A flood routing and stage prediction model is developed using the techniques of State Space and Kalman filtering. The governing equation is the physically based hydrologic method of flood routing with the output being an optimal estimate of stage given known inputs of streamflow. These equations are developed in state space and the Kalman filter is employed to estimate the flow and river stage. The model is applied to the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers in the State of Washington, where the stage is affected by a shifting bed elevation. With the deterministic inputs at Mayfield Dam on the Cowlitz and Tower Road on the Toutle, the optimal output of stage is predicted at Castle Rock on the Cowlitz River. Addition of the Kalman Filter improves stage prediction based on an application to an observed storm event.

Bibliography: leaves [175-181]

Thesis (M.S. - Hydrology and Water Resources)--University of Arizona, 1982. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 136-142).

Thesis (M. En.)--Miami University, Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2005. / Title from first page of PDF document. Document formatted into pages; contains [1], v, 169, [1] p. : ill. Includes bibliographical references (p. 36).

Floods are now a topic discussed more and more frequently, requiring to be paid appropriate attention. Any activities carried out before floods occur, when they are being coped with, and after they recede, should be aimed above all at minimising the casualties and injuries. The diploma thesis analyses the measures taken to protect the population against floods in a selected sample of communities in the Pardubice Region and the South Bohemian Region. Readiness of the communities has been identified unambiguously under the conditions defined advance with a stress on the parameters observed. The analysis of the selected parts of the flood plans evaluates how the communities are ready to provide the population with protection if a flood occurs. In addition to a theoretical excursion to a specific field of the population protection applied in the environment of floods, the wide connections of its inclusion in the security system are also mentioned. The practical part deals with and analyses selected communities from the viewpoint of their readiness to take measures for protection of the population during the period of floods and from the viewpoint of their overall preparedness under the defined conditions. An index of readiness of the communities formulated with use of the operational analysis has been fixed for the purposes of an unambiguous identification. The index has been defined on the basis of monitoring clearly specified parameters formulated depending on the outputs from the legislative process and relevant standards. After the results have been processed and the conclusions have been made, the readiness of the selected communities to deal with floods, under precisely defined conditions, may be referred to as insufficient. The findings in the diploma thesis should be reflected by relevant flood-protection bodies. Use of the operation analysis methods and their applications also out of the field of the critical infrastructure are an added value of the thesis as well.

In this thesis I deal with organisations and organising of flood measures in the Czech Rep. until 2000 and after 2000. In the thesis I compare valid and no longer valid legislative regulations; by comparing them I observe the development of legislation concerning organisations and organising of flood measures in the Czech Rep. as well as the current legislative framework in this field. First, I compared legislative regulations valid until the flood of 1997 and after it and subsequently legislation that was changed on the basis of the flood of 1997 and the currently valid text of the Water Act no. 254/2001 Coll. The Acts no. 239/2000 Coll. on the Integrated Rescue System and the Act no. 240/2000 Coll. on Crisis Management, which were adopted in response to the community demand after the flood of 1997, when due to uncoordinated actions and confusion during the flood huge damage occurred to lives and health of people as well as their property, were not compared with regard to the date of their adoption. I have documented functionality of the current legislative set with practical outputs from the floods of 1997 and 2002 that clearly indicate the conclusion that legislation before 2000 was not good, even after the effort to improve it after the flood of 1997. These shortcomings have been remedied and the Water Act together with the Acts on the Integrated Rescue System and the Crisis Management represent a modern and functional model, which becomes apparent if you compare the outputs of the floods of 1997 and 2002. I consider the duality of management that occurs on announcement of a critical state as a partial flaw of the Act no. 254/2001 Coll. A flood is one of many possible emergency events and its solution should not be terminologically differentiated in the operative activities of collective management bodies - commissions - as in practice this results in a number of states of confusion and misunderstanding. A solution might consist in cancellation of flood commissions, which would remove management inconsistency during the development of a flood, possible misunderstanding, ambiguity in names of organisations, etc.

Recentes catástrofes provocadas por eventos hidrológicos extremos ocorridos nas cidades brasileiras revelaram a fragilidade das atuais políticas empregadas no tratamento do problema das inundações. Freqüentemente, faltam recursos mesmo para as ações emergenciais, e as ações estruturais aplicadas muitas vezes consistem de medidas pontuais e paliativas que não promovem soluções definitivas no âmbito de bacia hidrográfica. O tratamento do problema de inundações de maneira orientada ao risco, em lugar da tradicional abordagem orientada a evento, é uma alternativa que propicia soluções mais eficientes e sustentáveis. A gestão do risco de desastres naturais compreende três níveis: antes, durante e após o evento extremo, com base em ações que visam à redução do risco por meio de suas três componentes: ameaça, vulnerabilidade e exposição. No contexto do desenvolvimento e fortalecimento econômico do Brasil, os seguros para desastres naturais têm papel importante como agentes de transferência do risco que possibilitam a recuperação econômica das áreas atingidas. Vencido o entrave inicial à implantação de seguros deste tipo no Brasil, que foi a abertura, em 2007, ao mercado ressegurador internacional, o desafio que se apresenta atualmente é o desenvolvimento de metodologias que possibilitem relacionar a magnitude do evento natural extremo com o prejuízo monetário correspondente e o prêmio de seguro que possibilite ressarcir as perdas contabilizadas, considerando cenários de longo prazo. O modelo de seguros proposto neste trabalho é baseado no princípio de seguro indexado, em que o pagamento de indenizações é vinculado a uma variável climática, no caso, a vazão máxima de cheia. Foram utilizadas ferramentas de modelagem e simulação hidráulico-hidrológica para gerar mapas de risco de inundação e quantificar os prejuízos correspondentes às cheias de diferentes probabilidades de ocorrência. Em seguida, foi simulado um modelo econômico de seguros para obter o prêmio ótimo capaz de ressarcir os prejuízos estimados, considerando diferentes cenários de longo prazo. Um estudo de caso ilustra a aplicação do método em uma bacia hidrográfica caracterizada por problemas recorrentes de inundação, dado o processo de expansão urbana que nela vem ocorrendo. Foram avaliadas faixas de cobertura em função dos períodos de retorno das cheias correspondentes. Os resultados mostraram que a metodologia é adequada à análise do comportamento do fundo de seguros. Resseguros podem ser requeridos para o tratamento de eventos de períodos de retorno muito extremos. / Recent disasters caused by extreme hydrological events, occurred in Brazilian cities, have exposed how fragile the current policies are to manage such situation. Often, a lack of resources is observed even for emergency actions, while structural actions commonly consist of palliative and punctual measures that do not promote real solutions considering the watershed sphere. To face the problem based on a risk-oriented approach instead of the traditional event-oriented approach represents an alternative that provides more efficient and sustainable solutions. Disaster risk management comprehends three time-oriented phases: before, during and after the extreme event, each phase focusing on the three risk\'s components: hazard, vulnerability and exposition. As Brazil\'s economy grows stronger and more stable, natural disaster insurance plays an important role as a risk transfer mechanism, promoting economic resilience in damaged areas. After the opening of the reinsurance\'s market in 2007, Brazil\'s challenge is to develop methodologies relating extreme events hazard with its corresponding damage and an insurance premium, in a way that the losses can be refunded in long term sceneries. The insurance model proposed in this work is based on the indexed insurance, where the refunds are linked to a weather variable - the maximum discharge. Hydrologic and hydraulic simulations were developed in order to generate risk maps and to quantify the damage related to floods with different return periods. Afterwards, a flood insurance model was simulated in order to obtain the optimal insurance premium sufficient to refund the expected damage for long term sceneries. A case study illustrates the method in a watershed where flood events are frequent due to urban occupation. The insurance coverage associated to each flood return period was examined and the results have shown that the methodology is suitable for the analysis of the flood insurance\'s behavior. Reinsurance may be required to deal with extreme events with high return periods.

When analyzing the flood risk using multi-criteria analysis it is necessary to estimate

Les contours théoriques en hydrologie, hydraulique et les outils de calcul correspondants sont largement développés et utilisés dans le monde. Cependant en parallèle, des problématiques importantes surviennent pendant les crises sans pouvoir être résolues et des solutions développées peinent à être implémentées. En plus, le changement climatique ne va pas faciliter les choses. Pour noircir le tableau, les moyens économiques locaux en France ne vont pas augmenter pour aider les communes à s’attaquer au problème. L’objectif de cette thèse est de conduire une investigation des moyens à disposition pour améliorer notre connaissance locale des concepts en lien avec le pluvial pour permettre une modélisation efficiente. La méthodologie proposée est composée de trois étapes évolutives incluant : 1. Une analyse approfondie des données topographiques locales ; 2. L’évaluation des interactions entre les écoulements de surface et le souterrain ; 3.Une approche intégrée permettant de modéliser les inondations générées par la pluie en zone urbanisée. Les résultats de l’étape 1 montrent que la donnée topographique est essentielle pour la définition des chemins d’écoulement et impactent significativement les résultats de modélisation hydrauliques. Ceci conduit à l’étape 2 lors de laquelle on observe que les débordements provenant du réseau souterrain contribuent à l’inondation mais seulement en partie. Les volumes d’inondations générés par le ruissellement de surface devraient être inclus dans les modèles d’inondation. L’étape 3 présente une configuration possible de modèle intégré permettant de mieux représenter les processus réels en jeu. / Theoretical background about hydrology, hydraulics and computational tools and methods are widely developed and worldwide used. In the same time however, important issues during flood crisis are not solved and practical solutions take time to be implemented. On top of that, ongoing climatic change will not make things easier and intense events will increase in frequency. To worsen the picture, local economic means in France will not increase to help municipalities and local communities to tackle the issue. The objective of this thesis is to investigate on the available ways to improve our local knowledge of stormwater related concepts to allow an efficient modelling. The proposed methodology consists in a three-step-approach including: 1. A thorough analysis of local topography data; 2. The assessment of sewer-surface interactions; 3. An integrated approach to model pluvial flood in urban areas. The results of Step 1 show that topography data is essential in flow path definition and significantly impacts hydraulic modelling results. This leads to Step 2 where it is seen that sewer overflow is one aspect of urban flood issues but represents only part of flood sources. Overland flow generated by runoff should be included in flood models. Then Step 3 presents that integrated urban pluvial modelling is possible with existing tools and can represent the real processes better. This proposed modelling approach should not be disconnected from the reality of stormwater management practical aspects and current constraints. It is shown how complementary actions can be taken to enrich local knowledge and memory thus allowing a more efficient and wiser modelling process.

I Sverige inträffar många skyfall och intensiva regn under sommarmånaderna. Det finns inga uppenbara geografiska mönster, vilket är en skillnad gentemot älv- eller sjööversvämningar där det vanligtvis är känt vilka områden som kan komma att översvämmas vid en viss vattennivå eller ett visst vattenflöde. För individer och samhällsaktörer innebär en skyfallshändelse i många fall en stor överraskning då skyfall utvecklas snabbt och dagens meteorologiska prognossystem i stort inte lyckas att prognosticera extrema regn korrekt med avseende på mängd, tid och plats. Vädervarningar kommer med kort varsel eller uteblir helt. Konsekvenserna av intensiv nederbörd och skyfall är främst översvämningar och erosionsskador på byggnader och infrastruktur, men även störningar och avbrott i olika samhällsfunktioner som kan påverka samhället och individer utanför det drabbade området. I denna avhandling har 15 år av försäkringsskadedata använts för att undersöka samband mellan nederbördsintensitet och skyfallsskador. Även påverkan av andra faktorer som topografi, bebyggelse och socioekonomiska aspekter har undersökts. Resultaten visar att regnintensitet under ett 60 minuters intervall i kombination med korta perioder av extrem intensitet, tillsammans med topografiska faktorer spelar en betydande roll vid uppkomsten av skador.