M.Ing. / This research study is about evaluating the practicability of using systems engineering approach to rural electrification project risk management. The research was motivated by rural electrification projects in South Africa that have suffered planning, design or operational problems due to uncertainties at project site level. The dissertation begins by describing the rural electrification background in the first chapter. The process of electrifying rural areas, challenges, and achievements so far in South Africa are presented. The government target for universal access to electricity is also highlighted. The next two chapters address the theory of systems engineering, and project risk management as one of the elements of project management. The theory of systems engineering approach to risk management is then applied to a typical electrification project structure. The electrification project is viewed as a system, with risk management as a sub-system of project management. A case study is presented for a rural electrification project in KwaZulu-Natal that has experienced design and operational problems. A risk system is identified from work breakdown structure, and risk hierarchy framework is produced based on project life cycle cost model. Risks are ranked in terms of their impact and probability. The aim of the study is to understand the impact of each risk on general project risk, and risk mitigation measures that should be taken to address those risks. The research finishes by drawing a conclusion that electrification projects are complex, risks are manageable, and systems thinking can be successfully used to manage electrification project risks. Risk management must focus on the project as a whole, including operation and maintenance, rather than focusing at individual project stages.

Hydroelectric power has traditionally been the object of much publicity in the Soviet Union, yet few facts are available regarding the significance of hydro to the electricity industry on a national, and especially on a regional, basis. This thesis seeks to clarify the situation in determining the significance of Soviet hydro potential as well as existing hydro capacity on both national and regional levels. In so doing a system of regions based on power networks has been used and for these regions total installed generating capacities have been calculated so as to provide a basis for quantitative ranking. This study is not concerned simply with the generation of electricity, but with estimating absolute size and type of regional installed capacity and generation, together with the heretofore neglected aspect of consumption. A different approach to evaluating the importance of consumers of electricity is advocated, one in which load factor plays an important role and required KW capacity to meet a particular demand constitutes the prime criterion. The result has been to emphasize the spatial variations in complementary aspects of the Soviet electricity industry. It was found that the concepts most frequently used in assessing Soviet hydro potential have certain limitations, the most important being a neglect of relative distribution. By considering the distribution of remaining prospective dam sites in terms of "economically accessibility," it has been possible to reduce the figure for Soviet hydro potential by almost one-half. While it has been shown that there has been a movement eastward and therefore greater correlation between hydro capacity and hydro potential at present, including hydro capacity currently being installed, almost a third of the "economically accessible" hydro potential is now utilized. For many years there has been concern over meeting system peak load demand economically and in this context hydro capacity in many regions has assumed the function of meeting peak load demand, especially during the winter months. The Central Siberian region has not as yet realized the full benefit of the large scale projects, both hydro and thermal, thus far undertaken and at present is not characterized by low cost electricity. A decreasing average cost can be expected during the next few years. While traditionally viewed as a source region of electricity it has been determined that a possible export of 15-20 percent of total regional generation would have only a limited impact if exported to European Russia. It can be expected that this region will prove to be attractive in the location of electricity intensive industry. It is the concensus here also that large scale hydro construction will continue, but at a slower pace. The demand for electricity in Central Siberia is not yet characterized by any particular industry or sector. In the future aluminum production will constitute an important share of total demand for electricity in this region. The one feature common to the four regions of European Russia is a dependence to a greater or lesser degree on external sources of energy for the generation of electricity. While emphasis has been placed on the utilization of local energy resources, insofar as hydro is concerned, little can be expected as over 80 percent of potential has now been utilized. To date the Urals and Center-Volga have experienced the most serious power shortages, due primarily to the high degree of industrialization and heavy concentration of urban population respectively. The South in contrast does not appear to be in the same situation, the result both of its broader energy resource base and a more diversified demand. The Northwest region while scheduled to be interconnected with the Unified European Power Network, lacks any distinguishing feature in its electricity industry and will remain of peripheral importance. Within what have been referred to as the Peripheral Regions there exists considerable "economically accessible" hydro potential. However, much of this is likely to remain undeveloped for many years to come, especially in the Far East. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, while hydro has traditionally provided the bulk of electricity, in recent years gas-fired thermal stations have made striking inroads. In the Caucasus limited gas reserves will of necessity force the region to look to external sources if this trend is to continue. This is not a problem in Central Asia where there exists extensive gas reserves. Of the remaining regions, Northeast Kazakhstan and Murmansk, only the former is scheduled to assume significance on the national level. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate

Magister Artium - MA / The aim ofthis study is to analyse the interrelationships among domestic energy needs, the system of prepayment electrification and development as manifested in two lowincome communities of the Cape Metropole, namely Wallacedene and Delft. The study highlights the various dimensions of the following problem: Technological applications such as prepayment systems of electrification (whereby payment precedes the supply of electricity to users) can be rendered ineffective if it is not compatible with all the conditions that shape the livelihoods of its target groups

Hybrid vehicles are an important technology for reducing oil use and transportation-related emissions. It is well-known that hybrid and electric vehicles are often designed and tested using standard cycles such as the Highway Fuel Economy Test (HWY), Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule (UDDS), and the US06 Supplementary Federal Test Procedure (US06). However, this begs the questions: How does real world driving compare to these cycles? Can a vehicle be designed using real world driving data which saves fuel in the real world compared to a vehicle designed using standard cycles? This thesis investigates this issue using a set of 5000km of real world driving data by light-duty pickup trucks, with the goal to optimize the fuel savings of a mild hybrid truck. The challenge with using a model-based design approach on thousands of kilometers of real driving data is the long model run-time required to iterate through plant and control parameters. Thus, this work develops a novel script which reduces optimization time by 78%. The key is to run the full model of the non-hybrid truck one time on the full driving data set, and then use the resulting vehicle speed, engine efficiency, engine torque, and engine speed, as inputs to the faster script. The script is then used to quickly iterate through the driving data set many times to find optimal control and plant parameters. In this work, exhaustive search is used; however, evolutionary optimization algorithms could also be used and would benefit from the fast script iteration on real world driving cycles. Overall, the use of the real world driving set for design of the mild hybrid truck resulted in a 7.10% decrease in fuel consumption compared to the non-hybrid truck, while the use of standard driving cycles for design resulted in a 5.45% fuel consumption decrease compared to the non-hybrid truck. / Thesis / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

East Timor is rebuilding its stock of infrastructure after decades of underdevelopment and a wave of violent destruction in 1999. As part of this process the Government of East Timor aims to improve access to electricity from less than five percent of the population today to eighty percent by 2020. An important strategy to meeting this aim will be the use of solar home systems (SHS) in remote rural locations. To develop its policy for the deployment of SHS, the Government of East Timor must decide what size of SHS is optimal. This research investigates whether there is a relationship between SHS size and development. / The research adapts an evaluation approach developed by World Bank/UNDP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. This approach uses a combination of participatory and quantitative tools tailored to the East Timorese context through consultations with rural households about electrification and their use of SHS. Three SHS projects in East Timor were selected for evaluation, each of which had adopted a different sized SHS for their program. The smallest systems installed were 10 Wp single-lamp systems. The largest system was rated at 80 Wp and was supplied with four or six lamps. The third type of system was 40 Wp and provided three lamps / To assess the development impact of these different sizes of SHS, a set of Participatory Evaluation exercises were conducted with seventy-seven small groups of SHS users in twenty four rural communities. These exercises were supplemented with a Socio-economic Household Survey of 195 SHS users. The combined results of these evaluation processes enabled the three sizes of SHS to be compared for two types of benefits—assistance with carrying out important household tasks (i.e. ‘lighting-derived’ benefits) and attributes of SHS which were advantageous in comparison to use of non-electric lighting sources (i.e. ‘intrinsic’ benefits). Analysis of the research results showed that the small 10 Wp SHS provided much of the development impact of the larger systems. For lighting-derived benefits, there was little difference between the development impact of small and large systems. The larger systems provided greater benefit for domestic tasks undertaken in kitchen buildings, since the small and medium sized SHS did not provide lighting in these areas. For intrinsic benefits related to health and convenience, the small systems provided much the same benefits as larger systems. For financial benefits—considered by East Timorese SHS users to be the most important of the intrinsic benefits—smaller systems were found to offer slightly positive benefits due to their lower operating costs. Larger systems, however, were found to have a negative overall financial impact. / The research suggests three significant implications for the design of SHS programs in East Timor and comparable situations elsewhere: programs should focus on providing smaller systems rather than larger ones; systems should be designed to provide a light in the kitchen wherever possible to maximise the overall development impact; and SHS operating costs should be carefully matched to the incomes of rural householders to ensure that operation of the systems can be sustained by user households.

East Timor is rebuilding its stock of infrastructure after decades of underdevelopment and a wave of violent destruction in 1999. As part of this process the Government of East Timor aims to improve access to electricity from less than five percent of the population today to eighty percent by 2020. An important strategy to meeting this aim will be the use of solar home systems (SHS) in remote rural locations. To develop its policy for the deployment of SHS, the Government of East Timor must decide what size of SHS is optimal. This research investigates whether there is a relationship between SHS size and development. / The research adapts an evaluation approach developed by World Bank/UNDP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. This approach uses a combination of participatory and quantitative tools tailored to the East Timorese context through consultations with rural households about electrification and their use of SHS. Three SHS projects in East Timor were selected for evaluation, each of which had adopted a different sized SHS for their program. The smallest systems installed were 10 Wp single-lamp systems. The largest system was rated at 80 Wp and was supplied with four or six lamps. The third type of system was 40 Wp and provided three lamps / To assess the development impact of these different sizes of SHS, a set of Participatory Evaluation exercises were conducted with seventy-seven small groups of SHS users in twenty four rural communities. These exercises were supplemented with a Socio-economic Household Survey of 195 SHS users. The combined results of these evaluation processes enabled the three sizes of SHS to be compared for two types of benefits—assistance with carrying out important household tasks (i.e. ‘lighting-derived’ benefits) and attributes of SHS which were advantageous in comparison to use of non-electric lighting sources (i.e. ‘intrinsic’ benefits). Analysis of the research results showed that the small 10 Wp SHS provided much of the development impact of the larger systems. For lighting-derived benefits, there was little difference between the development impact of small and large systems. The larger systems provided greater benefit for domestic tasks undertaken in kitchen buildings, since the small and medium sized SHS did not provide lighting in these areas. For intrinsic benefits related to health and convenience, the small systems provided much the same benefits as larger systems. For financial benefits—considered by East Timorese SHS users to be the most important of the intrinsic benefits—smaller systems were found to offer slightly positive benefits due to their lower operating costs. Larger systems, however, were found to have a negative overall financial impact. / The research suggests three significant implications for the design of SHS programs in East Timor and comparable situations elsewhere: programs should focus on providing smaller systems rather than larger ones; systems should be designed to provide a light in the kitchen wherever possible to maximise the overall development impact; and SHS operating costs should be carefully matched to the incomes of rural householders to ensure that operation of the systems can be sustained by user households.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:24:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2008-02-01Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:12:45Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 higuchi_cap_me_botfca.pdf: 3411740 bytes, checksum: 927760eb8f275e46319878404d5bbaee (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A eletrificação rural constitui elemento de fundamental importância para o aumento da produção e aprimoramento do produto agrícola que conseqüentemente resulta num melhor nível de vida para o agricultor. Com novas e modernas tecnologias à disposição, o produtor rural tem a propriedade valorizada e pode buscar alternativas agrícolas para aumentar sua renda liquida e gerar empregos, além de estimular o mercado de produtos industrializados. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a evolução do Programa de Eletrificação Rural “Luz para Todos”, e apresentar os principais aspectos técnicos e sociais do programa, como veículo no desenvolvimento, referente aos pequenos produtores rurais na área de atuação da cooperativa de Eletrificação Rural de Itaí, Paranapanema e Avaré (CERIPA). Para tanto, foram analisados dados técnicos, financeiros e sociais, através de cadastros e planilhas, com o devido acompanhamento da implantação do Programa. Através destes dados, foi possível determinar índices técnicos e econômicos referentes à implantação do Programa e verificar a evolução do número de consumidores, a potência instalada, a energia faturada e receita bruta da cooperativa. Para a cooperativa, a implantação do programa promoveu um vetor de desenvolvimento, pois todos os consumidores atendidos, englobaram na massa de consumidores da cooperativa, tornando-a mais sólida e mais competitiva no mercado energético. Em apenas sete anos, no período de 2000 a 2006, a cooperativa teve um aumento de mais de 50% no número de ligações, dado este que se refletiu na carga instalada, triplicando o faturamento bruto. Pode-se notar no desenvolvimento deste trabalho uma forte omissão do governo com relação às metas estabelecidas e não cumpridas, onde se aplica simplesmente uma multa simbólica sobre o investimento não utilizado no programa. Não são levantados problemas... / Rural electrification is an outstanding element for production increase and agricultural product improvement which, consequently, results in better life quality for the small farmer. With new and modern technologies available, the rural producer has his property valorized and is able to search for agricultural alternatives to rise his net income and generate employment, besides stimulating the industrialized products market. This work aims to evaluate the evolution of the “Electric Lighting for All” Program and present main technical and social aspects of the program, as a vehicle of development, referring to the rural small farmers at CERIPA Rural Electrification Cooperative of Itaí, Paranapanema and Avaré. It was analyzed technical, financial and social data through registers and sheets with the proper following of the Program implantation. From the data, it was possible to determine the technical and economic indexes related to the Program settlement and verify the increase in number of consumers, installed power, the invoiced electrical energy and gross income of the Cooperative. For the Cooperative, this Program settlement promoted a vector of development, since all the attended small farmers entered the cooperative, making it more solid and competitive in the market. From 2000 to 2006, the cooperative enhanced over 50% reflecting in the installed power, triplicating the gross income.It can be noticed in this work development high omission of the government concerning the established targets not accomplished, where a symbolic tip is simply applied over the investment not used in the program. Problems are not raised, targets are not questioned; the allowance is distributed only to justify a “political willing” with the citizen.

This study concentrates specificaUy on assessing those elements of private and external costs and benefits which need to be accounted for in analyzing the role of electricity supply in a developing region. To facilitate this aim, three interrelated questions are addressed. The first question examines the reasons why a critical need for electrification in developing areas exists. In this regard, a selective review of the literature on development economics is offered, illuminating the previous neglect of the rural dimension in development and the associated problems of poverty and inequality, a lack of infrastructure and the general inability to fulfill basic needs. The second question is devoted exclusively to an economic analysis of the supply of electricity in developing areas. A broad theoretical review on whether an unregulated or regulated (private or public) sector should be responsible for the provision of electrification is presented. This evaluation highlights the various welfare implications and efficiency considerations that appear to be relevant in the present context. The final question, which constitutes the central proposition of the thesis, establishes how electrification should be supplied in developing areas. To this end, the conditions specific to a region in Venda are discussed. An attempt is made to identify the private and external costs and benefits relating to electricity supply and the corresponding costs and benefits pertaining to alternative sources of energy. Since the incidence and nature of these costs and benefits could only be ascertained from individual households, it was deemed necessary to undertake a questionnaire study of residents in Makwarela township and its periurban settlement of Lufule-Tshisele. A number of basic trends were evident from the research results. As far as the various benefits are concerned, respondents tended to place a much higher value on both the private and external benefits associated with electricity than its alternatives. At the same time, the survey found that although the private (or monetary) cost of electricity far exceeded the corresponding cost of alternative energy sources, the external costs were significant in the case of alternative energy sources, but virtually non-existent in the case of electricity. On the whole, the Venda survey seems to suggest that an economic case can be made for involving the broader community in subsidising the supply of electricity in Makwarela, Lufule-Tshisele and other areas. While such a subsidy can perhaps be justified on distribution grounds alone, and more specifically in terms of the rapid and pronounced effect it is likely to have on the quality of life in the region, its real worth lies in the fact that it may confer certain external benefits on the community.

No description available.

no abstract provided by author / Master of Science