Spelling suggestions: "subject:"extratropical cyclones"" "subject:"extratropicale cyclones""
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Global changes in synoptic activity with increasing atmospheric CO2Lim, Eun-Pa Unknown Date (has links) (PDF)
Over the last century, increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases and global temperature in the atmosphere has drawn our attention to changes in extra tropical cyclones which influence daily weather patterns in the mid and high latitudes and redistribute energy, momentum and moisture across the globe. This study is aimed at examining changes in extra tropical cyclones: observed over the past two decades using the NCEP-DOE reanalysis II data (NCEP2); and simulated in the CSIRO Mark2 atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (GCM) with increasingCO2. Furthermore, we attempt to explore the physical mechanisms driving such changes by modelling idealised experiments with the Melbourne University atmospheric GCM. The Melbourne University cyclone finding and tracking scheme is utilised to detect and track cyclones observed in NCEP2 and simulated in the two models. / The study demonstrates significant changes in Southern Hemisphere (SH) cyclone features from 1979-2000. SH cyclones have decreased in their number at the surface but increased at the 500 hPa level. On the other hand, SH cyclone physical features such as intensity, radius and depth have significantly increased over the two decades at the mean sea level and 500 hPa level. Moreover, cyclones became vertically better organized in both hemispheres, and particularly in the SH. The changes in the characteristics of Northern Hemisphere (NH) cyclones were statistically less significant than their SH counterparts in the period of 1979-2000. / Results from the coupled climate model simulation with enhanced CO2 suggest general reductions in cyclone frequency and intensity throughout the troposphere between the surface and500 hPa level but increases in cyclone radius and organization of vertical structure. These changes are persistent throughout the entire transient run with increasing CO2 and during a 100 year stabilisation period. It is found in the CSIRO simulation with enhanced CO2 that the geographical changes of cyclone features are similar in both hemispheres and between the surface and 500 hPa level. Furthermore, we conclude that some observed changes in extra tropical cyclone features seem to follow the patterns of simulated changes with increasing CO2 from 1xCO2 to 2xCO2 particularly in the SH. / Modelling latitudinal temperature gradient at different levels of the troposphere has revealed that the warming over the tropics at the upper troposphere causes cyclone frequency and depth to increase in the high latitudes but decrease in the mid latitudes. By contrast, the warming over the high latitudes at the lower troposphere results in decreases in the cyclone features in the high latitudes but increases in them in the mid latitudes. Therefore, the warming over the tropics seems to play an important role in the changes in SH summer cyclone frequency and depth appearing in the simulation with enhanced CO2, whereas the warming over both tropics and high latitudes affects the changes in SH winter cyclone features. In the NH, the change in latitudinal temperature gradient seems less influential in the changes of cyclone features than it does in the SH.
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Global changes in synoptic activity with increasing atmospheric CO2Lim, Eun-Pa Unknown Date (has links) (PDF)
Over the last century, increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases and global temperature in the atmosphere has drawn our attention to changes in extra tropical cyclones which influence daily weather patterns in the mid and high latitudes and redistribute energy, momentum and moisture across the globe. This study is aimed at examining changes in extra tropical cyclones: observed over the past two decades using the NCEP-DOE reanalysis II data (NCEP2); and simulated in the CSIRO Mark2 atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (GCM) with increasingCO2. Furthermore, we attempt to explore the physical mechanisms driving such changes by modelling idealised experiments with the Melbourne University atmospheric GCM. The Melbourne University cyclone finding and tracking scheme is utilised to detect and track cyclones observed in NCEP2 and simulated in the two models. / The study demonstrates significant changes in Southern Hemisphere (SH) cyclone features from 1979-2000. SH cyclones have decreased in their number at the surface but increased at the 500 hPa level. On the other hand, SH cyclone physical features such as intensity, radius and depth have significantly increased over the two decades at the mean sea level and 500 hPa level. Moreover, cyclones became vertically better organized in both hemispheres, and particularly in the SH. The changes in the characteristics of Northern Hemisphere (NH) cyclones were statistically less significant than their SH counterparts in the period of 1979-2000. / Results from the coupled climate model simulation with enhanced CO2 suggest general reductions in cyclone frequency and intensity throughout the troposphere between the surface and500 hPa level but increases in cyclone radius and organization of vertical structure. These changes are persistent throughout the entire transient run with increasing CO2 and during a 100 year stabilisation period. It is found in the CSIRO simulation with enhanced CO2 that the geographical changes of cyclone features are similar in both hemispheres and between the surface and 500 hPa level. Furthermore, we conclude that some observed changes in extra tropical cyclone features seem to follow the patterns of simulated changes with increasing CO2 from 1xCO2 to 2xCO2 particularly in the SH. / Modelling latitudinal temperature gradient at different levels of the troposphere has revealed that the warming over the tropics at the upper troposphere causes cyclone frequency and depth to increase in the high latitudes but decrease in the mid latitudes. By contrast, the warming over the high latitudes at the lower troposphere results in decreases in the cyclone features in the high latitudes but increases in them in the mid latitudes. Therefore, the warming over the tropics seems to play an important role in the changes in SH summer cyclone frequency and depth appearing in the simulation with enhanced CO2, whereas the warming over both tropics and high latitudes affects the changes in SH winter cyclone features. In the NH, the change in latitudinal temperature gradient seems less influential in the changes of cyclone features than it does in the SH.
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Developing novel storminess metrics and evaluating seasonal predictability of storminess indicators in the north Pacific and Alaskan regionsShippee, Norman 02 September 2016 (has links)
Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are a common feature of mid- and high-latitudes which, on a large scale, are a primary mechanism by which heat and moisture are transported from equator to pole. ETCs also exert a major impact at smaller scales. Communities along the western coast of Alaska face many types of impacts generated by the winds associated with ETCs, including storm surges, sea water intrusion into fresh water stores, and coastal erosion. Such “strong wind events”, which can occur independent of an ETC, can also generate hazardous sea states and associated impacts on shipping. With no roads, coastal Alaska relies heavily on marine and air transportation. Hazards posed to marine and air travel are often related to two main types of weather: wind and fog. Consultations with stakeholders in the marine transportation community have indicated more precisely specific aspects of poor weather, such as high wind events, that are problematic, including the idea that the periods between strong wind events, defined as lull periods, represent an important metric when planning travel between points of safe harbour.
Three separate studies of storminess metrics in the North Pacific and Alaskan regions are presented. The first study presents both a comparison of two storm identification and tracking algorithms and an evaluation of the general characteristics of extratropical cyclones for the North Pacific as portrayed in two reanalyses. The second study applies a modified wind event identification algorithm to reanalysis data to evaluate the spatial climatological patterns of wind events in the circum-Arctic. The third study tests the statistical relationships and predictability of two measures of storm activity - cyclone track density (TDEN) and wind event frequency - in the North Pacific using teleconnection indices exhibiting local influence. The first study showed that the general patterns and trends of cyclone characteristics are similar between the two methods, though with increased values of cyclogenesis density, cyclolysis density, and track density when using the relative vorticity based method. A comparison between storm tracks for NCEP1 and the 56-member ensemble of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis v2 (20CR) shows distinct differences between the 20CR and NCEP1 mean climatology for main storminess indicators. The second study evaluated the spatial and temporal characteristics of wind events and introduced a novel indicator that characterizes periods of favorable weather between strong wind events that last 48-hours or longer, termed lull events. Lull periods were found to be an important consideration for northern marine operations – both economic and subsistence. Additionally, combinations of lull and wind event indicators, termed lull/storm winds (LSW), were analyzed and showed that preferred areas of wind events and lull events are not always spatially coherent. The third study tested the statistical relationships and predictability of two measures of storm activity - cyclone track density (TDEN) and wind event frequency - in the North Pacific using teleconnection indices with local influence for the winter period of 1950 - 2012. Two statistical modeling techniques are applied to evaluate linear and non-linear methods of prediction for the region. For both measures of storm activity, the North Pacific index, Niño 3.4 index, and the AO index were found to be the best predictors. Using a 23-year hindcast period (1980 – 2012), the region of highest wind event anomaly prediction skill is located in the western Bering Sea, with hindcast correlation values as high as +0.5 and root mean squared skill scores (RMSESS) 25% higher than climatology. Highest TDEN predictive skill from the 23-year hindcast is found in the southeast region of the North Pacific, near the California coastline, with correlation and RMSESS as high as +0.7 and 25 - 30%, respectively. / Graduate
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Avaliação do desempenho do modelo BRAMS para a Península Antártica / Performance evaluation of BRAMS model for the Antarctic PeninsulaMartins, Tatiane Reis 30 July 2012 (has links)
A Península Antártica (PA) é uma das regiões no planeta que apresentam as mais adversas condições do tempo devido à constante passagem de ciclones. O conhecimento das condições meteorológicas futuras é fundamental para o desenvolvimento de atividades operacionais e de pesquisa na região. Nos últimos anos a implantação e melhoramento dos modelos numéricos, que tem como foco a previsão do tempo na Antártica, têm sido alvo de diversos estudos pela comunidade acadêmica. O objetivo principal deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho do modelo BRAMS na simulação de parâmetros meteorológicos durante a passagem de ciclones na Península Antártica. Diversas simulações, que envolveram diferentes configurações estruturais e físicas do modelo foram realizadas para dois casos de passagem de ciclones na PA, um que ocorreu em fevereiro e outro em julho de 2009. A avaliação do desempenho do modelo BRAMS foi feita através de duas análises, uma qualitativa, analisado o comportamento de cada variável simulada pelo modelo em comparação com os dados de estações meteorológicas, e a outra uma análise de sensibilidade baseada em índices estatísticos. O desempenho do modelo BRAMS se mostrou altamente dependente das condições iniciais adotadas. A pressão ao nível médio do mar foi a variável melhor representada, mas o modelo não conseguiu prever adequadamente os aumentos de pressão que ocorrem após a passagem do ciclone pela PA, o que ficou evidente no evento de julho. Por outro lado, o BRAMS se mostrou ineficiente em representar as variações de temperatura que ocorrem durante o período de simulação, principalmente no evento de fevereiro. As temperaturas simuladas pelo BRAMS foram mais elevadas que aquelas observadas nas estações meteorológicas para os dois casos (fevereiro e julho). Além disso, o modelo não conseguiu prever as quedas abruptas de temperatura, observadas durante o avanço do ciclone no mês de julho, devido em grande parte à ausência de gelo marinho nas regiões onde, de fato, as observações mostravam que ele estava presente. O modelo BRAMS, de forma geral, não obteve bom desempenho na simulação do vento, principalmente em relação às variações de direção. O modelo capta as principais variações da componente zonal do vento no caso de verão, porém em algumas estações, quando o escoamento tornou-se meridional, o BRAMS simulou um vento de leste, demonstrando uma forte dependência das condições iniciais. Já no caso de inverno, após o ciclone cruzar a PA, os experimentos simulam um vento de oeste que não condiz com o observado nas estações meteorológicas. Já em se tratando do vento meridional notou-se que o BRAMS intensifica os fluxos de sul, principalmente após a passagem do ciclone pela PA. / The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the regions of the earth, which have the most adverse weather conditions due to the constant movement of cyclones. The knowledge of future meteorological conditions is essential for the operational activities and research developments on the region. In the last years, implantation and improvement of the numeric models, which focus is the weather forecasting on Antarctic, has been the subject of several studies of academic community. The main objective of this study is evaluating the model BRAMS performance, on the simulation of meteorological parameters in events of cyclones on Antarctic Peninsula. Several simulations with different structural and physics configurations on the model were performed in two events of cyclones on AP. One of them occurred in February e the other one in July of 2009. The evaluation of BRAMS model was performed by means of two analyses. The first analysis was qualitative, which analyzed the behavior of each variable simulated by the model in compared to weather stations data. The second analysis was related with the sensibility based on statistical indexes. The BRAMS model performance seems to be dependent on the initial conditions. The pressure at mean sea level was a well represented variable, however the model did not forecasted properly the pressure increase, which occurred after the cyclone event on the AP and it was more evident on event of July. Otherwise, the BRAMS seems to be inefficient for variations on temperatures during the simulation period, especially on February event. Temperatures simulated by BRAMS were higher than that observed on weather station for both cases (February and July). Furthermore, the model did not predicted the abrupt decrease in temperature, observed during the cyclone in July, due to the absence of ice sea in regions where, in fact, the observations showed that he was present. In general, the BRAMS model did not achieved good performance simulating winds, especially on changes of direction. The model captures the major variations of zonal wind during summer, however, in some stations, when the flow direction was changed to meridional, the BRAMS simulated an easterly wind, showing a strong dependence on initial conditions. During winter events, after the cyclone cross the AP, the experiments simulated a west wind, which is not consistent with that observed at meteorological stations. In the case of meridional wind, BRAMS intensified the south flows, especially after the cyclone on AP.
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Avaliação do desempenho do modelo BRAMS para a Península Antártica / Performance evaluation of BRAMS model for the Antarctic PeninsulaTatiane Reis Martins 30 July 2012 (has links)
A Península Antártica (PA) é uma das regiões no planeta que apresentam as mais adversas condições do tempo devido à constante passagem de ciclones. O conhecimento das condições meteorológicas futuras é fundamental para o desenvolvimento de atividades operacionais e de pesquisa na região. Nos últimos anos a implantação e melhoramento dos modelos numéricos, que tem como foco a previsão do tempo na Antártica, têm sido alvo de diversos estudos pela comunidade acadêmica. O objetivo principal deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho do modelo BRAMS na simulação de parâmetros meteorológicos durante a passagem de ciclones na Península Antártica. Diversas simulações, que envolveram diferentes configurações estruturais e físicas do modelo foram realizadas para dois casos de passagem de ciclones na PA, um que ocorreu em fevereiro e outro em julho de 2009. A avaliação do desempenho do modelo BRAMS foi feita através de duas análises, uma qualitativa, analisado o comportamento de cada variável simulada pelo modelo em comparação com os dados de estações meteorológicas, e a outra uma análise de sensibilidade baseada em índices estatísticos. O desempenho do modelo BRAMS se mostrou altamente dependente das condições iniciais adotadas. A pressão ao nível médio do mar foi a variável melhor representada, mas o modelo não conseguiu prever adequadamente os aumentos de pressão que ocorrem após a passagem do ciclone pela PA, o que ficou evidente no evento de julho. Por outro lado, o BRAMS se mostrou ineficiente em representar as variações de temperatura que ocorrem durante o período de simulação, principalmente no evento de fevereiro. As temperaturas simuladas pelo BRAMS foram mais elevadas que aquelas observadas nas estações meteorológicas para os dois casos (fevereiro e julho). Além disso, o modelo não conseguiu prever as quedas abruptas de temperatura, observadas durante o avanço do ciclone no mês de julho, devido em grande parte à ausência de gelo marinho nas regiões onde, de fato, as observações mostravam que ele estava presente. O modelo BRAMS, de forma geral, não obteve bom desempenho na simulação do vento, principalmente em relação às variações de direção. O modelo capta as principais variações da componente zonal do vento no caso de verão, porém em algumas estações, quando o escoamento tornou-se meridional, o BRAMS simulou um vento de leste, demonstrando uma forte dependência das condições iniciais. Já no caso de inverno, após o ciclone cruzar a PA, os experimentos simulam um vento de oeste que não condiz com o observado nas estações meteorológicas. Já em se tratando do vento meridional notou-se que o BRAMS intensifica os fluxos de sul, principalmente após a passagem do ciclone pela PA. / The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the regions of the earth, which have the most adverse weather conditions due to the constant movement of cyclones. The knowledge of future meteorological conditions is essential for the operational activities and research developments on the region. In the last years, implantation and improvement of the numeric models, which focus is the weather forecasting on Antarctic, has been the subject of several studies of academic community. The main objective of this study is evaluating the model BRAMS performance, on the simulation of meteorological parameters in events of cyclones on Antarctic Peninsula. Several simulations with different structural and physics configurations on the model were performed in two events of cyclones on AP. One of them occurred in February e the other one in July of 2009. The evaluation of BRAMS model was performed by means of two analyses. The first analysis was qualitative, which analyzed the behavior of each variable simulated by the model in compared to weather stations data. The second analysis was related with the sensibility based on statistical indexes. The BRAMS model performance seems to be dependent on the initial conditions. The pressure at mean sea level was a well represented variable, however the model did not forecasted properly the pressure increase, which occurred after the cyclone event on the AP and it was more evident on event of July. Otherwise, the BRAMS seems to be inefficient for variations on temperatures during the simulation period, especially on February event. Temperatures simulated by BRAMS were higher than that observed on weather station for both cases (February and July). Furthermore, the model did not predicted the abrupt decrease in temperature, observed during the cyclone in July, due to the absence of ice sea in regions where, in fact, the observations showed that he was present. In general, the BRAMS model did not achieved good performance simulating winds, especially on changes of direction. The model captures the major variations of zonal wind during summer, however, in some stations, when the flow direction was changed to meridional, the BRAMS simulated an easterly wind, showing a strong dependence on initial conditions. During winter events, after the cyclone cross the AP, the experiments simulated a west wind, which is not consistent with that observed at meteorological stations. In the case of meridional wind, BRAMS intensified the south flows, especially after the cyclone on AP.
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Seasonal predictability of North American coastal extratropical storm activity during the cold monthsPingree-Shippee, Katherine 01 May 2018 (has links)
Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are major features of the weather in the mid- and high-latitudes and are often associated with hazardous conditions such as heavy precipitation, high winds, blizzard conditions, and flooding. Additionally, severe coastal damage and major local impacts, including inundation and erosion, can result from high waves and storm surge due to cyclone interaction with the ocean. Consequently, ETCs can have serious detrimental socio-economic impacts. The west and east coasts of North America are strongly influenced by ETC storm activity. These coastal regions are also host to many land-based, coastal, and maritime socio-economic sectors, all of which can experience strong adverse impacts from extratropical storm activity. Society would therefore benefit if variations in ETC storm activity could be predicted skilfully for the upcoming season. Skilful prediction would enable affected sectors to better anticipate, prepare for, manage, and respond to variations in storm activity and the associated risks.
The overall objective of this dissertation is to determine the seasonal predictability of North American coastal extratropical storm activity during the cold months (3-month rolling seasons – OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM – during which storm activity is most frequent and intense) using Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS). This dissertation describes research focused on three themes: 1.) reanalysis representation of North American coastal storm activity, 2.) potential predictability of storm activity and climate signal-storm activity relationships for the North American coastal regions, and 3.) seasonal prediction of storm activity in CanSIPS.
Research Theme 1 evaluates six global reanalysis datasets to determine which best reproduces observed storm activity in the North American coastal regions, annually and seasonally, during the 1979-2010 time period using single-station surface pressure-based proxies; ERA-Interim is found to perform best overall.
Research Theme 2, using ERA-Interim, investigates the potential predictability of extratropical storm activity (represented by mean sea level pressure [MSLP], absolute pressure tendency, and 10-m wind speed) during the 1979-2015 time period using analysis of variance. The detected potential predictability provides observation-based evidence showing that it may be possible to predict storm activity on the seasonal timescale. Additionally, using composite analysis, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation are identified as possible sources of predictability in the North American coastal regions. Research Theme 2 provides a basis upon which seasonal forecasting of extratropical storm activity can be developed.
Research Theme 3 investigates the seasonal prediction of North American coastal storm activity using the CanSIPS multi-model ensemble mean hindcasts (1981-2010). Quantitative deterministic, categorical deterministic, and categorical probabilistic forecasts are constructed using the three equiprobable category framework (below-, near-, and above-normal conditions) and the parametric Gaussian method for determining probabilities. These forecasts are then evaluated against ERA-Interim using the correlation skill score, percent correct score, and Brier skill score to determine forecast skill. Baseline forecast skill is found for the seasonal forecasts of all three storm activity proxies, with MSLP forecasts found to be most skilful and 10-m wind speed forecasts the least skilful. Skilful seasonal forecasting of North American coastal extratropical storm activity is, therefore, possible in CanSIPS. / Graduate
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Dynamics and organisation of precipitation bands in the midlatitudesNorris, Jesse Michael January 2014 (has links)
The thesis is presented in alternative format, meaning that the results of the thesis take the form of three journal articles, each telling a distinct story within the subject matter, but collectively highlighting the sensitivity of bands to frictional and diabatic processes. Paper 1 is an idealised-modelling study with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in which moist baroclinic waves are simulated from an initial zonally uniform mid-latitude jet on an f-plane at 20-km grid spacing, and the sensitivity of the resulting precipitation bands is explored. Paper 2 employs further WRF idealised-baroclinic-wave simulations and takes a simulation from Paper 1, after the cold front has formed, as the initial condition. A nested domain at 4-km grid spacing is inserted when this simulation is re-initialised to invesigate the sensitivity of finer-scale precipitation cores along the surface cold front. In both Papers 1 and 2, friction and latent-heat release enhance multiple banding at the two distinct horizontal scales, while surface fluxes hinder multiple banding. Paper 3 studies post-frontal snowbands over the English Channel and Irish Sea during extreme cold-air outbreaks in the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11, via a climatology of precipitation-radar, sounding, and SST data, and real-data WRF sensitivity simulations of one such band over the English Channel. The observational and modelling results show that strong winds and large differential heat fluxes between land and sea were necessary to generate banded precipitation. Coastal orography and the land-sea frictional contrast aided the morphology of bands, but banded precipitation did still form in the absence of these influences in the sensitivity simulations. These three studies and the thesis as a whole highlight the role of frictional and diabatic processes in modifying various types of precipitation bands within baroclinic waves, and in generating bands that would otherwise not exist.
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Strong winds in extratropical cyclonesSlater, Tim Paul January 2015 (has links)
This thesis was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and is presented in an alternative thesis format. The thesis consists of three separate journal articles which form a coherent research project. Paper 1 investigates the development of strong winds in a dry, idealised extratropical cyclone using the horizontal momentum equation. In particular, the southwest wind maximum that develops was found to contain air parcels from three airstreams. The development of the horizontal along-flow forces around the cyclone and along trajectories entering the southwest wind maximum were analysed. An attempt to extend this methodology to a moist, idealised extratropical cyclone was made. However, the effect of adding moisture to the initial condition was found to be negligible. The reasons for this are explored in Paper 2, which documents this finding: that the effect of moisture on the development of an idealised, baroclinic wave is sensitive to the choice of initial condition. Paper 3 applies the horizontal momentum equation diagnostics to an intense, marine extratropical cyclone that brought strong winds to Ireland and the United Kingdom on 12 February 2014. The development of strong winds in Cyclone Tini was investigated by turning off latent heat release and surface fluxes. In the absence of latent heat release a weaker wind maximum developed. However, the simulation without surface fluxes had a very similar vertical structure of the horizontal wind to the full-physics simulation, but a weaker surface wind maximum. The reason for this weaker wind maximum was analysed using the quasigeostrophic omega equation. This analysis demonstrated a maximum in forcing for descent southwest of the low both in the full-physics simulation and in the simulation without surface fluxes, however strong winds were prevented from reaching the surface in the simulation without surface fluxes because of a more stable boundary layer around the bent-back front.
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Wintertime compound extremes in Europe and North America : from dynamics to predictabilityLeeding, Richard January 2023 (has links)
This thesis examines the co-occurrence of wintertime low temperature extremes (cold spells) over North America and wet or windy extremes over Europe. Prolonged (≅ 5 days) North American cold spells can be associated with both upstream and downstream anomalous large-scale atmospheric flows, the latter modulating extreme weather occurrences over Europe. The approximate co-occurrence of European wet or windy extremes with North American cold spells is temporally and spatially dependent on the location of cold spells. We identify three broad regional clusters of cold spells: Central Canada: cold spells are predominantly preceded by Iberian precipitation extremes. Eastern United States: occurrences of both wind and precipitation extremes in Iberia before and after the cold spell. East Canada: cold spells are predominantly followed by wind extremes over the British Isles and Northern Europe. We show that cold spells over these three regions are associated with distinct storm track and jet stream anomalies over the North Atlantic. Iberia experiences a higher number of extratropical cyclones during Central Canada cold spells due to an equatorward displacement of the jet. However, the propagation of extratropical cyclones over Europe is limited due to a Scandinavian block-type configuration over Northern Europe. Eastern United States cold spells show a similar configuration to Central Canada. However, this configuration does not show the Scandinavian block-type feature, resulting in a higher number of extratropical cyclones affecting Iberia and Southern Europe. Eastern Canada cold spells are associated with an extended and accelerated jet over Northern Europe. As a result, the UK, France and Northern Europe experience more intense extratropical cyclones on average, with the accelerated jet resulting in stronger extratropical cyclones throughout the North Atlantic in general. These results evidence the existence of a systematic statistical and dynamical connection between North American cold spells and European wet or windy extremes.
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<i>Analyzing the Climatology of Tornadoes </i><i>Relative to Extratropical Cyclones</i>Lauren Ann Kiefer (19192885) 22 July 2024 (has links)
<p dir="ltr">Tornadoes have caused billions of dollars in damage and are one of the leading causes of
weather-related deaths in the United States each year. Recent studies have suggested spatial
shifts in tornado activity, though the reason is unclear. Extratropical cyclones (ETCs), which
are strongly associated with the jet stream, are known to produce an environment favorable
for tornadoes in their warm sector. However, little recent research has been done on the
spatiotemporal relationship between tornadoes and ETCs, so there is a poor understanding
of whether or not the changes in tornado activity are affected by ETC patterns. ERA5
reanalysis, ETC tracking, and historical tornado data from 1980-2022 are used to analyze
the climatology of tornadoes relative to ETCs. We found that 73% of F/EF1+ tornadoes
occurred within 2000km of an ETC and are likely associated with the ETC. Most of those
tornadoes occurred near the median position around 465km away from and to the southeast of
the ETC center. Of those tornadoes, 68% occurred in large outbreaks of 6 or more tornadoes,
where most tornadoes formed closer to and to the southeast of an ETC track as compared
to small outbreak and isolated tornadoes. The spatial and relative distributions were similar
across all intensity levels, though stronger tornadoes tended to have more tornadoes directly
to the southeast of an ETC. Seasonal variances in tornadoes strongly corresponded with
seasonal changes in the jet stream. Summer tornadoes occurred in northern portions of
the US when the jet stream shifts poleward. The jet stream and ETCs are also weakest
in the summer, and the weakest association was found in summer tornadoes based on their
distribution relative to ETCs being more uniform towards the northeast and north-southeast
directions. Winter tornadoes occurred in more southern portions of the US when the jet
stream shifts equatorward, and they had a stronger association with most of the tornadoes
occurring to the southeast and closer to the ETC center, aligning with a strong ETC and jet
stream in the winter. Finally, tornadoes and ETCs had strong spatial covariance and showed
similar linear trends, including a similar rate of change in the eastward shift, providing
strong evidence that a shift in ETCs may be driving the shift in tornadoes. Furthering our
understanding of the relationship between tornadoes and ETCs will help to better predict
how tornadoes will change in the future based on changes in ETCs.</p>
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