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The science of synthetic fuel production began in the seventeenth century. However, large-scale production of synthetic fuels started in the early 1900's and, for several decades, gas manufactured from coal significantly contributed to the U.S. economy. The production of synthetic fuels declined due to increases in the price of coal and discoveries of predominantly methane natural gas. Today, an extensive network of pipelines is used to transmit and distribute natural gas for industrial and residential applications. The decline of natural gas reserves in the United States, in conjunction with the availability of very large coal reserves, has provided the incentive for development of coal gasification plants. Synthetic fuels are expected to contribute significantly to the supply of energy before the end of this century, and coal will be the primary source for production of these fuels. By many accounts, difficulties in raising the high amount of initial capital and future uncertainties with regard to fuel and operating costs have made development of synthetic fuels economically infeasible. However, as the prices of oil and natural gas increase, synthetic fuels production becomes a more attractive alternative. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the economics of synthetic natural gas with the current state of technology and to determine its future role as prices of oil and gas increase. In this report, a general methodology of production of synthetic natural gas is explained. For the economic analysis, the Lurgi Model was selected because it has been the most common model used for commercial production of high BTU gases. An extensive analytical model is described in which inflated capital, fuel, and operating and maintenance costs were accounted for and the equivalent annual cost of cash flows over the project life was calculated. The risk analysis was accomplished by applying Monte Carlo techniques through a simulation model which handles risks associated with various input parameters. SLAM, a FORTRAN-based language, was selected as the simulation language. Based on the results, all the cost elements were evaluated and the sensitivity of the total cost to each element was examined. This study was extended to the calculation of costs associated with he generation of electricity by burning synthetic natural gas. The results were then compared to the respective costs related to oil-burning power plants. The results show that high cost of synthetic high BTU gas makes it difficult to compete with natural gas at current prices. Coal feed stocks represent a major portion of the total cost of synthetic gases. The cost of capital, which is a critical factor at the developing stage, constitutes a relatively small portion of the total cost over the plant life. A similar observation was made for operating and maintenance costs. However, the future regulations regarding pollution control could have a strong impact on this portion of the cost. For power generations, oil was found to be far more economical than using synthetic natural gas. The computer simulation also revealed that the total cost of each alternative is very sensitive to this fuel cost. The conclusion of this study points to the fuel costs as the dominant factor in the choice of fuel alternatives in the future.

published_or_final_version / abstract / China Development Studies / Master / Master of Arts

大量學術文獻指出氣候變化是毫不含糊地由持續增加的人為溫室氣體排放所造成。其中，二氧化碳排放（碳排放）是最為重要的溫室氣體排放。碳排放和經濟發展之間的密切關係亦受到廣泛肯定。碳排放和收入之間的關係引起了研究人員的極大興趣。學者們對該關係的環境庫茲涅茨曲線（一個倒U形曲線）的有效性持有不同的觀點，該曲線之有效性的討論可以分為兩部分，即時間和空間（國家）的尺度。 / 在這項研究中，首先以描述性統計研究碳排放量的變化，其中包括排放總量，人均排放量和碳強度三個指標。然後，透過雙對數和二次雙對數回歸模型進一步研究這三項指標和各經濟發展指標的關係（經濟發展指標包括總量和人均國內生產總值，貿易值和產業值）。結果指出國內生產總值可以很好地解釋碳排放之變化。根據1970年到2007年的數據，排放總量和國內生產總值總量在雙對數回歸模型中呈現顯著的線性關係。同樣在雙對數回歸模型中，人均排放量和人均國內生產總值之間的關係則從顯著線性變成顯著二次（倒U形曲線），從而支持環境庫茲涅茨曲線理論。碳強度和人均國內生產總值之間的關係是顯著的倒U形曲線。所有研究國家的回歸結果指出，發達國家在經濟增長的同時，已經減少排放總量及人均量，而發展中國家沒有減少。大多數發達國家在碳強度和人均國內生產總值的關係上呈現顯著的負相關，而發展中國家在碳強度和人均國內生產總值之間的關係上比例平均。在一般情況下，其他因素如貿易值和產業值解釋碳排放變化之能力較國內生產總值差。較特別的結果是由於製造、礦業和公用事業產業值屬於高碳密集性，該產業能很好地解釋碳排放的變化，所以為該產業的度身訂造之減排控制是必要的。 / 進一步說，發展中國家之間的差異仍然很大。透過層次聚類法，所有國家基於排放水平可分成11個類。其中，第11類主要包括發達國家，擁有極高的排放總量，非常高的人均排放量和中等的碳強度。與此同時，第4類主要包括發展中國家，亦有非常高的總排放量，中等的人均排放量和極高的碳強度。美國和中國，分別為第11類和第4類的案例研究，這兩國能有效地幫助了解碳排放和經濟發展之相互關係。其他集群則代表不同的經濟發展階段。聚類分析的結果可作為未來國際氣候變化政策建設的參考。 / Wealth of scholarly reviewed literatures indicates that climate change is unequivocally caused by the continual increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions remain to be of upmost importance among all GHGs emissions. It is widely accepted that close relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic development exists. The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and income, in particular, has aroused much research interests. Researchers have polarizing views on the validity of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), an inverted U-shaped curve of that relationship. The ground of argumentation for the validity of EKC can be also divided into two parts, namely temporal and spatial (national) extents. / In this research, variations in three indicators of carbon dioxide emissions, including total emissions, per capita emissions and carbon intensity (CI), are firstly examined by descriptive statistics. Next, double-log and quadratic double-log regression models are employed to study the relationship between these three indicators and indicators of economic development (including the total and per capita GDP, trade values and sectoral values). Results show that GDP has high explanatory power for the large variation of emissions. By using the data from 1970 to 2007, the relationship between total emissions and total GDP is significantly linear in double-log regression models. The relationship between per capita emissions and per capita GDP has changed from linear to quadratic (inverted U-shaped), which supports the EKC. The relationship between CI and per capita GDP is significant in an inverted U-shaped curve. Regression results in each country indicate that developed countries have reduced total and per capita emissions in parallel with economic growth while developing countries have not. Majority of developed countries have negative relationship between CI and per capita GDP; whereas their counterparts have even proportion in the relationships. Other explanatory factors, like trade values and sectoral values, in general, have lower explanatory power than GDP. Surprisingly, results indicated that manufacturing, mining and utility (MMU) sector yields very high explanatory power for the variation of carbon dioxide emissions due to the sector’s high carbon-intensive nature. Tailor-made control on this sector is necessary for emissions abatement. / Furthermore, as the variation within developing countries is still large, countries are classified into clusters on the basis of their levels of emissions by Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. Eleven clusters are formed. Among all, cluster 11, comprised of mostly developed countries, yields extremely high total emissions, very high per capita emissions and medium CI. Meanwhile, cluster 4, made of mostly developing countries, have very high total emissions, medium per capita emissions and extremely high CI. The USA and China, case studies of clusters 11 and 4 respectively, have provided insight for the interactive relationship between emissions and economic development. Remaining clusters represent different stages of economic development. The results of the clustering can serve as a reference for the construction of future climate change policy. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Wong, Wai Fung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 273-280). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts also in Chinese. / ABSTRACT --- p.i / 摘錄 --- p.iii / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.iv / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.v / LIST OF TABLES --- p.x / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.xix / LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS --- p.xxiv / Chapter CHAPTER ONE: --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- EFFECTS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- VARIATION IN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AMONG COUNTRIES IN TERMS OF THREE INDICATORS: TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY (CI) --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.6 / Chapter 1.4 --- RESEARCH QUESTIONS --- p.8 / Chapter 1.5 --- RESEARCH OBJECTIVES --- p.8 / Chapter 1.6 --- SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY --- p.9 / Chapter 1.7 --- ORGANIZATION OF THE THESIS --- p.10 / Chapter CHAPTER TWO: --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1 --- CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1.1 --- Definitions of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1.2 --- Estimation of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.13 / Chapter 2.1.3 --- Importance of carbon dioxide emissions in the context of climate change --- p.15 / Chapter 2.2 --- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.19 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Concept and different stages of economic development --- p.19 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Indicators of economic development among all countries --- p.20 / Chapter 2.2.3 --- Economic development since 1970 in major countries --- p.23 / Chapter 2.3 --- PAST STUDIES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.30 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Relationship between emissions and income expressed by GDP --- p.30 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- Relationship between emissions and international trade expressed by export and import values --- p.38 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- Relationship between emissions and sectoral composition expressed by sectoral values --- p.43 / Chapter 2.4 --- RESEARCH GAPS IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.44 / Chapter 2.4.1 --- Identification of relationship between emissions and economic development --- p.44 / Chapter 2.4.2 --- Classification of countries based on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.46 / Chapter 2.4.3 --- Research plan for this study --- p.47 / Chapter 2.5 --- SUMMARY OF THE LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.48 / Chapter CHAPTER THREE: --- CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, DATA SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY --- p.49 / Chapter 3.1 --- INTRODUCTION OF THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK --- p.49 / Chapter 3.2 --- RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS UNDER THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK --- p.50 / Chapter 3.3 --- INTRODUCTION TO THE INDICATORS OF THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK --- p.51 / Chapter 3.4 --- RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE COMPONENTS --- p.53 / Chapter 3.4.1 --- Relationship between income and carbon dioxide emissions --- p.53 / Chapter 3.4.2 --- Relationship between international trade and carbon dioxide emissions --- p.54 / Chapter 3.4.3 --- Relationship between sectoral composition and carbon dioxide emissions --- p.54 / Chapter 3.5 --- EXAMINATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP IN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT --- p.54 / Chapter 3.6 --- DATA SOURCE --- p.57 / Chapter 3.6.1 --- Data source for the indicators of economic development and population --- p.57 / Chapter 3.6.2 --- Data source for the indicators of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.58 / Chapter 3.7 --- METHODOLOGY --- p.59 / Chapter 3.7.1 --- Variables used in the research --- p.59 / Chapter 3.7.2 --- Methodology used in the research --- p.60 / Chapter 3.8 --- SUMMURY OF THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, DATA SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY --- p.63 / Chapter CHAPTER FOUR: --- VARIATIONS IN THE LEVELS OF INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.65 / Chapter 4.1 --- VARIATIONS IN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, POPULATION AND GDP --- p.65 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Variation in total carbon dioxide emissions --- p.65 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Variation in total population --- p.72 / Chapter 4.1.3 --- Variation in total GDP --- p.75 / Chapter 4.1.4 --- Variation in per capita carbon dioxide emissions --- p.79 / Chapter 4.1.5 --- Variation in per capita GDP --- p.83 / Chapter 4.1.6 --- Variation in CI --- p.87 / Chapter 4.2 --- VARIATIONS IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE VALUES AND SECTORAL VALUES --- p.91 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Variation in total export values --- p.91 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Variation in total import values --- p.94 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Variation in per capita export values --- p.96 / Chapter 4.2.4 --- Variation in per capita import values --- p.99 / Chapter 4.2.5 --- Variation in trade balance --- p.102 / Chapter 4.2.6 --- Variation in total sectoral values --- p.104 / Chapter 4.2.7 --- Variation in per capita sectoral values --- p.106 / Chapter 4.2.8 --- Variation in sectoral composition --- p.107 / Chapter 4.3 --- SUMMARY ON THE VARIATIONS IN THE LEVELS OF INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.109 / Chapter CHAPTER FIVE: --- RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.112 / Chapter 5.1 --- RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INCOME IN TERMS OF TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.112 / Chapter 5.1.1 --- Relationship between total carbon dioxide emissions and total GDP --- p.112 / Chapter 5.1.2 --- Relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita GDP --- p.123 / Chapter 5.1.3 --- Relationship between CI and per capita GDP --- p.133 / Chapter 5.2 --- RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN TERMS OF TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.142 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Relationship between total carbon dioxide emissions and total values of exports and imports --- p.142 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita values of exports and imports --- p.146 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Relationship between CI and per capita values of exports and imports . --- p.151 / Chapter 5.3 --- RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND SECTORAL COMPOSITION IN TERMS OF TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.157 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- Relationship between of total carbon dioxide emissions and total values of six sectors --- p.157 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- Relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita values of six sectors --- p.160 / Chapter 5.3.3 --- Relationship between CI and per capita values of six sectors --- p.163 / Chapter 5.3.4 --- Relationship between indicators of carbon dioxide emissions and ratios of sectoral values to the sum of all sectors --- p.165 / Chapter 5.4 --- SUMMARY ON THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.168 / Chapter CHAPTER SIX: --- CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES BASED ON THE LEVELS OF TOTAL CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, PER CAPITA CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.171 / Chapter 6.1 --- CORRELATION ANALYSIS BETWEEN TOTAL EMISSIONS, PER CAPITA EMISSIONS AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.171 / Chapter 6.2 --- MEMBERSHIP OF COUNTRIES AND BASIC CHARACTERISTICS OF EACH CLUSTER --- p.173 / Chapter 6.2.1 --- Result of Hierarchical Cluster Analysis and membership of countries --- p.173 / Chapter 6.2.2 --- Characteristics of each cluster in terms of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.176 / Chapter 6.2.3 --- Characteristics of each cluster in terms of GDP (indicator of economic development) --- p.180 / Chapter 6.3 --- IN-DEPTH EXAMINATION OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EACH CLUSTER --- p.184 / Chapter 6.3.1 --- Clusters with extremely high to very high total emissions: clusters 11 and 4 --- p.185 / Chapter 6.3.2 --- Clusters with high total emissions: clusters 8, 10 and 3 --- p.211 / Chapter 6.3.3 --- Clusters with medium to low total emissions: clusters 9, 2 and 1 --- p.230 / Chapter 6.3.4 --- Clusters with very low to extremely low total emissions: clusters 5, 6 and 7 --- p.247 / Chapter 6.4 --- SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS --- p.263 / Chapter CHAPTER SEVEN: --- CONCLUSION --- p.267 / Chapter 7.1 --- MAJOR FINDINGS OF THE RESEARCH --- p.267 / Chapter 7.2 --- IMPLICATIONS OF THE RESEARCH --- p.270 / Chapter 7.3 --- LIMITATIONS OF THE RESEACH --- p.271 / Chapter 7.4 --- RECOMMENDATION FOR FUTURE RESEARCH --- p.272 / REFERENCES --- p.273 / APPENDICES --- p.281

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Various macroeconomic effects resulted from the changing economic and societal structure in the second half of the 20th century, which greatly impacted women's economic position in the United States. Using dynamic programming as the main modeling tool, and U.S. data for factual evidence, three papers are developed to test the validity of three related hypotheses focusing on female employment, education, marriage, and divorce trends. The first chapter estimates how much of the post-World War II evolution in employment and average wages by gender can be explained by a model where changing labor demand requirements are the driving force. I argue that a large fraction of the original female employment and wage gaps in mid-century, and the subsequent shrinking of both gaps, can be explained by labor reallocation from brawn-intensive to brain-intensive jobs favoring women's comparative advantage in brain over brawn. Thus, aggregate gender-specific employment and wage gap trends resulting from this labor reallocation are simulated in a general equilibrium model. The material in the second chapter is based on an ongoing joint project with Fatih Guvenen. We argue for a strong link between the rise in the proportion of educated women and the evolution of the divorce rate since mid-century. As women become increasingly educated their bargaining power within marriage rises and their economic situation in singlehood improves making marriage less attractive and divorce more attractive. Similarly, a change in the divorce regime (e.g., U.S. unilateral divorce laws in the 1970s), making marriages less stable, incentivizes women to seek education as insurance against the higher divorce risk. A framework that models the interdependence between education, marriage and divorce is developed, simulated, and contrasted against United States data evidence. The third chapter considers the implications of marital uncertainty on aggregate household savings behavior. To this end, an infinite horizon model withperpetual youth that features uncertainty over marriage quality is developed. Similarly to Cubeddu and Ríos-Rull (1997), I test how much of the savings rate decline from the 1960s to the 1980s can be explained by the changing United States demographic composition, specifically the rise in divorce rates and the fall in marriage rates. / text

The overall goal of this dissertation is to study important questions in public economics. In its three chapters, I look at peak world oil production and its implications for oil prices; cross-country pollution emission rates and implications for institutional quality; and finally, black-white arrest rates and implications for law enforcement discount factors. Each chapter of this dissertation combines new theory with robust empirical work to extend the quantitative frontier of research in public economics. / text

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