No description available.

In 1988, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved an amendment that allowed the use of best-estimate methods. This led to an increased development, and application of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) safety analyses. However, a greater burden was placed on the licensee to justify all uncertainty estimates. A review of the current state of the BEPU methods indicate that there exists a number of significant criticisms, which limits the BEPU methods from reaching its full potential as a comprehensive licensing basis. The most significant criticism relates to the lack of a formal framework for distinguishing between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. This has led to a prevalent belief that such separation of uncertainties is for convenience, rather than one out of necessity. In this thesis, we address the above concerns by developing a statistically rigorous framework to characterize the different uncertainty types. This framework is grounded on the philosophical concepts of knowledge. Considering the Plato problem, we explore the use of probability as a means to gain knowledge, which allows us to relate the inherent distinctness in knowledge with the different uncertaintytypesforanycomplexphysicalsystem. Thisframeworkis demonstrated using nuclear analysis problems, and we show through the use of structural models that the separation of these uncertainties leads to more accurate tolerance limits relative to existing BEPU methods. In existing BEPU methods, where such a distinction is not applied, the total uncertainty is essentially treated as the aleatory uncertainty. Thus, the resulting estimated percentile is much larger than the actual (true) percentile of the system's response. Our results support the premise that the separation of these two distinct uncertainty types is necessary and leads to more accurate estimates of the reactor safety margins. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

In this study a software package for easily creating and embedding structural health monitoring (SHM) data interrogation processes in remote hardware is presented. The software described herein is comprised of two pieces. The first is a client to allow graphical construction of data interrogation processes. The second is node software for remote execution of processes on remote sensing and monitoring hardware. The client software is created around a catalog of data interrogation algorithms compiled over several years of research at Los Alamos National Laboratory known as DIAMOND II. This study also includes encapsulating the DIAMOND II algorithms into independent interchangeable functions and expanding the catalog with work in feature extraction and statistical discrimination. The client software also includes methods for interfacing with the node software over an Internet connection. Once connected, the client software can upload a developed process to the integrated sensing and processing node. The node software has the ability to run the processes and return results. This software creates a distributed SHM network without individual nodes relying on each other or a centralized server to monitor a structure. For the demonstration summarized in this study, the client software is used to create data collection, feature extraction, and statistical modeling processes. Data are collected from monitoring hardware connected to the client by a local area network. A structural health monitoring process is created on the client and uploaded to the node software residing on the monitoring hardware. The node software runs the process and monitors a test structure for induced damage, returning the current structural-state indicator in near real time to the client. Current integrated health monitoring systems rely on processes statically loaded onto the monitoring node before the node is deployed in the field. The primary new contribution of this study is a software paradigm that allows processes to be created remotely and uploaded to the node in a dynamic fashion over the life of the monitoring node without taking the node out of service. / Master of Science

Le sujet principal de cette thèse est la physique des verres de spin. Les verres de spin ont été introduits au début des années 70 pour décrire alliages magnétiques diluées. Ils ont désormais été considerés pour comprendre le comportement de liquides sousrefroidis. Parmis les systèmes qui peuvent être décrits par le langage des systèmes desordonnés, on trouve les problèmes d’optimisation combinatoire. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous considérons les modèles de verre de spin avec intéraction de Kac pour investiguer la phase de basse température des liquides sous-refroidis. Dans les chapitres qui suivent, nous montrons comment certaines caractéristiques des modèles de verre de spin peuvent être obtenues à partir de résultats de la théorie des matrices aléatoires en connection avec la statistique des valeurs extrêmes. Dans la dernière partie de la thèse, nous considérons la connexion entre la théorie desverres de spin et la science computationnelle, et présentons un nouvel algorithme qui peut être appliqué à certains problèmes dans le domaine des finances. / The main subject of this thesis is the physics of spin glasses. After their introduction in the 70s in order to describe dilute magnetic alloys, spin-glass models have been considered prototype models to understand the behavior of supercooled liquids. Among the systems that can be described and analyzed using the language of disordered systems, there are problems of combinatorial optimization. In the first part of the thesis, we consider spin-glass models with Kac interactions in order to investigate the supercooled phase of glass-forming liquids. Afterwards, we show how some features of spin-glass models can be described by ubiquitous results of Random Matrix Theory in connection with Extreme Value Statistics. Finally, from the interaction of spin-glass theory and computer science, we put forward a new algorithm of immediate application in Financial problems.

Community Climate Model 3 (CCM3) is run on an idealized all land zonally symmetric planet (Terra Blanda) with no seasonality, no snow and fixed soil moisture to obtain a stationary time series effectively much longer than conventional runs with geography and seasons. The surface temperature field generated is studied to analyze the spatial and temporal spectra, estimate the length scale and time scale of the model, and test the linearity of response to periodic and steady heat source forcings. The length scale of the model is found to be in the range of 1000-2000 km and the time scale is estimated to be 24 days for the global average surface temperature field. The response of the global average temperature is found to be fairly linear to periodic and the steady heat source forcings. The results obtained are compared with the results of a similar study that used CCM0. Fluctuation Dissipation theorem is also tested for applicability on CCM3. The response of the surface temperature field to a step function forcing is demonstrated to be very similar to the decay of naturally occurring anomalies, and the auto-correlation function. Return period of surface temperature anomalies is also studied. It is observed that the length of the data obtained from CCM3, though sufficient for analysis of first and second moments, is significantly deficient for return period analysis. An AR1 process is simulated to model the global averaged surface temperature of Terra Blanda 3 to assess the sampling error associated with short runs.

No description available.

Afin d'estimer les forces statiques équivalentes du vent, qui produisent les réponses quasi-statiques et dynamiques extrêmes dans les structures soumises au champ de pression instationnaire induit par les effets du vent, une nouvelle méthode probabiliste est proposée. Cette méthode permet de calculer les forces statiques équivalentes du vent pour les structures avec des écoulements aérodynamiques complexes telles que les toitures de stade, pour lesquelles le champ de pression n'est pas gaussien et pour lesquelles la réponse dynamique de la structure ne peut être simplement décrite en utilisant uniquement les premiers modes élastiques (mais nécessitent une bonne représentation des réponses quasi-statiques). Généralement, les mesures en soufflerie du champ de pression instationnaire appliqué à une structure dont la géométrie est complexe ne suffisent pas pour construire une estimation statistiquement convergée des valeurs extrêmes des réponses dynamiques de la structure. Une telle convergence est nécessaire pour l'estimation des forces statiques équivalentes afin de reproduire les réponses dynamiques extrêmes induites par les effets du vent en tenant compte de la non-gaussianité du champ de pression aléatoire instationnaire. Dans ce travail, (1) un générateur de réalisation du champ de pression instationnaire non gaussien est construit en utilisant les réalisations qui sont mesurées dans la soufflerie à couche limite turbulente; ce générateur basé sur une représentation en chaos polynomiaux permet de construire un grand nombre de réalisations indépendantes afin d'obtenir la convergence des statistiques des valeurs extrêmes des réponses dynamiques, (2) un modèle d'ordre réduit avec des termes d'accélération quasi-statique est construit et permet d'accélérer la convergence des réponses dynamiques de la structure en n'utilisant qu'un petit nombre de modes élastiques, (3) une nouvelle méthode probabiliste est proposée pour estimer les forces statiques équivalentes induites par les effets du vent sur des structures complexes décrites par des modèles éléments finis, en préservant le caractère non gaussien et sans introduire le concept d'enveloppes des réponses. L'approche proposée est validée expérimentalement avec une application relativement simple et elle est ensuite appliquée à une structure de toiture de stade pour laquelle des mesures expérimentales de pressions instationnaires ont été effectuées dans la soufflerie à couche limite turbulente / In order to estimate the equivalent static wind loads, which produce the extreme quasi-static and dynamical responses of structures submitted to random unsteady pressure field induced by the wind effects, a new probabilistic method is proposed. This method allows for computing the equivalent static wind loads for structures with complex aerodynamic flows such as stadium roofs, for which the pressure field is non-Gaussian, and for which the dynamical response of the structure cannot simply be described by using only the first elastic modes (but require a good representation of the quasi-static responses). Usually, the wind tunnel measurements of the unsteady pressure field applied to a structure with complex geometry are not sufficient for constructing a statistically converged estimation of the extreme values of the dynamical responses. Such a convergence is necessary for the estimation of the equivalent static loads in order to reproduce the extreme dynamical responses induced by the wind effects taking into account the non-Gaussianity of the random unsteady pressure field. In this work, (1) a generator of realizations of the non-Gaussian unsteady pressure field is constructed by using the realizations that are measured in the boundary layer wind tunnel; this generator based on a polynomial chaos representation allows for generating a large number of independent realizations in order to obtain the convergence of the extreme value statistics of the dynamical responses, (2) a reduced-order model with quasi-static acceleration terms is constructed, which allows for accelerating the convergence of the structural dynamical responses by using only a small number of elastic modes of the structure, (3) a novel probabilistic method is proposed for estimating the equivalent static wind loads induced by the wind effects on complex structures that are described by finite element models, preserving the non-Gaussian property and without introducing the concept of responses envelopes. The proposed approach is experimentally validated with a relatively simple application and is then applied to a stadium roof structure for which experimental measurements of unsteady pressures have been performed in boundary layer wind tunnel