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One of the problems in the analysis of nucleus-nucleus collisions is to get information on the value of the impact parameter b. This work consists in the application of pattern recognition techniques aimed at associating values of b to groups of events. To this end, a support vec- tor machine (SVM) classifier is adopted to analyze multifragmentation reactions. This method allows to backtracing the values of b through a particular multidimensional analysis. The SVM classification con- sists of two main phase. In the first one, known as training phase, the classifier learns to discriminate the events that are generated by two different model:Classical Molecular Dynamics (CMD) and Heavy- Ion Phase-Space Exploration (HIPSE) for the reaction: 58Ni +48 Ca at 25 AMeV. To check the classification of events in the second one, known as test phase, what has been learned is tested on new events generated by the same models. These new results have been com- pared to the ones obtained through others techniques of backtracing the impact parameter. Our tests show that, following this approach, the central collisions and peripheral collisions, for the CMD events, are always better classified with respect to the classification by the others techniques of backtracing. We have finally performed the SVM classification on the experimental data measured by NUCL-EX col- laboration with CHIMERA apparatus for the previous reaction.

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A new methodology is being devised for ensemble ocean forecasting using distributions of the surface wind field derived from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). The ocean members are forced with samples from the posterior distribution of the wind during the assimilation of satellite and in-situ ocean data. The initial condition perturbations are then consistent with the best available knowledge of the ocean state at the beginning of the forecast and amplify the ocean response to uncertainty only in the forcing. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) surface winds are also used to generate a reference ocean ensemble to evaluate the performance of the BHM method that proves to be eective in concentrating the forecast uncertainty at the ocean meso-scale. An height month experiment of weekly BHM ensemble forecasts was performed in the framework of the operational Mediterranean Forecasting System. The statistical properties of the ensemble are compared with model errors throughout the seasonal cycle proving the existence of a strong relationship between forecast uncertainties due to atmospheric forcing and the seasonal cycle.

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