Global Value Chains (GVCs) emerged in the last decades and changed the landscape of the international organisation of production. Thanks to the reduction of transport costs and to the development of new technologies the production process increasingly fragmented into single phases carried out by different firms, also located in different countries. This led to the birth of a dense international network of production with multiple commercial and financial linkages between firms and countries. Such a complex architecture offers remarkable advantages, such as reduced procurement costs and high degrees of local/regional specialization, but also exposes to relevant risks and sources of instability, especially in the presence of unexpected shocks. For this reason, the international production network and GVCs emerged as an important topic in the international economic literature. In this globalization process, developed countries have so far had a central role: they have the highest shares of GVCs participation, extract the largest part of value added, and are positioned in the most profitable segments of the chains. However, GVCs may offer remarkable opportunities also for developing countries (Taglioni and Winkler 2016; World Bank 2019, 2020). This project focuses on the role that GVCs may have in the development process of North Africa. This area is trying to emerge from the group of middle income countries and enter a stable development path. However, the financial crisis of 2008 and the series of Arab Spring revolutions have undermined the progresses achieved over the past decades. In this scenario, the COVID-19 pandemic poses further serious concerns. Addressing economic development for the whole area is complex. Despite having suffered common shocks as well as sharing many demographic, cultural and social characteristics, the economic structure of these countries is different. Algeria and Libya are highly dependent on revenues from raw materials such as oil and natural gas; Morocco and Tunisia have developed over the years an advanced manufacturing fabric thanks also to the entry of foreign multinationals into domestic economy; finally, Egypt has an economic structure where traditional sectors, such as shipbuilding and agriculture, coexist along with advanced ones such as ICT. In light also of this diversity, my research is structured as a series of self-contained chapters focused on the analysis of specific issues concerning the role of GVCs on development. In particular, in the first chapter I address the impact of GVCs participation on firm productivity. The issue has been widely discussed in the literature: while first studies pointed out the existence of just a self-selection mechanism into international markets according to productivity, evidence came out about a learning by participating effect. The chapter enriches this literature by investigating Egyptian firms’ performances in the aftermath of the Arab Spring revolution. I find a positive and significant impact of GVCs participation on firm productivity, especially for domestic firms. In the second chapter, I investigate the relationship between firm GVCs participation and FDI activity using French administrative data. Relying on a very recent strand of literature, I hypothesise and prove that the direction of FDI follows and is caused by firm pattern of trade. Introducing governance indicators, I find changes in the general relationship according to countries' development. Moreover, a focus on NA reveals the peculiarity of this area. Finally, in the last chapter, I link the literature on GVCs with the Economic Complexity (EC) approach (Hidalgo et al., 2007; Hidalgo and Hausmann, 2009). The latter provides new tools and metrics to measure countries economic performances and offers interesting insights to study economic development. I link these strands of literature by applying the Product Space and other EC metrics to the study of GVCs. I also provide a new index to measure countries GVCs participation coherent with the EC approach. These contributions are then applied to the case study of NA countries. All in all, the research proves the importance of internationalisation for economic development. Integrating into GVCs, firms may increase their performances, and therefore countries improve their position and widen their linkages into the international production network.

A fundamental research question in regional economic development, is why some regions are able to diversify into new products and industries, while others continue to face challenges in diversification? This doctorate research explores the different pathways to diversification. It follows the three-stage modular structure of DBA for Cranfield School of Management. This thesis consists of a systematic literature review, a single qualitative case study on UAE, and a research synthesis of published cases on Singapore, Norway and UAE. The linking document provides a summary of the three projects and consolidates findings and contributions into a path creation model that provides new understanding on the pathways to regional diversifications. This research integrates existing theoretical foundations of evolutionary economic geography, institutional economic geography, path dependence, industry relatedness, economic complexity, and path creation into a unified conceptual path creation model. It generates propositions, builds a framework and develops a matrix for path creation that integrate context, actors, factors, mechanisms and outcomes shaping regional diversification. It finds that in the context of path dependence and existing conditions of a region, economic actors undertake strategic measures to influence the institutional capabilities to accumulate knowledge and trigger indigenous creation, anchoring, branching, and clustering diversification mechanisms to create complex varieties of related and unrelated diversification outcomes. The institutional collaboration capabilities are found to be instrumental in accumulating knowledge and determining the relatedness and complexity of diversification outcomes. This research further provides a set of integrated platform strategies to guide policy-makers on setting up the pathways to regional diversification.

A fundamental research question in regional economic development, is why some regions are able to diversify into new products and industries, while others continue to face challenges in diversification? This doctorate research explores the different pathways to diversification. It follows the three-stage modular structure of DBA for Cranfield School of Management. This thesis consists of a systematic literature review, a single qualitative case study on UAE, and a research synthesis of published cases on Singapore, Norway and UAE. The linking document provides a summary of the three projects and consolidates findings and contributions into a path creation model that provides new understanding on the pathways to regional diversifications. This research integrates existing theoretical foundations of evolutionary economic geography, institutional economic geography, path dependence, industry relatedness, economic complexity, and path creation into a unified conceptual path creation model. It generates propositions, builds a framework and develops a matrix for path creation that integrate context, actors, factors, mechanisms and outcomes shaping regional diversification. It finds that in the context of path dependence and existing conditions of a region, economic actors undertake strategic measures to influence the institutional capabilities to accumulate knowledge and trigger indigenous creation, anchoring, branching, and clustering diversification mechanisms to create complex varieties of related and unrelated diversification outcomes. The institutional collaboration capabilities are found to be instrumental in accumulating knowledge and determining the relatedness and complexity of diversification outcomes. This research further provides a set of integrated platform strategies to guide policy-makers on setting up the pathways to regional diversification.

Submitted by roberto aragao (4010.aragao@gmail.com) on 2016-04-27T23:14:23Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Aragão R. - Complexidade das Exportações e Produtividade v2.pdf: 1095819 bytes, checksum: d5c3acb2097d76ad35f6a2585beeb895 (MD5) / Rejected by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br), reason: Bom dia Roberto, Para que possamos aprovar seu trabalho são necessários alguns ajustes conforme norma ABNT/APA. * Seu titulo esta diferente da ATA, caso realmente exista essa alteração é preciso o professor orientador vir até a secretaria para fazer a alteração no verso da ATA com o titulo atual. Caso contrário não poderei aprovar. (ATA esta : PRODUTIVIDADE E COMPLEXIDADE ECONÔMICA: UMA ANÁLISE DO CASO BRASILEIRO) * FICHA CATALOGRÁFICA - não esta correta - existe sempre um numero que a Biblioteca informa, este deve ser colocado. * RESUMO - DEVE SER APENAS UMA FOLHA (150 a 500 palavras), com palavras-chave (obrigatório). * ABSTRACT - DEVE SER APENAS UMA FOLHA (150 a 500 palavras), com palavras-chave (obrigatório). Após os ajustes você deve submete-lo novamente para analise e aprovação. Qualquer duvida estamos a disposição, Att. Pâmela Tonsa on 2016-04-28T10:08:03Z (GMT) / Submitted by roberto aragao (4010.aragao@gmail.com) on 2016-04-28T17:54:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Aragão R. - Produtividade e Complexidade Econômica v2.pdf: 1121037 bytes, checksum: ff2b9745593fab666cad4ca5aa73bb2c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2016-04-28T17:56:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Aragão R. - Produtividade e Complexidade Econômica v2.pdf: 1121037 bytes, checksum: ff2b9745593fab666cad4ca5aa73bb2c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-28T20:15:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Aragão R. - Produtividade e Complexidade Econômica v2.pdf: 1121037 bytes, checksum: ff2b9745593fab666cad4ca5aa73bb2c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-01 / In the context of economic development, this study has as its main objective to explorer the relationship between international trade and productivity. After making a wide review on theories of international trade and theories of economic development, we seek to determine the causal relationship between these two variables. The question that follows refers to the direction of causality, i.e., productivity, generates international trade or international trade generates productivity? This work suggests that both directions are possible and the difference is just in the productivity component being analyzed. Thus, productivity at the product level (structural) generates trade, as argued Smith (1776) and Ricardo (1817), but trade generates productivity (within) as argued Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007) and McMillan and Rodrik (2011). Further, the study makes a comprehensive analysis of the methods of decomposition of productivity, concluding that there is more than one way of doing this decomposition and the interpretation of each of these approaches differ and may bias the findings. In addition, the decomposition of productivity is made in its components in two distinct databases: 10-Sector Database of GGDC and national accounts of IBGE, concluding that, depending on the base, the results can vary significantly. Similarly, within a structuralist approach, this research differentiate sectors that have the greatest growth potential from traditional sectors with lower growth potential. Defining the complexity of exports as the concept developed by Hausmann at al (2014), this investigation estimates using Brazilian data, through a dynamic panel model, the coefficients of a suggested equation to explain variations in the static structural productivity effect. The estimated model suggests that the complexity of exports significantly and positively affects the structural component of productivity. Thus, it can be said that exports of more sophisticated products boosts productivity through its structural component. / No contexto do desenvolvimento econômico, este trabalho tem como principal objetivo explorar a relação entre comércio internacional e produtividade. Após fazer uma ampla discussão sobre as teorias do comércio internacional e as teorias do desenvolvimento econômico, busca-se definir a relação de causalidade entre essas duas variáveis. A pergunta que se segue refere-se ao sentido da causalidade, ou seja, produtividade gera comércio ou comércio gera produtividade? Esse trabalho sugere que os dois sentidos são possíveis e a diferença encontra-se justamente no componente da produtividade que está sendo analisado. Assim, produtividade, no nível do produto (intrasetorial) gera comércio, tal como argumentam Smith (1776) e Ricardo (1817), mas comércio gera produtividade (intersetorial) tal como argumentam Hausmann, Hwang e Rodrik (2007) e McMillan e Rodrik (2011). Na sequência, o estudo faz uma ampla análise dos métodos de decomposição da produtividade, concluindo que existe mais de uma forma de se fazer essa decomposição e que a interpretação de cada uma dessas abordagens difere podendo enviesar as conclusões. Adicionalmente, é feita a decomposição da produtividade nos seus componentes utilizando duas bases de dados distintas: 10-Sector Database do GGDC e contas nacionais do IBGE, concluindo que, a depender da base, os resultados encontrados podem variar significativamente. Da mesma forma, dentro de uma abordagem estruturalista, diferenciam-se setores que possuem maior potencial de crescimento de setores tradicionais com menor potencial de crescimento. Definindo a complexidade das exportações a partir do conceito desenvolvido por Hausmann at al (2014), estimam-se para o caso brasileiro recente, através de um modelo de painel dinâmico, os coeficientes de uma equação para explicar variações no efeito intersetorial estático da produtividade. O modelo estimado sugere que a complexidade das exportações impacta significativa e positivamente o componente estrutural da produtividade. Assim, pode-se dizer que uma pauta de exportações com produtos mais sofisticados favorece o crescimento da produtividade via seu componente intersetorial.

Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2022 / This study investigated the relationship between economic complexity and the three mac-roeconomic variables in a comparative setting between selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) and BRICS countries. Economic complexity as a development index reveals how sophisticated a country is as shown by its exports structure through the Product Com-plexity Index (PCI) and Economic Complexity Index (ECI). The three macroeconomic var-iables are gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita), current account and fixed investment (gross fixed capita formation) for the period 1994 to 2018.The first three set study objectives were investigated on whether there exists a short and long-run relation-ship through a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL). The the fourth objective was to test for causality through a standard Granger causality, and fifth, to forecast the macroeconomic variables for the foreseeable future utilising the Impulse Response Func-tion (IRF) and the variance decomposition techniques, these are complementary tech-niques. The last two objectives were to draw a comparative analysis upon the findings, and to relate on the product complexities and economic landscape in the selected SSA and BRICS. Reporting on the ECI-GDP per capita nexus, the PARDL estimates revealed a positive and significant association between ECI and GDP per capita in both the se-lected SSA and BRICS in the long-run. There was no Granger causal effect between ECI and GDP per capita for both set of countries. The concern was in relation to forecasting GDP per capita due to a shock in ECI. The selected SSA GDP per capita response to a shock in ECI was neutral when adopting the IRF technique, and the variance decompo-sition also revealed small estimates in both the short and long-run, below 1%. In the BRICS economies, there was a meaningful positive reaction from a shock in ECI when deploying the IRF technique, while the variance decomposition had a 3% response in the long run when seen through the variance decomposition. On the current account-ECI relationship, the PARDL estimates exposed that there was a positive and significant impact from ECI on the current account in both the groups in the long-run significant while short-run results were insignificant. Granger causality could not detect any causal effect between ECI and current account in the selected SSA, while in the BRICS countries there was a unidirectional causal effect from ECI to current account. When forecasting the current account, the selected SSA reacted negatively to a shock in v ECI seen through the IRF, and the variance decomposition also revealed a small reaction in any period. In the BRICS case, current account’s response was a positive and explo-sive reaction from a shock in ECI when applying the IRF technique. The VD revealed a higher change in current account was explained by a shock in ECI. On the ECI-Fixed Investment, the PARDL estimates showed that there was a long-run positive and signifi-cant effect between ECI and fixed investment in bothgroups. However, the Granger causal results revealed no presence of causality in the selected SSA, while there was causal unidirectional effect from ECI to fixed investment. The IRF technique revealed a negative fixed investment reaction from a shock in ECI, and the variance decomposition results revealed a small reaction in fixed investment in the selected SSA. In the BRICS case, there was a positive and explosive fixed investment emanating from a shock in ECI. Utilising the variance decomposition fixed investment in BRICS was explained by inno-vative shocks in ECI in the long run. On the last two objectives, comparatively the selected SSA countries are disadvantaged as they are concentrated in negative ECI as seen in the descriptive statistics, reflecting that they are still much less developed. This tells us that they are less industrialised as compared to the BRICS nations who are better off. These selected SSA economies are not developed enough as compared to the BRICS nations. The SSA region needs to learn from the leading BRICS countries by creating a conducive environment for a better de-velopment of innovation that improves the domestic value chain that produces knowledge-based products for the export market. The rest of the selected SSA region should form part of economic integrations with the more developed countries that offer mutual beneficiation like South Africa to fast track the developmental of their states. There is a need to modernise the agricultural and agro-industries. The region should harness the full potential of its agricultural sector. This will create a large global market share and perhaps increase the current account outlook through trade with more efficient agro-pro-cessed products. Africa needs to scale up investment in many fronts from government to private investment to improve infrastructure, more so that the scale of needs is so much in the continent.

La région MENA est aujourd’hui, au centre d’ambitieux enjeux économiques essentiellement en matière d’intégration régionale et de transformation structurelle. Toutefois, les Etats Arabes de cette région ont présenté des défaillances et une vulnérabilité importante dans le système économique et productif au lendemain des mouvements et des bouleversements politiques, économiques, sociales et populaires de très grande ampleur. Ces chocs apportent un lot de nouveaux défis à relever. L’objectif principal de cette thèse est d’étudier les nouvelles dynamiques du processus de transformation structurelle afin de proposer de nouvelles trajectoires de développement pour ces pays. Dans cette optique, nous abordons les questions liées aux déterminants et aux effets spatiaux de ce processus, à la relation entre d’une part la complexité économique et la pollution de l’air, et d’autre part, la complexité économique et les inégalités de genre en éducation. Pour cela, nous considérons un panel dynamique de 133 pays qui couvre une période longue et récente (1984 à 2014). En utilisant des données récentes et en intégrant des paramètres jusque-là peu utilisés, nous mettons en évidence des caractéristiques particulières du processus de complexification des systèmes productifs. D’un point de vue général, les résultats révèlent que les performances en matière de complexification des systèmes productifs sont très hétérogènes au sein des pays MENA et que leurs déterminants dépendent des caractéristiques des économies. Les fortes disparités observées s’expliquent, au-delà de l’effet significatif du revenu par habitant, par une carence dans le système institutionnel, éducatif en particulier dans l’accès à l’innovation, mais aussi à l’abondance des ressources naturelles ou encore à l’attractivité des investissements directs étrangers. Au-delà des caractéristiques individuelles des économies, l’analyse spatiale montre que des facteurs géographiques tels que le taux d’urbanisation, les accords commerciaux, et la localisation spatiale jouent un rôle très important dans le processus de transformation structurelle. Nous apportons également, grâce aux outils tirés de la mécanique classique, des réponses aux limites des modèles économiques traditionnels qui peinent à démontrer l’existence d’un processus d’accélération du développement économique. / MENA countries is today, at the center of ambitious economic stakes mainly in regional integration and structural transformation. However, the Arab States of this region have suffered great shortcomings and vulnerability in the economic and productive system in the aftermath of massive political, economic, social and popular upheavals and upheavals. These shocks present a number of new challenges. The main objective of this thesis is to study the new dynamics of the structural transformation process in order to propose new development trajectories for these countries. In this context, we address issues related to the spatial determinants and effects of this process, the relationship between economic complexity and air pollution on the one hand, and economic complexity and inequalities on the other education. For this, we consider a dynamic panel of 133 countries covering an important and recent period (1984 to 2014). Using recent data and integrating previously little used parameters, we highlight particular characteristics of the process of complexification of productive systems. From a general point of view, the results reveal that the productivity performance of productive systems is very heterogeneous within MENA countries and that their determinants depend on the characteristics of the economies. The large disparities observed are explained, beyond the significant effect of per capita income, by a deficiency in the institutional system, particularly in terms of access to innovation, but also to the abundance of natural resources or the attractiveness of foreign direct investment. Beyond the individual characteristics of economies, spatial analysis shows that geographical factors such as urbanization rate, trade agreements, but especially spatial location play a very important role in the process of structural transformation.We also bring, thanks to the tools derived from classical mechanics, answers to the limits of traditional economic models which are difficult to demonstrate the existence of a process of accelerating economic development.

Cette thèse adopte une approche analytique interrégionale de trois régions économiques pour évaluer les connaissances productives et la diplomatie dans le contexte d’intégration régionale, et en parallèle, les déterminants de la création d'entreprises. Du point de vue de l'intégration européenne, nous introduisons une nouvelle méthodologie de contrôle synthétique pour évaluer l'impact de l'adhésion à l'UE sur l'indice de complexité économique des nouveaux États membres d'Europe centrale et orientale. Nos résultats indiquent que l'adhésion à l'UE a joué un rôle catalyseur pour la connaissance productive des pays portant de faibles niveaux de complexité avant l'adhésion, permettant un taux de développement plus élevé dans la sophistication de l'espace d'exportation de leurs produits. En élargissant notre analyse à tous les pays européens et aux États d’Afrique du Nord, nous procédons dans un deuxième temps à l’analyse des déterminants du commerce des infrastructures institutionnelles et logistiques en élargissant le modèle de Gravité pour y incorporer des éléments de diplomatie (notamment la présence d’ambassades et d’ambassadeurs). Nos résultats démontrent les avantages des infrastructures immatérielles et matérielles ainsi que de l'activité diplomatique sur le commerce bilatéral des PECO et de l'Afrique du Nord, confirmant l'importance de ces variables en tant que moteurs de l'intégration régionale. Dans une dernière partie, nous concentrons notre analyse sur Fédération de Russie en tant que région géographique en introduisant une régression panel des déterminants de l’entrée et de la sortie d’entreprises. Cette évaluation empirique conclut que les défaillances institutionnelles et l’environnement politico-économique ont des effets significatifs sur la création et la destruction d’entreprises russes, avec une estimation robuste du prix mondial du pétrole (quelle que soit la différence entre les régions cibles) suggérant une forte exposition de chaque région russe à une crise mondiale. / This thesis takes a cross-regional analytical approach of three distinct economic areas to evaluate productive knowledge and diplomacy in the context of regional integration alongside determinants of business creation. From the angle of European integration, we introduce a new synthetic control methodology to evaluate the impact of EU accession on the economic complexity index of new CEE member states its results indicating that accession to the EU acted as a catalyst for the productive knowledge of countries with low levels of complexity before accession, allowing a higher rate of development in the sophistication of their product export space. Expanding our analysis to include all European countries and North African states, we proceed in a second stage to analyse institutional and logistical infrastructure determinants of trade by extending the traditional Gravity model to incorporate elements of diplomacy (including the presence of embassies and ambassadors). Our results demonstrate the benefits of soft and hard infrastructure as well as diplomatic activity on the bilateral trade fixed effect CEE and North African countries, validating their importance of these variables as powerful drivers of regional integration. In a final part, we turn our analysis to the Russian Federation as a regional geography with a panel regression analysis of the determinants of firm entry and exit. The empirical evaluation concludes that institutional failures and the politico-economic environment exhibit statistically significant and economically meaningful effects both on the creation and destruction of Russian firms, with a robust estimate of the world oil price (irrespective of the difference in target regions) suggesting a possible high exposure of each Russian region to a global crisis.