The interest in sustainable forms of energy is being driven by the anticipated scarcity of traditional fossil fuels over the coming decades. There is also a growing concern about the effects of fossil fuel emissions on human health and the environment. Many sources of renewable energy are being researched and implemented for power production. In particular, wind power generation by horizontal- and vertical-axis wind turbines is very popular. Vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) have a relative construction simplicity compared to horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs). However, VAWTs present specific challenges that may hinder their performance. For instance, they are strongly affected by dynamic stall. A significant part of the kinetic energy contained in the oncoming wind is lost in swirl and vortices. As a result, VAWTs have lower power production compared to HAWTs. First, the present work is aimed at the study of the aerodynamics of straight-bladed VAWTs (SB-VAWTs). Empirical calculations are conducted in a preliminary work. Then a two-dimensional double multiple streamtube (DMST) approach supported by a two-dimensional numerical study is implemented. The dynamic stall and aerodynamic performance of the rotor are investigated. A VAWT-fitted dynamic stall model is implemented. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are conducted to serve as reference for the DMST calculations. This three-pronged approach allows us to efficiently explore multiple configurations. The dynamic stall phenomenon is identified as a primary cause of performance loss. The results in this section validate the DMST model as a good replacement for CFD analysis in early phase design provided that a good dynamic stall model is used. After having identify the primary cause of performance loss, the goal is to investigate the use to dual-element blades for alleviating the effect of dynamic stall, thereby improving the performance of the rotor. The desirable airfoil characteristics are defined and a parametric analysis conducted. In the present study the parameters consists of the size of the blade elements, the space between them, and their relative orientation. The performance of the rotor is calculated and compared to the baseline. The results highlight the preeminence of the two-element configuration over the single-element provided that the adequate parametric study is conducted beforehand. A performance enhancement is obtained over a large range of tip speed ratios. The starting characteristics and the operation stability are also improved. Finally, an economic analysis is conducted to determine the cost of energy and thus the financial viability of such a project. The Great Coast of Senegal is selected as site of operation. The energy need and sources of this region are presented along with its wind energy potential. The cost evaluation shows the economic viability by comparing the cost of energy to the current energy market prices.

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T16:05:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Barbara_Zanini.pdf: 2626172 bytes, checksum: a3d5dcb97ebbfb3aef2ce6349805e021 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-08 / This study aimed to analyze the economic and financial viability of the company Alfa and point intervention scenarios. The methodology used to conduct this study was to collect and analyze data qualitatively and quantitatively. The collection and qualitative analysis was done by means of semi-structured interviews with the kind owner applying as a diagnostic tool SWOT analysis and Business Model Canvas frame. The quantitative analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet with the application of the financial evaluation techniques with them the Net Present Value (NPV), the Profitability Index (IL), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), the Time return on invested capital (Payback) and, finally, the Scenario Analysis. The results showed that the way has been carrying out its activities, the Alfa company is not viable economically and financially, since the financial ratios indicated that the company would be viable in a growth scenario of 10% per year difficult situation to occur in the current economic scenario. Presenting the results for the business it chose to sell the business. In the present study were used deterministic methods, which do not consider the uncertainties of the market and future scenarios. So, for future research, using methods not deterministic is suggested as methods of Monte Carlo and Fuzzy Logic / Este estudo teve o objetivo de analisar a viabilidade econômica e financeira da empresa Alfa e apontar cenários de intervenção. A metodologia utilizada para a realização desse trabalho foi a coleta e análise de dados de forma qualitativa e quantitativa. A coleta e análise qualitativa se deu por meio de entrevistas do tipo semiestruturada com o proprietário aplicando como ferramenta de diagnóstico a análise SWOT e o quadro Business Model Canvas. A análise quantitativa foi elaborada através de planilha no Microsoft Excel® com a aplicação das técnicas de avaliação financeira sendo elas o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), o Índice de Lucratividade (IL), a Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR), o Tempo de Retorno do capital investido (Payback) e, por fim, a Análise de Cenários. Os resultados mostraram que, da maneira como vem executando suas atividades, a empresa Alfa não é viável econômica e financeiramente, uma vez que os índices financeiros apontaram que a empresa seria viável num cenário de crescimento de 10% ao ano, situação difícil de ocorrer no cenário econômico atual. Ao apresentar os resultados para o empresário o mesmo optou por vender o negócio. No presente estudo foram utilizados métodos determinísticos, os quais não consideram as incertezas do mercado e dos cenários futuros. Por isso, para pesquisas futuras, sugere-se o uso de métodos não determinísticos tal como os métodos de Monte Carlo e a Lógica Fuzzy

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-01T17:54:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2008-07-15. Added 1 bitstream(s) on 2016-04-01T18:00:18Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 000577402.pdf: 782786 bytes, checksum: aeee0a8ffec3f3ca18b09361308fb3bd (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Esta dissertação tem como finalidade, apresentar e comparar dados quantitativos relativos à estação de tratamento de esgotos situada no interior de São Paulo, mais especificamente na cidade de Lençóis Paulista. A proposta do presente trabalho é apresentação de dados financeiros, particularmente retorno e risco do projeto. Dados esses que demonstram também o montante investido, e ainda, as receitas e despesas inerentes ao funcionamento do mesmo. Serão utilizados métodos de análise investimentos tradicionalmente conhecidos como valor presente líquido, taxa interna de retorno e prazo médio de retorno. Para o cálculo da probabilidade de risco do projeto, a distribuição normal será a ferramenta utilizada. É senso comum que um dos maiores fatores de degradação da qualidade da água é justamente a poluição resultante do lançamento dos esgotos sanitários coletados em corpos d'água, o que justifica a necessidade do tratamento desses esgotos, de modo a reduzir a carga poluidora antes de sua disposição final. Segundo dados do Governo Federal apenas 20,2% do esgoto sanitário coletado nos domicílios brasileiros recebem tratamento e só uma pequena parcela tem destinação final sanitariamente adequada no meio (IBGE, 2003). Desta forma, o presente estudo deste problema contemporâneo, demonstrou quantitativamente que a implantação de uma ETE é viável financeiramente, como demonstra os cálculos do valor presente líquido (VPL), taxa interna de retorno (TIR) e o prazo médio de retorno do investimento (payback). Esses métodos de avaliação de investimento foram sensibilizados com uma série que envolve a probabilidade de crescimento populacional, o que possibilitou calcular o risco do projeto, cujo percentual confirma a viabilidade do projeto, em razão do risco calculado ser muito baixo. / This dissertation has the purpose to present and compare quantitative data about waste treatment station, placed in Lençóis Paulista city, in the state of Sao Paulo. At first, this work had the intent to present financial and environmental data, however, the project not in operation, it showed only financial data. These data demonstrate the amount of money invested, as also, the revenues and expenses inherent of operation. This work used the traditional investment analysis method, like net present value, interested rate return and payback. To calculate the project risk probability, it was used normal distribution. The waste water collected is fundamental to guarantee the population's life quality. However, one of the major reason to quality's water degradation is the pollution resulted of throwing waste waters in creeks, rivers and others flow waters which justify the need to treat them, reducing the amount of pollution before their final disposal. According to Brazilian's Government statistics, only 20,2% of waste water from brazilian's homes receives proper treatment, and just a small quantity is returned in sanitary way to the environment. (IBGE, 2003). In such a way, this study esposes a contemporary problem, demonstrating quantitatively, that the implementation of ETE is financially viable, like demonstrated calculation of the net present value (NPV), internal interested rate (IRR), and payback. That investments methods evaluation was sensibility through an probability series about population growth, that make possible calculated the project risk, wich result confirm the viability of the project.

Orientador: Manoel Henrique Salgado / Banca: Jair Wagner de Souza manfrinato / Banca: Flávio Ferrari Aragon / Resumo: Esta dissertação tem como finalidade, apresentar e comparar dados quantitativos relativos à estação de tratamento de esgotos situada no interior de São Paulo, mais especificamente na cidade de Lençóis Paulista. A proposta do presente trabalho é apresentação de dados financeiros, particularmente retorno e risco do projeto. Dados esses que demonstram também o montante investido, e ainda, as receitas e despesas inerentes ao funcionamento do mesmo. Serão utilizados métodos de análise investimentos tradicionalmente conhecidos como valor presente líquido, taxa interna de retorno e prazo médio de retorno. Para o cálculo da probabilidade de risco do projeto, a distribuição normal será a ferramenta utilizada. É senso comum que um dos maiores fatores de degradação da qualidade da água é justamente a poluição resultante do lançamento dos esgotos sanitários coletados em corpos d'água, o que justifica a necessidade do tratamento desses esgotos, de modo a reduzir a carga poluidora antes de sua disposição final. Segundo dados do Governo Federal apenas 20,2% do esgoto sanitário coletado nos domicílios brasileiros recebem tratamento e só uma pequena parcela tem destinação final sanitariamente adequada no meio (IBGE, 2003). Desta forma, o presente estudo deste problema contemporâneo, demonstrou quantitativamente que a implantação de uma ETE é viável financeiramente, como demonstra os cálculos do valor presente líquido (VPL), taxa interna de retorno (TIR) e o prazo médio de retorno do investimento (payback). Esses métodos de avaliação de investimento foram sensibilizados com uma série que envolve a probabilidade de crescimento populacional, o que possibilitou calcular o risco do projeto, cujo percentual confirma a viabilidade do projeto, em razão do risco calculado ser muito baixo. / Abstract: This dissertation has the purpose to present and compare quantitative data about waste treatment station, placed in Lençóis Paulista city, in the state of Sao Paulo. At first, this work had the intent to present financial and environmental data, however, the project not in operation, it showed only financial data. These data demonstrate the amount of money invested, as also, the revenues and expenses inherent of operation. This work used the traditional investment analysis method, like net present value, interested rate return and payback. To calculate the project risk probability, it was used normal distribution. The waste water collected is fundamental to guarantee the population's life quality. However, one of the major reason to quality's water degradation is the pollution resulted of throwing waste waters in creeks, rivers and others flow waters which justify the need to treat them, reducing the amount of pollution before their final disposal. According to Brazilian's Government statistics, only 20,2% of waste water from brazilian's homes receives proper treatment, and just a small quantity is returned in sanitary way to the environment. (IBGE, 2003). In such a way, this study esposes a contemporary problem, demonstrating quantitatively, that the implementation of ETE is financially viable, like demonstrated calculation of the net present value (NPV), internal interested rate (IRR), and payback. That investments methods evaluation was sensibility through an probability series about population growth, that make possible calculated the project risk, wich result confirm the viability of the project. / Mestre

Submitted by Neusa Fagundes (neusa.fagundes@unioeste.br) on 2017-10-05T17:33:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Leandro_Scherer2017.pdf: 3949997 bytes, checksum: e94649bbd81f9c9be04c36962dbf465d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-05T17:33:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Leandro_Scherer2017.pdf: 3949997 bytes, checksum: e94649bbd81f9c9be04c36962dbf465d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-10 / The objective of this study was to analyze the strategic and financial viability for biogas production from swine manure in the municipality of Itaipulândia. The methodology used was the qualitative analysis with a single case study. Data were collected through interviews, use of diverse documents and research, comparing with the theoretical basis selected. The strategic tools used were: Porter's Five Forces; SWOT Analysis; Analysis of Scenarios and the Financial Indicators: Payback, NPV, IRR and IL. Using the Five Porter Forces, it was shown that biogas presented financial advantages over current competing sources (wood chips, electricity, diesel), and that, currently, there is no evidence for new entrants in this market. In SWOT Analysis it was concluded that strengths and opportunities were superior to weaknesses and threats. In the scenario analysis, three situations were considered: pessimistic scenario, probable and optimistic. In the analysis of the financial indicators, it was concluded that the project was not financially viable in the four indicators, mainly due to the high investment. In a second analysis, considering the possibility of a 50,0% subsidy by the Itaipulândia City Hall, the project was financially viable, with Payback of 14 years and 6 months; NPV of R$450,701.12; IRR of 11.9% and IL of 1.14. The justification for the subsidy was based on environmental gains, due to the need to treat swine manure, social gains, income generation, improvements in the quality of life of local society, as well as serve as an example of sustainable energy generation for other regions Brazil and other countries. / Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar a viabilidade estratégica e financeira para a produção do biogás a partir dos dejetos suínos no município de Itaipulândia. A metodologia utilizada foi a análise qualitativa com estudo de caso único. Os dados foram coletados através de entrevistas, utilização de documentos diversos e pesquisas, confrontando com a base teórica selecionada. As ferramentas estratégicas utilizadas foram: As Cinco Forças de Porter; Análise SWOT; Análise de Cenários e os Indicadores Financeiros: Payback, VPL, TIR e ÍL. Ao utilizar-se das Cincos Forças de Porter, evidenciou-se que o biogás apresentou vantagens financeiras em relação as fontes concorrentes atuais (cavaco de lenha, energia elétrica, diesel), e que, atualmente, não há evidências para novos entrantes neste mercado. Na Análise SWOT concluiu-se que as forças e oportunidades foram superiores às fraquezas e ameaças. Na análise de cenário foram consideradas três situações: cenário pessimista, provável e otimista. Na análise dos indicadores financeiros, concluiu-se que o projeto se apresentou inviável financeiramente nos quatro indicadores, principalmente, devido ao alto investimento. Numa segunda análise, considerando a possibilidade de subsídio de 50,0% pela Prefeitura Municipal de Itaipulândia, o projeto se apresentou viável financeiramente, com Payback de 14 anos e 6 meses; VPL de R$450.701,12; TIR de 11,9% e IL de 1,14. A justificativa para o subsídio foi baseada ganhos ambientais, devido a necessidade do tratamento dos dejetos de suínos, ganhos sociais, geração de renda, melhorias na qualidade de vida da sociedade local, bem como, servirá como exemplo de geração de energia sustentável para outras regiões do Brasil e outros países.

There is a need for an efficient adjustment of the energy supply system towards renewable energy resources in the near future. This raises the question whether it is financially efficient to repower an onshore wind turbine or wind farm in operation with respect to specific surrounding conditions? To this purpose, the objective of this Thesis is a quantitative analysis of a wind power project repowering addressing certain legislative parameters, varying economic factors and WT models respectively. To enable this analysis, a case-study considering a number of hypothetical scenarios for repowering a wind farm in Germany has been applied. The scenarios address in particular the widely implemented limitation in overall building heights of 100m depending upon varying economical parameters. Nevertheless, this case-study applies three different WT models whereof one model matches the legislations and the other two models exceed the legislations by a varying degree in order to evaluate a potential productivity growth. The varying economic conditions are represented by a base case projection applying average wind power construction costs and financial rates whereas a best case and worst case projection consider deviating interest rates, capacity factors, investment and O&M costs respectively.   The economic calculations together with the determination of the capacity factor with respect to each WT model are performed by utilising the decision aid tool RETScreen. The results obtained by this case-study show versatile economic and technological performance. WT models of minor size addressing in particular local existing legislation regarding the limitation of overall height which must not exceed 100m are inefficient regardless of varying economic conditions. Exceeding the limitation, WT models provide a significant increase in performance and thus return positive economic results independent of varying economic conditions. The main conclusion is that existing local legislations based on previous considerations from the past but which no longer correspond to the state of technology have to be questioned in general or have to be mitigated by subsidy instruments in order to support a generation shift in technology before the end of life of operational wind farms and thus promptly increase efficiency by repowering.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-28T20:19:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2009 - Paula Moreira Nardelli.pdf: 811393 bytes, checksum: 94ff057d54b6ae755cb3caf6b07389b1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-03-13 / The main objective of this work is to analyze the economical and financial feasibility of an agribusiness projects using the Real Options Theory. The text presents a review of the traditional methods generally applied to project evaluation, presenting its problems, restrictions and limitations. It also presents the Real Options Theory considering its main purposes, concepts, and its ability to quantify the flexibility present in investment projects, that leaved this theory to be alternatively used as an important tool to investment analysis. Institutions generally use traditional methods of project analysis, namely Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Besides that, the real efficiency of these methods is nowadays being questioned, as the application of these methodologies could leave to bad investment decisions. The main reason is that these methods ignore two important characteristics: a) irreversibility b) the possibility to postponing the investing decision. These particularities, as well as the uncertainty about the future among other similarities allows the investment opportunity to be in many aspects considered analogous to a financial option. A company that has an irreversible investment opportunity takes an option, that is, it has the right - but not the obligation - to buy an asset (the project) in the future paying the current price (the investing). In order to apply these concepts, this work presents a case study that is an agribusiness project to fruit processing that produces dehydrated fruits, pulps, juices, jams and candies as its final products. The evaluation aims to demonstrate the value of operational flexibilities presented by this project, such as delaying the project implementation. These flexibilities will be evaluated using the theory of Real Options in discrete time, adopting the methodology proposed by Copeland & Antikarov (2001), which adds the Real Options of the project to the standard discounted cash flow method. The achieved results using the Expanded Net Present Value (ENPV), considering the real options, in the fourth year, was R$ 891.877 million, an increase of 207% over the traditional Net Present Value (NPV). / O objetivo geral desta disserta??o consiste em analisar a viabilidade econ?mico-financeira de um projeto agroindustrial, atrav?s da Teoria de Op??es Reais (TOR). Fez-se uma revis?o sobre os m?todos tradicionais de avalia??o de projetos; sobre os problemas, restri??es e limita??es ao seu uso; e sobre a Teoria de Op??es Reais, seus principais usos, conceitos, e sua habilidade em quantificar a flexibilidade presente nos projetos de investimento, que a tem tornado uma alternativa no processo de an?lise de investimentos. As institui??es usam, em geral, m?todos tradicionais de an?lise de projetos (VPL e TIR). A efici?ncia desses m?todos vem sendo fortemente questionada, a sua aplica??o pode induzir a decis?es de investimentos equivocadas. A raz?o ? que eles ignoram duas caracter?sticas importantes dessas decis?es: a) a irreversibilidade e b) a possibilidade de adiamento da decis?o de investir. Essas caracter?sticas, juntamente com a incerteza sobre o futuro, fazem com que a oportunidade de investimento seja an?loga a uma op??o financeira. Uma empresa com uma oportunidade de investimento irrevers?vel assume uma op??o, ou seja, tem o direito - mas n?o a obriga??o - de comprar um ativo (o projeto) no futuro, a um pre?o de exerc?cio (o investimento). Com o intuito de aplicar estes conceitos, ser? realizado um estudo de caso, que consiste em um projeto agroindustrial de processamento de frutas, no qual se pretende produzir sucos, polpas, gel?ias, doces e frutas desidratadas. A avalia??o pretende demonstrar o valor das flexibilidades operacionais que esse projeto apresenta, como adiar a implementa??o do projeto. Essas flexibilidades ser?o avaliadas com a utiliza??o da teoria das Op??es Reais em tempo discreto. Para isso, adotou-se a metodologia proposta por Copeland & Antikarov (2001), a qual adiciona ? avalia??o tradicional de Fluxo de Caixa Descontado as Op??es Reais que o projeto possui. O resultado obtido para o valor presente l?quido expandido do projeto, considerando as op??es reais, no quarto ano, foi de R$ 891.877 mil, um aumento de 207% em rela??o ao valor presente tradicional.

Environmental concerns have led to a rapid increase in renewable energy development and production as the global demand for electricity continues to increase. The intermittent and uncertain nature of electricity generation from renewable sources, such as wind and solar, however, create significant challenges in maintaining power system reliability at reasonable costs. Energy storage and smart-grid technologies are perceived to provide potential solutions to these challenges in modern power systems of different sizes. This work investigates the opportunity to incorporate energy storage in microgrids with renewable energy production, as well as applying smart microgrid management techniques to reduce the lifetime costs while maintaining an acceptable level of reliability. A microgrid consisting of a 5 home community with generation supplied by two propane generators to meet the “N-1” reliability criterion is used as the base case scenario. Actual load data of typical homes is obtained from the industry partner. An equivalent loss of load expectation criterion is used to benchmark the acceptable reliability level. A model is developed to calculate the lifetime operational cost of the base case scenario which is used to assess the benefit of the addition of renewable energy sources, energy storage, and smart microgrid management techniques. A MATLAB program is developed to assess the 20 year operational costs of various combinations of renewable energy sources and battery energy storage, which will be considered the lifetime of the system. The combination of generation and storage which yields the lowest lifetime operational cost is defined as the optimized microgrid, and is used as a basis to determine if additional savings are realized by the implementation of a microgrid operated by a Smart Microgrid Management System (SMMS). The conceptual layout of the proposed SMMS is presented along with identified methods of utilizing in-home thermal storage. The SMMS mechanism is discussed along with proposed functionality, potential methods of employment, and associated development and implementation costs. The microgrid operated by the SMMS is assessed, and its lifetime operational cost is presented and contrasted against the base case microgrid and the optimized microgrid. A power system reliability evaluation of the proposed microgrids are conducted using a probabilistic method to ensure that reliability is not sacrificed by the implementation of a cost-minimized microgrid. A sequential Monte Carlo simulation model is developed to assess the power system reliability of the various microgrid configuration cases. The functionality of this model is verified using an existing reliability assessment program. The results from the presented studies show that the implementation of renewable energy sources, energy storage, and smart microgrid management techniques are an effective way of reducing the operational cost of a remote microgrid while increasing its power system reliability.

The basic aim of this dissertation is to evaluate the predictive ability and accuracy of the existing and until now created corporate models predicting financial distress and verification of multinational force models. Partial goals must be filled to meet the basic objective and therefore the theoretical part is especially mapping models used and developed in the Czech Republic and other European economies, of which the emphasis is primarily on the former transition economies. These now post-transition economies have passed a similar political and economic development as the Czech Republic, and therefore prediction models created and used there could be transferable to the environment of the Czech economy and Czech companies whose financial health and conditions are assessed. The practical part is based on the author's own research, which is dedicated to the evaluation of prediction models when applied to Czech business entities differentiated according to belonging to a particular industry branch. During the models' evaluation the emphasis is on the fact whether they are national (Czech) or foreign models.

Transitioning to a low-carbon energy system includes deploying renewables such as wind power, which has been installed in Sweden since the 1980s. After a 20 to 25-year lifetime, a wind turbine´s end-of-life options come into play, therefore many of the turbines deployed in Sweden prior to 2011 will reach this mark by 2035. To utilize a site´s wind resource in the best possible way, full repowering is considered in an assessment of seven case studies in Swedish municipalities with the highest deployed pre-2011 wind power capacity. Each case study uses various turbine models to evaluate full repowering scenarios. The most profitable scenarios are estimated through the investment over production (I/P) value and the break-even electricity price. The identified municipalities’ comprehensive plans are reviewed in terms of repowering strategies and wind power deployment guidelines. Only three out of seven investigated municipalities consider repowering in comprehensive plans, with Gotland being best prepared in terms of repowering strategies. Strömsund and Eslöv mention repowering in their comprehensive plans with no specific guidelines. Restrictive policies were identified in the municipality of Laholm, where the maximum total height of turbines is 150m, decreasing the potential annual energy production of an analyzed case study by 64%. The municipalities of Falkenberg, Laholm, Piteå, and Åsele do not include repowering in their comprehensive plans. All the simulated repowering scenarios increased the annual energy production of the identified sites by up to 73%, lowered the number of turbines by up to 70%, decreased the wake losses by up to 77%, and decreased the noise level by 10% while increasing the potential shadow flicker by 19%. The results of the study indicate a possible divide between the intention of the municipalities of Eslöv, Strömsund, and Åsele to maximize energy production from wind power at each exploited site on the one hand and the business cases that developers face on the other. The results suggest the turbines which increase energy production the most at already developed sites, are not necessarily the ones with the lowest investment over production (I/P) value or the lowest break-even electricity price.