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Spatial modelling of woodsmoke concentrations and health risk associated with residential wood burning.Lightowlers, Christy 08 December 2008 (has links)
Within the context of global climate change and soaring energy prices, people are
searching for inexpensive and renewable sources of energy; therefore, burning wood for
home heating is increasing. Woodsmoke contains substances known to harm human
health and is a major contributor to air pollution in many parts of the world; yet there is
limited research into the health effects of woodsmoke and existing research suffers from
methodological constraints. As a result, there is interest in producing robust woodsmoke
exposure estimates for health research and air quality management purposes. Studying
health and the environment is inherently spatial; however, research related to air pollution
and health tends to be aspatial. As investigators begin to understand the influence of
spatial processes on research findings, the importance of adopting a spatial approach to
modelling exposure and health risk is becoming apparent. This thesis describes a spatially
explicit model for predicting fine particulate matter (PM2.5) attributable to woodsmoke
from residential heating in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. Spatially resolved
measurements of PM2.5 were collected for 32 evenings during the winter heating seasons
of 2004/05, 2005/06, 2006/07 using a nephelometer installed in a passenger vehicle.
Positional data were collected concurrently using a Global Positioning System (GPS).
Levoglucosan, a chemical unique to woodsmoke, was measured to confirm the presence
of woodsmoke in the measured PM2.5. The spatial scale for the analysis of woodsmoke
data was determined using semivariograms to identify the maximum distance of spatial
dependence in the data which typically occurred near 2700m. Different spatial
approaches for modelling woodsmoke concentrations were evaluated both qualitatively in
terms of transferability, meeting statistical assumptions, and potential for exposure
misclassification; and quantitatively to assess the association between the model’s
predicted PM2.5 concentrations and observed PM2.5. The baseline model characterized
exposure based on the PM2.5 value from the closest fixed monitor (R=0.51, α=0.05). The
Krigged model produced a seasonal average surface based on nephelometer
measurements and showed the weakest performance (R=0.25, α=0.05). The regression
models predicted concentrations of woodsmoke based on predictor variables available
from census data, typically used in health research, and spatial property assessment data
(SPAD), an underused data source at a finer spatial resolution. Different approaches to
regression modelling were investigated. A regression model already developed for
Victoria performed the best quantitatively (R=0.84, α=0.05); however, qualitative
considerations precluded it from being selected as an appropriate model. A quantitatively
(R=0.62, α=0.05) and qualitatively robust regression model was developed using SPAD
(M6). SPAD improved the spatial resolution and model performance over census data.
Removing spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the data prior to modelling produced
the most robust model as opposed to modelling spatial effects post regression. A
Bayesian approach to M6 was applied; however, model performance remained
unchanged (R=0.62, α=0.05). The spatial distribution of susceptibility to health problems
associated with woodsmoke was derived from census data relating to population, age and
income. Intersecting the exposure model with population susceptibility in a Geographic
Information System (GIS) identified areas at high risk for health effects attributable to
woodsmoke.
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The role of amphibole in the evolution of arc magmas and crust: the case from the Jurassic Bonanza arc section, Vancouver Island, CanadaLarocque, Jeffrey Paul 22 December 2008 (has links)
Exposed on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, the Jurassic Bonanza arc is believed to represent the southerly continuation of the Talkeetna arc. Small bodies of mafic and ultramafic cumulates within deeper plutonic levels of the arc constrain the fractionation pathways leading from high-MgO basalt to andesite-dacite compositions. The removal of amphibole from the most primitive non-cumulate compositions controls the compositions of mafic plutons and volcanics until the onset of plagioclase crystallization. This removal is accomplished by the intercumulus crystallization of large amphibole oikocrysts in primitive olivine hornblendite cumulates. Experimental hornblende compositions that crystallize from high-MgO basalts similar to primitive basalts from the Bonanza arc show a good correlation between octahedral Al in hornblende and pressure, and provide a means of estimating crystallization pressures during differentiation of primitive arc basalt. Application of an empirical barometer derived from experimental amphibole data (P = Al(6)/0.056 – 0.143; r2 = 0.923) to natural hornblendes from this study suggests that crystallization of primitive basalts took place at 470-880 MPa. Two-pyroxene thermometry gives a result of 1058 +/- 91 ºC for the only olivine hornblendite sample with both pyroxenes. Lever rule calculations require the removal of 30-45 % hornblende from the most primitive basalt compositions to generate basaltic andesite, and a further 48% crystallization of hornblende gabbro to generate dacitic compositions. Hornblende removal is more efficient at generating intermediate compositions than anhydrous gabbroic fractionating assemblages, which require up to 70% crystallization to reach basaltic andesite from similar starting compositions. There are no magmatic analogues to bulk continental crust in the Bonanza arc; no amount of delamination of ultramafic cumulates will push the bulk arc composition to high-Mg# andesite. Garnet removal appears to be a key factor in producing bulk continental crust.
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Volatile metal mobility and fluid/melt partitioning: Experimental constraints and applications to degassing magmasMacKenzie, Jason 30 December 2008 (has links)
Volatile trace metals are variably enriched in volcanic gases. Metal concentrations in sub-aerially erupted magmas are also depleted in many of these metals. The causes of variable metal enrichment in volcanic gasses, however, remain enigmatic. The objective of this work is to place experimental constraints on kinetic and thermodynamic factors that influence the concentrations of trace metals in volcanic gases. To measure metal mobility in silicate melts, Pt crucibles packed with metal doped glasses of broadly basaltic composition were equilibrated with air and mixed gases at atmospheric pressure. The metals in the melt diffused to the gas/melt interface where they were released as a volatile species. The experiments produced concentration-distance profiles from which diffusivity was derived. Experiments were also conducted in a piston-cylinder apparatus at 1 GPa pressure. In these experiments, melts were equilibrated with Cl-bearing fluids at high temperature and pressure. At equilibrium, trace metals partitioned between the melt and fluid phase as a function of temperature and fluid composition. The diffusivity of Re in melts of natural basalt, andesite and a synthetic composition in the CaO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2 (CMAS) system has been investigated at 0.1 MPa and 1250-1350C over a range of fO2 conditions from log fO2 = -10 to –0.68. Re diffusivity in natural basalt at 1300C in air is logDRe = -7.2 0.3 cm2/sec and increases to logDRe = -6.6 0.3 cm2/sec when trace amounts of Cl were added to the starting material. At fO2 conditions below the nickel-nickel oxide (NNO) buffer Re diffusivity decreases to logDRereducing = -7.60.2 cm2/sec and to logDReandesite = -8.4 0.2 cm2/sec in andesite melt. Cd, Re, Tl, Pb, Sb and Te diffusivity in CMAS and Na2O-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2 (NMAS) melts were also determined at 0.1 MPa and 1200-1350C. In the CMAS composition at 1300C, the fastest diffusing element was Cd having a logDCd = -6.5 0.2. The slowest element was Re with logDRe = -7.5 0.3. Diffusivities of Sb, Te, Pb and Tl have intermediate values where logDSb = -7.1 0.1, logDTe = -7.2 0.3, logDPb = -7.1 0.2, logDTl = -7.0 0.2 cm2/sec. In the NMAS composition, logDRe = -6.5 0.2, logDSb = -6.0 0.2, logDPb = -6.1 0.1, logDTl = -5.8 0.2 cm2/sec. Fluid/melt partition coefficients ( ) of Re, Mo, W, Tl and Pb between fluid (H2O + Cl) and a haplobasaltic melt in the CMAS system were measured between 1200 and 1400°C at 1 GPa and fluid chlorine molarities from 7.7 to 27 mol/L. At 1300°C and fluid molarity of 7.7 mol/L, = 9.8±1.8, = 11.8±1.6, = 3.7±1.6, = 4.5±1.4 and = 2.4 ±1.8. Both Mo and Re were shown to partition most strongly into the fluid at all temperatures and fluid chlorinities. Differences in diffusivity of volatile heavy metal ions to a lead to significant fractionation between these metals in magmas during degassing. Given the observed differences in Cd and Re diffusivities, an increase in the normalized Cd/Re ratio in the gas phase with increasing bubble growth rate is predicted. Monitoring of the Cd/Re ratios in aerosols from degassing volcanoes may provide a tool for predicting volcanic eruption. Modeling of Re using the values measured here support the contention that subaerial degassing is the cause of lower Re concentrations in arc-type and ocean island basalts compared to mid-ocean ridge basalts. The model results were also compared with emanation coefficients for trace metals from natural volcanoes. The magnitudes of the modeled Re/Tl and Re/Pb in fluids at 1300C and the lowest fluid chlorinities were less than that observed from their emanation coefficients. Re and Pb are more sensitive to fluid chlorinity than Tl. The ratios of Re/Tl and Re/Pb expected from emanation coefficients are closely matched if partitioning values for experiments having fluid chlorinities of ~16-20 MCl at 1300C are used.
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Spatial time-series analysis of satellite derived snow water equivalence.Farmer, Carson John Quentry 28 April 2009 (has links)
As the need to understand climate induced changes increases, so too does the need to
understand the long-term spatial-temporal characteristics of snow cover and snow water
equivalence (SWE). Snow cover and SWE are useful indicators of climate change. In
this research, we combine methods from spatial statistics, geographic information
systems (GIS), time-series analysis, ecosystems classification, cluster analysis, and
remote sensing, to provide a unique perspective on the spatial-temporal interactions of
SWE. We show that within the Canadian Prairies, extreme SWE are becoming more
spatially constrained, and may cause some regions to be more prone to flooding. As well,
we find that the temporal characteristics of SWE are not captured by current ecological
management units, highlighting the need for Canadian ecological management units that
consider winter conditions. We then address this need by developing methods designed
to generate geographically distinct SWE regimes. These regimes are used to partition the
landscape into winter-based management units, and compared with conventional summer
based units. We find that regional variations in the ability of current ecological units to capture SWE characteristics exist, and suggest that SWE regimes generated as a result of
this analysis should be used as guidelines for developing winter-based management units
in conjunction with current ecological stratifications.
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Landslides, stratigraphy, and surficial geology of the Hydraulic map sheet (NTS 93A/12) British Columbia, CanadaBichler, Ahren Johannes 10 July 2009 (has links)
The landslides, stratigraphy, and surficial geology of the Hydraulic map sheet (NTS 93A/12), located in the interior of British Columbia, were examined. The research centred on landslide processes within the upper Quesnel River valley. It consists of three major components, each conducted at a different scale.
At the smallest scale, surficial geological mapping was conducted at a scale of 1:50 000. Three hundred and twenty eight terrain polygons were identified, of which 32% were verified by fieldwork. Polygons containing morainal sediment as its primary surficial material make up 86% of the surficial area. Glaciofluvial and colluvial sediments, confined to the major valleys, are also important units. Glaciolacustrine sediment was rarely identified as the primary sediment but underlies all glaciofluvial terraces within the valleys. Bi-directional ice flow indicators show a strong northwest-southeast orientation while limited uni-directional data indicate flow to the northwest.
The medium scale part of the project was a stratigraphic assessment of sediment within the Quesnel and Cariboo River valleys and the description of landslide processes. Twenty four natural exposures were investigated, including nine landslides. Nine stratigraphic units were identified, of which only three are actively involved in modem landslide processes. Advance-phase glaciolacustrine sediment, of the Fraser Glaciation, hosts two styles of failure: I) long-lived, flow dominated failures that occur as a series of smaller events and 2) short-lived, rapid, slide dominated failures. A third style of landsliding was recognized within an upper clay unit and Fraser till. These landslides are short-lived, rapid events that are the most fluid-like failures found within the region.
The largest scale research was a detailed site investigation of a landslide using a variety of geophysical methods. Ground penetrating radar techniques offered detailed information on the upper 20 m of surficial material including the internal structure of individual units as well as the ability to image the surface of rupture and the surface of separation. Direct current electrical resistivity and seismic surveys yielded data on the geometries of the stratigraphic units to depths of 40 m and 80 m respectively. Direct current electrical resistivity was further able to image the surfaces of rupture and separation based on the juxtaposition of stratigraphic units. Through the integration of geophysical data with stratigraphy and digital terrain models a three-dimensional structural model of the landslide was created.
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Influence of swimming marine organisms on turbulence in the ocean from in-situ measurementsRousseau, Shani 23 July 2009 (has links)
Microstructure and acoustic data were collected in Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, and at Ocean Station P in the eastern subarctic North Pacific Ocean with the objective of observing krill-generated turbulence. At Ocean Station P, although a number of species composing the zooplankton community are large enough to generate turbulent flow (Re > 10e3), no turbulence events could be correlated with presence of swimming marine organisms and measurements indicated turbulence generated by shear.
Zooplankton densities were likely too low to produce turbulence at the scale of an
aggregation and the O(10e-2 m) scattered turbulent signals generated by individuals are difficult to detect in the natural environment.
In Saanich Inlet, higher dissipation rates were observed in regions of high acoustic
backscattering, suggesting that zooplankton-generated turbulence was occurring.
Although presence of zooplankton was often correlated with high dissipation rates, high
dissipation rates were frequently observed in the absence of zooplankton, suggesting
multiple sources of turbulence. High dissipation rates were observed in the presence of non-migrating zooplankton as much as in the migrating layer. These turbulence events occurred at a scale of more than 1 m as they were positively detected by our dissipation rate estimation technique. This suggests that marine organisms can act together to generate turbulence at scales that can produce diapycnal mixing. Over all time-series
collected, dissipation rates in the presence of zooplankton averaged 1.4 x 10e-8 W/kg
whereas the average in the absence of zooplankton was 0.7 x 10e-8 W/kg.
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Climate change detection over different land surface vegetation classesDang, Hongyan 29 September 2009 (has links)
Biosystem variations may occur as a consequence of climate change. Analysis of both modern and paleo-proxy climate data indicates several places on Earth that show biosytem variations possibly resulting from changes in climate. In this thesis, a global land cover classification data set is used to partition the globe into seven re¬gions to study surface temperature changes over different vegetation/surface classes. Statistically significant warming is found from the year 1900 over all regions (except for the ice sheets over Greenland and Antarctica). Outputs from three coupled cli¬mate models (CGCM2, HadCM2 and Parallel Climate Model) are then adopted to examine the detection and attribution of surface temperature trends over the vari¬ous vegetation classes for the past half century. An anthropogenic warming trend is detected in six of the seven regions, which means that anthropogenic activities may have caused detectable influences in the regional surface temperature changes of the past half century. Observed trends are consistent with those simulated in response to greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol forcing except over tropical forest and water where the models overestimate the warming. The similarity between the resultant scaling factors for each region from the different models underscores the reliability of our detection results.
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Sensitivity of iceberg drift to initial size distributionBurton, Justin E. 21 October 2009 (has links)
Historical interest in regards to icebergs have ranged from their ability to provide a freshwater source to the destructive forces they are able to impose on maritime structures. As well, recent studies have focused on the possible influences icebergs may have on the climate system. Initial investigations of the advective and deteriorative patterns of iceberg armadas under normal ablative conditions suggest that they are sensitive to their initial size distributions (Silva et al., 2006). This work extends these initial examinations further. The sensitivity of the ice and meltwater patterns to a range of initial iceberg size distributions for a collapse of the Ronne-Filchner ice shelf is investigated. A numerical iceberg model is developed, which simulates the drift and melting of iceberg populations specified in selected size categories. The model treats the population of icebergs as a continuum rather than focusing on the trajectories of individual icebergs. Oceanic and atmospheric forcing fields are provided by the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 40-year reanalysis project (Kalnay et al., 1996), respectively. Meltwater from large icebergs (with a total height of approximately 1180 m) originating from the Ronne-Filchner ice shelf reaches as far north as 58 S, compared to 63 S for small icebergs (with a total height of approximately 10 m). Also, the equivalent volume of small icebergs melts away completely within the first five years, as compared to 50 years for the large icebergs. Therefore, populations containing greater amounts of small icebergs are found to lead to a larger freshwater flux, as well as accumulate meltwater closer to the original location of the Ronne-Filchner ice shelf. These findings are important when examining the potential effect of ice shelf collapse on deep and intermediate water formation rates and associated climate feedbacks.
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Modelling primary production in seasonally ice-covered regions of the Arctic Ocean and its response to climate changeLavoie, Diane 26 October 2009 (has links)
I developed a 1D coupled sea ice-ocean-biological (including ice algae) model to study
the controlling effect of sea ice on primary and biogenic particle export production in the
western Arctic and the impacts of climate change (reduction in sea ice cover duration and
thickness, and in surface freshwater fluxes) on these productions. The model was
developed in two steps to maximize validation of model results with as much data as
possible. I first developed a coupled snow-ice-ice algae model for bottom landfast ice in
Resolute (Canadian Archipelago). Next, I developed and coupled a pelagic component
(NPZD type) to the ice algal model. The coupled model was implemented on the
Mackenzie shelf in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. And finally, I used simulations of future
climate change from the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to force the 1D
model and obtain projections of future primary production on the Beaufort Sea shelf for
two 18-year periods (2042-2059, and 2082-2099).
The model results show that ice algae are light limited at the beginning of the bloom, then
fluctuate between light and nutrient limitation, to finally remain nutrient limited toward
the end of the bloom. The bottom ice melt rate regulates the maximum biomass attained
in Resolute, while biomass accumulation remains low in the Beaufort Sea due to nutrient
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limitation. The termination of the bloom is triggered by melting of the snow cover and
results from (i) increased ice algal losses due to high bottom ice melt rate and (ii)
decreased ice algal growth due to nutrient limitation caused by the formation of a
meltwater lens below the ice. The snow and sea ice cover melt and/or break-up also
controls the timing of the phytoplankton bloom. However, primary producers on the
Beaufort Sea outer shelf are essentially nutrient limited and total annual primary
production is controlled in part by nutrient “pre-conditioning” in the previous fall and
winter and by the depth of winter convective mixing, that are controlled in part by the
supply of fresh water from runoff and ice melt. The spring bloom sometimes represents
an important fraction of the total annual primary production, which occurs in great part at
the base of the mixed layer. Future projections show an increase in average annual
primary production of 6% between the periods 1975-1992 and 2042-2059, and of 9%
between 1975-1992 and 2082-2099. The relative contribution of the ice algal and spring
phytoplankton blooms to annual primary production is reduced in the future runs due to a
reduction in the length of the ice algal growth season (resulting from earlier snow and ice
melt) and to a reduction in the replenishment of nutrient to the mixed layer in winter. The
duration of the summer subsurface phytoplankton bloom increases, which favours the
development of the main copepod species and leads to an increase in export production
(16% between 1975-1992 and 2082-2099) that is greater than the increase in primary
production. This leads to an increase in averaged simulated e-ratio of 10% between the
first and last period.
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Ceninetel a,it e tte tenew = 'Helping each other take care of the land' : an ethnoecological approach to restoring the coastal dune ecosystem of Tixen and Island View Beach / Helping each other take care of the landBartley, Raymond Glenn 26 October 2009 (has links)
This study focuses on the ecological restoration of a coastal dune ecosystem on the east
coast of Vancouver Island that supports bird migration. The area is also a part of the
traditional homelands of the Tsawout First Nation. Because environmental degradation has
impaired the functioning of both ecological and cultural systems, the restoration of this
ecosystem requires a distinctive approach. An “ethnoecological” approach to restoration is
presented that seeks collaboration between ecological science and traditional ecological
knowledge in order to restore the ecological integrity and human connection to this culturally
significant landscape. Guided by the values of the Tsawout community, and the practice of
good ecological restoration, I make recommendations for short and long term restoration
actions. A set of ethnoecological restoration guidelines are presented to help guide future
projects with the dual mandate of ecology and culture. Finally, opportunities for making
connections between this project and other regional initiatives are explored in an attempt to
restore links in the migratory habitat chain.
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