo entendimento da cotação, primeiramente é aplicada entrevista em profundidade com designers, que resulta em um conjunto de elementos chamados de dimensões da estimativa de tempo e ditos estruturantes para a cotação de projetos. Com base nesses elementos, um conjunto de hipóteses é elaborado e avaliado através de uma survey, veiculada nacionalmente, obtendo 427 respostas válidas. O framework proposto atuará sobre a variável “tempo” e disponibilizará um conjunto de opções de Redes de Projetos para desenvolvimento de produtos e/ou serviços, destacando, dentre as disponíveis, as boas práticas para as diversas atividades do Design. Para um aprimoramento contínuo das práticas registradas, será utilizada a abordagem de sistemas dinâmicos e para assegurar que as atividades do design possam ser expressas computacionalmente, para posterior comparação, será considerada a aplicação de uma ontologia das atividades do design. / In this research the process of quotation of products/services projects in the design domain is investigated focusing time estimation. A framework proposal is developed by understanding how design professionals estimate the information of effort needed to quote their projects. The scope and objectives of this research arise from problems related to the practice of quotation, since the design professionals do not have a database that guides them in relation to the times for carrying out their activities. The context of quotation of product/service projects presents a gap in the design environment and the related demands were pointed out through bibliographic research, and later validated through an exploratory study with design professionals. In the search for an understanding of the quotation process, it was, firstly applied an in-depth interview with designers, which resulted in a set of elements called structuring for time estimation and, therefore, for the quotation of projects. Based on these elements, a set of hypotheses was elaborated and evaluated through a survey, carried nationally, obtaining 427 valid answers. The proposed framework will act on the variable "time" and will make available a set of Project Network options for the development of products and/or services, highlighting, among the available ones, good practices for the various Design Activities. For a continuous improvement of the registered practices, the approach of Dynamic Systems will be used and to ensure that the activities of the design can be computationally expressed, for later comparison, will be considered the application of an ontology of the design activities.