Orientador: Prof. Dr. Ricardo Caneloi dos Santos / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do ABC. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Energia, 2015. / Este projeto de pesquisa estabelece uma metodologia para determinar os índices de confiabilidade/disponibilidade em subestações de energia elétrica, partindo da necessidade de tornar as operações de manutenção mais eficazes mitigando os impactos ambientais, sociais, econômicos e técnicos provocados pelos cortes de fornecimento de energia elétrica. A metodologia utilizada baseia-se em dois métodos normalmente utilizados individualmente em estudos de confiabilidade. O método denominado Árvore de Falhas que proporciona um modelo lógico de possíveis combinações de falhas para um evento principal, e a simulação de Monte Carlo que possibilita estimar os índices de interesse do sistema elétrico pela geração aleatória dos diferentes estados do sistema (operação, falha ou manutenção). Considerando este contexto, neste trabalho de pesquisa são identificados os pontos vulneráveis, a probabilidade de falha e a indisponibilidade de cada subestação, com o objetivo de elevar os índices de confiabilidade, elevar a vida útil dos componentes e proporcionar um esquema otimizado de manutenção preventiva para as concessionárias. Consequentemente, o resultado desse trabalho visa diminuir a frequência dos cortes de energia não programados e seus respectivos impactos ambientais, sociais e econômicos produzidos pelo não fornecimento de energia elétrica. Nesse sentido, uma discussão sobre os impactos das falhas elétricas para sociedade também é realizada. / This work provides a methodology to determine the levels of reliability/availability in electrical substations, based on the need to improve the efficiency of maintenance operation reducing negative environmental, social, economic and technical impacts, caused by power outages. The methodology is based on two methods typically used individually in reliability studies. The method called Fault Tree that provides a logical model of possible failure combinations for a major event, and the Monte Carlo simulation used to determine the power system index by random generation of the different states of the system (operation, failure or maintenance). Considering this context, in this work are identified vulnerabilities points, the probability of failure and the unavailability of each substation, in order to increase the reliability indices, increase the service life of components and provide a better preventive maintenance scheduled. Consequently, this works seeks to decrease the frequency of uncontrolled power cuts and their environmental, social and economic impacts produced by nonsupply of electricity. In this sense, a discussion about the impacts of electrical faults to society is also conducted.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:27:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:04:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Tese (Doutoramento) / IPEN/T / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:27:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:04:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Este trabalho teve como objetivo o desenvolvimento de um sistema computacional (software) de gerenciamento de risco, viabilizando o diagnóstico dos riscos dos processos de radioesterilização de tecidos biológicos. O gerenciamento de risco pode ser entendido como uma gestão sistemática que tem por objetivo identificar, registrar e controlar os riscos de um processo. Para a execução do gerenciamento de risco são requisitos fundamentais: a experiência, o discernimento e o julgamento de uma equipe multidisciplinar, direcionada por meio de ferramentas de qualidade, no intuito de proporcionar padronização no processo investigativo das causas e efeitos dos riscos; dinamismo também é requisito no alcance do objetivo desejado: a redução e o controle do risco. Nesse sentido, a aplicação do gerenciamento de risco torna-se uma atividade complexa, devido à variedade de profissionais envolvidos. Por isso, o apoio de um sistema computacional é tão importante, pois, no que tange ao gerenciamento de risco, o software facilita as tarefas do responsável pelo processo de radioesterilização de tecidos biológicos, que pode, inclusive, contar com a utilização de normas e guias específicos. Essas informações de sumária importância são indexadas nos diagnósticos de riscos, o que torna possível ao responsável qualificado a execução de ações corretivas para a garantia da segurança do processo. A metodologia adotada neste trabalho foi a pesquisa-ação, segundo a qual o pesquisador desempenha um papel ativo no equacionamento dos problemas encontrados, bem como no acompanhamento e avaliação das ações desencadeadas em função dos problemas observados. O cenário dessa pesquisa-ação foi o Laboratório de Tecidos Biológicos (LTB) no Centro de Tecnologia das Radiações (CTR, IPEN/CNEN-SP, Brasil). O software foi desenvolvido em linguagem PHP e Flash/MySQL e está hospedado num servidor que o torna disponível na internet via endereço www.vcrisk.com.br, podendo, então, ser acessado de qualquer lugar pelo usuário , por meio de um login/senha previamente encaminhados por e-mail. O sistema computacional apresenta uma navegabilidade amigável, o que permite que o usuário seja guiado, passo a passo, no processo investigativo do risco até as suas medidas de redução. Tal sistema direciona o usuário a apresentar a efetividade das ações tomadas para redução do risco dentro de prazos previstos. Assim, o uso desse sistema proporciona à organização (LTB/CTR/IPEN) uma comunicação dinâmica e efetiva entre os membros da equipe multidisciplinar: a) na tomada de decisões; b) nas lições aprendidas; c) no conhecimento do novo risco e suas ações para mantê-lo controlado; e d) no gerenciamento de falhas e riscos, garantindo a realização da principal meta de um laboratório de radioesterilização de tecidos biológicos que é a excelência de qualidade do tecido radioesterilizado. / Tese (Doutoramento) / IPEN/T / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Yes / Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a well-established and well-understood technique, widely used for dependability evaluation of a wide range of systems. Although many extensions of fault trees have been proposed, they suffer from a variety of shortcomings. In particular, even where software tool support exists, these analyses require a lot of manual effort. Over the past two decades, research has focused on simplifying dependability analysis by looking at how we can synthesise dependability information from system models automatically. This has led to the field of model-based dependability analysis (MBDA). Different tools and techniques have been developed as part of MBDA to automate the generation of dependability analysis artefacts such as fault trees. Firstly, this paper reviews the standard fault tree with its limitations. Secondly, different extensions of standard fault trees are reviewed. Thirdly, this paper reviews a number of prominent MBDA techniques where fault trees are used as a means for system dependability analysis and provides an insight into their working mechanism, applicability, strengths and challenges. Finally, the future outlook for MBDA is outlined, which includes the prospect of developing expert and intelligent systems for dependability analysis of complex open systems under the conditions of uncertainty.

No description available.

Current regulations specify the minimum number of operators required per nuclear power plant. However, these requirements are based on the operation of large nuclear power plants, which are not inherent safe and can result in a meltdown. For newly developed small nuclear reactors, the current number of operators seems to be excessive causing the technology to be less competitive. Before the number of required operators can be optimised, it should be demonstrated that human errors will not endanger or cause risk to the plant or public. For this study, a small pebble bed High Temperature Reactor (HTR) Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), the Th-100, was evaluated. The inherent safety features of this type of nuclear reactor include independent barriers for fission product capture and passive heat dissipation during a loss of coolant. The control and instrumentation architecture include two independent protection systems. The Control and Limitation System is the first protection system to react if the reactor parameters exceed those of the normal operational safe zone. If the Control and Limitation System fail to maintain the reactor within the safe zone, the Reactor Protection System would at that time operate and force the reactor to a safe state. Both these automated protection systems are installed in a control room local to the reactor building, protected from adverse conditions. In addition, it is connected to a semi-remote control room, anticipated as a multi-unit control room to include the monitoring and control of the auxiliary systems. Probable case studies of human error associated with multi-unit control rooms were evaluated against the logic of the Control and Limitation System. Fault Tree Analysis was used to investigate all possible failures. The evaluation determined the reliability of the Control and Limitation System and highlighted areas which design engineers should take into account if a higher reliability is required. The scenario was expanded, applying the same methods, to include the large release of fission products in order to verify the reliability calculations. The probability of a large release of fission products compared with studies done on other nuclear installations revealed to be much less for the evaluated HTR as was expected. As the study has proved that human error cannot have a negative influence on the safety of the reactor, it can be concluded that the first step has been met which is required, when applying for a waiver to utilise a multi-unit control room for the small pebble bed HTR NPP. Also, from the study, it is recommended that a practical approach be applied for the evaluation of operator duties on a live plant, to optimise the number of operators required. This in turn will position the inherent safe HTR competitively over other power stations. / MIng (Nuclear Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Current regulations specify the minimum number of operators required per nuclear power plant. However, these requirements are based on the operation of large nuclear power plants, which are not inherent safe and can result in a meltdown. For newly developed small nuclear reactors, the current number of operators seems to be excessive causing the technology to be less competitive. Before the number of required operators can be optimised, it should be demonstrated that human errors will not endanger or cause risk to the plant or public. For this study, a small pebble bed High Temperature Reactor (HTR) Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), the Th-100, was evaluated. The inherent safety features of this type of nuclear reactor include independent barriers for fission product capture and passive heat dissipation during a loss of coolant. The control and instrumentation architecture include two independent protection systems. The Control and Limitation System is the first protection system to react if the reactor parameters exceed those of the normal operational safe zone. If the Control and Limitation System fail to maintain the reactor within the safe zone, the Reactor Protection System would at that time operate and force the reactor to a safe state. Both these automated protection systems are installed in a control room local to the reactor building, protected from adverse conditions. In addition, it is connected to a semi-remote control room, anticipated as a multi-unit control room to include the monitoring and control of the auxiliary systems. Probable case studies of human error associated with multi-unit control rooms were evaluated against the logic of the Control and Limitation System. Fault Tree Analysis was used to investigate all possible failures. The evaluation determined the reliability of the Control and Limitation System and highlighted areas which design engineers should take into account if a higher reliability is required. The scenario was expanded, applying the same methods, to include the large release of fission products in order to verify the reliability calculations. The probability of a large release of fission products compared with studies done on other nuclear installations revealed to be much less for the evaluated HTR as was expected. As the study has proved that human error cannot have a negative influence on the safety of the reactor, it can be concluded that the first step has been met which is required, when applying for a waiver to utilise a multi-unit control room for the small pebble bed HTR NPP. Also, from the study, it is recommended that a practical approach be applied for the evaluation of operator duties on a live plant, to optimise the number of operators required. This in turn will position the inherent safe HTR competitively over other power stations. / MIng (Nuclear Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Sistemų gedimo modeliavimas paprastai vykdomas taikant taip vadinamus gedimų medžius. Sistemos gedimo tikimybės ir gedimo atsiradimo priežasčių vertinimas dažniausiai atliekamas sudarant minimalių kirtimų aibę (MCS) ir pagal ją įvertinant gedimo tikimybę. Pastaruosius dvidešimt metų tiksliam gedimo tikimybės vertinimui yra taikoma dvejetainė sprendimų diagrama (BDD). Tačiau BDD sudarymo ir taikymo metodika vis dar yra tobulinama. Iki šiol Lietuvoje sistemos gedimo tikimybės vertinimui BDD dar nebuvo taikyta. Pristatant atliktą darbą aprašomi pagrindiniai MCS ir BDD sudarymo metodai bei jų taikymo ypatybės. Taip pat pateikiamas Kauno hidroelektrinės užtvankos vartų valdymo sistemos gedimo modelis ir gedimo tikimybės vertinimas. Šiuo tikslu buvo taikomi skirtingi MCS ir BDD sudarymo metodai bei atitinkamos programinės priemonės. Atlikus bandomuosius skaičiavimus taip pat pateikiamas gautų rezultatų palyginimas. Darbe apibūdinami pagrindiniai MCS ir BDD taikymo privalumai ir trūkumai bei pristatoma naujai sukurta programinė priemonė „DemoITE“. Taikant išanalizuotus algoritmus bei sukurtą programinę priemonę „DemoITE“ buvo ištirtos ir nustatytos sistemos gedimo priežastys bei tiksliai įvertinta sistemos gedimo tikimybė. Be to, pasiūlyta bazinių įvykių rangavimo principas, įgalinantis gauti mažiausią BDD struktūrą. / Modelling of system failure usually is performed applying so-called fault trees. Assessment of system failure probability and failure occurrence causes usually is performed developing a minimal cut-set (MCS) and according to it evaluating probability of system failure. The last twenty years a binary decision diagram (BDD) has been applied for the exact evaluation of system failure. However, a methodology of creation and application of BDD is still under development. Till now in Lithuania for the assessment of system failure probability BDD has not been applied yet. Presenting a performed work the main methods of development of MCS and BDD as well as features of their application is described. Also, the model and assessment of failure of Kaunas hydropower dam gates’ control system is presented. For this task the different methods of development of MCS and BDD as well as corresponding software was applied. Having performed the testing calculations a comparison of results is presented too. In the work the main advantages and disadvantages of MCS and BDD application are described and newly created software “DemoITE” is introduced. The developed algorithms and universal software “DemoITE” is used for visualization of failure causes and for exact estimation of the investigated system failure probability. Also, it is proposed the order of basic events on purpose to design the least BDD.

Les véhicules aériens sans pilote (UAVs), utilisés et développés pour la première fois dans le domaine militaire, ont connu de profonds changements ces dernières années et sont de plus en plus utilisés dans le domaine civil. Etant plus connus sous le nom des drones, ils sont le plus souvent utilisés dans les domaines civiles et militaires. Ils sont employés pour : la lutte contre les incendies, le sauvetage ainsi que dans des applications spécifiques comme la surveillance et l’attaque. Le vol en formation est de loin le plus utilisé car il permet une répartition judicieuse des tâches et améliore grandement l’efficacité des drones (principe de l’attaque en meute, des animaux carnassiers). Cela pose alors la problématique de la coordination et de la stratégie, ainsi que du type de fonctionnement (maitre/esclave,…).Le type et la qualité d’informations optimums restent aussi à définir.L'utilisation accrue de ces systèmes coopératifs dans des environnements dangereux rend leur fiabilité essentielle pour prévenir tout événement catastrophique. Une performance globale de la flotte des drones doit être garantie, malgré une possible dégradation des composants ou de toute modification du réseau et de l'environnement. Il est nécessaire de détecter les comportements anormaux pouvant contribuer aux collisions et ainsi affecter la mission. Compte tenu des performances et du coût, les systèmes à tolérance de pannes et à redondance ne représentent pas toujours la solution la plus efficace pour ce type de vol de flotte en formation. Différentes méthodes telles que l'analyse par arbre de défaillance (ADD), l'analyse des modes de défaillance, de leurs effets et de leurs criticités (AMDEC) ont été utilisées dans le monde des hélicoptères.Dans une première partie, une méthode statique basée sur l’ADD est proposée, pour assurer la fiabilité de la communication entre les drones d’un côté et entre les drones et la station de base de l’autre côté en accentuant l’échange de flux d’informations. Nous utilisons des arbres de défaillance pour représenter les différentes conditions d’erreur de ce système complexe.Dans une deuxième partie, nous analysons les différents états de défaillance des communications et leurs probabilités. Ce processus étant stochastique, une approche par chaîne de Markov absorbante est développée. L’approche proposée peut être utilisée pour trouver les scenarios les plus risqués et les éléments à prendre en compte pour améliorer la fiabilité.Enfin, dans une troisième partie, nous étudions le problème de réception des messages d’un drone en proposant un protocole basé sur le nombre de retransmissions. La réception est assurée avec une certaine probabilité de fiabilité, en fonction de plusieurs attributs tels que la modulation, le taux d’erreur des bits (BER) caractérisant les drones. / Unmanned aerial vehicles, used and developed initially in the military field, have experienced profound changes in recent years and are increasingly used in the civilian field. Recognized as drones, they are most often used in the civil and military domains. They are used for firefighting, rescue as well as in specific applications such as surveillance and attack. The formation flight is the most used because it allows a judicious distribution of the tasks and greatly improves the efficiency of the drones (principle of the attack in pack, carnivorous animals). This will raise the issue of coordination and strategy, as well as the type of operation (master /slave, ...). The type and quality of optimal information also remain to be defined.The increased use of these cooperative systems in hazardous environments makes their reliability essential to prevent any catastrophic event. Overall performance of the drone fleet should be ensured, despite possible degradation of components or any changes that occur to the network and the environment. It is necessary to detect the anomalous behaviors that might contribute to collisions and thus affect the mission. Taking into consideration performance and cost, the fault-tolerant system and redundant systems are not always the most efficient solution for the formation fleet flight. Different methods like the fault tree analysis (FTA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) have been used in the helicopter field.In the first part, we propose a static method based on FTA, to ensure a successful communication between the drones from one side, and between the drones and the ground station from the other side by emphasizing on the exchange of information flows. It uses various fault trees to represent the different error conditions of this complex system.In the second part, we analyze the different fault states and their probabilities. As this process is stochastic, an absorbing Markov chain approach is developed. The proposed approach can be used to find the most risky scenarios and considerations for improving reliability.Finally, in the third part, we put the emphasis on the message receipt problem in a drone’s communication network by proposing a protocol based on number of retransmissions. The reception of a message is provided with a certain probability of reliability depending on several attributes such as modulation and bit error rate (BER) characterizing the UAVs.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:27:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T13:56:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Dissertacao (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP