by Ho Yan Wing Bosco. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1999. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 89-91). / Abstract also in Chinese. / ACKNOWLEDGMENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.v / CHAPTER / Chapter I --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II --- GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE ECONOMY OF HONG KONG --- p.7 / Chapter III --- METHODOLOGY AND THE SPECIFICATION OF THE ERC MODEL --- p.11 / Unit-Root Tests / Co-integration and Error Correction Model / The ERC Model / Chapter IV --- THE ESTIMATED MODEL --- p.44 / Chapter V --- POLICY SIMULATIONS AND THE DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER ANALYSIS --- p.62 / Chapter VI --- CONCLUSION --- p.69 / TABLES --- p.71 / ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.82 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.89

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Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the first essay of this thesis, a medium scale DSGE model is developed and estimated for the South African economy. When used for forecasting, the model is found to outperform private sector economists when forecasting CPI inflation, GDP growth and the policy rate over certain horizons. In the second essay, the benchmark DSGE model is extended to include the yield on South African 10-year government bonds. The model is then used to decompose the 10-year yield spread into (1) the structural shocks that contributed to its evolution during the inflation targeting regime of the South African Reserve Bank, as well as (2) an expected yield and a term premium. In addition, it is found that changes in the South African term premium may predict future real economic activity. Finally, the need for DSGE models to take account of financial frictions became apparent during the recent global financial crisis. As a result, the final essay incorporates a stylised banking sector into the benchmark DSGE model described above. The optimal response of the South African Reserve Bank to financial shocks is then analysed within the context of this structural model.

Includes bibliographical references. Addresses the question of what an economic model of the world wine market suggests will happen to wine production, consumption, trade and prices in various regions in the early 21st century. A subsidiary issue is what difference would global or European regional wine liberalisation make to that outlook, according to such a model. Accompanying CD-ROM comprises spreadsheet written by Nick Berger, November 2000, for the Windows and Office97 versions of Excel; a seven region world wine model (WWM7) - base version projecting the world wine market 1996-2005 as a non-linear Armington model. System requirements for accompanying CD-ROM: IBM compatible computer ; Microsoft Excel 97 or later.

The main objective of this study is to contribute toward an analytical and empirical work on the oil-based developing economy of Iran. It focuses on the aggregate behavior of the Iranian economy through a simple linear econometric model. After a survey of the literature on the theoretical framework of macroeconomic models for the developing countries in general, and for the oil exporting developing countries in particular, a linear econometric model for the Iranian economy is formulated and its logical and economical aspects are explained. The proposed model consists of basic consumption, production, foreign trade, and employment relationships. Estimation of the behavioral equations are carried out by Ordinary Least Square and Two Stage Least Square estimators. The model is estimated over the period of 1959-76. Data published by the Plan and Budget Organization of Iran in the 1978 edition of the "Economic Trends of Iran" are used for the estimation of the parameters of the model. Historical simulation of the model has been performed to test the validity and the fitness of the model as a whole. The results obtained from the estimation of the consumption functions seem to indicate that the aggregate Iranian consumption behavior can be best explained by Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis. An attempt has been made to estimate the aggregate production function of the urban sector according to various Cobb-Douglas production functions and linear production function with constant returns to scale. All of these specifications gave implausible results. In general, the results of this study demonstrate that the links between different sectors of the Iranian economy are very weak and the import substitution strategy of the government during the period of study failed to establish a genuine domestic industrial base and to reduce its dependence on foreign resources.

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Linking education, science and technology with national development is a subject of increasing concern in many developing countries. In this dissertation, we have studied empirically the contribution, or lack of it, which public investment in education, science and technology has made to the attainment of development objectives in Cameroon since 1960. Using a small computable macroeconometric model of Cameroon incorporating some major relevant quantitative aspects of the knowledge sector, we have investigated the effects on that sector and on the overall economic system of increased education- and research-service resources. We have also analyzed some of the major qualitative factors that are important in this sector. / Our results suggest that, given existing patterns of education, science and technology in Cameroon, the contribution of public investment in this sector may be small compared to the potential contribution suggested in the literature. The implications of these results are examined for policy-making and planning at the national level.

In 1993, Kenya liberalised its trade policy and allowed the Kenyan Shillings to freely float. This openness has left Kenya's domestic prices vulnerable to the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. One of the objectives of the Central Bank of Kenya is to maintain inflation levels at sustainable levels. Thus it has become necessary to determine the influence that exchange rate changes have on domestic prices given that one of the major determinants of inflation is exchange rate movements. For this reason, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices in Kenya. In addition, it takes into account the direction and size of changes in the exchange rates to determine whether the exchange rate fluctuations are symmetric or asymmetric. The thesis uses quarterly data ranging from 1993:Ql - 2008:Q4 as it takes into account the period when the process of liberalization occurred. The empirical estimation was done in two stages. The first stage was estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) co integration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage entailed estimating the impulse response and variance decomposition functions as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. In determining the asymmetric aspect of the analysis, the study followed Pollard and Coughlin (2004) and Webber (2000) frameworks in analysing asymmetry with respect to appreciation and depreciation and large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results obtained showed that ERPT to Kenya is incomplete but relatively low at about 36 percent in the long run. In terms of asymmetry, the results showed that ERPT is found to be higher in periods of appreciation than depreciation. This is in support of market share and binding quantity constraints theory. In relation to size changes, the results show that size changes have no significant impact on ERPT in Kenya.

This study attempts to address the performance of military and civilian regimes in promoting socioeconomic development and providing military policy resources in the Third World. Using pooled cross-sectional time series analysis, three models of socioeconomic and military policy performance are estimated for 66 countries in the Third World for the period 1965-1985. These models include the progressive, corporate self-interest, and conditional. The results indicate that socioeconomic and military resource policies are not significantly affected by military control. Specifically, neither progressive nor corporate self-interest models are supported by Third World data. In addition, the conditional model is not confirmed by the data. Thus, a simple distinction between military and civilian regimes is not useful in understanding the consequences of military rule.