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<p>In this dissertation, I examine at the aggregate and individual levels, why contemporary fertility preferences diverge from actual fertility. I use three waves of cross-sectional survey data from the National Family Health Surveys from India (also known as the Indian Demographic and Health Surveys), fielded in 1992-3, 1998-9 and 2005-6 to investigate the disjuncture between preferences and behavior. The first empirical chapter outlines and operationalizes a new framework to decompose the incongruence between stated preferences and actual fertility into a set of parameters, such as unwanted births, gender preference and postponement of births to later ages, each of which varies in its level and intensity between societies and over time. By delineating the societal constraints that women do not incorporate in their childbearing intentions, this model provides a useful framework to explain variability in fertility in contemporary intermediate- and low-fertility populations. Equally important, the framework provides avenues to enquire into the fundamental structural and cultural correlates producing differences between family size preferences and actual fertility.</p><p>Subsequent empirical chapters explore various aspects of fertility preferences in detail. The second chapter probes a key socioeconomic correlate of individual-level fertility preferences, namely educational differences in preferences. In brief, I find that educational differences in family size preferences have considerably converged over time using two-way fixed effects models. However, there is still considerable heterogeneity in the implementation of preferences (as manifested by the use of contraception). Accordingly, in the third chapter, I analyze the multilevel sources of variation in the use of contraception by young women, given that they express a preference to space or stop childbearing. Using multilevel models, I find that community norms play a strong role in the use of contraception by young women to meet their fertility preferences to space or stop childbearing. I argue that community norms are an influential determinant of young women's ability to regulate their own fertility - serving to enhance or constrain their use of contraception to either space or stop childbearing. </p><p>Overall, findings from this dissertation highlight the macro-level factors that explain variation in contemporary fertility, of which fertility preferences emerge as a critical parameter. This dissertation also illuminates the growing convergence of fertility preferences across socioeconomic categories, while focusing attention on local community forces that influence fertility behavior even in the face of women's stated preferences.</p> / Dissertation

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L'Afrique subsaharienne est actuellement un point focal dans les études démographiques, principalement en raison de ses dynamiques uniques lors de la transition démographique. Au cœur de cette attention, les intentions de fécondité jouent un rôle crucial, justifiant la sélection de cette étude visant à approfondir la compréhension de l'influence de la famille d'origine sur les préférences en matière de fécondité chez les femmes à Madagascar. Cette analyse se concentre sur deux variables dépendantes, à savoir le désir d'enfant et le nombre idéal d'enfants, ainsi que deux variables indépendantes clés, à savoir l'ordre de naissance et la taille de la fratrie. Bien qu'explorée de manière exhaustive dans les pays développés disposant de données complètes accessibles, cette étude apporte une contribution significative à la compréhension de cette relation dans le contexte de la région subsaharienne. En s'appuyant sur les données de l'Enquête Démographique et de Santé (EDS) de 2008-2009, cette étude se base sur un échantillon analytique de femmes en âge de procréer, spécifiquement entre 15 et 49 ans. Des analyses descriptives et des régressions ont été appliquées, et les résultats révèlent un impact négligeable de l'ordre de naissance sur les préférences en matière de fécondité, tandis qu'un effet positif et statistiquement significatif de la taille de la fratrie sur ces préférences est mis en évidence. Cette étude enrichit notre compréhension des déterminants de la fécondité à Madagascar en mettant en lumière le rôle significatif de la famille d'origine, en particulier la taille du groupe de frères et sœurs, dans les préférences en matière de fécondité. / Sub-Saharan Africa is currently a focal point in demographic studies, primarily due to its unique dynamics during the demographic transition. Central to this focus, fertility intentions play a crucial role, justifying the selection of this study aimed at deepening the understanding of the influence of the family of origin on fertility preferences among women in Madagascar. This analysis focuses on two dependent variables, namely the desire for children and the ideal number of children, as well as two key independent variables, namely birth order and sibling size. While extensively explored in developed countries with accessible comprehensive data, this study makes a significant contribution to understanding this relationship in the context of the sub-Saharan region. Leveraging data from the 2008-2009 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), this study draws on an analytical sample of women of reproductive age, specifically between 15 and 49 years. Descriptive analyses and regressions were applied, and the results reveal a negligible impact of birth order on fertility preferences, while a positive and statistically significant effect of sibling size on these preferences is revealed. This study enhances our understanding of fertility determinants in Madagascar by highlighting the significant role of the family of origin, particularly the size of the sibling group, in fertility preferences.

Prevailing low fertility rates in several European states, such as Germany, have been studied widely in recent years. Findings include discrepancies between fertility preference and actual family size as well as between fertility intentions and fertility behavior; an ‘unmet need’ for children found on the individual and the societal level. Fertility preference is specified as the individual ideal number of children, and fertility intentions as the long- or short-term plans to have a child. Apart from investigating the rates of realization, these measures have been understudied. The objective of this study is to illuminate a new angle of low fertility rates in Germany by reviewing fertility measures previously considered to be stable predictors of fertility behavior. The aim is to investigate the stability of fertility preferences and of positive short-term fertility intentions of Germans in their reproductive age. According to the Theory of Planned Behavior and the life-course perspective, attitudes and experiences can influence fertility preferences and short-term fertility intentions. In this study, the suspected connection between unstable preferences and intentions and certain attitudes towards and experiences with the career, working life, and childcare situation is examined. These processes are expected to differ between men and women, and between childless individuals, parents with one child and parents with more than one child. Using data from seven survey waves of the German family panel pairfam, fixed-effects and random-effects regression models are run separately for women and men and for those of different parities. The results suggest that those with high career importance and those who expect or perceive a negative effect of children on the career are more likely to have unstable positive intentions. Although fertility preferences are shown to be somewhat unstable, no relevant relationships can be found. The differences between the findings on men and women regarding relevant determinants and direction of the relationships are unexpectedly small. Childless individuals are as likely to hold unstable preferences and intentions as parents.