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This study investigated factors affecting housing finance supply in Nigeria. Housing finance is a major factor determining the quality and tenure of housing consumption, the overall financial portfolio of the public and the stability and effectiveness of the financial system. In both developed and emerging economies, sovereign governments have intervened in the markets by setting up institutions characterised by a significant degree of regulation and segmentation from the rest of the financial markets and very often with governments providing subsidised housing finance. Attempts were made to develop an empirical model to reveal the underlying factors affecting housing finance in Nigeria. Time series data from sampled Universal Money Deposit Banks (UMDBs) balance sheets between 2003 and 2007 were used to assess the ability of the financial institutions to engage in long-term lending. Additional instruments in form of questionnaire, for the sectoral allocation of loans and advances by these financial institutions were employed to gather information from Corporate Banking / Loans and Advances Managers coupled with unstructured interviews. Supplementary questionnaires were directed to the users of housing finance at the household level as control for validity to the research findings. Applying a multiple regression approach, the model identified that housing finance supply in Nigeria is significantly driven by clusters of factors related to share capital and the reserves of the financial institutions. It is closely observed that housing finance models in the developed economies, which are largely financed by deposit liabilities, cannot be wholly adopted in the emerging economies. The implication for practice therefore is that financial institutions in the emerging economies must adequately increase their capital base for effective housing finance supply and introduce mortgage products with long-term tenure to actively mobilise resources for mortgage lending.

Em 2007 o Painel Intergovernamental Sobre Mudanças Climáticas relataram mudanças climáticas nas últimas décadas, principalmente aumento de temperatura. Tal fato tem preocupado cientistas sobre o futuro. Assim, estudos tem sido realizados para avaliar possíveis impactos na agropecuária. As pastagens no Brasil podem ser particularmente afetadas, devido a grande extensão de terras ocupadas, muitas delas em áreas marginais. No estado de São Paulo, estas mudanças poderão ser importantes para a Braquiaria brizantha cv. Marandu, gênero presente em cerca de 7,19 milhões de hectares. Assim, objetivou-se avaliar impactos das mudanças climáticas na produção desta forrageira em São Paulo. As projeções foram realizadas com base nos modelos climáticos regionalizados PRECIS e ETA-CPTEC, considerando os cenários de emissões do IPCC A2 (alta) e B2 (baixa). Os dados do período de 1963 a 2009 de 23 estações meteorológicas foram considerados como o clima atual (CA). Os períodos simulados foram de 2013 a 2040 e de 2043 a 2070. Para associar clima com crescimento de capim-marandu, foi utilizado o modelo empírico de Cruz e colaboradores: TAF=15.34*GDcorrigido (p=0.056, r²=0.95), onde TAF é a taxa diária de acúmulo de forragem; GDcorrigido é o grau-dia, calculado com 17,2°C de temperatura-base e corrigido por um fator de penalização hídrico (obtido pela relação armazenamento de água atual/máximo do solo, considerando três capacidades: 40, 60 e 100 mm). Interpolação espacial foi realizada usando os métodos do vizinho natural e krigagem, com auxílio do software ArcGis 10.1. Análises regionais foram realizadas com base no censo LUPA. Em geral, as projeções mostraram aumento futuro na produção potencial. Considerando o CA, o acúmulo anual de forragem médio (AAF) foi 18,4; 19,6 e 21,0 Mg MS/ha/ano em solos com capacidade de 40, 60 e 100 mm, respectivamente. Nesta mesma ordem, foram simuladas AAF de 26,3; 27,9 e 29,8 para o PRECIS (aumento médio de 42%) e 25,0; 26,6 e 28,7 Mg MS/ha/ano para o ETA-CPTEC (aumento médio de 36%), em cenário A2 para 2043-2070. Outras projeções indicam aumentos intermediários. Apesar do aumento anual, a variação irá aumentar entre estações e entre anos. O aumento absoluto será maior na estação chuvosa, tornando a estacionalidade de produção mais marcante. Tal resultado é mais evidente nas simulações com o modelo ETA-CPTEC e para solos com menor capacidade (40 mm). Nestes solos, a TAF mínima e máxima (kg MS/ha/dia) foram, respectivamente, 15,4 (inverno) e 94,6 (verão) para o CA; 22,9 (inverno) e 125,1 (verão) para o PRECIS e 18,2 (inverno) e 125,9 (verão) para o ETA-CPTEC, em cenário A2 para 2043-2070. Os resultados variaram muito entre regiões, especialmente para cenários do ETA-CPTEC (extremos variaram de <+10% até >+60%). Regiões mais quentes (oeste do estado, em geral) tem maior potencial de produção, porém terão menor incremento relativo no futuro. Os resultados são devidos ao aumento de temperatura em geral e redução da disponibilidade hídrica, principalmente na primavera, devido a maior evapotranspiração e não necessariamente à redução da precipitação. Estratégias para mitigação e adaptação foram sugeridas, principalmente relacionadas ao manejo da pastagem e dos animais para redução dos efeitos da menor disponibilidade hídrica, redução das emissões de gases de efeito estufa e uso da forragem excedente de verão. / In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change presented data showing climate changes in last decades, mainly temperature increase. This change has worried scientists about the future. Therefore, studies have been made to evaluate possible impacts of future climate changes on agricultural production. The pastures in Brazil can be especially affected, because they occupy large areas, many of them on marginal land. In São Paulo state these changes can be important for palisadegrass (Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandu), present in 7.19 million ha. Therefore, this research evaluated the impacts of climate change on palisadegrass yield in São Paulo state. Projections were created based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and ETA-CPTEC) considering the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 (high) and B2 (low). The data obtained from 23 weather stations from 1963 to 2009 was considered as current climate (base line) and future scenarios were determined from 2013 to 2040 and from 2043 to 2070. To associate the climate with palisadegrass growth, the following empirical model was used: DMAR=15.34*DDadjusted (p=0.056, r²=0.95), extracted from research conducted in São Carlos-SP-Brazil, where DMAR is dry matter accumulation rate; DDadjusted is degree days, calculated with 17.2°C of base temperature and adjusted by one drought attenuation factor (obtained by the ratio actual/maximum soil water storage, considering three soils capacities: 40, 60 and 100 mm). Spatial interpolation was carried out using natural neighbor and kriging methods, with ArcGis 10.1 software tools. Regional analyses were realized based on the LUPA/SP census. In general, the projections showed increase on future yield potential. On soils with 40, 60 and 100 mm of storage capacity, the average annual accumulation (AAA) was, respectively, 18.4, 19.6 and 21.0 using base line data, 26.3, 27.9 and 29.8 using PRECIS output (increase about 42%) and 25.0, 26.6 and 28.7 Mg DM/ha/ano using ETA-CPTEC output (increase about 36%), considering A2 scenario in period of 2043 to 2070. The other projections show intermediate increases. Despite annual yield increase, the variation between seasons (seasonality) and years will increase. The increase in DMAR will be higher in rainy than dry season, especially in soils with low water storage capacity (40 mm) (mainly evidenced by ETA-CPTEC scenarios). For these soils, minimum and maximum DMAR (kg DM/ha/day) was respectively 15.4 (winter) and 94.6 (summer) considering base line, 22.9 (winter) and 125.1 (summer) considering PRECIS model and 18.2 (winter) and 125.9 (summer) considering ETA model, both in A2 for 2043 to 2070 scenario. The results varied a lot between regions, especially in ETA-CPTEC scenarios (extremes ranged from <+10% to >+60%). Warmer regions (west region, in general) showed higher production potential, but they will have lower relative increase in the future. These results are due to increase in temperature in all long year and decrease in water availability in winter and spring, due to higher evapotranspiration and not necessarily decrease in rain. Strategies for mitigation and adaptation were suggested, including mainly pasture and animal management to reduce effects of lower water availability, reduce greenhouse gases emissions and use of summer forage surplus.

viii Title: Dynamics of the bow shock and magnetopause Author: Karel Jelínek Department: Department of Surface and Plasma Science Supervisor: Prof. RNDr. Zdeněk Němeček, DrSc. Department of Surface and Plasma Science e-mail address: zdenek.nemecek@mff.cuni.cz Abstract: The interplanetary space is a unique laboratory which allows us to dis- cover (i) a behavior of the plasma under different conditions, (ii) origin of its insta- bilities, and (iii) its interaction with obstacles such as the Earth's magnetosphere. The present thesis analyzes the outer Earth's magnetosphere. The results are based on the in situ sensing by a variety of the spacecraft (e.g., IMP-8, INTERBALL-1, MAGION-4, Geotail, Cluster-II and Themis). The solar wind curently monitored by the WIND and ACE spacecraft near the La- grange point L1 affects by its dynamic pressure the Earth's magnetic field which acts as a counter-pressure and the boundary where these pressures are balanced is the magnetopause. Due to supersonic solar wind speed, the bow shock forms in front of the magnetopause and a region in between, where plasma flows around an obstacle is named the magnetosheath. The thesis contributes to a deaper understanding of the dependence of magnetopause and bow shock shapes and positions, especially, (1) on the orientation of the inter-...

Orientadora: Profa. Dra. Andrea de Oliveira Cardoso / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do ABC, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência e Tecnologia Ambiental, 2016. / Devido à importância do conhecimento das variações da vazão de rios para o planejamento dos usos múltiplos da água, este mestrado objetiva explorar as influências remotas do clima, via padrões de variabilidades climáticas, e regionais, via precipitação e vazão em bacias de contribuição. Para tanto, foram desenvolvidos modelos empíricos de previsão de vazões mensais na parte baixa da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Paraná (BHRP), mais especificamente onde está localizada a Usina Hidrelétrica (UHE) de Itaipu. Visando garantir séries históricas longas e completas, necessárias para construção de modelos empíricos, os dados de precipitação foram tratados de forma a identificar dados duvidosos e preencher dados faltantes. Além disso, os dados de precipitação foram interpolados, pelo método de Krigagem ordinária, e posteriormente, regionalizados, através de Análise de Cluster, visando diminuir o número de séries inseridas no modelo, mantendo regiões com padrões distintos. O modelo empírico utilizado foi o de Regressão Linear Múltipla, sendo aplicado para estimativas de vazão em Itaipu com defasagens variando de 1 a 4 meses, considerando todos os meses consecutivos (modelo geral). Também foram desenvolvidos modelos mensais, para cada mês do ano, separadamente, com defasagens variando de 1 a 12 meses. Para o desenvolvimento dos modelos, considerou-se o período de 1980 a 2000 para calibração e o período de 2001 a 2010, para validação. Estes modelos foram testados com diferentes grupos de preditores, tais como: índices climáticos; precipitação em regiões pluviométricas homogêneas; vazão em pontos a montante e na UHE Itaipu; e o conjunto de todos os preditores anteriores. Por meio do método stepwise foram selecionados os preditores mais significativos, sendo destacados os seguintes preditores: índices do El Niño Oscilação Sul e de anomalias de temperatura da superfície do mar no Atlântico Tropical Sul; precipitação em regiões ao sul da BHRP; e a própria vazão em Itaipu defasada. Os modelos foram validados, indicando de um modo geral maior desempenho nas defasagens mais curtas, quando considerados os preditores de vazão e precipitação, sendo que para os meses de janeiro, julho e agosto, a precipitação tem maior contribuição. Nas defasagens mais longas, verificou-se que o melhor desempenho, ocorre para o modelo considerando somente os índices climáticos, mas na maioria dos casos os extremos não são bem capturados, exceto nos meses de abril, junho e julho. Portanto, os resultados deste estudo demonstram a importância de serem consideradas as influências remotas do clima nas estimativas de vazão, principalmente para previsões de mais longo prazo. / Given the importance of knowledge of river flow variations to the planning of multiple uses of water, this objective masters explore the remote climate influences, though patterns of climate variability, and regional, though precipitation and flow in contribution of basins. Therefore, were developed empirical models of monthly streamflow in the lower of basin the Parana River (BHRP) at the site Itaipu Dam. In order to ensure long and complete historical series, necessary for building empirical models, the rainfall data were analyzed in order to identify unreliable data and fill out incomplete sets. Furthermore, the precipitation data were interpolated by the method kriging ordinary and subsequently regionalized through the cluster analysis, in order to reduce the number of inserted in series model, keeping regions with different patterns. The empirical model used was of multiple linear regression to estimate streamflow in Itaipu with period lagged by 1 to 4 months considering all consecutive months (general model). Also monthly models were developed for each month of the year, separately, with period lagged by 1 to 12 months. For the development of the models, it was considered the period from 1980-2000 for calibration and the period from 2001-2010, for validation. These models were tested with different groups of predictors as: I) only the lagged climate indices; II) only precipitation in homogeneous rainfall regions; III) only flow at upstream points and even the streamflow of Itaipu; IV) and the set of predictors cited I, II and III. Through stepwise method the most significant predictors were selected, being highlighted the best predictors: the contents of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and temperature anomalies of the sea surface in the tropical South Atlantic; rainfall in areas south of BHRP; and proper streamflow lagged in Itaipu. The models were validated, indicating generally higher performance in shorter lags, when considered predictors of flow and precipitation, except for the months of january, july and august, where precipitation has greater contribution. In the longer lags, it was found that the best performance is for the model considering only the climate indices, but in most extreme cases is not captured, except in april, june and july. Therefore, the results of this study demonstrate the importance of considering the remote climate influences on flow estimates, especially longer-term forecasts.

Orientador: Bernardo Laks / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Fisica Gleb Wataghin / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-12T11:04:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcal_Nei_D.pdf: 86929566 bytes, checksum: 04c8aa7c4176175d973ff0990de45bad (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 / Resumo: Antes da década de 70, todos os materiais poliméricos eram considerados como isolantes e suas aplicações tecnológicas levavam em conta esta característica. De lá para cá, uma nova classe desses materiais, os polímeros conjugados, determinaram uma nova forma de aplicação de sistemas poliméricos baseados em suas propriedades elétricas e de ótica não-linear. Um maior estímulo surgiu a partir do experimento de Mac Diarmid, Heeger e Shirakawa [1] que, expondo o Poliacetileno a agentes oxidantes, demonstraram ser possível obter um sistema no estado metálico. Atualmente encontramos filmes de Poliacetileno com condutividade elétrica da ordem do cobre (105 S/cm). O Poliacetileno, quando no regime metálico, i.e., sob alta dopagem, apresenta algumas características de metal comum: alta condutividade elétrica (cresce 13 ordens de grandeza), susceptibilidade de Pauli finita e absorção no infravermelho. Já outras propriedades como a presença de modos vibracionais localizados no infravermelho e o não comportamento da condutividade com o inverso da temperatura evidenciam ser este um material não usual. Estes polímeros conjugados que apresentam uma extensiva delocalização de elétrons são considerados semicondutores orgânicos com gap de energia relativamente pequeno, da ordem de 1,5 a 2,0 eV. O comportamento semicondutor e as propriedades decorrentes entre os elétrons e a luz têm originado a construção de vários dispositivos semicondutores e optoeletrônicos [2, 7, 3]. Problemas técnicos como estabilidade ao ambiente, processabilidade e solubilidade destes materiais provocaram a produção de uma nova classe de materiais poliméricos que foi obtida por polimerização eletroquímica [57, 58, 59] cuja estrutura molecular trata-se de sistemas que introduzem grupos vinilas (V) entre anéis de tiofeno (T). Experimentos de voltametria cíclica, espectroscopia de absorção ótica e ressonância eletrônica de spin indicam que esses sistemas possuem potencial de ionização e gap de energia menores que o apresentado pelo Politiofeno. Estudos com oligômeros de tiofeno (T) com vinilenos (V) sugerem a possibilidade de escolha desse material como alternativa ao politiofeno. O objetivo deste trabalho foi investigar teoricamente a influência do grupo vinila (V) sobre as propriedades eletrônicas nestes polímeros, reproduzir os resultados experimentais e determinar qual proporção de vinilenos (V) e tiofenos (T) que provoque o menor gap de energia de forma que quando sobre dopagem possibilite uma transição isolante metal. Desta maneira, primeiramente, determinamos as geometrias dos sistemas de interesse utilizando métodos semi-empíricos. Posteriormente investigamos a estrutura eletrônica dos polímeros de tiofeno (T) com vinilenos (V), sendo que estes polímeros foram estudados para o caso neutro e na presença de defeitos conformacionais do tipo pólaron e bipólaron. Finalizamos o estudo investigando as absorções ópticas UV-vis dos sistemas de interesse através de cálculos semi-empíricos utilizando o código ZINDO/S. / Abstract: Before the 1970s, all polymeric materials were considered insulators; therefore their technological applications would take this trait into account. Since then, a new development on these materials, the conjugated polymers, determined new applications for polymeric systems based in their electrical and nonlinear optical properties. Greater interest arose from the experiment by Mac Diarmid, Heeger and Shirakawa [1] who, by using polyacetylene and oxidizing agents, showed that it is possible to obtain a system in the metallic state. Nowadays it is possible to find polyacetylene films with electrical conductivity of the order of copper (10-5 S/cm). Polyacetylene, when in its metallic behavior, i.e., under high dopage, presents some characteristics of real metal: high electrical conductivity (increased by 13 orders of magnitude), finite Pauli susceptibility and infrared absorption. On the other hand, other properties such as the presence of vibrational modes localized on infrared and the odd behavior of conductivity versus the inverse of temperature make clear that this is a unusual material. These conjugated polymers, presenting an extensive delocalization of electrons, are considered organic semiconductors with relatively low energy gap, of the order of 1.5 to 2.0 eV. The semiconductive behavior and the resulting properties of the interaction between electrons and light have been the drive for the manufacturing of several semiconductor and optoelectronic devices [2, 7, 3]. Technical problems, such as environmental stability, processability and solubility of these materials, gave rise to the production of a new kind of polymeric materials that were obtained by electrochemical polymerization [57, 58, 59], in which the molecular structure is a system that introduces vinylene groups (V) between tiophene rings (T). Experiments involving cyclic voltametry, optical absorption spectrometry and spin electronic ressonance indicate that these systems have ionization potential and energy gap smaller than those presented by Polythiophene. Studies with thiopene oligomers (T) with vinylene (V) suggest this material can be chosen as an alternative to Polytiophene. The goal of this work is to theoretically investigate the in uence of the vinyle group (V) on the electronic properties on these polymers, reproduce experimental results and determine what is the vinylene (V) to thiophene (T) rate that causes the smallest energy gap, such that doping will produce a insulator-metal transition. Therefore, we first determine the target systems' geometry using semi-empirical methods. Then we investigate the electronic structure of the tiophene (T) and vinylene (V) polymers both for neutral systems and in the presence of conformational defects of polaron and bipolaron types. We nalized the study by investigating the UV-vis optical absorption of the target systems through semi-empirical calculations using ZINDO/S code. / Doutorado / Estrutura Eletronica de Atomos e Moleculas ; Teoria / Doutor em Ciências

Em 2007 o Painel Intergovernamental Sobre Mudanças Climáticas relataram mudanças climáticas nas últimas décadas, principalmente aumento de temperatura. Tal fato tem preocupado cientistas sobre o futuro. Assim, estudos tem sido realizados para avaliar possíveis impactos na agropecuária. As pastagens no Brasil podem ser particularmente afetadas, devido a grande extensão de terras ocupadas, muitas delas em áreas marginais. No estado de São Paulo, estas mudanças poderão ser importantes para a Braquiaria brizantha cv. Marandu, gênero presente em cerca de 7,19 milhões de hectares. Assim, objetivou-se avaliar impactos das mudanças climáticas na produção desta forrageira em São Paulo. As projeções foram realizadas com base nos modelos climáticos regionalizados PRECIS e ETA-CPTEC, considerando os cenários de emissões do IPCC A2 (alta) e B2 (baixa). Os dados do período de 1963 a 2009 de 23 estações meteorológicas foram considerados como o clima atual (CA). Os períodos simulados foram de 2013 a 2040 e de 2043 a 2070. Para associar clima com crescimento de capim-marandu, foi utilizado o modelo empírico de Cruz e colaboradores: TAF=15.34*GDcorrigido (p=0.056, r²=0.95), onde TAF é a taxa diária de acúmulo de forragem; GDcorrigido é o grau-dia, calculado com 17,2°C de temperatura-base e corrigido por um fator de penalização hídrico (obtido pela relação armazenamento de água atual/máximo do solo, considerando três capacidades: 40, 60 e 100 mm). Interpolação espacial foi realizada usando os métodos do vizinho natural e krigagem, com auxílio do software ArcGis 10.1. Análises regionais foram realizadas com base no censo LUPA. Em geral, as projeções mostraram aumento futuro na produção potencial. Considerando o CA, o acúmulo anual de forragem médio (AAF) foi 18,4; 19,6 e 21,0 Mg MS/ha/ano em solos com capacidade de 40, 60 e 100 mm, respectivamente. Nesta mesma ordem, foram simuladas AAF de 26,3; 27,9 e 29,8 para o PRECIS (aumento médio de 42%) e 25,0; 26,6 e 28,7 Mg MS/ha/ano para o ETA-CPTEC (aumento médio de 36%), em cenário A2 para 2043-2070. Outras projeções indicam aumentos intermediários. Apesar do aumento anual, a variação irá aumentar entre estações e entre anos. O aumento absoluto será maior na estação chuvosa, tornando a estacionalidade de produção mais marcante. Tal resultado é mais evidente nas simulações com o modelo ETA-CPTEC e para solos com menor capacidade (40 mm). Nestes solos, a TAF mínima e máxima (kg MS/ha/dia) foram, respectivamente, 15,4 (inverno) e 94,6 (verão) para o CA; 22,9 (inverno) e 125,1 (verão) para o PRECIS e 18,2 (inverno) e 125,9 (verão) para o ETA-CPTEC, em cenário A2 para 2043-2070. Os resultados variaram muito entre regiões, especialmente para cenários do ETA-CPTEC (extremos variaram de <+10% até >+60%). Regiões mais quentes (oeste do estado, em geral) tem maior potencial de produção, porém terão menor incremento relativo no futuro. Os resultados são devidos ao aumento de temperatura em geral e redução da disponibilidade hídrica, principalmente na primavera, devido a maior evapotranspiração e não necessariamente à redução da precipitação. Estratégias para mitigação e adaptação foram sugeridas, principalmente relacionadas ao manejo da pastagem e dos animais para redução dos efeitos da menor disponibilidade hídrica, redução das emissões de gases de efeito estufa e uso da forragem excedente de verão. / In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change presented data showing climate changes in last decades, mainly temperature increase. This change has worried scientists about the future. Therefore, studies have been made to evaluate possible impacts of future climate changes on agricultural production. The pastures in Brazil can be especially affected, because they occupy large areas, many of them on marginal land. In São Paulo state these changes can be important for palisadegrass (Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandu), present in 7.19 million ha. Therefore, this research evaluated the impacts of climate change on palisadegrass yield in São Paulo state. Projections were created based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and ETA-CPTEC) considering the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 (high) and B2 (low). The data obtained from 23 weather stations from 1963 to 2009 was considered as current climate (base line) and future scenarios were determined from 2013 to 2040 and from 2043 to 2070. To associate the climate with palisadegrass growth, the following empirical model was used: DMAR=15.34*DDadjusted (p=0.056, r²=0.95), extracted from research conducted in São Carlos-SP-Brazil, where DMAR is dry matter accumulation rate; DDadjusted is degree days, calculated with 17.2°C of base temperature and adjusted by one drought attenuation factor (obtained by the ratio actual/maximum soil water storage, considering three soils capacities: 40, 60 and 100 mm). Spatial interpolation was carried out using natural neighbor and kriging methods, with ArcGis 10.1 software tools. Regional analyses were realized based on the LUPA/SP census. In general, the projections showed increase on future yield potential. On soils with 40, 60 and 100 mm of storage capacity, the average annual accumulation (AAA) was, respectively, 18.4, 19.6 and 21.0 using base line data, 26.3, 27.9 and 29.8 using PRECIS output (increase about 42%) and 25.0, 26.6 and 28.7 Mg DM/ha/ano using ETA-CPTEC output (increase about 36%), considering A2 scenario in period of 2043 to 2070. The other projections show intermediate increases. Despite annual yield increase, the variation between seasons (seasonality) and years will increase. The increase in DMAR will be higher in rainy than dry season, especially in soils with low water storage capacity (40 mm) (mainly evidenced by ETA-CPTEC scenarios). For these soils, minimum and maximum DMAR (kg DM/ha/day) was respectively 15.4 (winter) and 94.6 (summer) considering base line, 22.9 (winter) and 125.1 (summer) considering PRECIS model and 18.2 (winter) and 125.9 (summer) considering ETA model, both in A2 for 2043 to 2070 scenario. The results varied a lot between regions, especially in ETA-CPTEC scenarios (extremes ranged from <+10% to >+60%). Warmer regions (west region, in general) showed higher production potential, but they will have lower relative increase in the future. These results are due to increase in temperature in all long year and decrease in water availability in winter and spring, due to higher evapotranspiration and not necessarily decrease in rain. Strategies for mitigation and adaptation were suggested, including mainly pasture and animal management to reduce effects of lower water availability, reduce greenhouse gases emissions and use of summer forage surplus.

Detecting abnormal operating conditions, which will lead to faults developing later, has important economic implications for industries trying to meet their performance and production goals. It is unacceptable to wait for failures that have potential safety, environmental and financial consequences. Moving from a “reactive” strategy to a “proactive” strategy can improve critical equipment reliability and availability while constraining maintenance costs, reducing production deferrals, decreasing the need for spare parts. Once the fault initiates, predicting its progression and deterioration can enable timely interventions without risk to personnel safety or to equipment integrity. This work presents an online-integrated condition monitoring and prognostics framework that addresses the above issues holistically. The proposed framework aligns fully with ISO 17359:2011 and derives from the I-P and P-F curve. Depending upon the running state of machine with respect to its I-P and P-F curve an algorithm will do one of the following: (1) Predict the ideal behaviour and any departure from the normal operating envelope using a combination of Evolving Clustering Method (ECM), a normalised fuzzy weighted distance and tracking signal method. (2) Identify the cause of the departure through an automated diagnostics system using a modified version of ECM for classification. (3) Predict the short-term progression of fault using a modified version of the Dynamic Evolving Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (DENFIS), called here MDENFIS and a tracking signal method. (4) Predict the long term progression of fault (Prognostics) using a combination of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)- Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) for predicting the future input values and MDENFIS for predicting the long term progression of fault (output). The proposed model was tested and compared against other models in the literature using benchmarks and field data. This work demonstrates four noticeable improvements over previous methods: (1) Enhanced testing prediction accuracy, (2) comparable processing time if not better, (3) the ability to detect sudden changes in the process and finally (4) the ability to identify and isolate the problem source with high accuracy.

Models of the fate and transport of river plumes and the bacteria they carry into lakes are developed. They are needed to enable informed decisions about beach closures to avoid economic losses, and to help design water intakes and operate combined sewer overflow schemes to obviate exposure of the public to potential pathogens. This study advances our understanding of river plumes dynamics in coastal waters by means of field studies and numerical techniques. Extensive field measurements were carried out in the swimming seasons of 2006 and 2007 on the Grand River plume as it enters Lake Michigan. They included simultaneous aerial photography, measurements of lake physical properties, the addition of artificial tracers to track the plume, and bacterial sampling. Our observed results show more flow classes than included in previous studies (e.g. CORMIX). Onshore wind can have a significant effect on the plume and whether it impacts the shoreline. A new classification scheme based on the relative magnitude of plume-crossflow length scale and Richardson number based on the wind speed is devised. Previous studies on lateral spreading are complemented with a new relationship in the near field. The plume thickness decreased rapidly with distance from the river mouth and a new non-dimensional relationship to predict thickness is developed. Empirical near field models for surface buoyant plumes are reviewed and a near field trajectory and dilution model for large aspect ratio surface discharge channels is devised. Bacterial reductions due to dilution were generally small (less than 10:1) up to 4.5 km from the river mouth. E. coli decay rates were significantly affected by solar radiation and ranged from 0.2 to 2.2 day-1 which were within the range of previous studies in Lake Michigan. Total coliform survived longer than E. coli suggesting different die-off mechanisms. Mathematical models of the bacterial transport are developed that employ a nested modeling scheme to represent the 3D hydrodynamic processes of surface river discharges in the Great Lakes. A particle tracking model is used that provides the capability to track a decaying tracer and better quantify mixing due to turbulent diffusion. Particle tracking models have considerable advantages over gradient diffusion models in simulating bacterial behavior nearshore that results in an improved representation of bacteria diffusion, decay and transport. Due to the complexity and wide variation of the time and length scale of the hydrodynamic and turbulent processes in the near field (where plume mixing is dominated by initial momentum and buoyancy) and far field (where plume mixing is dominated by ambient turbulence), a coupling technique is adapted. The far field random walk particle tracking model incorporates the empirical near field model. It simulates the transport, diffusion and decay of bacteria as discrete particles and employs the near field output as the source and transports the particles based on ambient currents predicted by the 3D hydrodynamic model. The coupled model improves dilution predictions in the near field. The new techniques advance our knowledge of the nearshore fate and transport of bacteria in the Great Lakes and can be ultimately applied to the NOAA Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System to provide a reliable prediction tool for bacterial transport in recreational waters.

Over the Counter Exchange of India (OTCEI) was established in 1992 mainly to provide a platform for small and medium sized companies to raise money for their capital requirements. It is a well defined dealer market with market makers giving bid and ask quotes. It was established with state-of-the art technology with ringless, scripless trading. In this study, we develop a theoretical model to decompose spread into its three components in a dealer market. This model is further empirically examined by using OTCEI data. We find that Inventory holding cost to be the highest on OTCEI followed by Adverse Information cost and Order Processing cost. The result reflects market microstructure which is peculiar to OTCEI. The methodology developed in this study is basically a generalization of S toll's (1989) methodology. . Roll(1984) shows that in a pure order processing world, spread equals the square root of negative of serial covariances of successive differences of transaction prices. Stoll (1989) relates spread to the covariance of successive difference of transaction prices and that of the quotes. Stoll introduces two parameters, 5, which is a measure of magnitude of price change and JI, the probability of reversal of type of transaction, that is, from Bid to Ask or vice-versa, to model the Bid/Ask price movements from one transaction to the next. Thus Stoll, from this model, establishes a theoretical relationship between serial covariances of successive differences of transaction and quote returns and spread. 5 and n are estimated via regression of serial covariances of transaction and quote, returns on average proportional spread square. With these two parameters, Stoll finally decomposes spread into three components. δ, is the amount of price change between transactions for two reasons- Inventory holding reason and adverse information reason. Stoll explains these price changes due to two reasons with just one parameter, 5. This forms the main motivation of this study. In our study, we let 8 assume two different values, 5i and 82 which attempts to capture the price changes due to the two different causes viz inventory holding and adverse information. It is convenient to think of these two S's being associated with two different states of transactions. However, these states themselves are indeterminate . In other words, the price change could be due to inventory reasons, or due to trading with an informed trader, or due to both. Thus, while Stoll assumes only one 8, in our study, we have two different values of 8. Thus, with three parameters, 81, 82 and n, this study attempts to estimate the relevant parameters and realistically decompose the three components of spread in a dealer market. Just like Stoll, the developed theoretical model also relates serial covariances of transaction price changes and quoted price changes to spread square. However, unlike Stoll, now there are 3 parameters, namely, 5j, 82 and n. As it is impossible to solve three unknowns with just two equations, it becomes necessary to introduce one more equation relating the three parameters to the spread. It is here that we introduce, for the first time, the serial covariance of the second order differences of the transaction price changes, which is related to spread via an equation. Intuitively, we can explain this relationship using Roll's result. Roll(1984) has shown that spread equals square root of the negative serial covariances of transaction price changes in a pure order processing world. Since the second order difference is nothing but the rate of price changes, it also must be related to spread, since the price change themselves are related to it, empirically, we find that spread square significantly affects the serial covariance of second order difference of price changes as well. Besides explaining the price changes with just one 5, Stoll's method of decomposition is not realistic. Though his method of decomposition does yield three components of spread, in reality, it lumps Adverse information cost and Inventory holding cost together. In our study, we make use of the state-of-the art Huang and Stoll's (1997) methodology of decomposition of spread. We first embed the developed theoretical price-movement model into that of Huang and S toll's this yields a functional relationship between 5i and 52 and a and |3 of Huang and Stoll, which directly refers to the adverse information and inventory holding components respectively. Thus, in our study, we realistically decompose the components of spread and OTCEI and empirically too, we find that the components estimated from our methodology does reflect the market microstructure of OTCEI. Apart from developing and empirically testing the theoretical model, we also see if it fits the observed data on OTCEI. We find that the theoretical model does not exactly conform to the observed data in OTCEI, necessitating some empirical fine-tuning. We build an empirical model which is again used to get the three components of spread. We also estimate components of spread in OTCEI using Stoll's and Huang and Stoll's methodology and we compare them with the estimates obtained using our methodology. We find that Stoll's methodology overstates the Adverse information component of spread and understates the inventory holding component of spread and Huang and Stoll's methodology and Our methodology and model yields estimates of components of spread which is more in tune with the market micros tructure of OTCEI. The estimates obtained from empirical model too conforms to the market microstructure of OTCEI.