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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

A Theoretical Model And Empirical Analysis Of Components Of Spread In Over The Counter Exchange Of India

Rao, Jyothi G 03 1900 (has links)
Over the Counter Exchange of India (OTCEI) was established in 1992 mainly to provide a platform for small and medium sized companies to raise money for their capital requirements. It is a well defined dealer market with market makers giving bid and ask quotes. It was established with state-of-the art technology with ringless, scripless trading. In this study, we develop a theoretical model to decompose spread into its three components in a dealer market. This model is further empirically examined by using OTCEI data. We find that Inventory holding cost to be the highest on OTCEI followed by Adverse Information cost and Order Processing cost. The result reflects market microstructure which is peculiar to OTCEI. The methodology developed in this study is basically a generalization of S toll's (1989) methodology. . Roll(1984) shows that in a pure order processing world, spread equals the square root of negative of serial covariances of successive differences of transaction prices. Stoll (1989) relates spread to the covariance of successive difference of transaction prices and that of the quotes. Stoll introduces two parameters, 5, which is a measure of magnitude of price change and JI, the probability of reversal of type of transaction, that is, from Bid to Ask or vice-versa, to model the Bid/Ask price movements from one transaction to the next. Thus Stoll, from this model, establishes a theoretical relationship between serial covariances of successive differences of transaction and quote returns and spread. 5 and n are estimated via regression of serial covariances of transaction and quote, returns on average proportional spread square. With these two parameters, Stoll finally decomposes spread into three components. δ, is the amount of price change between transactions for two reasons- Inventory holding reason and adverse information reason. Stoll explains these price changes due to two reasons with just one parameter, 5. This forms the main motivation of this study. In our study, we let 8 assume two different values, 5i and 82 which attempts to capture the price changes due to the two different causes viz inventory holding and adverse information. It is convenient to think of these two S's being associated with two different states of transactions. However, these states themselves are indeterminate . In other words, the price change could be due to inventory reasons, or due to trading with an informed trader, or due to both. Thus, while Stoll assumes only one 8, in our study, we have two different values of 8. Thus, with three parameters, 81, 82 and n, this study attempts to estimate the relevant parameters and realistically decompose the three components of spread in a dealer market. Just like Stoll, the developed theoretical model also relates serial covariances of transaction price changes and quoted price changes to spread square. However, unlike Stoll, now there are 3 parameters, namely, 5j, 82 and n. As it is impossible to solve three unknowns with just two equations, it becomes necessary to introduce one more equation relating the three parameters to the spread. It is here that we introduce, for the first time, the serial covariance of the second order differences of the transaction price changes, which is related to spread via an equation. Intuitively, we can explain this relationship using Roll's result. Roll(1984) has shown that spread equals square root of the negative serial covariances of transaction price changes in a pure order processing world. Since the second order difference is nothing but the rate of price changes, it also must be related to spread, since the price change themselves are related to it, empirically, we find that spread square significantly affects the serial covariance of second order difference of price changes as well. Besides explaining the price changes with just one 5, Stoll's method of decomposition is not realistic. Though his method of decomposition does yield three components of spread, in reality, it lumps Adverse information cost and Inventory holding cost together. In our study, we make use of the state-of-the art Huang and Stoll's (1997) methodology of decomposition of spread. We first embed the developed theoretical price-movement model into that of Huang and S toll's this yields a functional relationship between 5i and 52 and a and |3 of Huang and Stoll, which directly refers to the adverse information and inventory holding components respectively. Thus, in our study, we realistically decompose the components of spread and OTCEI and empirically too, we find that the components estimated from our methodology does reflect the market microstructure of OTCEI. Apart from developing and empirically testing the theoretical model, we also see if it fits the observed data on OTCEI. We find that the theoretical model does not exactly conform to the observed data in OTCEI, necessitating some empirical fine-tuning. We build an empirical model which is again used to get the three components of spread. We also estimate components of spread in OTCEI using Stoll's and Huang and Stoll's methodology and we compare them with the estimates obtained using our methodology. We find that Stoll's methodology overstates the Adverse information component of spread and understates the inventory holding component of spread and Huang and Stoll's methodology and Our methodology and model yields estimates of components of spread which is more in tune with the market micros tructure of OTCEI. The estimates obtained from empirical model too conforms to the market microstructure of OTCEI.
2

Impact Of Option Introduction On Different Characteristics Of Underlying Stocks In NSE, India

Joshi, Manisha 12 1900 (has links)
Financial Derivatives are one of the most popular and emerging innovations in the field of financial engineering. Since their inception, there has been a phenomenal growth in the volumes of derivatives traded all over the world. Financial markets are known to be extremely volatile and derivatives provide a way of eliminating or reducing the risks involved in these markets. Since these instruments derive their value from some underlying asset, trading in these instruments is bound to affect the underlying assets. Thus it becomes important to examine what these effects are and whether they have been favourable or detrimental to the underlying stock markets specially when there has been an explosive growth of these financial derivatives all over the world. This issue gains more importance in the case of emerging markets like India as they try to be more competitive and efficient as the developed Western markets. This thesis mainly deals with looking at this impact on the Indian stock markets. The Indian markets still being very new in this area, not many studies have been reported here related to this issue. The main focus of this thesis is to provide some more evidence on the impact of one kind of derivative instrument, namely options on different characteristics of underlying stocks in the Indian stock market. The thesis has the following objectives: • To examine the impact of option introduction on the price of underlying stocks in National Stock Exchange (NSE). • To examine the impact of option introduction on the volatility of underlying stocks in NSE • To examine the impact of option introduction on liquidity of underlying stocks in NSE NSE introduced derivatives beginning with index futures on June 12, 2000, followed by index options on June 4, 2001, options on individual securities on July 2, 2001 and finally futures on individual securities on November 9, 2001. Due to the temporal proximity of the introduction of index options and individual options, there exists a possibility of an interaction of these two effects. This problem is solved by a judiciously chosen sampling design. In particular, three groups of stocks are considered. The first group consists of stocks on which options were first introduced on 2nd July 2001 and thus would exhibit a combined effect of the two events if any. The second group consists of stocks on which options were introduced much later and therefore would show effects of individual option introduction if any. The third group comprises of nonoptioned stocks whose returns are considered around the date of index option introduction and thus would show effects of index option alone if any. To separate the two effects an ANOVA/ Logistic Regression model is used. An objective selection of the event and estimation windows is done using a Bayesian Change Point Analysis. The first part of the thesis looks at the effect of option introduction on the price of underlying stocks. A standard event study methodology as has been used in the literature is employed for this purpose. The study does not find any significant effect of option introduction on the prices. The second part of the thesis deals with the effect on volatility. Volatility is measured as the risk of a stock and as is done in the literature, three kinds of risk are looked at: total risk, systematic risk and the unsystematic risk. In case of the total risk, an F-test and an Ansari Bradley test is used to check for changes in the variance and scale parameters of market-adjusted continuously compounded returns of the stocks before and after option introduction. The results of these tests are recorded as a categorical variable taking on the value 0 for no change and 1 for a change and a Binomial Logistic Regression is used to separate the effects of the two events. Furthermore, after recording the results of the above mentioned tests as a categorical variable with three categories (0, 1, -1), a Multinomial Logistic Regression is also used in order to estimate the direction of the change (increase, decrease or no change). The ratios of after to before total risks are also analyzed using an ANOVA model. The systematic risk is measured using three kinds of betas – OLS betas, Scholes-Williams betas and Fowler-Rorke betas. The differences in the before and after betas of every stock are modelled using an ANOVA model in order to separate the two effects as well as the interaction effect. The unsystematic risk is estimated by the conditional variances and the unconditional variances of ARMA and ARMA-GARCH models fitted to market model excess returns. The ANOVA model is used here as well. In addition to this, the before and after ARCH and GARCH coefficients of GARCH (1, 1) models fitted to the excess returns are also compared using the ANOVA model. The results indicate that individual options are leading to a decline in total risk however index options are causing an increase in total risk. The interaction effect is significant in this case thereby causing an increase in total risk in the Group I stocks. The OLS betas indicate that individual option introduction seems to have increased the systematic risk. The Scholes-Williams betas indicate that index option introduction seems to have increased the systematic risk. The Fowler Rorke betas on the other hand, do not show any significant impact of individual option or index option introduction. For all the three betas index options introduction seems to have no effect on the systematic risk. Though the interaction effect seems to be significant in all the three cases, it however does not significantly affect the systematic risk in Group I stocks. As regards the unsystematic risk, both the conditional and unconditional variances of ARMA models show a significant reduction for individual option introduction but index options do not have any significant impact on either one of these measures. In case of unconditional variances of ARMA-GARCH models, none of the effects come out as significant. While comparing the news and persistence coefficients of GARCH (1, 1) models, the news coefficients indicate that the due to index option introduction, stocks are becoming more efficient in terms of absorbing the news more rapidly. No significant effect of either event is found on the persistence coefficients. The last part of the thesis deals with the liquidity issue. Liquidity has been measured using two measures – relative volume (based on daily data) and implicit bid-ask spread given by Roll (1984) (calculated from intra-day data). In case of the liquidity measures, the Logistic Regression models are used i.e. a categorical variable with two or three categories obtained from the results of a Wilcoxon Rank Sum test for comparing the median volume and spread before and after option introduction, is used. It is found that for the relative volume, individual option introduction has led to a favourable effect in terms of increasing the volume post introduction of options; however index options seem to have had a negative effect. As for the spread, index options seem to have had a stabilizing influence on the underlying stocks than the individual options.

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