This thesis explores the role the Federal Republic of Germany played in the transformation of the Western international economic system between 1972 and 1976. It has two main aims: first, it examines Bonn's activities in the shaping of the Western response to the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the first oil crisis 1973174 and the 1975 world recession; and second, it studies the effect of these actions on West Germany's political position in the Western alliance. As will be shown, Bonn was able to have a significant impact via four means: an ability to manage its economic and political goals; clever use of its economic strength; the adoption of a mediating role among its Western allies, above all the United States and France; and the strong political leadership of Helmut Schmidt (as finance minister, then chancellor). As a final consequence, the Federal Republic through a combination of its actions, the waning of American, French and British economic and political power, the transformation of the institutional setting and the advancement of economic issues to the fore of political debates achieved the permanent enhancement of its political status within the Western alliance.

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A renewed discussion about inequality and economic divergence between countries has re-introduced the debate about the role played by natural resources, geography and the institutions of settler capitalism as promoters of growth and development in the long-term. Countries like Canada, Argentina, Australia and New Zealand, among others, expanded their frontiers of settlement, created important infrastructural transformations, received millions of immigrants and capital and became the most important producers of natural resources for exports during the first era of globalization (c. 1850-1914). Comparative studies that study these countries’ development have particularly praised the democratic distribution of land in small lots, like in the United States and Canada, which created a class of successful farmers. With the help of Geographic Information system (GIS), this dissertation revisits the political economy of Western Canada settlement by using a historical economic geography approach. Previous investigations on Western Canada settlement used decennial census records to estimate where settlers established themselves. This method is problematic as the expansion of the frontier of settlement happened on a very dynamic period where settlers moved frequently from one region to another. The use of annual postal records, instead, provides a more complete understanding of the region. As postal facilities opened where immigrants had already established themselves, the location of post offices gives a more nuanced understanding of the evolution of the frontier of settlement. This study reconstructed the historical postal and railroad networks that revealed an uneven pattern of settlement with more details. Similarly, by analyzing updated homesteads entries and cancellations data during the period, this dissertation found that farmers’ failures were more frequent than the classical literature assumed, particularly after the 1890s, a period scholars regarded as one of more stable settlement. The production of space and the formation of the institutions in Western Canada from the 1850s to 1914 shows the dynamic of capitalist expansion and natural resources exploitation in a new territory. The location of post offices helps to understand in a granular form the uneven development of regions and the emergence of small communities that later became nodes of an important railroad network.

Generally, Canada has been ignored in the literature on the colonial origins of divergence with most of the attention going to the United States. Late nineteenth century estimates of income per capita show that Canada was relatively poorer than the United States and that within Canada, the French and Catholic population of Quebec was considerably poorer. Was this gap long standing? Some evidence has been advanced for earlier periods, but it is quite limited and not well-suited for comparison with other societies. This thesis aims to contribute both to Canadian economic history and to comparative work on inequality across nations during the early modern period. With the use of novel prices and wages from Quebec—which was then the largest settlement in Canada and under French rule—a price index, a series of real wages and a measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are constructed. They are used to shed light both on the course of economic development until the French were defeated by the British in 1760 and on standards of living in that colony relative to the mother country, France, as well as the American colonies. The work is divided into three components. The first component relates to the construction of a price index. The absence of such an index has been a thorn in the side of Canadian historians as it has limited the ability of historians to obtain real values of wages, output and living standards. This index shows that prices did not follow any trend and remained at a stable level. However, there were episodes of wide swings—mostly due to wars and the monetary experiment of playing card money. The creation of this index lays the foundation of the next component. The second component constructs a standardized real wage series in the form of welfare ratios (a consumption basket divided by nominal wage rate multiplied by length of work year) to compare Canada with France, England and Colonial America. Two measures are derived. The first relies on a “bare bones” definition of consumption with a large share of land-intensive goods. This measure indicates that Canada was poorer than England and Colonial America and not appreciably richer than France. However, this measure overestimates the relative position of Canada to the Old World because of the strong presence of land-intensive goods. A second measure is created using a “respectable” definition of consumption in which the basket includes a larger share of manufactured goods and capital-intensive goods. This second basket better reflects differences in living standards since the abundance of land in Canada (and Colonial America) made it easy to achieve bare subsistence, but the scarcity of capital and skilled labor made the consumption of luxuries and manufactured goods (clothing, lighting, imported goods) highly expensive. With this measure, the advantage of New France over France evaporates and turns slightly negative. In comparison with Britain and Colonial America, the gap widens appreciably. This element is the most important for future research. By showing a reversal because of a shift to a different type of basket, it shows that Old World and New World comparisons are very sensitive to how we measure the cost of living. Furthermore, there are no sustained improvements in living standards over the period regardless of the measure used. Gaps in living standards observed later in the nineteenth century existed as far back as the seventeenth century. In a wider American perspective that includes the Spanish colonies, Canada fares better. The third component computes a new series for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is to avoid problems associated with using real wages in the form of welfare ratios which assume a constant labor supply. This assumption is hard to defend in the case of Colonial Canada as there were many signs of increasing industriousness during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The GDP series suggest no long-run trend in living standards (from 1688 to circa 1765). The long peace era of 1713 to 1740 was marked by modest economic growth which offset a steady decline that had started in 1688, but by 1760 (as a result of constant warfare) living standards had sunk below their 1688 levels. These developments are accompanied by observations that suggest that other indicators of living standard declined. The flat-lining of incomes is accompanied by substantial increases in the amount of time worked, rising mortality and rising infant mortality. In addition, comparisons of incomes with the American colonies confirm the results obtained with wages— Canada was considerably poorer. At the end, a long conclusion is provides an exploratory discussion of why Canada would have diverged early on. In structural terms, it is argued that the French colony was plagued by the problem of a small population which prohibited the existence of scale effects. In combination with the fact that it was dispersed throughout the territory, the small population of New France limited the scope for specialization and economies of scale. However, this problem was in part created, and in part aggravated, by institutional factors like seigneurial tenure. The colonial origins of French America’s divergence from the rest of North America are thus partly institutional.

The economic impact of large influxes of population is a complex topic. This research contributes to this field by examining one of the most significant, but least researched, examples of postwar migration – the repatriation of more than six million (including three million civilians and demobilised soldiers each) to Japan after the Second World War. One pervasive image of Japanese civilian repatriates is that of the immigrant farmer of Manchuria who settled as a part of Japan’s Manchurian policies and had difficult repatriation experiences under the hostility of local people. However, many returned from other regions as well, including Korea and Sakhalin, and repatriates consisted of not only farmers but also colonial government officials, employees of public and private corporations, and small business owners, amongst others. This paper specifically focuses on civilian repatriates in selected prefectures (Ibaraki, Hiroshima, Kanagawa and Osaka) in 1956 and their occupational changes during the time of economic transition. Whilst it is evident that for many repatriates the postwar transition was not entirely smooth, the data presented in this research suggests that in contrast to prevailing notions, repatriates’ postwar resettlement was facilitated by a) employment in family farming and the tertiary sector, b) employment at government agencies or c) the transferability of repatriates’ skills in industry and retail and services. The information from the 1956 government survey into repatriates’ postwar lives shows that approximately 60 per cent of repatriates fell in these categories, while the other 40 per cent found employment in new areas or became unemployed. As a result, despite the scale of the repatriation, the settlement was broadly successful. It can be argued that this type of transition helped to bring political and economic stability, which became a foundation of Japan’s postwar growth.

In light of the financial and property crisis of 2007-2013 it is difficult to ignore the existence of cycles in the general business sector, as well as in building and property. Moreover, this issue has grown to have significant importance in the UK, as the UK property market has been characterized by boom and bust cycles with a negative impact on the overall UK economy. Hence, an understanding of property cycles can be a determinant of success for anyone working in the property industry. This thesis reviews chronological research on the subject, which stretches over a century, characterises the major publications and commentary on the subject, and discusses their major implications. Subsequently, this thesis investigates property forecasting accuracy and its improvement. As the research suggests, commercial property market modelling and forecasting has been the subject of a number of studies. As a result, it led to the development of various forecasting models ranging from simple Single Exponential Smoothing specifications to more complex Econometric with stationary data techniques. However, as the findings suggest, despite these advancements in commercial property cycle modelling and forecasting, there still remains a degree of inaccuracy between model outputs and actual property market performance. The research therefore presents the principle of Combination Forecasting as a technique helping to achieve greater predictive outcomes. The research subsequently assesses whether combination forecasts from different forecasting techniques are better than single model outputs. It examines which of them - combination or single forecast - fits the UK commercial property market better, and which of these options forecasts best. As the results of the study suggest, Combination Forecasting, and Regression (OLS) based Combination Forecasting in particular, is useful for improving forecasting accuracy of commercial property cycles in the UK.

The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the relative significance of the determinants of UK foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ghana. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)'s World Investment Report in 2013, developing countries outperformed developed countries as recipients of FDI, and it is crucial that Ghana competes to increase its share in this positive trend. It is believed that Africa needs to target some countries and even some companies rather than adopt generic strategies if their promotional activities to attract FDI are to be effective. In Ghana's case, one of the priorities to increase its share of FDI and subsequently that of Africa could be to reverse the declining trend of inward FDI from the UK, which was Ghana's leading source of FDI until recently. By applying the OLI paradigm in the context of UK FDI to Ghana, the study provides a template of how FDI from a particular country may be attracted by analysing the determining factors from the perspective of companies already experienced in the market. This study adopted explanatory mixed research method in accordance with the pragmatic research philosophy. This enabled all the 286 contactable UK companies in Ghana to be reached through the survey method. Then based on the initial analysis of 101 usable responses in SPSS, representing 35 per cent response rate, eight sequential interviews were conducted through convenience sampling. The interviews were deductively analysed by manually categorising the responses according to the questions asked, in order to build explanations of the survey findings. Consistent with the OLI paradigm, the research revealed that all the surveyed companies possess ownership advantages such as strong brands, or the potential to develop strong brands, unique products, management and marketing know-how and transferrable experience from similar markets, all of which are crucial for successful investment in Ghana. However, for Ghana to retain UK companies in the country and attract more, favourable locational factors identified in the study need to be provided and nurtured. These include reliable infrastructure, enhanced market size, political stability and continuity, opportunities for agglomeration and a functioning regulatory framework which augment different degrees of internalisation, as the majority of the companies have preference for the wholly owned subsidiary entry mode. The study also found the effect of current tax incentives, formal institutions and informal ties in attracting and retaining FDI was insignificant. This research has made a unique contribution to the understanding of the determinants of FDI in a number of ways. In practice, the sample is unique as it excluded companies operating in traditional natural resources and therefore outside the jurisdiction of the Ghana Investment Promotion Centre (GIPC) according to the GIPC Act 478 of 1994. This makes the findings specific and relevant to GIPC and investment promotion agencies in Africa, regarding crucial factors to be highlighted and to abolish practices which do not add value to the country as the preferred investment destination for UK companies. Academically, this study fills a number of gaps in the literature. First, it was unique in examining the variables to be considered in retaining as well as attracting FDI, as the majority of studies on determinants of FDI focus more on attraction and less on retention of existing companies, despite the crucial role existing companies play in agglomeration, urbanisation, brand development and other benefits of FDI. The framework developed from this study may also be adopted or modified for future studies. Methodologically, another contribution is the application of explanatory mixed research methods to empirically study the determinants of FDI in Ghana.

This thesis consists of separate papers that examine markets, prices, and consumption in the Ottoman Empire between the late seventeenth and mid-nineteenth centuries. Recent scholarship has posited that market development, new consumption patterns, and productivity gains in non-agricultural sectors that were marked by changing price-product structures are among the structural alterations that paved the way for industrialisation at the turn of the nineteenth century. This research investigates whether these phenomena were particular to the West or can be expanded to other parts of the world. As such, the study contributes to the literature seeking to understand where the “distinctive advantage” of Northwestern Europe lay. The findings reveal that on the eve of the first wave of globalisation, domestic wheat markets in the Ottoman Empire were no better integrated than they were two centuries previously. Nevertheless, Europe and the Ottoman Empire shared several characteristics of early-modern consumerism. This research demonstrated that the interiors of Ottoman houses grew richer and more varied throughout this period. From the second half of the eighteenth century onwards, Ottomans who were not richer and who were not better-positioned in the social hierarchy than their counterparts in 1700 owned a greater quantity and variety of domestic goods. In both regions, a decline in the real prices of consumer goods was a major factor, if not the only one, that triggered this change. Moreover, the analysis on prices and inventory valuations refutes the argument that the decline in prices of non-food items was a distinctive pattern in Northwestern Europe in the pre-industrial era; instead, this was mirrored in the Ottoman Empire. Overall, the findings of this research point to long-term market development (and its absence), rather than changing consumption patterns, as well as productivity gains in non-agricultural sectors as a major source of divergence prior to the Industrial Revolution between parts of Europe and the Ottoman Empire.

In East Asia, services trade integration, both in market and policy, lags far behind goods trade integration. In spite of a proliferation of ASEAN plus one type FTAs in the Region since the early 2000s, policy-led services integration has not happened in East Asia. The aim of this research project is to investigate the reasons why the Japan-ASEAN bilateral FTAs, which were concluded in the 2000s, resulted in the shallow GATS-plus FTAs. Since barriers in services trade lie in domestic regulations, we examine how domestic determinants, namely interests and institutions in domestic decision-making, shaped the negotiating positions of Japan and ASEAN. From our empirical work, we found the following: (i) The services trade policy-making structure, which involves a wide participation of domestic regulatory authorities in the decision-making process, constituted horizontal fragmentation of power. Because of horizontal fragmentation of power, the domestic regulatory authorities with strong regulatory autonomy and regulatory concerns were able to exercise a veto power against changes in the status-quo and pushed backward the lead ministry’s negotiating positions. (ii) In terms of interests, no strong proliberalisation interests existed either on the policy demand or supply sides. On the policy demand side, while there existed very limited exporting interests, the import-competing services suppliers were afraid of the erosion of rents and adjustment costs caused by preferential market liberalisation. On the policy supply side, there was few incentives to lock in domestic services reforms by using the Japan-ASEAN bilateral FTAs. In addition, (a) pressure for speedy conclusion of an FTA to win the political competition of creating FTAs in the Region and (b) the strong economic and political motivation of FTAs to enhance regional supply chains in the manufacturing sector undermined the countries’ negotiating positions on services trade. From the findings above, we conclude that services trade integration in East Asia lags far behind goods trade because of the double layered political economy impediments. The first layer of impediment, which is the horizontally fragmented domestic decision-making structure, reflects the heterogeneity of services. The second layer of impediment, which is interests, mostly reflects the distinctive characteristics of East Asia.

The thesis comprises three essays, all of which are empirical studies of different issues on exchange rates. Implementing advanced econometrics methodologies with monthly time series data, these studies focus on macroeconomic determinants to measure the relationships within the variables. The first essay (Chapter Two) re-examines the robustness of the export-led growth hypothesis across the exchange rate regimes in Malaysia. According to the exchange rate regime history, Malaysia experienced three different exchange rate mechanisms from 1990 to 2010. Generally, the results vary across the time and regimes. Specifically, the study suggests bi-directional and/or unidirectional causality between exports and economic growth across the regimes, both in the short-run and long-run. The second essay (Chapter Three) tries to bridge the gap between the exchange rate issues by investigating the impact exchange rate exposure on sector level in Malaysia from October, 1992 to December, 2010. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the exchange rate exposure in Malaysia sectorial returns by using an augmented model. Overall, in all instances, the results suggest that the exchange rate exposures in Malaysia can be categorized as the long memory in the volatility process. After investigating currency exposure in two types of models, the results further suggest that the sectors are largely affected by the currency fluctuations. The third essay (Chapter Four) explores the channels and magnitude of exchange rate volatility-export nexus empirically on the export flow of five ASEAN countries namely, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia to the United States from January, 1990 to December, 2010. The major results show that increases in the volatility of the real bilateral exchange rate, exert significant effects upon export demand in the short run in each of the ASEAN countries. This study further suggests significant negative effects from the bilateral exchange rate volatility of exports flow in Singapore, Malaysia and Philippines. However, these findings do not apply to Indonesia and Thailand.