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Applying Dynamic Survival Analysis to the 2018-2020 Ebola Epidemic in the Democratic Republic of CongoVossler, Harley D. January 2021 (has links)
No description available.
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O cuidado perigoso: tramas de afeto e risco na Serra Leoa (a epidemia de Ebola contada pelas mulheres, vivas e mortas) / The dangerous care: webs of affection and risk in Sierra Leone (the Ebola epidemic tod by women, alive and dead)Pimenta, Denise Moraes 15 March 2019 (has links)
Durante os anos de 2013 a 2016, a África do Oeste, mais precisamente a região do Mano River Union Libéria, Serra Leoa e Guiné-Conacri viveu sob uma das piores epidemias do vírus do ebola ocorridas desde 1976, ano do primeiro relato do vírus no antigo Zaire (atual Congo). Entendendo a epidemia como locus privilegiado para a compressão das estruturas de uma sociedade, podendo descortinar conflitos políticos e desigualdades sociais e econômicas, dediquei-me à feitura de uma etnografia na Serra Leoa, durante 9 meses, momento em que morei em Freetown, a capital do país, e também em comunidades rurais. Na medida em que a epidemia neste país matou mais mulheres do que homens, busquei entender o porquê deste fato. Para tanto, segui as histórias de três mulheres mortas por conta do vírus: Jinnah Amana da comunidade de Komende-Luyama, Isha Tullah de Devil Hole e Fatmata de John Thorpe. A partir de um intenso trabalho de campo, concluí que a maior mortandade de mulheres serra-leonenses estava diretamente relacionada ao trabalho do cuidado dispendido a seus familiares e amigos. Deste modo, a epidemia do ebola na Serra Leoa era generificada, colocando mulheres em risco por conta da pesada responsabilização destas perante a trama de parentesco e afetos. Diante disso, cunhei o termo cuidado perigoso como uma categoria boa para pensar as relações de gênero por detrás da epidemia do ebola na Serra Leoa. Portanto, esta pesquisa segue as narrativas reveladoras de mulheres, vivas e mortas, a respeito do ebola na Serra Leoa. Narrativas estas que apontaram para a impossibilidade de se entender a epidemia do Ebola ou qualquer outro fenômeno social da Serra Leoa - sem se acessar as memórias da guerra civil vivida no país durante os anos de 1991 a 2002. / From 2013 to 2016, the West Africa, more precisely the Mano River Union region Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea-Conakry went through one of the worst Ebola virus epidemics since 1976, the year when the virus was first reported in Zaire (now, Congo). Understanding the epidemic as a privileged locus to understand the structures of a society, revealing political conflicts and social and economic inequalities, I dedicated myself to do ethnography in Sierra Leone for 9 months, when I lived in Freetown, the capital of the country, but also in rural communities. As the epidemic in this country killed more women than men, I sought to understand why this was occurred. In this way, I followed the stories of three women killed by the virus: Jinnah Amana from Komende-Luyama community, Isha Tullah from Devil Hole and Fatmata from John Thorpe. From an intensive fieldwork, I concluded that the large number of female death in Sierra Leonean was directly related to the work of the care expended on their relatives and friends. Thus, the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone was gendered, placing women at risk because of their heavy accountability to the network of kinship and affections. Faced with this, I coined the term \"dangerous care\" as a good category to think about the gender relations behind the ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. Therefore, this research follows the revealing narratives of women, alive and dead, regarding the ebola in Sierra Leone. These narratives pointed to the impossibility of understanding the Ebola epidemic - or any other social phenomena in Sierra Leone - without accessing the memories of the civil war in the country during the years 1991 to 2002.
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Applied mathematical modelling with new parameters and applications to some real life problemsMugisha, Stella 09 1900 (has links)
Some Epidemic models with fractional derivatives were proved to be well-defined, well-posed and more accurate [34, 51, 116], compared to models with the conventional derivative. An Ebola epidemic model with non-linear transmission is fully analyzed. The model is expressed with the conventional time derivative with a new parameter included,
which happens to be fractional (that derivative is called the derivative). We proved that the model is well-de ned and well-posed. Moreover, conditions for boundedness and dissipativity of the trajectories are established. Exploiting the generalized Routh-Hurwitz Criteria, existence and stability analysis of equilibrium points for the
Ebola model are performed to show that they are strongly dependent on the non-linear transmission. In particular, conditions for existence and stability of a unique endemic equilibrium to the Ebola system are given. Numerical simulations are provided for particular expressions of the non-linear transmission, with model's parameters taking di erent values. The resulting simulations are in concordance with the usual threshold
behavior. The results obtained here may be signi cant for the ght and prevention
against Ebola haemorrhagic fever that has so far exterminated hundreds of families and
is still a ecting many people in West-Africa and other parts of the world.
The full comprehension and handling of the phenomenon of shattering, sometime happening
during the process of polymer chain degradation [129, 142], remains unsolved
when using the traditional evolution equations describing the degradation. This traditional
model has been proved to be very hard to handle as it involves evolution of
two intertwined quantities. Moreover, the explicit form of its solution is, in general,
impossible to obtain. We explore the possibility of generalizing evolution equation modeling
the polymer chain degradation and analyze the model with the conventional time
derivative with a new parameter. We consider the general case where the breakup rate
depends on the size of the chain breaking up. In the process, the alternative version of
Sumudu integral transform is used to provide an explicit form of the general solution
representing the evolution of polymer sizes distribution. In particular, we show that
this evolution exhibits existence of complex periodic properties due to the presence of
cosine and sine functions governing the solutions. Numerical simulations are performed
for some particular cases and prove that the system describing the polymer chain degradation
contains complex and simple harmonic poles whose e ects are given by these
functions or a combination of them. This result may be crucial in the ongoing research
to better handle and explain the phenomenon of shattering. Lastly, it has become a conjecture that power series like Mittag-Le er functions and
their variants naturally govern solutions to most of generalized fractional evolution models
such as kinetic, di usion or relaxation equations. The question is to say whether or
not this is always true! Whence, three generalized evolution equations with an additional
fractional parameter are solved analytically with conventional techniques. These
are processes related to stationary state system, relaxation and di usion. In the analysis,
we exploit the Sumudu transform to show that investigation on the stationary
state system leads to results of invariability. However, unlike other models, the generalized
di usion and relaxation models are proven not to be governed by Mittag-Le er
functions or any of their variants, but rather by a parameterized exponential function,
new in the literature, more accurate and easier to handle. Graphical representations
are performed and also show how that parameter, called ; can be used to control the
stationarity of such generalized models. / Mathematical Sciences / Ph. D. (Applied Mathematics)
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