In June 2016, the United Kingdom held its EU referendum, colloquially known as Brexit, in which the people of the island nation voted on whether their country should remain a member of or leave the European Union. This thesis investigates what economic variables may have lain behind the majority outcome of a given voting area (or district) and to what degree they may have impacted it. A logistic regression is conducted primarily on referendum and election data from the Electoral Commission, census data from the Office for National Statistics, and political leaning scores as quantified by the Manifesto Project. The resulting model, which exhibits a hit ratio of 92 percent correct predictions, shows that age, education, national identity, political leaning, irreligion, and unemployment have significant correlations with the majority Brexit outcome of a district. On the other hand, population, health, and income variables do not have statistically significant effects; however, poor health, on average, does seem to have a large positive effect on the odds when taking relative sample size into account.

英國於1973年正式加入歐洲統合而成爲歐體會員國，至2016年6月23日公投決定脫歐，身為歐盟第二大經濟國，43年的關係已確定要分手。 歐盟經濟和社會政策的核心總結起來為四大自由-包括商品、資金、人員及服務，因此歐元及申根條約為其支柱，可是自歐債危機、敘利亞難民以及恐怖攻擊後，頓時令這兩大支柱受到挑戰，多種因素讓英國認為與歐盟的統合已經走到「弊大於利」，因此選擇說再見的時候。 本研究循歷史發展探討英國與歐盟間之競合，並以互賴理論，自英國加入歐盟之利益考量，脫歐公投之背景及分析脫歐派與留歐派雙方之立場，就經貿、就業機會、會費預算、歐債危機、移民、邊境管控等面向分析，以及脫歐後對於英國及歐盟之影響。也因歐盟「中央集權化」的趨勢下，英國認為對於法規、財政治理、移民管控自主權的喪失，而以拿回主權為訴求。 自英國決定脫歐後，英國首相梅伊(Theresa Mary May)於今(2017)年也已提出了脫歐計畫白皮書，闡明將完全的脫離歐盟，日後雙方的談判仍是漫長艱難。 從英國脫歐到川普當選都顯示出反全球化思潮、種族民族主義、反對向歐盟等超國家組織讓渡主權，此股風潮正在改變歐美政治，因此期藉由本研究，能初探其原因。 / In 1973, the United Kingdom officially joined European integration and became a member of the European Community. In June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a public vote for Brexit and decided to leave the European Union (EU). As the second largest economy in the EU, the United Kingdom is determined to terminate the 43-year relationship with the EU. The EU economic and social policy core contents comprise four basic freedoms, namely, goods, capital, people, and services. Euro and the Schengen Agreement are the two pillars supporting the EU. However, the European debt crisis, Syrian refugees, and terrorist attacks have affected the stability of the two pillars. Various factors cause British people to believe that it is unworthy of continuing European integration because the United Kingdom benefits from the EU at a cost of losing more. This study investigates the history of coopetition between the United Kingdom and the EU and uses interdependence theory to analyse the economic consideration of the United Kingdom to join the EU, the context of the Brexit vote, and the viewpoints of advocates and opposition for remaining in the EU. We also analyse different dimensions, including trade, job opportunity, the EU membership fee, European debt crisis, immigrants, and border control, as well as the effect of Breixt on both the UK itself and the EU. In addition, because of the centralization trend of the EU, the United Kingdom claims to retrieve the losing autonomy of legal regulation, fiscal governance, and immigration control. After the decision of leaving the EU was determined, the UK Prime Minister Theresa Mary May proposed a Brexit White Paper in 2017, declaring that the United Kingdom will leave the EU completely. Long and complicated negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU are expected. From the Brexit issue to Trump elected as the US president, these events reveal a trend of antiglobalisation, ethnic nationalism, and refusal to yield sovereignty to supranational organisations such as the EU. This trend is changing the politics in the Europe and the United States; thus, the present study is conducted to preliminarily identify the rationale behind this trend.