Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The budgeting process is an integral part of the annual business cycle of most organisations. The budget consists of numerous uncertain inputs, which are frequently used to produce a single EBIT figure. This implies that there is a risk of not achieving the budget that is not quantified and apparent from the prepared budget. In this report, the differences between the budgets of two business units of Exxaro Resources were analysed to gain a better understanding of the information hidden beyond the figures quoted on the surface. The budgets of Exxaro KZN Sands, a heavy minerals producer, and Zincor, a zinc refinery, were analysed to compare the respective risk approach of each. Simplified deterministic models were first constructed that contained the most important budget risk drivers. These were validated with comparisons to the official budgets. Historical actual data from 2006 and 2007 was then obtained from the business archives for the risk drivers. Probability distributions were then generated that fit the distributions of the historical data. These risk distributions were then used as input variables in a Monte Carlo simulation, performed in Crystal Ball. The EBIT for each business was thus simulated as a probability distribution. The simulation showed that the two business units applied very different approaches to budget risk. The actual budgeted EBIT of Exxaro KZN Sands of a loss of R167 579 945 had a more than 99% chance of being exceeded, showing a very conservative, worst case approach to budgeting. Zincor had only a 29% probability of exceeding their budgeted EBIT of R202 783 091, and incorporated a much larger risk of not achieving EBIT into the budget. The budgets of both business units were not suitable for the most important functions of budgeting, namely target setting, strategic planning and valuation of the business. It is recommended that Exxaro implements a procedure to standardise the risk approach to budgeting in the organisation. The budget process must firstly have guidelines to indicate how risk drivers’ values should be chosen for the official budget. Recommendations regarding average values, best three months or any other methodology will ensure that different business units follow a comparable approach. Secondly, Monte Carlo simulation must be performed on simplified business models. The KPI trees currently being used for continuous improvement provide a base model for this purpose. The Monte Carlo simulation will provide a more sophisticated and quantified analysis of risk, and give a further indication of the inherent variability of a specific business unit. Lastly, scrutiny of the Monte Carlo can indicate the biggest drivers of risk. Measures can then be implemented to better understand, or reduce, the variability of the main risk drivers. This will lead to more accurate budgeting, and a better understanding of the inherent budget risk. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die begrotingsproses is ‘n integrale deel van die jaarlikse besigheidsiklus van meeste organisasies. Die begroting bestaan uit etlike onseker insette, maar word meestal gebruik om ‘n enkele syfer vir inkomste te bereken. Dit beteken dat daar ‘n risiko is dat die begroting nie behaal gaan word nie, wat nie duidelik na vore tree in die begroting nie. In hierdie verslag word die verskille tussen die begrotings van twee besigheidseenhede van Exxaro Resources geannaliseer om insig te verkry rakende die inligting versteek agter die ooglopende getalle. Die begrotings van Exxaro KZN Sands, ‘n swaar minerale produsent, en Zincor, ‘n zink rafinadery, is geannaliseer om die onderskye risikobenaderings te vergelyk. Die eerste stap was om vereenvoudigde deterministiese modelle te bou wat die belangrikste begrotingsrisikodrywers bevat het. Die modelle is gevalideer deur die winste te vergelyk met die amptelike besigheidsbegrotings. Historiese data van 2006 en 2007 is versamel van die risikodrywers. Verdelings van waarskynlikheid is toe gekies wat die historiese data beskryf het. Die verdelings is gebruik as inset veranderlikes in ‘n Monte Carlo simulasie, gedoen in Crystal Ball. Die wins van elke besigheid is dan as ‘n waarskynlikheidsverdeling gegenereer. Die simulasie het aangetoon dat die twee besighede uiteenlopende benaderings tot begrotingsrisiko het. Die begrote verlies van R167 579 945 van Exxaro KZN Sands het ‘n hoër as 99% kans gehad om behaal te word. Dit dui op ‘n uiters konserwatiewe benadering, met die mees pessimistiese waardes vir risiko drywers in die begroting. Zincor het sleg ‘n 29% waarskynlikheid gewys om die begrote wins van R202 783 091 te behaal, en het aansienlik meer risiko in die begroting ingebou. Beide die benaderings was nie geskik vir meeste van die funksies waarvoor begrotings gebruik word nie, naamlik doelwitstelling, strategiese beplanning en waardasie van die besigheid. Dit word aanbeveel dat Exxaro ‘n prosedure implementeer om die risikobenadering te standariseer. Die begrotingsproses moet eerstens riglyne hê rakende die benadering tot risikodrywers. Daar moet aanbeveel word of gemiddelde waardes, beste drie maande of ‘n ander benadering gevolg moet word, om seker te maak dat verskillende besigheidseenhede dit vergelykbaar uitvoer. Tweedens moet Monte Carlo simulasie gedoen word op vereenvoudigde besigheids modelle. Die KPI bome wat tans vir deurlopende verbetering gebruik word is ‘n ideale basis vir die proses. Die Monte Carlo simulasie bied ‘n meer kwantifiseerbare benadering tot risiko analise, en dui ook aan wat die verwagte afwyking in ‘n besigheid se inkomste is. Laastens gee die Monte Carlo simulasie ‘n aanduiding oor wat die groot risikodrywers in die besigheid is. Stappe kan dan geimplimenteer word om die risikos te bestuur. Die resultaat sal meer akurate begrotings wees, asook meer insig in die inherente risiko in die begroting.

<p>The study seeks to establish the state of infrastructure management system, pertaining to electricity distribution, as an example of policy implementation.</p>

<p>In South Africa, municipal councils are accorded a legal status and authority of a deliberative legislative body. This is considered critical for the municipal council to establish appropriate structures, processes and systems for effective oversight, particularly, oversight of budget execution. However, indications are that, the current legal and institutional measures need to be strengthened to enable municipal council to exercise oversight of the budget execution. Literature review conducted in this study highlighted executive dominance, lack of technical capacity, lack of access to relevant information and partisan attitude as key factors constraining elected representatives in general from exercising oversight of budget execution. In addition, the review identified institutional and behavioural criteria as the normative framework within which to evaluate the effectiveness of the current legal and institutional measures for oversight of budget execution in South African municipalities.</p>

<p>The study seeks to establish the state of infrastructure management system, pertaining to electricity distribution, as an example of policy implementation.</p>

<p>In South Africa, municipal councils are accorded a legal status and authority of a deliberative legislative body. This is considered critical for the municipal council to establish appropriate structures, processes and systems for effective oversight, particularly, oversight of budget execution. However, indications are that, the current legal and institutional measures need to be strengthened to enable municipal council to exercise oversight of the budget execution. Literature review conducted in this study highlighted executive dominance, lack of technical capacity, lack of access to relevant information and partisan attitude as key factors constraining elected representatives in general from exercising oversight of budget execution. In addition, the review identified institutional and behavioural criteria as the normative framework within which to evaluate the effectiveness of the current legal and institutional measures for oversight of budget execution in South African municipalities.</p>

Concerns have long been raised about the conduct and accountability of charitable organisations, particularly the adequacy of reporting and oversight mechanisms. Consequently, charities and the institutions that monitor the sector are under increasing pressure to demonstrate their legitimacy. This thesis focuses on the ways in which risk is operationalised by the Scottish Charity Regulator and experienced by charities. In particular, it examines the nature, extent, determinants and outcomes of four types of risk: complaints concerning charity conduct, regulatory action in response to a complaint, financial vulnerability, and triggering accountability concerns. The thesis begins with a detailed review of the overlapping literatures of risk, regulation and charity theory, and the development of a contextual framework for guiding the empirical work. The thesis draws on contemporary large-scale administrative social science data derived from the regulator, supported by modest use of primary social survey and qualitative data. Findings from the four empirical chapters provide evidence that the risks explored in this research are uncommon for individual charities but are a persistent feature of the sector as a whole, and vary in predictable ways across certain organisational characteristics. The results also reveal the concern of charities with financial risks, their willingness to demonstrate transparency regarding their actions (particularly in response to complaints), and the perceived lack of regulatory burden. The thesis makes an original contribution in the form of new empirical knowledge about the charity sector, in particular through the use of large-scale administrative social science data to ‘peer under the hood’ and shine a light on aspects of charity behaviour that are often overlooked. The thesis concludes with a reflection on the key findings and comments on potential areas for future research.

This study examined the impact of financial liberalisation on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period 1980 to 2010. A vector error correction model was used to determine the short run and long run effects of financial liberalisation on economic growth in South Africa. The other explanatory variables considered in this study were government expenditure, investment ratio, public expenditure on education and trade openness. Results from this study revealed that financial liberalisation, government expenditure and public expenditure on education have a positive impact on economic growth while trade openness negatively affects economic growth in South Africa. Policy recommendations were made using these results.

This study focuses on the effectiveness of audit committees in public entities, specifically schedule 3A entities, which are governed by the PFMA. It is clear that the audit committee cannot operate on its own if it wishes to be effective. Management, Internal Audit and External Audit (Auditor General of South Africa) all play significant roles in the effectiveness of the audit committee. Internal Audit and the Auditor General are assurance providers for the audit committee and therefore play an even bigger role in its effectiveness. The independence of these assurance providers is vital, as the audit committee relies on them to obtain an independent view of the effectiveness of controls within the entities. / Graduate School of Business Leadership

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / In South Africa, municipal councils are accorded a legal status and authority of a deliberative legislative body. This is considered critical for the municipal council to establish appropriate structures, processes and systems for effective oversight, particularly, oversight of budget execution. However, indications are that, the current legal and institutional measures need to be strengthened to enable municipal council to exercise oversight of the budget execution. Literature review conducted in this study highlighted executive dominance, lack of technical capacity, lack of access to relevant information and partisan attitude as key factors constraining elected representatives in general from exercising oversight of budget execution. In addition, the review identified institutional and behavioural criteria as the normative framework within which to evaluate the effectiveness of the current legal and institutional measures for oversight of budget execution in South African municipalities. / South Africa

Masters in Public Administration - MPA / The study seeks to establish the state of infrastructure management system, pertaining to electricity distribution, as an example of policy implementation.