Orientador: Marcelo Fernandes de Oliveira / Banca: Cristina S. Pecequilo / Banca: Karen Fernandez Costa / Banca: Luis Fernando Ayerbe / Banca: Reginaldo Mattar Nasser / O Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais é instituído em parceria com a Unesp/Unicamp/PUC-SP, em projeto subsidiado pela CAPES, intitulado "Programa San Tiago Dantas" / Resumo: A crise financeira que atingiu o centro do sistema econômico internacional reforçou os debates a respeito do desgaste da atual conformação da ordem mundial e as perspectivas de transição do centro hegemônico do sistema internacional na constituição de uma nova ordem. Como resposta a este cenário, o governo norte-americano, com a ascensão de Barack Obama ao poder, estimulou o processo de recuperação do potencial de inovação de sua indústria, respaldado pela convicção de que a manutenção da liderança do sistema econômico internacional, com conseqüente capacidade de definição do desenho da ordem mundial, está relacionada ao mais alto nível de competitividade e produtividade industrial do país. Diante desse quadro, esta tese teve como objetivo avaliar a estratégia nacional de inovação do governo Obama dentro da trajetória institucional que conduziu a política científicotecnológica dos Estados Unidos ao longo do século XX. Partindo do pressuposto que a trajetória de inovação é afetada em conjunturas críticas da economia nacional e internacional, entende-se que a crise financeira atual ofereceu condições para que a estratégia nacional de inovação promovesse mudanças no modelo adotado durante a década de 1980, no contexto da financeirização da economia global e da redução do papel intervencionista do Estado na economia norte-americana. Modelo este, cujos reflexos foram a ampliação da entrada de capital de risco privado nos programas de pesquisa e desenvolvimento voltados à inovação, e a decisão do mercado de definir os setores privilegiados por estes investimentos. Nesse sentido, a partir da revisão da literatura que discute a formação de sistemas nacionais de inovação, e da análise da política científico-tecnológica proposta pelo governo federal, por meio de sua estratégia nacional de ... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The financial crisis that hit the center of international economic system reinforced the debates on world order and the perspectives about the transition of hegemonic center in the constitution of a new order. In response to this scenario, the US government, with Barack Obama, stimulated the recovery process of their innovative industry, supported by the conviction that the maintenance of the international leadership, with consequent design setting capacity of the world order is related to the higher level of competitiveness and industrial productivity of the country. This thesis aims evaluate the Obama administration's national innovation strategy within the institutional path that led the US scientific and technological policy during the twentieth century. Innovation trajectories are affected to critical junctures in the national and international economy. The current financial crisis offered conditions for changes in the innovation model adopted during the 1980s, in the context of financialization of the global economy and lack of interventionist role of the state in the US economy. Model whose aftermath was the expansion of the private risk capital to innovation research and the market's autonomy to set priority sectors. In this sense, from the literature review on national innovation systems, and analysis of scientific and technological policy proposed by the federal government, this thesis demonstrates that Obama administration seeks re-establish a scientific and technological policy aimed at innovation in which the state is responsible for defining the strategic sectors to be prioritized by the national innovation system, according to national challenges to be faced in the context of international competition. / Doutor

Este trabalho visa a avaliar o papel da ação estatal, no âmbito da política econômica e da política externa, para as mudanças no padrão de inserção internacional da economia brasileira entre 1945 e 1980, período em que o país consolidou-se como semiperiferia industrializada da \"economia-mundo capitalista.\" Para além do arcabouço teórico de \"sistemas mundo\" utilizado para abarcar os determinantes sistêmicos que influíram sobre a inserção internacional da economia brasileira e sobre ambas as políticas econômica e externa, a dissertação recorre ainda às formulações das áreas da história econômica, economia política e relações internacionais para subsidiar a análise. Por fim, o trabalho realiza uma análise comparativa entre os instrumentos da política econômica e da política externa que atuaram sobre esse padrão de inserção, avaliando as formas de interação que se estabeleceram entre esses instrumentos e as suas implicações para a alteração da inserção internacional da economia brasileira. / This study aims to analyze the governments\' role, through its economic policy and foreign relations policy, for the change in the Brazilian economy\'s international insertion pattern between 1945 and 1980, period when the country consolidated itself as part of the industrialized semi-periphery in the \"capitalist world-economy\". In addition to the theoretical framework of \"world systems\" used to explain the systemic elements that influenced the Brazilian economy\'s international insertion and the economic policy and the foreign relations policy, the dissertation also uses ideas from the areas of economic history, political economy and international relations to support the analysis. Finally, the study makes a comparative analysis between the instruments of economic policy and foreign policy that influenced on this pattern of insertion, evaluating the interaction forms established between them and their implications for the change in the Brazilian economy\'s international insertion pattern.

Malgré les nombreuses recherches effectuées à ce jour, il n'est pas toujours aisé de bien comprendre les mécanismes en œuvre dans une prise de décision. Ceux-ci empruntent à différentes disciplines : sciences de l'information, sciences de gestion, sciences cognitives, sociologie des organisations, etc. Si chacune a pu se développer indépendamment des autres, il ne peut être fait l'économie aujourd'hui de passerelles entre elles au risque de ne pouvoir jamais percevoir dans leur globalité les processus de prise de décision. Ce n'est pas tant la reconnaissance des liens existants entre ces disciplines que la méthode permettant de quantifier les valeurs de cette relation qui fait défaut aujourd'hui. La variabilité du genre humain et les multiples possibilités de situations rendent impossible la création d'une table où chaque comportement serait évalué pour chaque type de situations envisageables. Les possibilités sont infinies. En revanche, la théorie des jeux enseigne qu'il est possible d'évaluer la position d'un joueur et son interaction avec les autres acteurs du jeu à partir d'un résultat numérique. L'outil manquant aujourd'hui est une méthode permettant de quantifier numériquement n'importe qu'elle posture d'un joueur, quelle que soit la situation à laquelle il est confronté et quel que soit le nombre de joueurs impliqués.La présente recherche a pour ambition de combler ce vide. Le système proposé sera expérimenté à travers quelques cas concrets de la politique publique d'intelligence économique française. / In spite of the numerous researches made this day, it is not always easy to understand well mechanisms in work in a decision-making. These borrow from various disciplines: sciences of information, sciences of management, cognitive sciences, sociology of organizations, etc. If each was able to develop independently of the others, he cannot be saved footbridges between them today at the risk of being never able to perceive in their global nature the processes of decision-making. It is not so much the recognition of the existing links between these disciplines than the method while allowing to quantify the values of this relation which is lacking today. The variability of the human race and the multiple possibilities of situations make impossible the creation of a table where every behavior would be estimated for every possible situations. The possibilities are infinite. On the other hand, the game theory teaches that it is possible to estimate the position of a player and its interaction with the other actors of the game from a digital result. The tool being lacking today is a method allowing to quantify numerically the posture of a player, whatever is the situation he is confronted with and which is the number of implied players.The present research has for ambition to fill this lack. The proposed system will be experimented through some concrete cases of the public policy of French economic intelligence.

Na década de 90 houve mudanças significativas no setor agroindustrial do leite no Brasil. Dentre elas destacam-se: i) a desregulamentação do rigoroso controle estatal após 46 anos (1945-1991); ii) o lançamento de novos produtos; iii) a entrada de multinacionais; iv) a criação do Mercado Comum do Cone Sul e v) a abertura comercial generalizada. O comércio mundial de lácteos tem a participação de poucos países, sendo os principais importadores e exportadores os países membros da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE). Países como o Brasil e a Índia possuem parcelas pouco expressivas do volume de comércio. O objetivo geral da pesquisa é analisar os fatores que têm influenciado as importações de lácteos pelo Brasil no período de 1991 a 2003. A metodologia empregada para medir os impactos das importações de leite nas variáveis macroeconômicas foi a de séries temporais. Incorporou-se uma análise gráfica a partir do diagrama back to back analisado por Barros (1987). E, ainda, utilizou-se a equação de excesso de demanda para definir a demanda por importação de leite. Concluiu-se que as variáveis: preço de importação de leite, taxa de câmbio real, PIB per capita e preço interno de leite são significativas e apresentam sinais coerentes com a teoria econômica. As elasticidades estimadas foram todas próximas ou superiores à unidade, revelando um mercado bastante dinâmico com ajustes rápidos a curto prazo. As elasticidades foram de magnitudes bem parecidas, sugerindo uma boa integração do segmento leiteiro ao mercado internacional. Vale salientar que as dummies incluídas para captar as variações de políticas econômicas como estabilização monetária e políticas anti-dumping não apresentaram efeitos significativos. É possível que seus efeitos tenham sido captados por outras variáveis incluídas no modelo. / During the decade of the 1990´s several significant changes took place in the milk agroindustry sector in Brazil: i) the sector was deregulated after 46 years of state control; ii) new milk products were created; iii) the market share of multinational enterprises increased; iv) the Common Market of the South (Mercosul) was created; v) the economy was opened through tariff reduction and deregulations. Only a few countries participate in the world milk trade. Major importers and exporters are members of OECD. The trade share of countries like Brazil and India in rather small. The general objective of this study is to analyze the factors that influenced the imports of milk by Brazil during the period 1991 to 2003. The milk imports market is analysed through "back to back" graphic system such that Brazil imports demand faces the world export supply. These two functions are then estimated. The variables dollar price of imported milk, real exchange rate, per capita GDP an domestic price of milk presented significant coefficient with sign coherent to economic theory. Estimated elasticities were all close to or higher than one, revealing a quite dynamic market with short term fast a adjustments. The magnitudes of the elasticities were very similar, suggesting a good integration of the milk sector to the international market. It should be pointed out that the dummy variables included in the model to capture the effects of the monetary stabilization and the anti-dumping measures did not present statiscally significant coefficients. It is possible that these effects have been capture by other variables in the model.

A relação entre Risco País e Dívida Pública pode ser expressa pelo próprio conceito atribuído ao termo Risco País, qual seja, a probabilidade de inadimplência de uma economia. Em outras palavras, esse busca refletir o grau de confiança dos agentes quanto à situação econômica de um país, fator esse importante para a propensão ao default. Dentro desse contexto, seria natural esperar que aumentos na relação Dívida/PIB elevassem a percepção de risco de uma economia, dado que sinalizam a diminuição da sua capacidade de pagamento. No entanto, principalmente entre os países emergentes, o comportamento acima nem sempre é verdadeiro, sendo o caso brasileiro um exemplo recente de que a relação observada nem sempre é direta. A maior parte dos trabalhos sobre esse assunto se concentra em tentar explicar o comportamento de longo prazo da trajetória de endividamento fiscal ou se restringem a abordar a Dívida Pública como uma variável explicativa chave do termo de Risco. Logo, existe uma lacuna a ser explorada nessa literatura dado que é possível argumentar a favor da presença de fatores não observáveis diretamente e que atuam na dinâmica dessas duas variáveis. Assim, nesse estudo defende-se a hipótese da existência de fatores não observáveis e externos aos fundamentos da economia capazes de alterar a percepção de risco dos agentes, e o próprio contexto de promoção de políticas fiscais. O grau de otimismo que influência as ações dos agentes econômicos é um desses fatores não observáveis. Diante do exposto, o objetivo dessa dissertação consiste em analisar a presença desses componentes na dinâmica do Risco-País e da Dívida Pública para a economia brasileira por meio da aplicação de modelos na Forma de Espaço de Estado (State Space Model) e estimação dos componentes via os estimadores recursivos de Filtro de Kalman e de Suavização. Tanto no estudo da relação Dívida/PIB como do Risco-País, os resultados apontam a presença de fatores não explicados integralmente pelas variáveis explicativas e que alteram o comportamento das séries, principalmente em momentos de maior turbulência, como no episódio do ataque de 11 de setembro em 2001 ou na eleição presidencial do Brasil em 2002. A análise desses componentes oferece um indício interessante sobre quando a economia brasileira está mais vulnerável ou não aos impactos de fatores externos ao controle governamental. / The relationship between Country-Risk and Public Debt can be expressed by the concept of Country Risk, that is, the probability of default of an economy. In other words, it intends to express the degree of confidence of the agents regarding the economic situation of a country, an important factor in assessing its propensity to default. In this context, it would be natural to expect that increases in the Debt/GDP ratio would raise the risk perception of the economy, as they signal the reduction of its capacity of payment. Nevertheless, especially among emergent countries, this relationship does not always works in the expected way, and the Brazilian case is a recent example of this situation. Most of researches on this subject concentrate in trying to explain the long run behavior of the trajectory of fiscal expenditure or constrain themselves to study the Public Debt just as a key- variable explaining the Risk term. Thus, there remains a field to be explored in this literature as it is possible to argue in favor of the presence of non-directly observable factors that impact the dynamic of both of these variables. In this sense, this work supports the hypothesis of the existence of non-observable factors external to the economic fundamentals that are able to change the risk perception of the agents, and even the context where the fiscal policies are implemented. The degree of optimism that influences the action of the economic agents is one of these non-observable factors. The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the presence of those components in the dynamics of Country-Risk and Public Debt of the Brazilian economy through the application of State Space Models and the estimation of their components by using the Kalman Filter and Smoothing recursive estimators. In the study of both Debt/GDP and Country-Risk, the results point to the presence of factors that are not integrally explained by the explanatory variables but that change the behavior of the series, mainly in moments of higher turbulence, as it happened in the incident of the attack of September 11th in 2001 or in the presidential election in Brazil in 2002. The analysis of these components offers an interesting indication about when the Brazilian economy is more vulnerable or not to the impacts of the factors external to the governmental control.

Orientador: Alexandre Sartoris Neto / Banca: Marislei Nishijima / Banca: Renato Perim Colistete / Resumo: Buscou-se, neste trabalho, examinar como a literatura interpretou os determinantes do endividamento externo brasileiro para o período 1964-79, e dar um passo além na determinação das variáveis explicativas desse processo. Foi possível dividir as interpretações entre três grandes categorias: a primeira categoria enfatizou os fatores internos ligados ao financiamento da economia como principal determinante de uma política econômica pró-endividamento externo; a segunda categoria enfatizou os fatores externos ligados à conjuntura econômica internacional do período e a terceira categoria, subdivida em mais dois grupos, combinou fatores externos e internos, chamando a atenção para a existência de estruturas internas que necessariamente estimularam e apoiaram esse tipo de diretriz de política econômica pró-endividamento (endividamento como opção de política econômica ratificada externamente e, sobretudo, internamente). A partir das variáveis levantadas pela literatura, estimamos um modelo geral para o endividamento externo para o período completo (1964-79), que não difere dos já estimados pela literatura empírica, e inovamos ao incluir variáveis alternativas com vieses político e social em recortes temporais diferenciados (devido a não disponibilidade dos dados para todo o período). Realizamos ainda Testes de Quebra Estrutural e de Análise de Intervenção os quais evidenciaram que os fatores comumente designados como responsáveis pelo endividamento externo, o baixo custo do empréstimo externo, a elevada taxa de juros interna, a liquidez internacional, a crise do petróleo, não são suficientes para a explicar a evolução da série ao longo de todo o período. Os resultados parecem evidenciar mais a favor dos autores que consideram em suas análises fatores internos e externos / Abstract: This work aims to examine how the economic literature has interpreted the causes of Brazilian foreign debt in the 1964-79 period and take one step ahead concerning the explaining variables in this process. It was possible to classify those interpretations into three major categories: the first one emphasizes domestic factors regarding the financial system as the main cause of the debt; the second one emphasizes foreign factors, specially because of the world economy in the period; the third one, divided into two subgroups, uses a blend of domestic and foreign factors, emphasizing the existence of domestic structures that necessarily stimulated and supported this kind of pro debt policy (debt as an option of economic policy, with foreign and domestic support). Based on variables pointed out in the literature, we estimated a general model for foreign debt in the whole period (1964-79). This is not entirely different from what was made before in empiric works, but there are innovations such as the inclusion of social and political variables for different time frames (since those data are not available for the whole period). Tests of Structural Breaks and Analysis of Intervention seems to show that factors usually taken as responsible for foreign debt in the period, such as low cost of foreign money, high domestic interest rates, international liquidity, petroleum crisis, are not sufficient explanations to the evolution of debt in the period. The empiric results seem to be more in favor of those who consider in their analysis, both domestic and foreign causes / Mestre

Local Economic Development (LED) is one of the primary building blocks in terms of the economic growth and development equation for the Province. The primary challenges LED has the potential to address include the following: Job creation, the building of an enabling environment that will encourage economic engagement by a larger number of local entrepreneurs, drawing together a number of critical partners and mobilising their energies and resources towards local economic growth and development, facilitating access to finance, markets, capacity building and business support services, creating the environment which will effect economic viability of local communities and their Local Authorities, linking local product development to provincial, national and international markets. There are many other fundamental challenges. The key issue though is whether people in their communities, especially rural and peripheral environments, are benefiting in real terms regarding the quality of their lives. The LED programme will also give effect to the “Growth, Employment and Redistribution: A Macro Economic Strategy” framework that outlines the strategy for rebuilding and restructuring the South African economy. The document confirms Government’s commitment: “It is Government’s conviction that we have to mobilise all our energy in a new burst of economic activity. This will need to break current constraints and catapult the economy to higher levels of growth, development and employment needed to provide a better life for all South Africans.” (1996:2)

手稿本, 複本據手稿本影印. / Thesis (M.A.)--香港中文大學硏究院歷史學部. / Shou gao ben, fu ben ju shou gao ben ying yin. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 245-253). / Thesis (M.A.)--Xianggang Zhong wen da xue yan jiu yuan li shi xue bu. / Chapter I --- 引言 --- p.1 / Chapter II --- 重整農村的社會經濟秩序 --- p.25 / Chapter III --- 責任制政策的演變過程 --- p.62 / Chapter 一 --- 定額計酬時期 --- p.65 / Chapter 二 --- 聯產計酬時期 --- p.74 / Chapter 三 --- 家庭聯產承包時期 --- p.88 / (小結) --- p.97 / Chapter IV --- 責任制的推廣情況 --- p.120 / Chapter V --- 有中國特色的社會主義農村經濟發展道路 --- p.189 / Chapter 一 --- 基本策略 --- p.190 / Chapter 二 --- 專業戶 --- p.195 / Chapter 三 --- 鄉鎮企業和小城鎮 --- p.205 / (小結) --- p.214 / Chapter VI --- 結語 --- p.238 / 參考資料 --- p.245

Wong Chai Ming, Simon. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1992. / Includes bibliographical references. / Abstract --- p.ii / Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction / Chapter ´ؤ --- Background --- p.1 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Objectives --- p.1 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Methodology --- p.2 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Limitations --- p.3 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- China's Economy / Chapter ´ؤ --- Introduction --- p.4 / Chapter ´ؤ --- China before1949 --- p.4 / Chapter ´ؤ --- "Economic Development, 1949-77" --- p.5 / Chapter ´ؤ --- "Economic Reforms & Open Door Policy, 1978-91" --- p.7 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Economic Structure & Problems9 --- p.9 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Foreign Trade --- p.11 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Summary --- p.12 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- Foreign Direct Investment in China / Chapter ´ؤ --- Introduction --- p.14 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Foreign Direct Investment --- p.14 / Chapter ´ؤ --- "Foreign Direct Investment in china, 1979-91" --- p.14 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Why Does China Need Foreign Direct Investment --- p.15 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Why do Foreigners Invest in China --- p.17 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Forms of Foreign Investment --- p.18 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Where Does Foreign Investment Take place --- p.20 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Who are the Investors and What do they Invest --- p.24 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Approval of Joint Ventures --- p.25 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Summary --- p.26 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- Export Share Requirements in china / Chapter ´ؤ --- Introduction --- p.31 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Export Share Requirements --- p.31 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Contractual Export share Requirements in China --- p.32 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Why Does China use Export Share Policy --- p.34 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Export Enterprises & Technologically Advanced Enterprises --- p.41 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Attitudes of Foreign Investors on Export Share Requirements --- p.42 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Interplay of China's Policy and Investors' Strategies --- p.44 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Summary --- p.46 / Chapter Chapter 5 --- Surveys of Export Share Requirements in china / Chapter ´ؤ --- Introduction --- p.50 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Cases Reported in the Literature --- p.50 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Interpretation of Cases with the Factor-Share Matrix --- p.55 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Summary of Case Survey Findings --- p.56 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Questionnaire Survey --- p.56 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Interpretation of Questionnaire results with the Factor-Share Matrix --- p.57 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Summary of Questionnaire Survey Findings --- p.59 / Chapter 一 --- Comparison of Case and Questionnaire Survey Findings --- p.59 / Chapter Chapter 6 --- Appraisal of Export Share Requirements in China / Chapter ´ؤ --- Introduction --- p.84 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Theoretical Basis --- p.84 / Chapter 一 --- International Comparison --- p.86 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Economic Performance Appraisal --- p.89 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Future Directions --- p.93 / Chapter ´ؤ --- Summary --- p.95 / Chapter Appendix A --- The Questionnaire --- p.101 / Bibliography --- p.105

by Lau Chi Kong. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 47-48). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Chapter ONE --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter TWO --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.5 / Chapter THREE --- FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA --- p.8 / Chapter FOUR --- MODEL 1 SUBSTITUTABILITY --- p.13 / Chapter FIVE --- CONCLUSION --- p.39 / APPENDIX --- p.44