Thesis advisor: James E. Anderson / Thesis advisor: Rosen Valchev / The effect of uncertainty on firms' behavior and on the macroeconomy is generally negative in the literature. Extensive research has also demonstrated that financial frictions limit the extent of firms' activities and growth prospects. In the first two chapters of this dissertation, I study both empirically and theoretically how a specific type of uncertainty, exchange rate uncertainty, interacts with financial frictions to affect the behavior of exporting firms. In line with the existing literature, I find in the first chapter that exports of manufacturing sectors in which firms are more financially constrained decrease by more in times of high uncertainty. Having more tangible capital, which can potentially be used as collateral, makes the effect of uncertainty less negative, especially im sectors where firms are large. Relying more on external financing, on the other hand, makes the effect more negative and affects sectors with small firms more. Current theoretical models have little to say about the effect of uncertainty on heterogeneous firms. To address this issue, I introduce in the second chapter a model of financially-constrained heterogeneous exporting firms in which credit conditions depend on the degree of exchange rate uncertainty. Firms in different sectors face different types of financial constraints, and are therefore differently affected by uncertainty. I use the calibrated model to evaluate potential policies that could be implemented to alleviate the negative effect of exchange rate uncertainty on exports. The uncovered interest parity puzzle is the empirical finding that countries with higher risk-free interest rates tend to see their currencies appreciate in the short run. Typical two-country macroeconomic models instead predict that high interest-rate currencies depreciate, with arbitrage opportunities eliminating profitable carry trade strategies. The international finance literature responded to this puzzle by providing several alternative theoretical models able to explain the puzzle. In the third chapter of this dissertation, I study how the predictions of two of these alternative models - the habit model of Verdelhan (2010) and the distorted belief model of Gourinchas and Tornell (2004) - are affected when re-cast in a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. I investigate how the mechanisms rely on specific parameter values in order to find under which conditions, if any, they can explain the UIP puzzle. In addition, I obtain business cycle moments from model simulations and compare them to the moments obtained from a standard two-country DSGE model and from the data. My results show that for the first model, the habit model, the UIP results disappear under realistic calibrations. For the second model, the distorted beliefs model, UIP properties remain under some calibrations. In addition, business cycle predictions remain close to empirical evidence. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2019. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

我國為一海島型經濟國家，在實體資源缺乏的自然環境下，經濟成長有賴 於對外貿易的貢獻，在這資訊洪流泛濫的時代裡，外銷企業如何蒐尋資訊 、需要何種類型的資訊、資訊供應商及外貿輔導機構在企業蒐集資訊的過 程中各該扮演什麼樣的角色，是本研究的探討重點。本研究採個案研究法 ，研究範圍界定在企業高階主管（董事長、總經理等）對資訊需求的認知 ，共有五個個案，產業別橫跨紡織業、成衣製造業、資訊電子業與通訊電 子業。研究結論可分資訊的需求與供給兩方面來談。在資訊的需求面，研 究發現我國外銷企業對資訊的需求，受到企業本身策略形態、所屬產業、 外銷地區產業生命週期階段、資訊專屬性、資訊蒐集成本與決策者成熟度 的影響。在資訊的供給面，研究發現個別企業、資訊供應商與外貿輔導機 構對資訊蒐集工作的分工，可以資訊專屬性與蒐尋之成本兩大構面做為劃 分的依據；而對於外貿輔導機構，本研究亦建議其在資訊蒐集的功能，應 以產業為劃分單位，並以產業特性為選擇標準，且應配合政府產業升級政 策所蒐集之資訊要具有前瞻性，以及進行對企業的資訊需求教育，除讓企 業了解外貿輔導機構所提供之資訊服務外，亦擴大企業獲取資訊的管道， 增加決策的正確性與預測未來趨勢的能力。