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Emerging stock market microstructure : empirical studies of the National Stock Exchange of IndiaCamilleri, Silvio J. January 2006 (has links)
This thesis adopts an empirical approach to examine various market microstructure issues, using data from the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). Whilst the respective empirical analyses may be considered as self-contained investigations, they are primarily linked through the common objective of understanding the mechanics of the pricing process as it occurs on actual markets, using the NSE as exemplar. The first major focus of the dissertation is non-synchronous trading: empirical evidence of nonsynchronicity is obtained by testing for predictability as between indices of different levels of liquidity. A simple test of the analysis of trading-break returns is proposed to infer whether predictability may be mainly attributable to non-synchronous trading or whether it constitutes a delayed adjustment of traders' expectations. The second question tackled in the thesis is whether volatility on the NSE may be considered as justified or excessive. Rathert han adopting the established methodology of comparing stock price changes to information about expected dividends, the research question is split up into two subsidiary ones. The first question is whether volatility is related to information flows, whilst the second related questionc oncernst he relationship betweenv olatility and returns. Three sources of excessive volatility are pin-pointed. Monday effects are found in index data but not in the underlying stocks-indicating index fluctuations which are not information-related. A second indicator of excessive price movements is the pronounced volatility which coincides with the fiscal year end of quoted companies but which is not accompanied by a similar increase in long-term returns. A third indication of unjustified price fluctuations is that volatility seems unrelated to returns when considering a long-term time series. The third topic of the thesis relates to the efficacy of opening and closing call auctions. This issue may be considered as the crux of the dissertation and it is tackled by analysing the effects of the suspension of a call auction system on NSE. Changes in volatility, efficiency and liquidity following the suspension are analysed, and an event study is presented. The relationship between call auctions and long-term volatility is also investigated. The findings suggest that the expected benefits of call auctions may not always materialise, possibly due to an inappropriately structured auction, or because a liquidity threshold for stocks must be surpassed for the expected benefits to accrue.
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Studies On Some Aspects Of Liquidity Of Stocks : Limit Order Executions In The Indian Stock MarketChatterjee, Devlina 09 1900 (has links) (PDF)
We study some aspects of liquidity of stocks traded through the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India.
Initially we examine the multi-dimensional nature of liquidity by conducting day-wise factor analysis of eleven liquidity proxies across a cross-section of stocks, using data from two periods reflecting different market conditions. Five factors emerge consistently, interpretable as depth, spread, volume, price elasticity and relative activity.
Subsequently, we study execution of limit orders in the NSE from three angles.
First we consider order execution probability, using 106 stock-specific logistic models. Important predictors of order execution probability are price premium followed by volatility, relative activity, bid ask spread and order imbalance. Some differences are noted when comparing companies of different sizes and between buy and sell orders.
Second, we study order execution times using survival analysis. Several diagnostic tests indicate that parametric Accelerated Failure Time models using the log-logistic distribution for the survival time S(t) are suitable for current data. 100 stock-specific models are built; results are consistent with the logistic models. Additionally depth is also found to be important.
Finally we build 4 combined models across stocks for both execution probabilities as well as times. These models perform well on out of sample data, suggesting their predictive utility.
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Impact Of Option Introduction On Different Characteristics Of Underlying Stocks In NSE, IndiaJoshi, Manisha 12 1900 (has links)
Financial Derivatives are one of the most popular and emerging innovations in the field of financial engineering. Since their inception, there has been a phenomenal growth in the volumes of derivatives traded all over the world. Financial markets are known to be extremely volatile and derivatives provide a way of eliminating or reducing the risks involved in these markets. Since these instruments derive their value from some underlying asset, trading in these instruments is bound to affect the underlying assets. Thus it becomes important to examine what these effects are and whether they have been favourable or detrimental to the underlying stock markets specially when there has been an explosive growth of these financial derivatives all over the world. This issue
gains more importance in the case of emerging markets like India as they try to be more competitive and efficient as the developed Western markets. This thesis mainly deals with looking at this impact on the Indian stock markets. The Indian markets still being very new in this area, not many studies have been reported here related to this issue. The main focus of this thesis is to provide some more evidence on the impact of one kind of derivative instrument, namely options on different characteristics of underlying stocks in the Indian stock market.
The thesis has the following objectives:
• To examine the impact of option introduction on the price of underlying
stocks in National Stock Exchange (NSE).
• To examine the impact of option introduction on the volatility of underlying stocks in NSE
• To examine the impact of option introduction on liquidity of underlying
stocks in NSE
NSE introduced derivatives beginning with index futures on June 12, 2000, followed by index options on June 4, 2001, options on individual securities on July 2, 2001 and finally futures on individual securities on November 9, 2001. Due to the temporal proximity of the introduction of index options and individual options, there exists a possibility of an interaction of these two effects. This problem is solved by a judiciously chosen sampling design. In particular, three groups of stocks are considered. The first group consists of stocks on which options were first introduced on 2nd July 2001 and thus would exhibit a combined effect of the two events if any. The second group consists of stocks on which options were introduced much later and therefore would show effects of
individual option introduction if any. The third group comprises of nonoptioned stocks whose returns are considered around the date of index option introduction and thus would show effects of index option alone if any. To
separate the two effects an ANOVA/ Logistic Regression model is used. An objective selection of the event and estimation windows is done using a Bayesian Change Point Analysis.
The first part of the thesis looks at the effect of option introduction on the price of
underlying stocks. A standard event study methodology as has been used in the
literature is employed for this purpose. The study does not find any significant effect of option introduction on the prices.
The second part of the thesis deals with the effect on volatility. Volatility is
measured as the risk of a stock and as is done in the literature, three kinds of risk
are looked at: total risk, systematic risk and the unsystematic risk. In case of the
total risk, an F-test and an Ansari Bradley test is used to check for changes in the
variance and scale parameters of market-adjusted continuously compounded returns of the stocks before and after option introduction. The results of these tests are recorded as a categorical variable taking on the value 0 for no change and 1 for a change and a Binomial Logistic Regression is used to separate the effects of the two events. Furthermore, after recording the results of the above mentioned tests as a categorical variable with three categories (0, 1, -1), a
Multinomial Logistic Regression is also used in order to estimate the direction of the change (increase, decrease or no change). The ratios of after to before total risks are also analyzed using an ANOVA model. The systematic risk is measured using three kinds of betas – OLS betas, Scholes-Williams betas and Fowler-Rorke betas. The differences in the before and after betas of every stock are modelled using an ANOVA model in order to separate the two effects as well as the interaction effect. The unsystematic risk is estimated by the conditional variances and the unconditional variances of ARMA and ARMA-GARCH models fitted to market model excess returns. The ANOVA model is used here as well. In
addition to this, the before and after ARCH and GARCH coefficients of GARCH (1, 1) models fitted to the excess returns are also compared using the ANOVA model.
The results indicate that individual options are leading to a decline in total risk
however index options are causing an increase in total risk. The interaction effect is significant in this case thereby causing an increase in total risk in the Group I stocks. The OLS betas indicate that individual option introduction seems to have
increased the systematic risk. The Scholes-Williams betas indicate that index option introduction seems to have increased the systematic risk. The Fowler Rorke betas on the other hand, do not show any significant impact of individual option or index option introduction. For all the three betas index options introduction seems to have no effect on the systematic risk. Though the
interaction effect seems to be significant in all the three cases, it however does not significantly affect the systematic risk in Group I stocks. As regards the unsystematic risk, both the conditional and unconditional variances of ARMA models show a significant reduction for individual option introduction but index options do not have any significant impact on either one of these measures. In case of unconditional variances of ARMA-GARCH models, none of the effects
come out as significant. While comparing the news and persistence coefficients of
GARCH (1, 1) models, the news coefficients indicate that the due to index option
introduction, stocks are becoming more efficient in terms of absorbing the news
more rapidly. No significant effect of either event is found on the persistence
coefficients.
The last part of the thesis deals with the liquidity issue. Liquidity has been measured using two measures – relative volume (based on daily data) and implicit bid-ask spread given by Roll (1984) (calculated from intra-day data). In case of the liquidity measures, the Logistic Regression models are used i.e. a categorical variable with two or three categories obtained from the results of a Wilcoxon Rank Sum test for comparing the median volume and spread before
and after option introduction, is used. It is found that for the relative volume,
individual option introduction has led to a favourable effect in terms of increasing the volume post introduction of options; however index options seem to have had a negative effect. As for the spread, index options seem to have had a stabilizing influence on the underlying stocks than the individual options.
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