Robert Parker is an esteemed, somewhat controversial wine-critic. Since 1978, Parker has assigned every wine he tastes a score between 50 and 100. He uses this method to communicate to both consumers and producers his opinion of the quality, taste, and aging potential of the wine. Between the years 2005 and 2015, Robert Parker graded 115 wines from the French region of Provence. The goal of this thesis is to determine whether and to what extent Robert Parker’s grades affect the price of wine. Through descriptive statistics and regression analysis of Robert Parker’s grade and year of production on the average price, I assess the effects of one expert’s opinion on the price of Provençal wine. My results show that, while there is a statistically significant relationship between Robert Parker’s grade and the price of wine, the relationship between the two variables has not varied considerably over the past ten years. In addition, my results show an indifference on the part of Provençal wine-producers in regards to pricing based on the grades their wines receive from the wine-critic. This led me to the conclusion that the relationship between price of wine and grade is not as strong as hypothesized. This is an interesting finding given the prevalence of consumer reports and expert-opinion based journals for consumable goods.

<p>Abstract:</p><p>It is important to determine the optimal living accommodations depending on which stage of life a person is in. The authors of this paper present, with the help of previous studies, five different stages in life. They have also been in contact with eleven experts within the following areas: the house or apartments design such as architecture, the human beings´ private sphere, the area surrounding the living accommodations, environmental issues and energy consumption and the municipal standards and law regarding production and the building and restoration of old and new real-estate.</p><p>Purpose:</p><p>This paper aims to construct a handbook that covers the optimal living accommodations depending on in which lifecycle the focus is on .The handbook which has been developed, aims to help the people who operate on this market to coordinate their different areas of knowledge to provide the optimal living accommodations for each lifecycle.</p><p>Method:</p><p>A feasibility study has been carried out with the purpose of finding experts within each area mentioned above and also to have them be part of the semi-structured interviews that have been carried out.</p><p>Conclusions:</p><p>There are a lot of different factors which affects the way people wish to live. The conclusions made in this paper presents a handbook with recommendations on how cityplanners, politicians and contractors can offer the optimal living accommodations depending on different factors that influence the way we live, together with different stages of life.</p>

Abstract: It is important to determine the optimal living accommodations depending on which stage of life a person is in. The authors of this paper present, with the help of previous studies, five different stages in life. They have also been in contact with eleven experts within the following areas: the house or apartments design such as architecture, the human beings´ private sphere, the area surrounding the living accommodations, environmental issues and energy consumption and the municipal standards and law regarding production and the building and restoration of old and new real-estate. Purpose: This paper aims to construct a handbook that covers the optimal living accommodations depending on in which lifecycle the focus is on .The handbook which has been developed, aims to help the people who operate on this market to coordinate their different areas of knowledge to provide the optimal living accommodations for each lifecycle. Method: A feasibility study has been carried out with the purpose of finding experts within each area mentioned above and also to have them be part of the semi-structured interviews that have been carried out. Conclusions: There are a lot of different factors which affects the way people wish to live. The conclusions made in this paper presents a handbook with recommendations on how cityplanners, politicians and contractors can offer the optimal living accommodations depending on different factors that influence the way we live, together with different stages of life.

Les maladies rares sont celles qui touchent un nombre restreint de personnes. Par conséquent, des problèmes spécifiques sont dus par cette rareté.Pour cette raison nous avons systématiquement recherché dans la littérature les publications concernant les caractéristiques des différentes méthodes mathématiques qui ont été utilisées pour l'étude des maladies rares. L'objectif est d'identifier des approches novatrices pour la recherche qui ont été, ou peuvent être, utilisées afin de surmonter les difficultés méthodologiques inhérentes à l'étude des maladies rares.Les méthodes bayésiennes sont recommandées par plusieurs auteurs et dans le cas de ces méthodes il faut introduire une loi informative a priori sur l'effet inconnu du traitement.La détermination de la loi a priori dans le modèle bayésien est difficile. Nous avons travaillé sur les méthodes qui permettent de déterminer de la loi a priori en incluant la possibilité de considérer des informations provenant des études historiques et/ou des données provenant d'autres études "voisines".D'une part, on décrit un modèle bayésien qui a pour but de vérifier l'hypothèse de non-infériorité de l'essai qui repose sur l'hypothèse que le méthotrexate est plus efficace que le corticostéroïde seul.D'autre part, notre travail de thèse se repose sur la méthode epsilon- contamination, qui se base sur le principe de contaminer une loi a priori pas entièrement satisfaisante par une série de lois provenant des informations d'autres études ayant même pathologie de maladie, même traitement ou même population.Enfin, toutes les informations a priori peuvent être résumées par la distribution a priori déterminer à partir des opinions d'experts, leur avis sont recueillis lors d'une réunion où ils ont répondu à un questionnaire qui montre leurs a priori sur les paramètres du modèle bayésien. / In recent years, scientists have difficulties to study rare diseases by conventional methods, because the sample size needed in such studies to meet a conventional frequentist power is not adapted to the number of available patients. After systemically searching in literature and characterizing different methods used in the contest of rare diseases, we remarked that most of the proposed methods are deterministic and are globally unsatisfactory because it is difficult to correct the insufficient statistical power.More attention has been placed on Bayesian models which through a prior distribution combined with a current study enable to draw decisionsfrom a posterior distribution. Determination of the prior distribution in a Bayesian model is challenging, we will describe the process of determining the prior including the possibility of considering information from some historical controlled trials and/or data coming from other studies sufficiently close to the subject of interest.First, we describe a Bayesian model that aims to test the hypothesis of the non-inferiority trial based on the hypothesis that methotrexate is more effective than corticosteroids alone.On the other hand, our work rests on the use of the epsilon-contamination method, which is based on contaminating an a priori not entirely satisfactory by a series of distributions drawn from information on other studies sharing close conditions,treatments or even populations. Contamination is a way to include the proximity of information provided bythese studies.

This thesis is about development of Czech media market after 1989 in the context of political economy of the media. It tries to find practical impacts of the pressures of commercial sphere on media content in Czech serious daily press, on the basis of theories applied in the research part of the work. These pressures include media owners and media market ownership concentration, advertisers, expert opinions makers and think-tanks and public relations. A quantitative content analysis and journalists interviews are used for this purpose. The results confirm an existence of commercial influences in Czech dailies, especially from advertisers. A significant dominance of opinions supporting right-wing (conservative) thoughts has been also confirmed. Brought knowledge and research findings both leave and open substantial space for a future research of this topic.

La France s’inscrit dans une vision idéalisée de la criminalistique dont la force probante apporterait les réponses incontestables au procès pénal. Cette croyance est historique et s’appuie sur les travaux des pionniers français qui ont ouvert la voie à ce que d’aucuns ont appelé, par abus de langage, l’apport de la preuve scientifique. Mais le paysage de la criminalistique n’est pas aussi simple que les acteurs au procès pénal le supposent. Le système criminalistique existant, la formation des intervenants, la connaissance de la valeur informationnelle de la trace avec sa vie juridique comme sa traçabilité scientifique, parfois soumise à un cadre normatif extérieur au droit, sont autant de domaines rarement abordés. À travers les différentes matières composant la criminalistique, en percevoir le contenu et leur puissance scientifique, mais également leurs limites, apportent un éclairage particulier de ce qu’est l’interprétation des résultats analytiques en France, et ce qu’elle devrait être quel que soit le moment judiciaire qu’exige le déroulement de la procédure pénale. Cette présentation met en exergue l’existence de la réalisation d’actes scientifiques souvent négligés et qui vient relativiser la notion d’examens scientifiques et d’expertises pourtant sacralisés par le droit et la jurisprudence. Cette étude de la criminalistique dans le procès pénal, met en évidence la perception qu’en ont les acteurs, la compréhension réciproque difficile avec les experts, mais également celles d’organismes plus institutionnels, montrant que les intérêts sont parfois divergents entre une vision comptable de la justice et celle de la recherche de la vérité, pourtant inscrite dans les textes. Une présentation de la perception comme de la mise en œuvre de la criminalistique en droit comparé à travers la procédure et la jurisprudence accusatoires donne un éclairage sur des débats juridiques qui frappent à la porte de notre système inquisitoire par l’introduction toujours plus engagée du contradictoire. Mieux comprendre les sciences introduites au procès pénal et les rendre accessibles devrait donner aux acteurs une capacité de discernement et d’interprétation plus pertinente, notamment pour les juges qui doivent à partir de toutes ces connaissances, indices et réponses scientifiques en construire la preuve pénale. / France believes in an idealized vision of forensic science, the probative force of which would provide incontestable answers to the criminal trial. This belief is historical and is based on the work of the French pioneers who paved the way for what some have called, by abuse of language, the contribution of scientific proof. But the forensic landscape is not as simple as the actors in the criminal trial assume. Existing forensic systems, training of stakeholders, knowledge of the informational value of the trace with its legal life as well as its scientific traceability, sometimes subject to a normative framework outside the law are all rarely dealt with. Through the various subjects of forensic science, by perceiving their content and their scientific power, but also by their limitations, they shed particular light on the interpretation of analytical results in France and what it should be the judicial time required for the conduct of criminal proceedings. This presentation highlights the existence of the realization of scientific acts often neglected and that relativizes the notion of scientific examinations and expert appraisals yet sacred by law and jurisprudence. This study of criminalistic in the criminal trial highlights the perception of the actors, the difficult mutual understanding with the experts, but also those of more institutional administrations, showing that the interests are sometimes divergent between an accounting vision Justice and the search for truth, which is nevertheless inscribed in the texts. A presentation of the perception as well as the implementation of forensic science in comparative law through accusatory procedure and jurisprudence sheds light on legal debates that strike the door of our inquisitorial system by the increasingly engaged introduction of contradictory. A better understanding of the sciences introduced into the criminal process and making them accessible should give the actors a more relevant capacity for discernment and interpretation, in particular for judges who must draw up the criminal proof from all these scientific knowledge, answers and evidences.

The topic of this thesis is carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS), which is a technology that is currently being promoted by industries, scientists and governments, among others, in order to mitigate climate change despite a continued use of fossil fuels. Because of the complex nature of CCS and the risks it entails, it is controversial. The aim of this thesis is to analyse how the technology may be further developed in a responsible manner. In the first part of the thesis different methods for capturing CO2 from industrial processes as well as power plants are analysed. The aim is to identify early opportunities for CO2 capture, which is considered important because of the urgency of the climate change problem. Three potential early opportunities are studied: i) capturing CO2 from calcining processes such as cement industries by using the oxyfuel process, ii) capturing CO2 from pressurised flue gas, and iii) capturing CO2 from hybrid combined cycles. Each opportunity has properties that may make them competitive in comparison to the more common alternatives if CCS is realised. However, there are also drawbacks. For example, while capturing CO2 from pressurised flue gas enables the use of more compact capture plant designs as well as less expensive and less toxic absorbents, the concept is neither suitable for retrofitting nor has it been promoted by the large and influential corporations. The second part of the thesis has a broader scope than the first and is multidisciplinary in its nature with inspiration from the research field of Science and Technology Studies (STS). The approach is to critically analyse stakeholder percep-tions regarding CCS, with a specific focus on the CCS experts. The thesis sheds new light on the complexity and scientific uncertainty of CCS as well as on the optimism among many of its proponents. Because of the uncertain development when it comes to climate change, fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, the conclusion is that CCS has to be further developed and demonstrated. A responsible strategy for a future development of CCS would benefit from: i) a search for win-win strategies, ii) increasing use of appropriate analytical tools such as life-cycle analysis, iii) a consideration of fossil fuel scarcity and increasing price volatility, iv) funding of unbiased research and v) increasing simultaneous investments in long-term solutions such as renewable energy alternatives and efficiency improvements. / QC 20100727

L’adaptation côtière est un impératif pour faire face à l’élévation du niveau marin,conséquence directe du réchauffement climatique. Cependant, la mise en place d’actions et de stratégies est souvent entravée par la présence de diverses et importantes incertitudes lors de l’estimation des aléas et risques futurs. Ces incertitudes peuvent être dues à une connaissance limitée (de l’élévation du niveau marin futur par exemple) ou à la variabilité naturelle de certaines variables (les conditions de mer extrêmes). La prise en compte des incertitudes dans la chaîne d’évaluation des risques est essentielle pour une adaptation efficace.L’objectif de ce travail est de proposer une méthodologie pour la quantification des incertitudes basée sur les fonctions de croyance – un formalisme de l’incertain plus flexible que les probabilités. Les fonctions de croyance nous permettent de décrire plus fidèlement l’information incomplète fournie par des experts (quantiles,intervalles, etc.), et de combiner différentes sources d’information. L’information statistique peut quand à elle être décrite par de fonctions des croyance définies à partir de la fonction de vraisemblance. Pour la propagation d’incertitudes, nous exploitons l’équivalence mathématique entre fonctions de croyance et intervalles aléatoires, et procédons par échantillonnage Monte Carlo. La méthodologie est appliquée dans l’estimation des projections de la remontée du niveau marin global à la fin du siècle issues de la modélisation physique, d’élicitation d’avis d’experts, et de modèle semi-empirique. Ensuite, dans une étude de cas, nous évaluons l’impact du changement climatique sur les conditions de mers extrêmes et évaluons le renforcement nécessaire d’une structure afin de maintenir son niveau de performance fonctionnelle. / Coastal adaptation is an imperative to deal with the elevation of the global sealevel caused by the ongoing global warming. However, when defining adaptationactions, coastal engineers encounter substantial uncertainties in the assessment of future hazards and risks. These uncertainties may stem from a limited knowledge (e.g., about the magnitude of the future sea-level rise) or from the natural variabilityof some quantities (e.g., extreme sea conditions). A proper consideration of these uncertainties is of principal concern for efficient design and adaptation.The objective of this work is to propose a methodology for uncertainty analysis based on the theory of belief functions – an uncertainty formalism that offers greater features to handle both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties than probabilities.In particular, it allows to represent more faithfully experts’ incomplete knowledge (quantiles, intervals, etc.) and to combine multi-sources evidence taking into account their dependences and reliabilities. Statistical evidence can be modeledby like lihood-based belief functions, which are simply the translation of some inference principles in evidential terms. By exploiting the mathematical equivalence between belief functions and random intervals, uncertainty can be propagated through models by Monte Carlo simulations. We use this method to quantify uncertainty in future projections of the elevation of the global sea level by 2100 and evaluate its impact on some coastal risk indicators used in coastal design. Sea-level rise projections are derived from physical modelling, expert elicitation, and historical sea-level measurements. Then, within a methodologically-oriented case study,we assess the impact of climate change on extreme sea conditions and evaluate there inforcement of a typical coastal defence asset so that its functional performance is maintained.