This dissertation analyzes voting behavior and presence of political cycles in India. While such exercises have been carried out extensively in the context of developed countries and established democracies, there have been few studies on similar behavior in developing countries and new economies. The focus on India in this study may provide valuable insight into this literature in an area that has been largely ignored. Our findings suggest that political manipulation of taxes, grants and expenditures are prevalent at both the national and sub-national levels; though they are tempered by the nature of partisanship. However, while these manipulations may be economically inefficient, they are politically very strategic as incumbents seem to focus on manipulating those items for which they can claim sole responsibility. Indian voters seem to be fiscal conservatives, as they penalize increases in most items of expenditures and generally reward reductions in taxes. Evidence of yardstick effects in taxes is also presented. We find that a higher degree of ‘clarity of responsibility’ also fosters stronger economic voting effects. Voters seem to be cognizant of the division of functional responsibility between the two levels of government (the center and the state) and they evaluate their performance independently. Also, we find results consistent with the notion that the central government is responsible for the overall health of the economy as voters seem to penalize the central incumbent for increases in inflation and reward them for steady growth while being indifferent to such outcome variables while voting for the state level incumbent. The policy implications of such findings are also briefly discussed. It is a matter of grave concern if incumbents tailored policies to provide them with the biggest political payoff. This may lead to differences in economic development across states and the incidence of expenditure and tax changes may fall unfairly on the most vulnerable people of the society. There are also important insights on assignment of responsibility and the ‘how’ of political interference which would aid us in building more comprehensive political economy models that are closer to reflecting reality than purely economic models commonly used today.

Economic voting--the effect of national economic circumstances on vote preferences--is often seen as the closest thing to a law that exists in the social sciences. Why, then, do incumbents frequently win amidst economic downturns and challengers in economic boom times? I argue that the conventional wisdom fails because it leaves no room for political leadership. Rejecting the notion that candidates have little influence over when and to what extent economic voting occurs, I develop a campaign-centered theory that highlights candidates' power to alter the strength of the economic vote strategically. Specifically, I draw on cognitive-psychological research on priming to argue that candidates' decisions to emphasize or deemphasize economic issues in campaign messages--decisions which I argue are not endogenous to economic context--systematically condition voters' willingness to hold governments accountable for past economic performance. I test my argument against the conventional economic voting model by evaluating the impact of televised campaign ads in national elections in five countries. Combining quantitative analysis of public opinion data with original content analysis of both televised ads and newspaper stories, I show that the effect of economic campaign messages on the economic vote is profound. In some cases, the effect is electorally decisive. In elections in which candidates focus on non-economic issues, however, evaluations of the nation's economic performance have little influence on vote preferences. Only when candidates focus squarely on economic issues do voters come to evaluate the candidates based on economic considerations. Notably, I show that this activating effect is driven by exposure to economic campaign ads in particular, not the campaign in general as conventional theory predicts. Electoral campaigns, therefore, can overcome structural conditions thought to hamstring electoral candidates. More generally, I show that, by reevaluating the psychology of economic voting in light of extensive research on priming, we can improve our understanding of election outcomes in both developed and developing democracies that conventional models treat as anomalous. / text

This study examines the relationship between the state of the U.S. economy and the outcome of general elections for incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives. The analysis uses a unique data set compiled from a sample of U.S. Congressional Elections and state and economic indicators between the years 1999 and 2014. We find that economic indicators are consistently related to election outcomes, but have a larger and more significant effect when the time period examined is closer to a major economic event, such as the Great Recession. We also find that female incumbent candidates are more negatively affected by increases in the unemployment rate than their male counterparts. The results imply the existence of a gender bias against women in elections that consider economic indicators highly. These findings highlight what is of greatest importance to the voting electorate during voting season in the 21st century.

<p>The purpose of the thesis is to identify relationships between economic factors and the probability to vote on populist parties. The results are in turn based on the populist parties’ outcome in the 2006 Swedish election to parliament. Parties below the 4 percent margin, prior to the election, which is the percentage point required to enter the parliament, are defined as populist parties. Furthermore, based on theoretical and previous empirical research, seven economic variables are chosen; disposable income, income distribution, municipal tax rate, unemployment and higher education. In addition to these five, are the number of crime incidents reported, and the share of people born outside of the European Union also included. Moreover, the study is conducted at a regional, or more explicitly, at a municipal level, implying that 290 observations are used for each variable, in a total of five regressions. These are performed to test the diversity of populist parties.</p><p>The findings confirm that there are obvious relationships between the chosen variables and the probability of voting on populist parties, as the majority of the regressions explain 25 to 35 percent of the variation in the voting decision. These figures seem consistent, since ideological and factual issues are more important to populist party sympathizers.</p><p>Nevertheless, the results show that when it comes to the economic variables - unemployment, education, disposable income and consequently the municipal tax rate are the ones which concerns people the most when voting on populist parties. Additionally, as the share of people born outside of the European Union increases, the probability of voting in favor of Sverigedemokraterna also increases.</p><p>Finally, the growth of populist parties or of Sverigedemokraterna in particular, forces the conventional parties to adopt similar political standpoints in order to gain votes. Implying that if the present economic and political situation persists, populist parties’, especially Sverigedemokraterna’s policies will thrive in Swedish politics.</p> / <p>Avsikten med denna studie är att identifiera samband mellan ekonomiska faktorer och sannolikheten att rösta på populistpartier. Genomförandet är i sin tur baserat på 2006 års riksdagsvalresultat. Partier som innan valet befann sig under 4 procentsmarginalen definieras som populistiska partier. Grundat i tidigare forskning och teori, har sju ekonomiska variabler valts; disponibel inkomst, inkomstfördelning, kommunskatt, arbetslöshet och högre utbildning. Förutom dessa fem, är även antalet anmälda brott och andelen människor födda utanför den Europiska Unionen inkluderade. Vidare utförs studien på regional, närmare bestämt kommunalnivå, där 290 observationer används för varje variabel, i totalt fem regressioner. Detta med syfte att testa populistpartiers mångfald.</p><p>De empiriska resultaten bekräftar att det finns uppenbara samband mellan de valda variablerna och sannolikheten att rösta på populistpartier, då en majoritet av regressionerna förklarar 25 till 35 procent av variationen i röstningsavgörandet. Dessa siffror verkar stämma överens med verkligheten, eftersom ideologi och sakfrågor är viktigare för populistpartianhängare.</p><p>Gällande de ekonomiska variablerna är det arbetslösheten, utbildningsnivån, disponibla inkomsten och kommunalskatten som påverkar människor mest när de röstar på populistpartier. Det visar sig även att när andelen människor födda utanför den Europiska Unionen ökar, ökar även sannolikheten att man röstar på Sverigedemokraterna.</p><p>Till sist, tillväxten av populistpartier, speciellt av Sverigedemokraterna, har på senare tid tilltagit, vilket leder till att de konventionella partierna måste anamma likartade politiska ståndpunkter för att kunna få fler röster. Innebärande att om den rådande ekonomiska och politiska situationen består, kommer populistpartiers och i synnerhet Sverigedemokraternas riktlinjer att i framtiden få ett mycket större utrymme i den svenska politiken.</p>

In this paper we analyze the impact of global imports on regional labor markets, and how such impact translates to changes in voting patterns in the U.S. Presidential elections from 2000 to 2016. We find that imports from different U.S. trading partners influence voting patterns in different ways. In particular, we observe an anti-incumbent effect caused by import competition from OECD countries. Such an effect cannot be observed for imports from low-income countries. There is also evidence that suggests high exposure to import competition tends to drive voters toward the Democratic candidate, who typically proposes better social welfare programs and more protectionist policies. For imports from low-income countries, evidence for such effects is less robust, but still significant. Despite the voters’ earlier alignment toward the Democrats, we observe a significant voter realignment toward the Republican candidate in the 2016 election due to sudden changes in the Republicans’ stance on global trade. Taken together, these results paint a picture of how the voters’ sentiment towards global trade evolves throughout time and varies with regards to different U.S. trading partners.

What consequences arise as a result of repeated control of the legislature by the same party or coalition? Are incumbent parties less likely to lose an election the longer they remain in power? Furthermore, as parties remain in power longer and longer, do the factors which electoral scholars have proposed influence elections have less of an impact on election outcomes? The purpose of this project is to examine the electoral impact of repeated control of the legislature by the same party or ruling coalition. In this project, I argue that the length of time an incumbent party or coalition has maintained control of the legislature is a critical consideration for scholars interested in studying elections. In doing so, I hope to develop a better understanding of elections, the factors which influence election, and the mechanisms by which these factors affect election outcomes. Central to this project is the phenomenon I call party duration. I define party duration as the number of years the incumbent party has maintained control of the legislature in unicameral legislatures or the lower house in bicameral legislatures. This is the party that has secured enough seats to control the legislature independently in cases where a single party controls the legislature, or the party that serves as the largest party in the ruling coalition that controls the legislature in cases where a single party does not control the legislature by itself. Using cross-sectional time-series analysis to study a novel dataset, I show that not only does increasing party duration decreases the likelihood that an incumbent party will lose an election, controlling for various other factors, but I find evidence that party duration also affects the effect of other variables which influence elections. Specifically, I focus on the impact that the length of party duration has on the effect of economic conditions on the incumbent party's performance in elections. These findings highlight the importance of party duration, a variable which has previously not received attention from electoral scholars

The purpose of the thesis is to identify relationships between economic factors and the probability to vote on populist parties. The results are in turn based on the populist parties’ outcome in the 2006 Swedish election to parliament. Parties below the 4 percent margin, prior to the election, which is the percentage point required to enter the parliament, are defined as populist parties. Furthermore, based on theoretical and previous empirical research, seven economic variables are chosen; disposable income, income distribution, municipal tax rate, unemployment and higher education. In addition to these five, are the number of crime incidents reported, and the share of people born outside of the European Union also included. Moreover, the study is conducted at a regional, or more explicitly, at a municipal level, implying that 290 observations are used for each variable, in a total of five regressions. These are performed to test the diversity of populist parties. The findings confirm that there are obvious relationships between the chosen variables and the probability of voting on populist parties, as the majority of the regressions explain 25 to 35 percent of the variation in the voting decision. These figures seem consistent, since ideological and factual issues are more important to populist party sympathizers. Nevertheless, the results show that when it comes to the economic variables - unemployment, education, disposable income and consequently the municipal tax rate are the ones which concerns people the most when voting on populist parties. Additionally, as the share of people born outside of the European Union increases, the probability of voting in favor of Sverigedemokraterna also increases. Finally, the growth of populist parties or of Sverigedemokraterna in particular, forces the conventional parties to adopt similar political standpoints in order to gain votes. Implying that if the present economic and political situation persists, populist parties’, especially Sverigedemokraterna’s policies will thrive in Swedish politics. / Avsikten med denna studie är att identifiera samband mellan ekonomiska faktorer och sannolikheten att rösta på populistpartier. Genomförandet är i sin tur baserat på 2006 års riksdagsvalresultat. Partier som innan valet befann sig under 4 procentsmarginalen definieras som populistiska partier. Grundat i tidigare forskning och teori, har sju ekonomiska variabler valts; disponibel inkomst, inkomstfördelning, kommunskatt, arbetslöshet och högre utbildning. Förutom dessa fem, är även antalet anmälda brott och andelen människor födda utanför den Europiska Unionen inkluderade. Vidare utförs studien på regional, närmare bestämt kommunalnivå, där 290 observationer används för varje variabel, i totalt fem regressioner. Detta med syfte att testa populistpartiers mångfald. De empiriska resultaten bekräftar att det finns uppenbara samband mellan de valda variablerna och sannolikheten att rösta på populistpartier, då en majoritet av regressionerna förklarar 25 till 35 procent av variationen i röstningsavgörandet. Dessa siffror verkar stämma överens med verkligheten, eftersom ideologi och sakfrågor är viktigare för populistpartianhängare. Gällande de ekonomiska variablerna är det arbetslösheten, utbildningsnivån, disponibla inkomsten och kommunalskatten som påverkar människor mest när de röstar på populistpartier. Det visar sig även att när andelen människor födda utanför den Europiska Unionen ökar, ökar även sannolikheten att man röstar på Sverigedemokraterna. Till sist, tillväxten av populistpartier, speciellt av Sverigedemokraterna, har på senare tid tilltagit, vilket leder till att de konventionella partierna måste anamma likartade politiska ståndpunkter för att kunna få fler röster. Innebärande att om den rådande ekonomiska och politiska situationen består, kommer populistpartiers och i synnerhet Sverigedemokraternas riktlinjer att i framtiden få ett mycket större utrymme i den svenska politiken.

The 2011 Saskatchewan Election saw a landslide victory for The Saskatchewan Party. They also achieved this victory during a time in which the province was experiencing economic revitalization. Past studies have suggested that incumbents are rewarded for good economic times. As such, the 2011 Saskatchewan election provides for a good case study that aims to understand if perceptions of the economy influenced Saskatchewan residents vote choice at that time. Using data collected from the 2011 Saskatchewan Election Study, this thesis has found that retrospective sociotropic and egocentric perceptions of the economy did have a small direct role in influencing vote choice during the election. However, this thesis also found that once leadership opinions of Brad Wall were added to the statistical analysis these perceptions became insignificant. Interestingly, the same economic perceptions were found to make up a part of Wall’s leadership evaluation. With leadership evaluations being the largest determinant of vote choice, this thesis found that economic perceptions did play a role in the 2011 Saskatchewan Election, albeit in a roundabout way.

The relationship between economic performance and support for the incumbent government varies across voters and electoral contexts. While some of this variation can be explained by factors that make it easier or harder to hold politicians accountable, an additional explanation is that the electoral importance of economic issues varies systematically across groups and contexts. Because issues that are personally important tend to be more easily accessible when voting, we prose that exposure to economic shocks generates higher incentives to place more weight on economic conditions when voting. We test this hypothesis using archived and original survey data from Argentina, Mexico, and Peru. The analysis demonstrates that economic vulnerability enhances the economy's salience. Specifically, poverty generates incentives to cast an egotropic vote while wealth, insecure employment, informal employment, and exclusion from governments welfare programs enhances sociotropic voting because these groups have greater stakes in the national economy. By implication, elections in developing countries with large numbers of vulnerable voters should be more strongly contested over economics despite the weak institutional environment that potentially undermines the ability of voters to hold politicians accountable. Aggregate elections returns and the CSES survey support this proposition and demonstrate that economic voting is substantially more common in Latin American than in Western Europe or North America. Thus variations in economic voting provide opportunities to not only learn about the conditions under which elections can serve as mechanisms of accountability but also a laboratory to model the process of preference formation and the demands voters place on their representatives. / Dissertation

A presente tese é um trabalho de Ciência Política, com um grande esforço de estabelecer diálogos com outras disciplinas, como a Geografia, a Economia e o Marketing, no que diz respeito aos estudos eleitorais. Partindo do pressuposto de que distintos atores políticos possuem diferentes territórios eleitorais, formulamos a hipótese de que existe uma correlação entre a geograficidade e os resultados eleitorais. O termo geograficidade aqui não alude somente àquilo que é objeto da Geografia ou sobre a atividade específica do geógrafo, mas à diferenciação espacial, tendo em vista a relação existencial estabelecida entre o homem e seu território (espaço geográfico delimitado por relações de poder). O próprio título do trabalho, Eleições e Territórios, já evidencia sua abordagem transdisciplinar com a inclusão integrada de dois objetos distintos de estudos, que são considerados por diversas disciplinas. Observados esses elos entre a Ciência Política e tais disciplinas no que diz respeito à política, buscamos desenvolver um estudo mais aprofundado da relação entre eleições e territórios, considerando abordagens e instrumentos variados dessas disciplinas, o que, embora pautado em teorias políticas, destaca outros aspectos e espectros dos casos estudados. / This thesis is a study of Political Science, with a major effort to establish dialogues with other subjects as Geography, Economy, and Marketing, with regard to electoral studies. Assuming that different political actors have different electoral regions, we hypothesized that there is a correlation between geographicity and electoral results. The term \"geographicity\" here do not refers only to what is the object of Geography, or the specific activity of the geographer, but it is the spatial differentiation considering the relationship established between man and his territory (geographical space delimited by power relations). The title of the study, \"Elections and Territories\", already shows its transdisciplinary approach integrated through the union of two distinct objects of study, which are considered by many subjects. Observed these links between Political Science and such subjects concerning politics, we develop a deeper study of the relationship between elections and territories, considering a variety of approaches and tools of these subjects, which, although ruled by political theories, highlight other aspects of the cases studied.