This study analyzes the determination of the exchange rate system in a small economy when external real and monetary disturbances occur. Choice of exchange rate policy is investigated using a model assuming rational expectations and a loss function expressing the squared deviations of the small country output from desired output. The distinguishing feature of the analysis is the emphasis on real as well as monetary disturbances which originate abroad but are a source of domestic output variation. the link between foreign monetary and real disturbances and variance in output is traced using the thoretical model and the loss function assumed. The emphasis of the analysis is on a three country (one small and two large) trading situation, whereby the small country trades with two major large country trading partners. It is assumed throughout that there is perfect commodity arbitrage between two large countries. The small country imports an intermediate good from one of the large countries and exports a finished good. The small country doesnot import goods for consumption. there is perfect capital movement between two large countries, but capital is immobile between the small and these two large countries. The analysis indicates that occurrence of purely nominal shocks abroad are not transmitted to the small country under floating exchange rate system. The presence of real disturbances in large countries induce lower prices for the goods they produce, but the effect on the exchange rate is ambiguos. This study concludes that in general the adoption of a flexible exchange rate system by a small country is preferred and results in lower loss in most cases of external disturbance.

Increased economic growth and growing competition in the world market has led to an increased need for Supply Chain Management (SCM). SCM leads to a complex network between the parts in the entire flow chain and the complexity increases the vulnerability to external disturbances. At the end of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic start spreading, an external disturbance, had a major impact on society. Because of the preventive measures to prevent the spread of infection, many companies' supply chains are affected. Today, it is a major challenge for companies to manage and mitigate the risk on the company through well-functioning risk management, both to work proactively and reactively, as well as structural flexibility in the supply chain. This thesis examines how a Swedish medium-sized export company is affected by COVID-19 and how they work proactively and reactively in reducing negative consequences in the supply chain as a result of COVID-19. The study was conducted with qualitative interviews at the case company and the result was compared with a literature study of existing risk management theory in the event of disastrous events. A literature survey shows that there is a clear research gap, as there is limited knowledge about COVID-19 and its impact on corporate supply chains. Previous research on the subject is not comparable to COVID-19, as all disease outbreaks are unique. The result shows that the company has comprehensive risk management through an appointed director of the group management who proactively works with risks and has prepared a crisis management plan that is used during the outbreak of COVID-19. The crisis management plan, on the other hand, does not address pandemics, but the plan has been adapted to the current situation. However, supply chain risks should be seen not only as a threat to the business, but also as opportunities. Both positive and negative consequences for the case company have been identified. The results, however, contain limitations as the pandemic during the study's time span is still going and can create further direct and indirect consequences, and a future study can follow up on the outcome of the pandemic on the case company and suggest improvements based on the company's risk management. / En ökad ekonomisk tillväxt och växande konkurrens på världsmarknaden har lett till ett ökat behov av supply chain management (SCM). SCM leder till ett komplext nätverk mellan aktörerna i hela flödeskedjan och komplexiteten ökar sårbarheten för externa störningar. I slutet av 2019 uppstod pandemin COVID-19, en extern störning, som gav stora konsekvenser på samhället. På grund av de förebyggande åtgärderna för att förhindra smittspridningen påverkas många företags supply chain. Idag är det en stor utmaning för företag att hantera och mildra risken på företaget genom en väl fungerande riskhantering, såväl att arbeta proaktivt och reaktivt, samt en strukturell flexibilitet i supply chain.   Den här studien undersöker hur ett svenskt medelstort exportföretag påverkas av COVID-19 och hur de arbetar proaktivt och reaktivt med att reducera negativa konsekvenser i supply chain till följd av COVID-19. Undersökningen genomfördes med kvalitativa intervjuer på fallföretaget och resultatet jämfördes med en litteraturstudie av befintlig teori om riskhantering vid katastrofala händelser. En litteraturundersökning visar att det finns ett tydligt forskningsgap, då det råder begränsad kännedom om COVID-19 och dess påverkan på företagets supply chain. Tidigare forskning inom ämnet är inte jämförbart med COVID-19, eftersom alla sjukdomsutbrott är unika. Resultatet visar att företaget har en övergripande riskhantering via en tillsatt direktör i koncernledningen som proaktivt arbetar med risker och har upprättat en krishanteringsplan som används under utbrottet av COVID-19. Krishanteringsplanen tar däremot inte upp pandemier, men planen har kunnat anpassats till rådande situation. Risker i supply chain ska dock endast inte ses som ett hot mot verksamheten, utan det handlar även om att se möjligheterna. Både positiva och negativa konsekvenser på fallföretaget har identifierats. Resultaten innehåller dock begränsningar då pandemin under studiens tidsspann är under spridning och kan skapa ytterligare direkta och indirekta konsekvenser, och en framtida studie kan följa upp resultatet av pandemin på fallföretaget och föreslå förbättringar utifrån företagets riskhantering.

Cette thèse traite de l'identification des paramètres du point de vue de l'optimisation et du contrôle de suivi distribué des systèmes multi-agents d'ordre fractionnaire (FOMASs) en tenant compte des retards, des perturbations externes, de la non-linéarité inhérente, des incertitudes des paramètres et de l'hétérogénéité dans le cadre d'une topologie de communication fixe non dirigée / dirigée. Plusieurs contrôleurs efficaces sont conçus pour réaliser avec succès le contrôle de suivi distribué des FOMASs dans différentes conditions. Plusieurs types d'algorithmes d'optimisation de l'intelligence artificielle et leurs versions modifiées sont appliquées pour identifier les paramètres inconnus des FOMASs avec une grande précision, une convergence rapide et une grande robustesse. Il est à noter que cette thèse fournit un lien prometteur entre la technique d'intelligence artificielle et le contrôle distribué. / This thesis deals with the parameter identification from the viewpoint of optimization and distributed tracking control of fractional-order multi-agent systems (FOMASs) considering time delays, external disturbances, inherent nonlinearity, parameters uncertainties, and heterogeneity under fixed undirected/directed communication topology. Several efficient controllers are designed to achieve the distributed tracking control of FOMASs successfully under different conditions. Several kinds of artificial intelligence optimization algorithms andtheir modified versions are applied to identify the unknown parameters of the FOMASs with high accuracy, fast convergence and strong robustness. It should be noted that this thesis provides a promising link between the artificial intelligence technique and distributed control.