Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Management Sciences: Hospitality and Tourism Management, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2017. / The study addressed four questions using secondary annual time series data: (1) How is event spend related to economic development? (2) How are the physical attributes of the region (natural capital) related to economic development?(3) How is social cohesion related to economic development? (4) How does human capital influence economic development? The study period starts in 1994 and ends in 2016, accordingly 100 data points were pulled from the time series. Error Correction Model and Ordinary Least Squares were used as analytical tools to test the regression model developed for the study. Economic development is the dependent variable and is represented by tourism employment data sourced from Statistics South Africa. The independent variables are event spend represented by expenditure figures for culture, sports and recreation published by Statistics SA; human capital was measured using gross educational ratio for secondary education accessed from the World Bank database; natural capital was measured using the gross domestic product attained from Statistics South Africa; and social cohesion was measured using social expenditure data acquired from the South African Reserve Bank. The theoretical framework that underpins the study is the geography political theory as espoused by different authors including Collier (2007) and Kollosov (2001). On the basis of this theoretical framework the study seeks to look at the effect of event spend, natural capital, human capital and social cohesion on economic development. The findings of the study show that there is no relationship between economic development, event spend and human capital. However a relationship was established between natural capital and social cohesion. The results of the study will inform policymakers in the allocation of budgets towards major events. It will also contribute to the equitable distribution of resources to promote social cohesion in communities. / M

This thesis is an assessment of the experience of small town local economic development in four towns namely Graaff-Reinet, Somerset East, Aberdeen and Pearston situated in the Eastern Cape Midlands, South Africa. It aims firstly to provide a critical overview of these selected small town economies before evaluating their local responses to the changing economic climate. The study is contextualized within the framework of locality development and emphasizes the heterogeneity of small towns with regards to physical, socio-economic, demographic and historical elements. From this, the original economic reasons for existence of these small towns are ascertained and then the major changes that occurred are identified. Amongst other aspects, the changes in the agricultural sector, the demographic changes particularly with regard to the significant increase in the urban population and the fluctuations in the quantity and types of businesses have all played a part in transforming the small towns' economies. As a result of these changes and many external driving forces such as changes in the regional and national economy, there are many severe challenges facing these small towns especially regarding the high unemployment rate, the associated poverty, HIV/AIDS and the low volume or absence of private investment into these localities. The responses of these small towns to the daunting challenges that they face have been considered in terms of Local Economic Development (LED) strategies that have been implemented. The LED initiatives in each town are examined in the context of their general characteristics, objectives, achievements and challenges. Emphasis is placed on Somerset East as it is the only town in the study area that has a development agency actively promoting various forms of LED. What has ultimately been established is: in all four towns, LED is not making a significant or meaningful difference and that natural market and economic forces play an important role in shaping and dictating the local economy. Somerset East is the only town where the economy could potentially be restructured with the proposed mega market-led approach to tourism and planning in the form of the Boschberg Development node. Four sectors perceived to be required for locality development are considered in this study, namely the export sector, the human resources, the local service sector and the government agencies. It is ascertained that although these sectors need to be part of a symbiotic relationship to promote and enhance economic development, they are not present in all the towns and as a result development, at both a household and a macro town level, is further hindered. Ultimately, these small towns in the Eastern Cape Midlands defy the notion that they are dying. 'Growth' and 'decline' have been two central features throughout this thesis and one of the biggest contradictions and challenges that these small towns face is the population growth with a declining or stagnant economy that cannot accommodate the increased number of people.

This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.

Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.

This research is born out of recognition of the challenges Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) in the private sector faces in South Africa, with preferential procurement being one of the components of South Africa's Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment Strategy. Over the past years, South Africa has witnessed the birth of a new economy, one that allows for investment in its people, makes provision for sustainable growth through skills transfer and development, and ensures economic empowerment. The focus of this research is the Preferential Procurement strategy implemented at DaimlerChrysler South Africa (DCSA) as part of its overall Black Economic Empowerment strategy, the perceptions and expectations of how the current BEE preferential procurement strategy should work versus the perceived performance of how it is working. An official definition of Black Economic Empowerment is presented in the study, followed by barriers to growth of BEE suppliers. The aim of defining Black Economic Empowerment is to provide a good reference point against which an organization like DaimlerChrysler can assess the implementation of its preferential procurement programmes. Having discussed the above, there will be a reflection on government scorecard and a brief discussion of the two charters namely, mining and financial services charter. The study also presents the following requirements for a successful BEE corporate strategy: Strategic intent; External Balanced Scorecard; Financial Assistance; Skills development; Communication. A research methodology for conducting this study and data analysis is presented, followed by limitations of the study and recommendations for further research. It is expected that the knowledge gained from this study will help to I. Demonstrate the need to change perceptions and behaviour regarding Black Economic Empowerment. 2. Assist procurement officials to include BEE objectives into their procurement strategy. 3. Identify policy implications and assist in improving DCSA's Black Economic Empowerment Procurement strategy.

Rural development is a priority for poverty alleviation and development in developing countries, as the majority of the poor live in rural areas. Information and knowledge are key strategic resources for social and economic development as they empower rural communities with the ability to expand their choices through knowing what works best in their communities. Information and communication technologies (ICT) play a significant role in supporting rural development activities through providing supportive development information and creating essential interconnectivities between rural areas and more developed regions. However, rural ICT for development (ICT4D) is still at best a ‘working hypothesis’, faced with barriers and challenges associated with implementation and use in the rural environment; which threaten the success, sustainability or relevance of an ICT intervention. Many key questions remain largely unanswered, with no concrete or credible data to support a wide range of claims concerning the use of ICT for development. The evaluation of rural ICT projects is indispensable as it determines the need, effectiveness, impact, sustainability and extent of the awareness of the contribution such projects or programmes can make in poverty alleviation and development. Even so, existing ICT4D evaluations are confrontedwith shortcomings and challenges which influence the accuracy and reliability of evaluation conclusions. These shortcomings highlight the need to embark on a more comprehensive evaluation approach, sensitive to the rural environment. This research study was aimed at developing a comprehensive rural ICT evaluation framework to assess ICT projects and interventions that work toward supporting poverty eradication in rural communities. A multi-method approach was used to determine the multiple variables and components associated with rural ICT evaluation, and then to determine how these variables interrelate. The approach is founded on programme evaluation, ICT for development evaluation, and information systems evaluation. Firstly, key domains of programme evaluations combined with an exploration of the need and shortcomings of ICT4D evaluation, contributed to the development of a template to analyse existing ICT4D evaluation frameworks and information systems frameworks, based on a selection of criteria. The combined analysis of the two groups of frameworks compares and contrasts key characteristics that form the structure of a comprehensive evaluation. This analysis and a review of programme evaluation enabled the development of a Rural ICT Comprehensive Evaluation Framework (RICT-CEF) that encompasses the key components essential for a comprehensive evaluation of rural ICT projects. The theoretical framework aims to inform ICT intervention to improve and support rural development, through the application of fundamental and interconnected evaluation domains sensitive to the rural environment, throughout the project’s lifecycle. In order to obtain a better understanding and application of the RICT-CEF, a real-life case study investigation of the Siyakhula Living Lab reveals the lessons learned (shortcomings and suitability) from applying a prototype of the framework in a rural environment. The study is characteristically a rich case study, as the investigation occurs at two levels: 1) The actual evaluation of the project to obtain results to improve or guide the project, through applying domains of the RICT-CEF, and 2) Observing and investigating the application of the RICT-CEF framework to learn lessons from its evaluation process in a real-life context. The research study reveals the compatibility of the RICT-CEF framework in a real-life rural ICT intervention case, and builds lessons learned for enhancing the framework and guiding future evaluations in ICT4D. The RICT-CEF can possibly be viewed as a platform for the key domains and processes essential for the evaluation of ICT4D interventions; which can be customised for a variety of ICT projects, such that a comparative assessment of projects can provide measurement and further awareness of the impact of rural ICT in developing countries.

Economic development remains elusive for many world economies, but especially those of African countries. The current global inequalities in terms of GNP per capita and human living standards between developed and developing nations have ensured that the challenges of food insecurities are only some of the many negative experiences of underdevelopment in the African continent. Hence, delivery pressures are increasing on policy makers and researchers to provide tangible and timely economic solutions to the resilient state of underdevelopment. In the policy fights against the challenges posed by a lack of development in South Africa, the agricultural sector has in the past and continues in the present to play a central role. Such is the case because the majority of citizens rely on agricultural production activities for their livelihoods. For instance, even though the sector only contributed four percent towards the national Gross Domestic Product in 2006, in the Eastern Cape Province, more than seventy percent of the total population resided in rural areas. Moreover, in 2004 more than sixty percent of the national formal and informal employment levels were found in the sector. These economic indicators do not only reinforce the assertions that high levels of geographical and sectoral inequalities exist in the country’s economy, but they also illustrate the importance of the agricultural sector in public policy attempts, which are aimed at achieving food security alongside long-term developmental objectives. Some economists, especially the proponents of institutionalism, have argued that most of the recommendations to public policy interventions from mainstream economic research endeavours are not adequately helpful. The recommendations generally lack well considered and socially effective ideas, mainly because there remains some level of ignorance about the impacts that institutions have on economic and social systems. Some argue that this ignorance is reflected in (flawed) hedonistic and rationalist assumptions made about economic actors and in the methodological thinking of many research designs and economic analyses. The misuse of formal tools and statistical methods, for example, are some of the important factors, which have led to failures of the discipline of economics to provide effective policy solutions to problems of underdevelopment and poverty, especially in poor country environments. The thesis, having taken account of the majority of criticisms levelled against the classical and new-classical economic schools of thought, argues that the discipline as a whole lacks a paradigmatic integration of institutional and new-classical economic perspectives to offer appropriate guidelines for a methodology aimed at achieving socially responsive research outputs. The lack of this integration has resulted in a skewed selection of methods by economists, which are employed in research without a supportive and in-depth understanding of institutional and social factors. To support the thesis, a more effective and integrated framework for economic research is developed and presented with case study illustrations in a cumulative manner. The 20th century history of agricultural policies in South Africa, the agricultural and institutional case studies from the Eastern Cape Province alongside reviews of other agricultural studies are all used in presenting a case for rigorous institutional investigations in general economic research. These are also used in developing the proposed integrated framework, which aims to give guidance in developing research methods, which are more socially responsive. Having shown the usefulness of the proposed research framework, the thesis recommends that public policy interventions (at national and local levels) should aim to eliminate all types of institutions which have high associated transactional costs. The interventions should also encourage the emergence and growth of the types of institutions, which present the lowest costs to initiatives of economic development. In the primary case studies from the Eastern Cape Province, the insecurity of land tenure and the various local initiatives of business ventures are highlighted as two examples of the types of institutions, which respectively present high and low transactional costs to local initiatives of agricultural and economic development.

The study explores the suitability of the evaluation criteria used in Microprojects Programme Trust (MPT), by looking at hard and soft components of the development programme. In this sense hard components of development refer to those components of projects that are tangible and can be physically observed and can bring material changes to the life of the community. Soft components of development refer to those components of projects that bring qualitative transformation to the life of the community, i.e. increased levels of awareness, human well-being and the empowerment process that addresses the community's abstract needs, these are not tangible and often cannot be physically observed. Midway through its contract periods MPT evaluate all projects. The purpose of these mid term evaluations is to make recommendations to MPT on future approaches and methodology for community development and operations. The mid-term evaluation also influences the distribution and allocation of resources and funding. It was therefore vital that the criteria used are subject to tests and critical analysis so as to assess their validity. The assessment of the mid-term evaluation criteria used in MPT projects has been to further determine the appropriateness or suitability of the evaluation criteria as an instrument to measure and guide the MPT community development approach in the Eastern Cape. The method used was to conduct focus group discussions so as to get an insight into the local community situation as well as to assess non-tangible improvements and changes that have occurred in the life of the community as a result of the project. The information generated was used to compare what the community believe they achieved with what the official mid-term evaluation reports indicate was assessed and achieved and that was contrasted with what the literature recommends should have been assessed. The study found that the mid-term evaluations conducted on MPT projects have no social context in which the evaluations themselves were conducted. The terms of reference and criteria were based on the programme design which was formulated and compiled by the European Union without the participation of the local South African community. The findings also indicated that projects become unsuccessful or partly successful if the "soft" components which have a bearing on social and economic realities are neglected. The thesis ends with recommendations on how the mid-term evaluations as well as MPT programme can be developed to be more responsive to the needs as identified by the communities themselves. It is strongly believed that this study will provide a valuable contribution towards increasing the ability of MPT programme to bring about both material and qualitative transformation to the I ives of the disadvantaged community of the Eastern Cape whilst ensuring that the mid-term evaluations are developed and shaped to become an appropriate instrument to measure and guide MPT programme approach to community development.

On first impression, it would seem that globalisation is producing an increasingly homogenous trans-border world, whereby, as a result of key changes including the impact of technological improvements, foreign travel, the spread of westernised cultural identities, market capitalism, and liberal democracy, the point has been reached where it is now becoming difficult to tell different localities apart. In this process, it is often forgotten what role individual places assume in the creation of this globalised world and that not all will benefit from globalisation. In many respects, locally specific activities, including urban renewal, place promotion, and infrastructural developments pursued within a selection of the planet's most strategically connected cities are now the primary catalysts of, and the influence behind, globalisation. Likewise, community-businesses, rural micro-industries, and alternative livelihoods are some of the key mechanisms that under-privileged localities in developing countries are employing to either respond to the marginalization imposed by globalisation, or to simply ensure survival. The emergence of localisation theory has therefore acknowledged and exemplified the importance of the locality in the context of the global economy as either a key node within it or a point within which people must engage in coping strategies, often as a result of the negative impacts of globalisation. In recent years, varying styles of locality-based development have become central to enhancing both the pro-growth global competitiveness of a number of South African localities, as well as for initiating pro-poor interventions in several of the country's smaller towns and rural areas. In the City of Cape Town, millions of Rands have been invested by the municipality and the private sector in urban regeneration strategies,which have led to an economic rebirth in the city centre and have generated numerous jobs in the tertiary and construction sectors that have helped to enhance the city's global stature. In Ndlambe Municipality, two community-businesses, which have received national funding and have strong municipal support, employ fifty people between them and have demonstrated the advantages of participatory action in propoor local development, within the context of the open market. In Emalahleni Municipality, attempts at locality-based development have been instigated directly by the local poor themselves and have been organised by members of the community in the face of non-existent local government support, which have resulted in the creation of several hundred income-earning opportunities for area residents. In summary, these three cases illustrate a range of approaches to locality-based development cunently undertaken in South Africa by different localities possessing widely differing resources, skills, and degrees of global connectivity in order to initiate growth and enhance standards of living. From a theoretical perspective this study provides a South African slant on global theories and processes and further indicates the role that a series of localities in the South are playing in a changing global system. / KMBT_363 / Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in

South African trade unions affiliated to Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) have taken advantage of the arrival of democracy and newly found opportunities available through Black Economic Empowerment to venture into the world of business by setting up their own investment companies. The declared desire behind these ventures was to break the stranglehold of white capital on the economy and to extend participation in the economic activities of the country to previously disadvantaged communities. Using the National Union of Mineworkers and the Mineworkers’ Investment Company as case studies, this dissertation seeks to determine whether unions affiliated to the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) are advancing the struggle for socialism through their investment schemes. Secondly, the dissertation determines whether, in the activities of the schemes, internal democracy is preserved and strengthened. The theoretical framework of this dissertation emerges from arguments advanced by Lenin and Gramsci on the limitations of trade unions in terms of their role in the struggle against capitalism. In addition, the argument draws on the assertions by Michels regarding the proneness of trade union leadership to adopt oligarchic tendencies in their approach to leadership. Of interest is how, according to Gramsci, trade unions are prone to accepting concessions from the capitalist system that renders them ameliorative rather than transformative. Drawing from Michels’ ‘iron law of oligarchy’, the thesis examines whether there is space for ordinary members of the unions to express views on the working of the union investment companies. By looking at the extent to which the investment initiatives of the companies mirror the preferences of the ordinary members of the unions, one can determine the level of disjuncture between the two. The study relies on data collected through interviews and documentary material. Interviews provide first-hand knowledge of how respondents experience the impact of the investment schemes. This provides a balanced analysis given that documents reflect policy stances whereas interviews provide data on whether these have the stated impact. What the study shows is a clear absence of space for ordinary members to directly influence the workings of union investment companies. It is also established that, in their current form, the schemes operate more as a perpetuation of the capitalist logic than offering an alternative system.