Given the growing effect that globalisation and integration has had upon economies and regions, the process of monetary union has become an increasingly topical issue in economic policy debates. This has been driven in part by the experience and successes of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which is widely perceived as beneficial to member countries. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an example of a group of countries that has realised that there are benefits that may arise from economic integration. This paper makes use of an interest-rate pass through model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in ten SADC countries has become more similar between January 1990 and December 2007 using monthly interest rate data. This is done to determine the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within SADC, and consequently establish whether the formation of a regional monetary union is feasible. The results of the empirical pass-through model were robust and show that there are certain countries that have a more efficient and similar monetary transmission process than others. In particular, the countries that form the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) tend to show evidence of convergence in monetary policy transmission, especially since 2000. In addition, from analysis of the long-run pass-through, the results reveal that there is evidence that Malawi and Zambia have shown signs of convergence toward the countries that form the CMA and SACU, in terms of monetary policy transmission. The study concludes that a SADC wide monetary union is currently not feasible based on the evidence provided from the results of the pass-through analysis. Despite this, it can be tentatively suggested that the CMA may be expanded to include Botswana, Malawi and Zambia.

In conformity with the goal of the African Union to build a monetary union for the entire African continent, one of the goals of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is the formation of a monetary union with a single central bank. Towards this end certain macroeconomic convergence criteria, which are closely aligned with those used by the European Union (EU), have been set. While empirical research on whether or not SADC would benefit from the formation of a currency union has focused on the optimum currency area criteria, no reference to these criteria is made in the SADC programme. Instead, the SADC approach has been governed by a set of macroeconomic convergence criteria synonymous with those pursued by the European Monetary Union (EMU) prior to its formation. Doubts regarding the future of the EU have recently been raised as a result of debt crises in certain member states, implicitly raising questions about the adequacy of the convergence criteria that were adopted. Accordingly, this study considers the feasibility of establishing a currency union in the SADC region. The proposed convergence criteria are assessed against the theory of optimum currency areas as well as in terms of their adequacy in the light of recent EU experience. In addition, the paper provides a preliminary assessment of the fiscal sustainability of the SADC region by conducting Engle-Granger cointegration tests on the public debt and revenue series for the SADC countries under analysis. It was observed that SADC has made considerable progress towards meeting its macroeconomic convergence criteria in recent years. However, in light of the regions' heavy dependence on commodity exports coupled with recent price fluctuations in this regard, the sustainability of this progress is questioned. Furthermore, a review of the EMU experience to date highlights numerous flaws in its approach and the potential challenges the SADC region should consider in moving forward with its agenda. In essence, the study suggests that almost all the SADC member states are fiscally unprepared for monetary union formation and the recent EMU debt crisis has highlighted the importance of acquiring a state of fiscal sustainability prior to union formation. In addition, it is imperative that the SADC members continue to address issues of product diversification, intraregional trade and political unification, all of which should be governed by a centralised fiscal authoriry.

Financial systems (i.e. banking systems and stock markets) can influence economic growth by performing the five key financial functions, namely: mobilising savings, allocating capital, easing of exchange, monitoring and exerting corporate governance, as well as ameliorating risk. The level of development of the financial system is a key determinant of how effectively and efficiently these functions are performed. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between financial system development and economic growth for a panel of seven African countries (namely: Egypt, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia) covering the period 1988 to 2008. While numerous empirical studies have researched this topic, none of the previous African empirical literature have investigated thjs by using three groups of financial development measures (i.e. overall financial development, banking system development and stock market development measures) as well as employing panel cointegration analyses. The investigation of the long-run finance-growth relationship is conducted using two methods; the Pedroni panel cointegration approach and the Kao panel cointegration technique. The Pedroni panel cointegracion approach is more often applied in empirical research as it has less restrictive deterministic trend assumptions, while the Kao panel cointegration technique is employed in this study for comparison purposes. Furthermore, the short-run linkages bet\veen financial development and economic growth are analysed using the Holtz-Eakin d of (1989) panel Granger causality test. The results of the Pedroni cointegration tests show that there are long-run relationships between overall financial development (measured by LOFD and OFD2) and economic growth, banking system development (measured by LPSC) and economic growth, as well as stock marker development (measured by LMCP and LVLT) and economic growth. In contrast, the Kao test fails to find any cointegration between finance and growth. However, on the balance, findings largely support a conclusion of cointegration between financial development and economic growth since the Pedroni approach is more appropriate for examining cointegration in heterogeneous panels. Estimates of these long-run cointegrating relationships show that all five financial development measures have the expected positive linkages with growth. However, only four of the five financial development measures were found to have significant long-run linkages with growth, as the relationship between LOFD and growth was not found to be significant in the long-run. The panel Granger causality results show that economic growth Granger causes banking system development in the short-run (i.e. there is demand-following finance), irrespective of the measure of banking development used. While there is bi-directional, reciprocal causality between economic growth and both of the measures of overall financial development and one measure of srock market development (i.e. LVLT). Thus, pulicy makers should focus on formulating policy which promotes faster paced economic growth so as to stimulate financial development, while at the same time encourage policy that promotes the balanced expansion of the banking systems and srock markets in ordet to augment economic growth.

This study aims to determine the main drivers of financial market development, with a specific interest in the relationship between the stock and bank credit markets, as proxies of financial market development, and the role of institutional quality, in ten African countries for the period of 2009 to 2017. A number of econometric techniques such as the General Methods of Moments (GMM) model for dynamic panel data, autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration, vector error correction model (VECM), and granger causality tests were applied in the study. We further developed a composite index for both financial market development and institutional quality using Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The results demonstrate that institutional quality, as well as infrastructure development, economic growth, and inflation are the main determinants of financial market development in our sample of ten African countries. Findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm the existence of a long-run association between institutional quality and financial market development. Although financial market development has no effect on economic growth, institutional quality was found to have a positive and highly significant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, employing the Granger causality test, we found uni-directional granger causality between financial market development and institutional quality, implying that financial market development is a significant causal factor for institutional quality. In consideration of these findings, policy formulation by governments should be designed towards enhancing financial and institutional quality development, and this can be possibly achieved by effective enforcement of law to encourage compliance, while simultaneously eliminating corruption and other institutional hindrances to development / Lolu cwaningo luhlose ukuveza izinhlaka ezingabaphembeleli abasemqoka ekuthuthukisweni kwezimakethe zezimali, kugxilwe kakhulu kubudlelwano obuphakathi kwesitoko kanye nezimakethe zamabhangi ahlinzekana ngezikweletu, njengabancedisi abathuthukisa izimakethe zezimali, kanye nendima emayelana nezinga leziko, emazweni ase-Afrika ayishumi esikhathini esiphakathi kuka 2009 ukufikela ku 2017. Inani lezindlela zokulinganisa izinga lomnotho ezinjenge-General Methods of Moments (GMM) model yedatha yephaneli eguquguqukayo, i-autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration, i-vector error correction model (VECM), Kanye negranger causality tests zisetshenzisiwe kucwaningo. Siqhubekele phambili nokwakha inkomba ehlangene yazo zombili izinhlaka; ukuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali Kanye nezinga leziko ngokusebenzisa uhlelo lwe-Principal Components Analysis (PCA). Imiphumela ikhombisile ukuthi izinga leziko, Kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda, ukuhluma komnotho, Kanye nezinga lamandla email yizinkomba ezisemqoka zokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali kusampuli yethu elula yamazwe ase-Afrika ayishumi. Ulwazi olutholakele ku-ARDL bound testing approach luqinisekisa ubukhona kobudlelwano besikhathi eside obuphakathi kwezinga leziko kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali. Yize ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe yezimali kungenawo umthelela kwezokuhluma komnotho, izinga leziko lona liye latholakala ukuthi linomthelela omuhle nosemqoka kakhulu ekukhuleni komnotho. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma sisebenzisa uhlelo lweGranger causality test, sifumene i-uni-directional granger causality phakathi kwemakethe yezimali Kanye nezinga leziko, lokhu kuchaza ukuthi ukuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali kuyimbangela esemqoka yezinga leziko. Uma kubhekwa lolu lwazi olutholakele, imigomo eyakhwa uhulumeni kufanele yakhiwe ngenhloso yokuqinisa ukuthuthukiswa kwezinga lezimali Kanye nezinga leziko, kanti lokhu kungafinyelelwa ngokuqinisa kahle umthetho ukukhuthaza ukulandelwa komthetho, kanti ngakolunye uhlangothi kuncishiswe izinga lenkohlakalo Kanye nezinye izihibhe eziphazamiso ukuthuthukiswa kweziko. / Maikaelelo a thutopatlisiso ke go swetsa ka ditsamaisi tse dikgolo tsa tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete, ka kgatlhego e rileng mo kamanong magareng ga mebaraka ya setoko le ya sekoloto sa dibanka, jaaka kemedi ya tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete, le seabe sa boleng jwa ditheo, mo dinageng di le lesome tsa Aforika mo pakeng ya 2009 go ya go 2017. Go dirisitswe dithekeniki di le mmalwa tsa ikonometiriki di tshwana le sekao sa General Methods of Moments (GMM) sa data ya phanele e anameng, molebo wa tekeletso e kopanyang ya autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL), sekao sa vector error correction (VECM) le diteko tsa sesusumetsi tsa Granger. Gape re tlhamile tshupane ya dikarolo ya tlhabololo ya mmaraka wa ditšhelete le boleng jwa ditheo re dirisa Tokololo ya Dikarolo tse Dikgolo (Principal Components Analysis (PCA)). Dipholo di bontsha gore boleng jwa ditheo, gammogo le tlhabololo ya mafaratlhatlha, kgolo ya ikonomi le infoleišene ke diswetsi tsa tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete mo sampoleng ya rona ya dinaga di le lesome tsa Aforika. Diphitlhelelo go tswa mo molebong wa teko e kopanyang ya ARDL di tlhomamisa go nna teng ga kamano ya paka e telele magareng ga boleng jwa ditheo le tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete. Le fa tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete e sa ame kgolo ya ikonomi ka gope, boleng jwa ditheo bo fitlhetswe bo na le ditlamorago tse di siameng e bile di le botlhokwa mo kgolong ya ikonomi. Mo godimo ga moo, ka go dirisa teko ya Granger ya sesusumetsi, re fitlhetse go na le sesusumetsi sa ntlha e le nngwe sa Granger magareng ga lhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete le boleng jwa ditheo, mo go rayang gore tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete ke ntlha e e botlhokwa ya sesusumetsi sa boleng jwa ditheo. Fa go lebelelwa diphitlhelelo tseno, go dirwa ga dipholisi ke dipuso go tshwanetse ga dirwa gore go tokafatse tlhabololo ya boleng jwa ditšhelete le ditheo, mme seno se ka fitlhelelwa ka tiragatso e e bokgoni ya molao go rotloetsa kobamelo mme go ntse go fedisiwa bobodu le dikgoreletsi tse dingwe tsa tlhabololo mo ditheong. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management (Finance))