M.Sc. (Statistics) / Most people in the world rely on a well-functioning and stable financial system. Problems experienced by financial institutions, such as too little liquidity or large amounts of bad debt, can easily influence companies and individuals, creating a chain reaction comparable to an avalanche. Financial institutions are faced with a very difficult constrained optimization problem - generating as much profit as possible while staying in business by limiting the amount of risk taken.

The volatility of stock markets has important implications for investment decision making, financial stability and overall macroeconomic stability. This study examines the risk-return relationship as well as the behaviour of volatility of the South African equity markets using both aggregate, industrial level and sector level data. The study is divided into three parts. The first part investigates the behaviour of volatility in each of the industries, sectors and the benchmark series focussing on whether volatility is symmetric or asymmetric. Subsequently we investigate which, among the GARCH family of models appropriately captured the riskreturn relationship under which distributional assumption. The second part examines the riskreturn relationship on the SA stock market. The third part examines the long term trend of volatility and whether volatility significantly increases during financial crises and during major global shocks. The GARCH-M, EGARCH-M and TARCH-M models under the Gaussian, Student –t and the GED are used. The findings this study makes are as follows: firstly, there is no clear relationship between risk and return. Secondly, volatility is asymmetrical, implying that bad news has a greater effect on volatility than good news in the South African equity market. Thirdly, the TARCH-M model under the GED was found to be the most appropriate model. Fourthly, volatility increases during financial crises and major global shocks. Overall, volatility is generally not priced on the South African equity markets. Thus, both local and international investors need to consider other factors that influence returns such as skewness. The general increase in volatility during financial crises and major global shocks poses a major concern for policy makers as this may cause financial instability. Thus policy makers need to be mindful of the behaviour of volatility in the South African equity market in response to external shocks.

No description available.

The world has become one small global village. This is a result of globalisation, the advancement in technology and many other contributing factors. Economic incidents and outlook in Europe, Asia and America have a direct and immediate impact on the developing countries and Africa in particular. Positive economic growth in Africa’s major trading partners has direct positive implications on Africa’s economy. Negative economic growth in Africa’s major trading partners has undesirable consequences on Africa’s economy. As a developing country with a diversified economy which mainly relies on exports and imports, South Africa’s economy is at the forefront of this economic risk. Globalisation has effectively resulted in the Republic of South African’s (RSA) export driven tank container industry being at direct economic and financial risk from global financial melt downs, volatile exchange rates, fluctuating steel prices, souring labour costs, and more importantly competitiveness risk. In the history of the industrial era, never has it been more important to have and maintain a competitive advantage. This is achieved through, inter alia, the development and successful implementation of a competitive strategy. A competitive advantage assists an organisation to financially survive, expand its operations, grow market share and achieve set corporate objectives and goals. A successful organisation has a massive social impact and economic contribution in a country. It is therefore no surprise that the field of competitive strategy has received vast academic interest. Amidst the ever changing world and markets, a competitive strategy needs to be fine-tuned, revised and reinvented. What has worked in the past will not ensure tomorrow success. The purpose of this research treatise is to investigate the factors that led to a sustained competitive advantage for a tank container manufacturer. This was achieved by applying various scientific methodologies. A case study approach was used as the most appropriate research methodology for this study. This approach entailed the use of a phenomenological paradigm. An extensive literature review on competitiveness and of strategy formulation and implementation was conducted, which has led to the development of research propositions. The study entailed a case study of a single tank container manufacturer in the RSA. The study contributes positively to the academic field of competitiveness and to the existing academic body of knowledge. It also makes a positive contribution to tank container manufacturing academic literature on competitiveness and organisational strategy formulation and strategy implementation.

Purpose - The study sought to examine the liquidity linkages between the South African bond and equity markets before the global financial crisis in 2008. Design/methodology/approach: The window of observation covered the period January 2000 to September 2008. In order to ensure robustness in the estimation, the study used foreign participation in the various markets as an additional measure of liquidity. The other liquidity measures considered in the study were volume and value traded of the various securities respectively. Time series modeling techniques were used in the estimation. An unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated following which the standard innovation accounting techniques, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions were applied. In the empirical analysis, the Granger-causality between the two markets was also used. Findings - While all the liquidity measures suggest the existence of linkages between the bond and equity markets, the direction of causality was found to be unidirectional from equity to the bond market using the volume and value measures. On the other hand, the foreign participation measure of liquidity suggests bi-directional causality. The study also provides evidence of long run relationship between key macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on one hand and liquidity in the debt and equity markets on the other. As empirical findings indicates that the linkages in liquidity between these markets positive, this consistent with studies conducted by Chordia et al (2003 & 2005) and Engsted and Tanggaard (2000) who found the relationship was a positive one. When volumes of trade and trade values, the study find evidence on uni-directional causality and strong bi-directional causality is evidence when foreign investor participation is used as a liquidity measure. In summary, there is a strong evidence liquidity linkage between the bond and equity market from the empirical results.

Master thesis touches upon the interesting spheres of risk classification, measurement and management of financial institutions. Modern banks have numerous credit risk measurement models at their disposal. However, agreement about performance of those models is not that unanimous and to some point the models are blamed for breaking out of 2007 financial crisis. In the theoretical part of the thesis we provide survey of risk measurement practices in banks. We investigate the main types of risk of banks in their day-to-day activities. Special focus is paid on the credit risk and on the models and techniques of its measurement; Practical part of thesis then contains construction and accuracy estimation of particular credit-risk-model (Altman Z-score). In it we construct and compute Altman Z-score for sample of firms from two chosen sectors in United Kingdom. Main goals of the work are a) testing accuracy of the model by comparing its outputs to real development, and b) econometric testing of the specification of the model itself.

This dissertation studies topics in financial economics. In the first chapter, The Corporate Supply of (Quasi) Safe Assets, I examine whether the demand for safe assets affects nonfinancial corporations in the US. Investors value safety services in financial assets, such as the ability to serve as a store of value, to serve as collateral, or to meet mandatory capital and liquidity requirements. I present a model in which investors value safety services not only in traditional safe assets such as US Treasuries, but also in corporate debt. Shareholders thus maximize the value of the firm by complementing standard business operations with safe asset creation. Based on this theoretical framework, I use the CDS-bond basis to derive a measurement of the safety premium of corporate bonds. I document substantial cross sectional variation in the safety premium of corporate bonds, which allows me to test the model’s predictions. I show that a high safety premium leads toa marked increase in debt issuance by relatively safer firms. These debt proceeds have a small impact on real investment and are largely used instead for equity payouts. This mechanism can explain why, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, non-financial investment grade companies significantly increased their debt issuance and equity payout while investment remained weak. The second chapter, The Cross-Section of Risk and Return, focuses on a common practice in the finance literature which is to create characteristic portfolios by sorting on characteristics associated with average returns. We show that the resultant portfolios are likely to capture not only the priced risk associated with the characteristic but also unpriced risk. We develop a procedure to remove this unpriced risk using covariance information estimated from past returns. We apply our methodology to the five Fama-French characteristic portfolios. The squared Sharpe ratio of the optimal combination of the resultant characteristic efficient portfolios is 2.13, compared with 1.17 for the original characteristic portfolios. In the third chapter, Should Information be Sold Separately? Evidence from MiFID II, we examine whether selling information separately improves its production. We use a recent regulation in Europe (MiFID II) that unbundles research from transactions to investigate this question. We show that unbundling causes fewer research analysts to cover a firm. This decrease does not come from small- or mid-cap firms but is concentrated in large firms. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the reduction in the coverage quantity is accompanied by an increase in the coverage quality. Further analyses suggest that the enhancement of analyst competition could drive the results: inaccurate analysts drop out (extensive margin) and analysts who stay produce better-quality research (intensive margin). Our findings suggest that selling information separately improves information quality at the cost of reducing information quantity.

This study investigates whether bank regulations pertaining to capital and liquidity, which are designed to promote a resilient banking system, cause risk migration from the banking industry to the real economy. Specifically, I examine whether borrowers increase their risk-taking after incurring higher borrowing costs due to Basel III. Using a difference-in-differences research design to compare borrowers of banks that are more affected by Basel III (i.e., banks with $250 billion or more in total consolidated assets) with borrowers of banks that are less affected, I find that the borrowers more affected by Basel III (a) experienced a relative increase in loan costs, (b) displayed a relative increase in accounting- and market-based volatility, and (c) incurred a relative increase in investments in risky activities with uncertain benefits. These findings suggest that borrowers are exposed to moral hazard: to compensate for the increased borrowing costs, they are incentivized to take on more risk in pursuit of higher expected returns. Such results are not driven by adverse selection, time trend, or bank size. This study highlights a potential unintended consequence of bank regulations on borrower risk-taking.

The purpose of this study is to describe the financial risk tolerance of young swedish residents, which factors that affect their financial risk tolerance, and how their risk tolerance affects their investment behavior. Previous studies within the subject of financial risk tolerance have focused on a wider range of ages, and most of the studies have been made on an American population. This study also contributes with more factors in the same study than many previous studies. The factors included in this research are Gender, degree of education, relationship status, income, mood, birth order, future economic expectations, and financial knowledge. The research contains a quantitative study, where the data have been collected with a survey. The study has a deductive approach, which means that the study starts with theory and moves on with empiricism and hypotheses. The hypotheses have been developed from the results of earlier studies. The survey was dedicated to young Swedish residents in the ages of 18 to 30 years old. There were 123 respondents who answered the survey, which contained 24 questions. To measure the risk tolerance of young swedish residents, the Grable and Lytton’s Risk Tolerance Scale have been used. The result of the study tells us that the financial risk tolerance of young swedish residents are affected by the factors: Gender, future expectations on the stock market and financial knowledge. The study also tells us that there is a significant different in financial risk tolerance between young swedish residents who invest in stocks, compared to those who do not invest in stocks.

Value-at-Risk (VaR) model fails to predict financial risk accurately especially during financial crises. This is mainly due to the model’s inability to calibrate new market information and the fact that the risk measure is characterised by poor tail risk quantification. An alternative approach which comprises of the Expected Shortfall measure and the Lognormal Jump-Diffusion (LJD) model has been developed to address the aforementioned shortcomings of VaR. This model is called the Simulated-Expected-Shortfall (SES) model. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach is used in determining the parameters of the LJD model since it’s more reliable and authenticable when compared to other nonconventional parameters estimation approaches mentioned in other literature studies. These parameters are then plugged into the LJD model, which is simulated multiple times in generating the new loss dataset used in the developed model. This SES model is statistically conservative when compared to peers which means it’s more reliable in predicting financial risk especially during a financial crisis. / Statistics / M.Sc. (Statistics)