The global energy system is dominated by the use of fossil fuels. This system suffers from several problems, such as different environmental issues, while the long-term energy security is sometimes questioned. As an alternative to this situation, a transition to a global energy system based on renewable energy technologies, to a large extent solar and wind energy, is commonly proposed. Constructing the technology needed for such a transition requires resources and how fast this could happen is somewhat disputed. This thesis explores methods to assess the potential constraints for realizing such a transition by looking at potential technology growth rates and outlooks of production of the required natural resources. The thesis is based on three papers presenting case studies that look at growth rates of wind energy as well as future production outlooks of lithium and phosphate rock. Using different types of growth patterns reaching proposed installed capacities of wind power, annual commissioning requirements are investigated, taking account for the limited life expectancy oftechnology. Potential outlooks of mineral production are explored using resource constrained curve-fitting models on global lithium production. A more disaggregated model looking at individual countries are used on phosphate rock production to investigate new perspectives on production outlooks. It is concluded that the growth rates of individual energy technologies affect the resource requirements and prospective constraints on energy transitions. Resource constrained modelling of resource production can provide spans of potential outlooks for future production of resources required for anenergy transition. A higher disaggregation of the modelling can provide new perspectives of potential constraints on future production. These aspects should be further investigated when proposing alternative future energy systems.

As the international community takes increasing action to mitigate the effects of climate change, increased focus has been placed on the topic of energy transitions in developing countries. This paper uses the multi-level perspective (MLP) framework to analyze the ongoing energy transition in Mongolia, specifically the integration of large-scale wind and solar energy systems. Attention is paid to the presence of transnational linkages and intermediaries that have substantially contributed to Mongolia’s success in diffusing renewable energy technology, as well as challenges Mongolia has faced as a result of limited technological and institutional capacity. The paper concludes that Mongolia’s transition shares many similarities with other developing countries’ transitions, in that transition dynamics are highly influenced by exogenous actors and interests, rather than traditional factors as described by the MLP.

abstract: This dissertation explores the functional purpose of imagination as it is enacted in the context of shaping large transitions in sociotechnical systems. Large sociotechnical systems undergoing profound transitions embody instantiations where societies experience profound changes in the ‘rules of the game’ that underpin the conduct of daily life. The forms of imagination that guide these transformations, known in the political theory literature as ‘imaginaries,’ play a profound yet undertheorized role in transition of sociotechnical systems from one configuration to another. Expanding on this relationship, the study draws on three case studies of energy systems change in the United States during 20th and 21st century. Each case study explores unique element of how actors at a variety of levels – transnational governance, regional electrification, and in-home energy marketing – define and the possibilities for ideal human and technological action and interaction through a transition. These actors defining the parameters of a new form of systems operation and configuration are as equally focused on defining how these new configurations shape fundamental ideas that underpin American democratic sensibility. Moreover, in the process of articulating a new configuration of energy and society – be that in terms of managing global resource flows or the automation of energy use in a residential home – questions of what makes an ideal member of a society are interlinked with new contractual relationships between energy producers and energy users. Transitions research could and should pay greater attention to the normative commitments emergent systems actors – as it is in these commitments we can chart pathways to redefine the parameters that underpin emergent transitions. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Human and Social Dimensions of Science and Technology 2018

Like many other European cities, Malmö has set ambitious goals to become Sweden’s first carbon-neutral city by 2030. This objective is aligned with several public entities such as the Öresund Region, the Swedish Energy Agency, the European Union, and the UN within the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Urban Development. However, statistics show that this goal is very difficult, if not, impossible to reach, as the city has achieved 32% of renewable energy by the end of 2020. Furthermore, the region of Skåne is currently facing problems regarding electricity shortage due to the lack of production in the region and network capacity in the national grid. This study identifies at least two major causes to explain why the energy transition in the city of Malmö does not see the light at the end of the tunnel. First, there is a dominant political narrative in Sweden that favors centralized and intensive capital solutions that may result in the lock-in of alternatives that aim for a more decentralized energy system. Second, the high trust in technological innovation to solve societal challenges has reduced Social Innovation (SI) as a tool that only complements technological advances (e.g., offshore wind turbines and smart grids). Therefore, this mainstream eliminates the capacity of Social Innovation in the Energy Sector (SIE) as an opportunity to contest dominant structures and make transformative changes at the institutional level within the energy system. Within this context, regime actors such as Large-scale Energy Companies (LECs) have an important role in impeding but possibly also enabling SIE and facilitating the sustainable and just energy transition in Sweden. Drawing on the Transformative Social Innovation-framework, this thesis analyzes three SIE-initiatives developed by E.ON Group in collaboration with other actors. An embedded-case study approach and mixed methods (mapping, document review, semi-structured interviews, and thematic and discourse analysis) were the basis of this research to understand the transformative potential of each initiative. The results of the study conclude that LECs participate actively in the development of SIE. It shows that projects like SWITCH/CoordiNET change internal social relations but not institutional relations, while others such as Sege Park and Smart Cities Accelerator+ have big potential of transformative change and may replace and alter dominant informal and formal institutions. It also demonstrates how E.ON and the City of Malmö are challenging the dominant political narrative in Sweden. Building on the latter empirical findings, this thesis suggests recommendations for city actors (public sector, businesses, organizations, and individuals) to create alliances and reach the goal of producing 100% renewable energy while aiming for a more sustainable and just energy system in the city of Malmö.

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As the consequences of climate change is increasing the need of replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy globally is becoming more urgent. A central question that has been questioned in the literature is that if the world is on track on a transition away from fossil fuels or if we are only adding renewable energy to the energy mix in a world that continues to grow and consume more energy. Because of the above mentioned, this thesis aims to investigate if the increased generation of electricity from renewable sources are displacing the generation of electricity from fossil fuels. This is tested using a time and country fixed effects model including 176 countries with yearly observations from 2000 to 2020. The result from the regression showed that one additional kWh electricity generated from renewable sources has not statistically managed to displace one kWh of electricity generated from fossil fuels, net of controls. Previous studies using a similar methodology but on older time frames has shown result were almost no displacement has occurred when renewable sources have been added. The result from this thesis should not be interpreted as that the transition is not going to happen since it might be that the global initiatives taken around the globe to make the transition happenis not get visible in the numbers used in thesis, but the result does on the other hand indicate that several economic, political, and social factors has made the transition to renewables difficult, and that we should not assume that renewable energy will replace fossil fuels for electricity generation without policy measures that supports the transition.

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abstract: The Energiewende aims to drastically reduce Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions, without relying on nuclear power, while maintaining a secure and affordable energy supply. Since 2000 the country’s renewable-energy share has increased exponentially, accounting in 2017 for over a third of Germany's gross electricity consumption. This unprecedented achievement is the result of policies, tools, and institutional arrangements intended to steer society to a low-carbon economy. Despite its resounding success in renewable-energy deployment, the Energiewende is not on track to meet its decarbonization goals. Energiewende rules and regulations have generated numerous undesired consequences, and have cost much more than anticipated, a burden borne primarily by energy consumers. Why has the Energiewende not only made energy more expensive, but also failed to bring Germany closer to its decarbonization goals? I analyzed the Energiewende as a complex socio-technical system, examining its legal framework and analyzing the consequences of successive regulations; identifying major political and energy players and the factors that motivated them to pursue socio-technical change; and documenting the political trends and events in which the Energiewende is rooted and which continue to shape it. I analyzed the dynamics and the loopholes that created barriers to transition, pushed the utility sector to the brink of dissolution, and led to such undesirable outcomes as negative wholesale prices and forced exports of electricity to Germany’s European neighbors. Thirty high-level energy experts and stakeholders were interviewed to find out how the best-informed members of German society perceive the Energiewende. Surprisingly, although they were highly critical of the way the transition has unfolded, most were convinced that the transition would eventually succeed. But their definitions of success did not always depend on achieving carbon-mitigation targets. Indeed, Germany jeopardizes the achievement of these targets by changing too many policy and institutional variables at too fast a pace. Good intentions and commitment are not enough to create economies based on intermittent energy sources: they will also require intensive grid expansion and breakthroughs in storage technology. The Energiewende demonstrates starkly that collective action driven by robust political consensus is not sufficient for steering complex socio-technical systems in desired directions. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Sustainability 2018

abstract: The Internet and climate change are two forces that are poised to both cause and enable changes in how we provide our energy infrastructure. The Internet has catalyzed enormous changes across many sectors by shifting the feedback and organizational structure of systems towards more decentralized users. Today’s energy systems require colossal shifts toward a more sustainable future. However, energy systems face enormous socio-technical lock-in and, thus far, have been largely unaffected by these destabilizing forces. More distributed information offers not only the ability to craft new markets, but to accelerate learning processes that respond to emerging user or prosumer centered design needs. This may include values and needs such as local reliability, transparency and accountability, integration into the built environment, and reduction of local pollution challenges. The same institutions (rules, norms and strategies) that dominated with the hierarchical infrastructure system of the twentieth century are unlikely to be good fit if a more distributed infrastructure increases in dominance. As information is produced at more distributed points, it is more difficult to coordinate and manage as an interconnected system. This research examines several aspects of these, historically dominant, infrastructure provisioning strategies to understand the implications of managing more distributed information. The first chapter experimentally examines information search and sharing strategies under different information protection rules. The second and third chapters focus on strategies to model and compare distributed energy production effects on shared electricity grid infrastructure. Finally, the fourth chapter dives into the literature of co-production, and explores connections between concepts in co-production and modularity (an engineering approach to information encapsulation) using the distributed energy resource regulations for San Diego, CA. Each of these sections highlights different aspects of how information rules offer a design space to enable a more adaptive, innovative and sustainable energy system that can more easily react to the shocks of the twenty-first century. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Sustainability 2018

Amidst the rising tides of inequality and climate change, movements are developing which aim to unify social justice and environmental agendas. Proponents of energy democracy recognize that renewable energy transitions have the potential to foster more equitable social relations. However, literature indicates that renewable energy can also worsen social relations, and may fail to hinder, or could actively contribute to, ecological degradation. Therefore, research is needed that examines how the contexts in which renewables are implemented lead to divergent socio-ecological outcomes. This project compares strategies of renewable energy implementation in Canada, as embedded within socio-environmental projects ranging from fossil capitalism to eco-socialism. The framing of renewable energy, climate change, and political-economic issues in the strategies of actors within these projects are analyzed. Canadian governments, fossil fuel and renewable energy corporations were found to undertake renewables implementation within a clean growth framework, which maintains capitalist hegemony while responding to pressure to take action on climate change. Renewables are also used by governments and fossil capital firms to justify the continued growth of fossil fuel industries. The renewables industry is more ambitious in its transition strategy but does not contest fossil fuel production and exports. Renewable energy co-operatives offer a form of energy transitioning that challenges the undemocratic nature of corporate power but appears limited in its ability to influence multi-scalar change. Meanwhile, Leap, the Pact for a Green New Deal, and Iron and Earth exhibit an emergent push for just, democratic, and sustainable alternatives to fossil capitalism and clean growth. Energy democracy is central to Leap’s strategy, which suggests paths toward addressing the limitations of renewable energy co-operatives while supporting other forms of democratic renewable energy systems. / Graduate