Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi / My doctoral dissertation studies the interaction between financial development, exchange rate regimes and productivity growth. The first chapter provides a microfounded, quantitative model that rationalizes recent empirical evidence by Aghion et al (2009), who find that fixed exchange rate regimes lead to higher long-run productivity growth in countries with low financial development, while the effect in financially developed countries is insignificant. The channel that explains this evidence in my model is the following: A fixed exchange rate regime leads to lower inflation when the money growth is otherwise high. In turn, lower inflation results in higher long-run productivity growth since financial intermediaries hold a fraction of deposits as reserves, whose return is lower than the market rate and, thus, is affected by inflation. The lower return paid on reserves drives a wedge between the return paid on deposits and the return paid on loans by reducing the former and increasing the latter. In turn, this reduces entry of new innovators in the economy and, consequently, productivity growth. I show that the negative effect of flexible exchange rate regimes on growth is larger for countries with lower levels of financial development because inflation and the fraction of deposits held as reserves are higher in these countries. In the second chapter, I perform panel-data analysis to find how much of the effect of exchange rate regimes on productivity growth, documented previously by Aghion et al. (2009), can be accounted for by the channel proposed in the first chapter of my dissertation. I use data for 83 countries over the period 1960-2000. The data comes from the Penn World Table, World Development Indicators, International Financial Statistics, and the Reinhart and Rogoff classification of exchange rate regimes. I use the GMM system estimator and regress productivity growth on financial development, a variable describing the exchange rate regime, growth controls, as well as bank reserve ratios. I find that when the interaction effect of inflation and financial development or the interaction of the reserve ratio and financial development are added to the regression used by Aghion et al. (2009), the exchange rate regime effect on productivity growth in less financially developed countries is no longer significant. This implies that the channel proposed in the first chapter of my dissertation can explain most of the initial empirical results. The third chapter explores the short-run effect of exchange rate regimes on the macroeconomic performance of a small open economy with endogenous productivity growth and underdeveloped financial markets when the home economy is subject to shocks. I use the model introduced in the first chapter, add nominal price rigidities, and calculate impulse responses, given a productivity shock and a shock to the foreign nominal interest rate. I also calculate second moments implied by the model and compare them to empirical second moments. The results show that after a positive exogenous productivity shock, productivity growth, output and consumption increase more under the flexible exchange rate regime. However, given an increase in the foreign nominal interest rate, productivity growth falls but the reduction in productivity growth is smaller under the fixed exchange rate regime. In addition, output and consumption fall after the shock, however, the reduction of consumption and output is higher under the fixed exchange rate regime. I also find that after both shocks analyzed here, welfare is higher under the fixed exchange rate regime. The model is also able to match some features of business cycles in developing countries. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2011. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

This thesis analyses the relationship between the increasingly important sovereign CDS spreads and exchange rates, from a macroeconomic perspective. It attempts to address an existing gap in the empirical literature, which to date has paid limited attention to the role of exchange rates in influencing sovereign CDS spreads, and vice versa. In exploring the relationship between sovereign CDS markets and foreign exchange markets, I find relatively strong evidence of a causal relationship between these two variables. In a longer-term cointegrating relationship, I find that sovereign CDS spreads have different impacts (positive or negative) on exchange rates depending on the structural characteristics of the domestic export sectors of the countries studied. Turning to the second moment of exchange rates and sovereign CDS spreads, I examine the relationship between the volatility of sovereign CDS spreads and the volatility of exchange rates for developed economies (proxied by an index containing 10 Eurozone countries) and emerging economies (proxied by Brazil and Russia). My findings point to different mechanisms of transmission between sovereign CDS markets and foreign exchange markets with regard to developed and emerging economies: for developed economies, exchange rates affect sovereign CDS spreads through the volatility, whilst in emerging economies the exchange rates affect sovereign CDS spreads at the price level. To further analyse the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads, I incorporate additional macroeconomic fundamentals in addition to exchange rates into a model to explain sovereign CDS spreads. The results show that sovereign CDS spreads are indeed driven by most macroeconomic fundamentals. However, these results do not hold during periods of economic turmoil, in which the rising risk aversion of investors becomes a principal influence behind the sovereign CDS spreads. As changes in exchange rates are able to capture changes to risk aversion through trading in foreign exchange markets, the exchange rate retains its explanatory power to sovereign CDS spreads in ‘normal’ as well as ‘crisis’ conditions. Overall, the study provides strong support for the claim that exchange rates are an important determinant of sovereign CDS spreads, in addition to the interest rate which is highlighted in the literature review. The exchange rate – as an important fundamental indicator – can reflect the general domestic economic status, the relative international competitiveness of countries, as well as capture changes in risk aversion among investors. Therefore, using exchange rates to explain sovereign CDS spreads can help to account for both domestic and international dimensions of the ‘health’ of an economy as well as changes in investors’ attitudes.

This thesis studies the factors driving the movement of Myanmar’s reference exchange rate against the dollar during its managed-float currency regime from 2012 to 2018. Time series and event study analysis are used to assess how reforms have affected the value of the Myanmar Kyat. The exchange rate policies and movements of nearby Asian currencies over the same sample period are also considered to determine whether the depreciation of the Myanmar Kyat parallels that of the others (Chinese Renminbi, Vietnamese Dong, Thai Baht, Cambodian Riel, and Singaporean dollar). The results show that the Myanmar Kyat is significantly influenced by US inflation and the Myanmar’s 2015 general elections, and that the Kyat is indirectly influenced by the Renminbi and the USD, through the currencies’ effects on the Dong. Comparing the M2/GDP and stock market capitalization to GDP ratios showed that Myanmar’s market lags behind its Asian counterparts. However, the government treasury bond market launched in September 2016 and the stock exchange launched in December 2015 offer hope for secondary trading and a deepening of the financial sector in the future.

Uppsatsens syfte är att analysera den nominella växelkursens påverkan på utrikeshandel och göra en jämförande studie mellan ett EU-land (Sverige) och ett EMU-land (Tyskland). Fokus för denna undersökning kommer att ligga på vad som skedde med utrikeshandeln under de två ekonomiska kriserna på 2000-talet, men även ge en generell bild för utrikeshandeln under hela perioden 2000-2010. Uppsatsen avser att besvara om det finns några skillnader i hur ländernas handel påverkades under kriserna med avseende på växelkursen, samt om handelssammansättningen av handelspartners förändrats. Detta kommer undersökas för att se hur Sveriges utrikeshandel påverkats av att stå utanför EMU. Resultaten visar på att den nominella växelkursen inte haft stor betydelse för utrikeshandeln under den undersökta tidsperioden. Både export och import har ökat under perioden, men det går inte att finna någon direkt koppling till växelkursförändringar. Under de båda kriserna har både import och export tenderat att förändras mer än växelkursen. Vidare har Sveriges handelspartners inte ändrats nämnvärt. Därför kan vi anta att Sveriges utrikeshandel inte påverkats av att stå utanför EMU med avseende på den nominella växelkursen.

Abstract The Purchasing power parity ¡]PPP¡^ theory was originally developed by a Swidish economist, Gustav Cassel, in 1916. It is a method using the long-run equilibrium exchange rate of two currencies to measure the currencies' purchasing power. It is based on the law of one price, the idea that, in an efficient market, identical goods must have only one price internationally. This parity is a central building block of many theoretical and empirical models of exchange rate determination, since most are relied on PPP as the basis for long-run real exchange rates. While the literature on the PPP hypothesis is voluminous today and still growing, the doctrine has not found well. The validity of PPP can be examined by testing the stationary of real exchange rates. Most of the empirical evidences relied mainly on using linear structure to explore PPP in the past. By using traditional unit root test, the PPP is hard to hold in the long run. There is a growing consensus that previous empirical research reflects the poor power of the tests rather necessarily against PPP. Therefore, the use of more powerful tests is needed. Recently, an alternative point of view based on the presence of market frictions that impede commodity trade has arisen. The adjustment of real exchange rates is perhaps described more appropriately as a nonlinear process once market frictions are taken into account. There are several reasons that theoretically explain why the adjustment process of deviations from PPP is nonlinear, such as transactions and transportation costs and tariffs and non-tariff barriers to international trade. Therefore, the analysis of real exchange rate should be conducted under the nonlinear structure. This study uses the STAR methodology proposed by Granger & Teräsvirta (1993) and Teräsvirta (1994) to examine whether the deviation of PPP is a nonlinear dynamic adjustment among the following countries: Australia, Denmark, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. If the linear hypothesis was rejected, then to distinguish if the model of STAR is LSTAR or ESTAR. This study finds that the deviations from equilibrium exchange rates show strong evidence of nonlinear properties. The deviations of exchange rates for all countries can be explained by the LSTAR model. In conclusion, this study finds the real exchange rates exhibit the property of nonlinear mean reversion for most countries.

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In this study, determinants and the evolution of the exchange rate passthrough to domestic inflation in the Turkish economy is analyzed. The analyses cover the 1987-2003 period. In the analyses, single equation &ldquo / Error Correction Models&rdquo / are used to estimate the exchange rate pass-through. Estimation results suggest that alike other emerging countries, the degree of exchange rate passthrough to domestic prices is high and the pass-through is completed in a very short time span. Estimations results also indicates that the main factors to account for high pass-through are the past currency crises and the high degree of openness of the economy. These factors create the ground for the indexation behavior of agents. Although, above-mentioned factors are the main determinants of the degree of exchange rate pass-through, the persistency and the volatility of exchange rates can significantly affect the short run dynamics of the pass-through. The results imply that even if the pass-through slows down due to the changing pattern of exchange rates, to achieve the low and stable inflation in the long run, fundamental factors that exacerbate the link between exchange rates and prices should change.

The exchange rate is one of the most challenging macroeconomic policy issues in any economy. There is a general agreement that policymakers should aim at avoiding real exchange rate misalignment. To avoid real exchange rate misalignment, it is important to identify the equilibrium real exchange rate. To identify the equilibrium real exchange rate it is necessary to understand the drivers of the real exchange rate, and investigate the extent to which the real exchange rate is driven by various determinants. Despite the fact that the real exchange rate is a very important component of macroeconomic policy, empirical investigation of the real exchange rate in Namibia is very limited. It is against this background that the objective of this study is to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate and the resulting real exchange rate misalignment for Namibia during period 1970 to 2004. It also investigates the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance and competitiveness. The equilibrium real exchange rate and resulting real exchange rate misalignments were estimated using theoretical models and the application of time series econometric techniques. The fundamental approach model and the model of real exchange rate and real prices of commodities exports were estimated using the Johansen full information maximum likelihood technique. According to the estimation based on the fundamental model the real exchange rate is determined by terms of trade, openness of the economy and ratio of investment to GDP. Equilibrium real exchange rate was estimated and the results showed that the real exchange rate was misaligned. Since Namibia is a commodity exporting country the relationship between the real exchange rate and prices of commodities was also investigated. The analysis revealed that there is a long-run co-movement between real exchange rate and prices of commodity exports. Increase in prices of commodities causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. There was some overvaluation and undervaluation. The VAR methodology was implemented to test the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance and competitiveness. The analysis revealed that real exchange rate misalignment hampers economic growth and competitiveness. It is important for policymakers to monitor the real exchange rate and ensure that it does not diverge significantly from its equilibrium value. Reduction in real exchange rate misalignment is also important to ensure that the country achieves a high level of export and remains competitive in order to have a sustainable level of growth. As a commodity exporting country, Namibia can have either a flexible nominal exchange rate regime which facilitates slow change of relative inflation rate, or price and wage flexibility to facilitate the maintenance of the nominal exchange rate peg. Alternatively, Namibia is a good candidate for pegging the currency to the prices of export commodities because its export is concentrated on few products. This option implies that Namibia leaves the CMA. However, it is important to note that Namibia is a proponent of regional integration and a move away from the CMA will not be consistent with the plans of SADC to establish a monetary union by 2016. / Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Economics / PhD / unrestricted

Thesis advisor: Jaromir Nosal / This dissertation comprises three self-contained essays that investigate the determination and transmission of exchange rate fluctuations, as well as the impact of import quality on consumers’ gains from globalization. In the first chapter, “Decomposing the (In)Sensitivity of CPI to Exchange Rate", I examine the role of domestic frictions – distribution costs, variable markups and nominal rigidities – in explaining the low sensitivity of domestic prices to exchange rate fluctuations. I begin by modeling what the sensitivity of CPI to exchange rates is expected to be, given the presence of insensitivity in border prices and domestic frictions. Distribution costs, such as transportation and wholesaling costs, introduce a wedge between the retail price, on one side, and the border price of imports and the domestic producers’ costs, on the other. Similarly, domestic firms do not fully adjust their price to changes in their own cost because of changes in the desired markup or because prices are sticky. These frictions introduce wedges between the change in domestic producers’ costs and border prices following an exchange rate shock, and the response of domestic consumption retail prices. Using firm and transaction data from Chile, I document that domestic frictions account for 60% of the overall insensitivity of domestic CPI. Moreover, the presence of domestic frictions also impacts the sensitivity of domestic CPI: contrary to previous literature, most of the sensitivity arises from the direct consumption of imported final goods, rather than through the costs associated to imported inputs in the production of domestic goods. This is because domestic frictions dampen the response of domestically produced goods more significantly. In addition, I quantify a rich heterogeneity in the sensitivity across products, which stems from the interaction of domestic frictions and import exposure. These heterogeneities are relevant for the overall (in)sensitivity, as sectors with higher import exposure face also larger frictions. Overall, my results showcase the importance of domestic frictions and their heterogeneity in studying the response of domestic prices to exchange rate fluctuations, with implications for monetary policy in open economy and redistribution dynamics. In the second chapter, “Strategic Behavior and Exchange Rate Dynamics", joint work with L. Pollio, I examine the impact of heterogeneous investors with different degrees of price impact on exchange rate behavior. The huge trading volume in the currency markets, about $6 trillions per day, is highly concentrated among the market-making desks of few large financial institutions. However, models of exchange rate determination assume that investors take the equilibrium price as given, ignoring the presence of a few large investors who recognize the price impact of their decisions and can exert pressure on market prices. We incorporate heterogeneity in price impact, following of Kyle (1989), into a two-country, dynamic monetary model of exchange rate determination. Our theory of exchange rate determination with heterogeneity in price impact reveals that market structure is a key determinant of exchange rate dynamics. Strategic investors recognize their price impact, which leads them to trade less on any information and reduce the information loading factor of the exchange rate (price informativeness). The presence of strategic investors explains the weak explanatory power of macroeconomics variables in predicting exchange rates (exchange rate disconnect puzzle) and the excess volatility of the exchange rate relative to fundamentals (excess volatility puzzle). We also provide empirical evidence that supports our theoretical predictions by using trading volume concentration data from the NY Fed FXC Reports for 18 currencies from 2005 to 2019. We extend our theoretical framework to include another dimension of heterogeneity among investors, information heterogeneity, that provides similar qualitative predictions in terms of exchange rate dynamics. We demonstrate that both dimensions of heterogeneity are quantitatively relevant in explaining the disconnect of exchange rates and their excess volatility. In the third chapter, “The Quality of US Imports and the Consumption Gains from Globalization", joint work with D. Lashkari, I examine the role of quality improvement in shaping the gains from trade. The existing empirical literature indicates that globalization has offered consumers around the world access to a wider variety of products at cheaper prices. However, since the available data typically lacks detailed information on product characteristics, we may underestimate the value of imports for consumers if the quality of goods within each product rises over time. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel methodology to estimate demand elasticity and infer unobserved quality using only data on prices and market shares. Our approach builds on the standard framework that models product quality as residual demand. This framework requires estimating price elasticities and the standard approach assumes CES demand and imposes uncorrelated supply and demand shocks. However, the latter assumption is untenable if we associate demand shocks with quality and generates an upward bias in the estimates of price elasticities. Our strategy circumvents this problem by restricting the dynamics of product quality to a Markov process. We apply our new methodology to the US customs data (1989-2006), and find that quality improvements contribute the most to the gains from trade in the US. Quality improvements have lowered the price of US imports relative to the CPI by 17%, with Chinese products contributing the most. In comparison, import prices have fallen by around 11% relative to the CPI and increasing variety has contributed an additional 4%. These findings demonstrate that accounting for quality is essential to better understand and measure the effects of international trade. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2023. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.