Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / Sabe-se que a Ãgua à um recurso essencial à sobrevivÃncia da humanidade. Gestores ambientais do mundo inteiro vÃm chamando atenÃÃo para o problema da sua escassez e mà gestÃo. O presente trabalho destacou que no Nordeste Brasileiro, particularmente no semiÃrido, a escassez hÃdrica acentua-se por conta das caracterÃsticas peculiares que o diferem de outros locais, tais como: a irregularidade pluviomÃtrica e a mà distribuiÃÃo das chuvas no tempo e no espaÃo. Desenvolveram-se modelos matemÃticos de previsÃo de vazÃes sazonais/interanuais que incorporam as informaÃÃes climÃticas, bem como a metodologia de incorporaÃÃo dessas previsÃes na operaÃÃo e gestÃo de hidrossistemas e no estudo de controle de cheias. Esses modelos basearam-se na metodologia dos K-vizinhos desenvolvida por Souza Filho e Lall, e nos modelos estatÃsticos de regressÃo. Apresentou-se, ainda, o software AcquaNet como mecanismo de auxÃlio na operaÃÃo de sistemas de reservatÃrios. Aplicou-se a metodologia em reservatÃrios do Estado do Cearà e do Nordeste do Brasil. Concluiu-se que a inclusÃo da previsÃo de vazÃes na operaÃÃo de sistemas de reservatÃrios pode ser um instrumento eficaz na gestÃo dos recursos hÃdricos à medida que agrega a este processo mais confiabilidade e qualidade, e, desde que corretamente utilizada, pode aumentar a geraÃÃo de capital do Estado. / It is known that water is a resource essential to human survival. Environmental managers around the world have been calling attention to the problem of water scarcity and mismanagement. This study highlighted that in the Northeast of Brazil, particularly in semi-arid, water scarcity is accentuated because of the peculiar characteristics that differentiate it from other places, such as the irregularity and poor distribution of rain in time and space. Mathematical models of seasonal/interannual streamflow forecasting incorporating weather information were developed, as well as the methodology for incorporating these forecasts in the operation, management and study of water systems and flood control. These models were based on the methodology of the K-neighbors developed by Souza Filho and Lall, and on the statistical regression models. The software AcquaNet was also introduced as a mechanism to aid in the operation of reservoir systems. The methodology was applied in reservoirs of the State of Cearà and the Northeast of Brazil. We conclude that the inclusion of streamflow forecasting in the operation of reservoir systems can be an effective tool in water management as this process adds more reliability and quality, and, if properly used, can increase the income generation of the State.

Este tese objetiva analisar sistemas complexos de drenagem urbana visando definir uma técnica de dimensionamento de obras de reservação. Nesta pesquisa, sistemas complexos de drenagem urbana são aqueles compostos por diversos reservatórios de detenção, distribuídos numa rede de canais formada por vários trechos. Este tipo de sistema é típico em megacidades. O dimensionamento das obras de reservação em redes complexas possui uma série de condicionantes, ou seja, ele é função de diversas variáveis, muitas delas de caráter aleatório. A principal delas é a chuva de projeto. Esta tese desenvolve uma técnica conjunta de simulação e de cenarização de chuvas com defasagem no tempo e no espaço para tratar a questão da variabilidade da precipitação de projeto. Do ponto de vista hidráulico, existem outras condicionantes para dimensionamento, dependendo do tipo de reservação adotada. Basicamente existem dois tipos de reservatórios para controle de cheias em cidades, os reservatórios on-line e os reservatórios off-line, cada um apresenta características próprias de desempenho que devem ser consideradas quando o sistema é dimensionado. Esta tese apresenta uma técnica de dimensionamento iterativa que permite compor um conjunto de reservatórios (on-line ou off-line) que atendem ao grau de proteção requerido para uma bacia urbana. Os métodos foram avaliados em bacias hipotéticas típicas de grandes cidades. Desse modo, uma série de variáveis foi contemplada, na tentativa de generalizar o método proposto. Os resultados mostraram a importância da cenarização da chuva de projeto. É praticamente inviável trabalhar hoje com as premissas clássicas para definir a chuva de projeto, a cenarização permite avaliar o desempenho do sistema segundo diferentes condições hidrológicas. Finalmente, ressalta-se que esta tese apresenta um enfoque novo de dimensionamento e que certamente irá requerer novas investigações e aperfeiçoamentos. Ela procura trazer à discussão a implementação de novos paradigmas para desenvolvimento de projetos no campo da drenagem urbana em grandes cidades. / This thesis aims to analyze urban drainage complex systems in order to define a technique for the design of detention ponds structures. In this study, Urban Drainage Complex Systems are those composed of several detention ponds, distributed in a network of channels formed by various reaches. This type of system is typical in megacities. The design of the reservation structures in complex networks has a number of constraints, in other words, it is a function of several variables, many of them are randomness. The main one is the design rainfall. This thesis develops a joint technical of simulation and the design rainfall scenario generation delayed in time and space to deal with the variability of design precipitation. From the hydrological point of view, there are other constraints for scaling, depending on the type of reservation adopted. There are basically two types of detention ponds for flood control in cities, on-line detention and off-line detention, each performance has its own characteristics that must be considered when the system is designed. This thesis presents an iterative design technique for composing a set of detention ponds (on-line or off-line) that satisfy the degree of protection required for an urban watershed. The methods were evaluated in hypothetical basins typical of large cities. Thus, a series of variables was included in an attempt to generalize the proposed method. The results showed the importance of design rainfall scenario generation. It is practically impossible to work today with the classical assumptions to define the design rainfall; the scenario generation allows evaluating system performance under different hydrological conditions. Finally, we emphasize that this thesis presents a new approach to sizing and it certainly will require further research and improvements. It seeks to bring the discussion to implementation of new paradigms for development projects in the field of urban drainage in large cities.

The Phongolo River floodplain in KwaZulu/Natal is a river-associated wetland which was subject to regular cycles of flooding in the past. The floods were associated with seasonal summer rainfall. Through the wet and dry cycles on the floodplain there was an alternation between the aquatic and terrestrial biomes. Many of the fishes on the floodplain are dependent on this cycle for their survival. The construction of the Pongolapoort Dam in 1969 has resulted in alterations to the timing, magnitudes and duration of the natural flooding events of the Phongolo River. This alteration has affected the fisheries. It is now necessary to simulate natural floods by artificial water releases from the dam. There are several demands on the water supply, so it has not always been possible to adhere to the natural flood regime. This necessitated the need for an integrated management programme to ensure the sustainability of the natural resources. A practical ecological model of the fishery was developed to determine an optimum flood release scenario for the floodplain. The relative abundances, distribution and species richness of the fishes were determined at various lakes and rivers on the floodplain. A community classification of the fishes was determined using TWINSPAN ordination. The potential yield of the fish at each site was calculated. Flood releases of varying magnitudes were simulated using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This information was combined in a model which can be used by resource managers to estimate the percentage species compositions of fishes at each of the lakes, and to compare the actual harvest to the potential calculated sustainable yields of fishes for various flood release regimes. Subsistence agriculture and other beneficial ecological information can be incorporated into the model to determine the effect of different flood release options for the Phongolo floodplain.

This thesis examines the influence of lithology on debris torrent occurrence. The analysis covers a thirty-year period in 80 supply-limited basins distributed in the 400 km2 Tsitika River watershed, on northern Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Two bedrock types occur in the watershed, the Igneous Intrusive and the extrusive Karmutsen formations, covering forty-nine and fifty-one percent respectively. The debris torrent source basins are unlogged. The frequency data were obtained in the field using dendrochronological evidence of debris torrents. Field data were compared with data derived from air photographs, the latter were found to be unrepresentative of debris torrent occurrence and were not used. All study basins were digitised from 1 : 20 000 Terrain Resource Inventory Maps (TRIM), and were characterised by selected morphometric parameters. Results show that geology exerts significant control over the temporal and spatial occurrence of debris torrents in the Tsitika watershed; the Karmutsen formation is more prolific. Geology also was found to exert significant control over the runout area and volume of debris torrents. Climate, morphometry and surficial materials do not appear to be confounding parameters. Differences in weathering rates, infiltration patterns and detrital grain-size distribution associated with the two bedrock types are believed to account for the differences in debris torrent behaviour. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate

There exists a federal-provincial programme for providing flood protection in the Lower Eraser Valley. An examination is made of the procedures for deciding upon applications for individual projects included in the Programme and an identification of when, the way, and the extent to which associated interests become involved in project decisions is made. The methodology involves three steps. The first step is to define the procedures followed by the administering agencies of the Programme and identify the stages during which affected interests become involved. The second step is to'identify the things which happen as these procedures are followed. Interviews with key officials in the provision system provide the information presented. The third step is to note particular case study examples in which certain patterns o'faagency interaction occurred. The only significant involvement of affected interests is after a commitmenttto provide flood protection has been made. Advocate interests (outside the lead agencies) do not play a prominent role in the decisions which are made. The accommodation of conditionally supportive interests has generally not been difficult. The accommodation of competitive interests is more difficult. When the losses to be imposed upon affected interests in general, and competitive interests in particular, are high, extensive negotiations take place in search of an equitable compromise solution. The adjustments made to accommodate affected interests are often made at a substantial additional cost to the Programme. That these additional costs may exceed the original assessment of benefits suggests affected interests should become involved at an earlier stage when commitments to provide protection are made on the basis of the associated benefits and costs. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate

The Chilliwack River flows through the Cascade Mountains until reaching a narrow gorge near Vedder Crossing where it flows onto the Fraser Lowlands and eventually meets the Fraser River. Below Vedder Crossing, the river is actively building an alluvial fan by depositing its sediment load of gravel and sand. This deposition has resulted in frequent channel shifts over the fan surface with the most recent migration occurring around 1894 when the river shifted down Vedder Creek. Over the last century the Vedder River has been undergoing very complex changes in response to changes in the incidence of severe floods, changes in sediment supply and interference from river training. Extensive channelization works carried out in the 1960's induced temporary degradation over part of the channel which was accompanied by rapid aggradation in the reach immediately downstream. This rapid channel adjustment ceased in less than 10 years. In 1975 a flood having a return period of about 10 years deposited 260,000 cubic yards of sediment onto the fan which increased the mean bedlevel by nearly 1 foot. By comparison, the average annual deposition rate was estimated to be 72,000 cubic yards per year. Based on bedload transport calculations, approximately 700,000 cubic yards of sediment could be deposited by a 50 year rainstorm flood. In order to provide long term flood control, either the upstream sediment supply will have to be reduced or dredging will have to be carried out on the lower river. It is not feasible to eliminate aggradation by transporting the incoming bedload through the system and into the Fraser River. Some strategies are considered which, by controlled dredging and training would maintain the channel permanently in its present position. More severe floods would be contained by set-back dikes. It is thought that, with care, these measures could be consistent with salmon habitat requirements. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Civil Engineering, Department of / Graduate

This study investigates flood characteristics and management strategies in the Lower Skeena River Region. Rivers in the region exhibit two annual flood seasons in which different types of floods occur. Typically, rivers tend to flood during spring freshet in May and June as a result of snowmelt runoff within the Skeena basin. However, intense and sustained rainstorms contribute to another type of flood in the fall months in the Lower Skeena Region. Although the most extensive and largest flood of record occurred as a result of regional snowmelt runoff in the spring of 1936, "the flood inflicting the greatest damage occurred in the fall of 1978 as a result of three days of continuous heavy rain. In contrast with the remainder of the Skeena basin where spring freshet floods are critical, fall floods in the Lower Skeena occur more frequently than spring floods and for the same return period are greater in magnitude. Despite the implementation of flood damage prevention measures in the Lower Skeena Region, flood damage continues to increase and this is largely the result of fall floods. Analysis of the meteorologic and hydrologic features of fall floods indicates important differences in the duration and pattern of flooding throughout the Lower Skeena as compared to spring freshet floods. The interval between the time when the possibility of a flood is known and when it actually occurs is shorter for fall floods, different properties are subject to flooding and the frequency of flooding of most flood prone areas is greater. This indicates the need for a different strategy to manage the flood problem. The current program of flood damage prevention measures in the Lower Skeena is based on the physical characteristics associated with spring freshet flooding. The existing approach in the region is part of a blanket strategy toward managing floods province-wide. The strategy relies almost entirely on nonstructural measures of flood forecasting, floodplain regulation and floodproofing. The design flood, with a 1 in 200 year return period adopted as a basis for the current strategy is derived from the features of the 1936 spring freshet flood. These measures provided no assistance in reducing damages during the fall flood of 1978. A framework for developing a comprehensive flood management strategy to handle fall floods is applied to New Remo, a Lower Skeena flood prone community. The strategy entails the following five steps: I Define the Spatial Distribution of Flood Damages II Design a Flood Forecasting Service III Design an Emergency Plan for Action During Floods IV Assess Remaining Practicable Alternatives for Reducing Flood Damage V Develop a Financing Policy for the Program Potentially feasible adjustments to the flood hazard in New Remo include; (l) flood forecasting, (2) emergency action, (3) floodproofing and (4) permanent evacuation of some homes. However, to develop an optimum combination of alternative adjustments will require site specific information on flood damage risk, which currently is not available for properties in New Remo. The flood management strategy developed for New Remo would be applicable to other communities in the Lower Skeena, prone to fall flooding. However, regional application of the approach requires tailoring the strategy according to the physical, social and economic features within each community affected by fall floods. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of / Graduate

Flooding poses one of the greatest natural hazard dangers to Canadians. As human populations increase and concentrate in areas vulnerable to floods, and uncertainty about future flood risk increases with the possibility of a changing climate, major urban communities, coastal settlements and communities located within floodplains are faced with an even greater risk of floods in the coming years. Canada's policies and practices towards flood control are best described as ad hoc, and have developed over the years in response to experiences with floods. No national scale flood damage reduction program exists, and there is currently no opportunity for Canadian homeowners to purchase flood insurance. This study specifically examines how a national mitigation strategy, focused mainly on non structural techniques could help decrease damages from floods in Canadian communities. The strategy proposed here is theoretically based in EPC and IBC suggestions for a greater national mitigation strategy, as well as IDNDR research, and federal, provincial and municipal goals for sustainable development and sound land use planning objectives. Ideally, a successful non structural flood mitigation strategy for Canada would address issues at the national scale, yet be implementable at the local level in accordance with community needs, risk characteristics, and local expertise. The strategy proposed here would maximize the efficiency of federal resources and private industry as well as allow local expertise and existing mitigation schemes to be formalized, bolstered and improved. There are three major components of the non structural flood mitigation strategy. Risk avoidance measures such as early warning systems, land use and resource planning and ecological conservation all work towards reducing the chances of a dangerous flood occurring. Risk spreading measures help communities deal with flood risks by improving equity and accountability, they include tax incentives, disaster financial assistance, and flood insurance. Lastly, vulnerability reduction measures help reduce damages if a flood were to strike, and these include enforcement of building codes and the maintenance of existing protective infrastructure. An integrated, non structural flood mitigation strategy would require basin-wide cooperation between all levels of government, citizens and the private sector. This strategy is also an opportunity for communities and individuals to meet goals of environmental conservation and sustainable development. The focus in this study lies on the mitigation tools, although it is the overall process of inserting the premise of mitigation into all land use and planning decision making processes that will be the key to successful flood mitigation strategies in Canadian communities. / Science, Faculty of / Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES), Institute for / Graduate

De part et d’autre de la Terre, on observe de plus en plus de phénomènes naturels dévastateurs, parmi lesquels les inondations constituent l’une des catastrophes les plus fréquentes. Ces dernières décennies d’importantes inondations ont été induites par les crues de rivières. Ces crues, dues à des pluies excessives ou aux eaux de ruissellement, causent sans cesse des pertes de vies humaines et des dégâts matériels importants. Pour remédier à ces problèmes, les réseaux hydrographiques sont de plus en plus équipés de moyens de détection de crues. Un facteur essentiel à la gestion de tels phénomènes est la réactivité. En effet, les gestionnaires des réseaux hydrographiques, dans ce genre de situation, doivent prendre rapidement des décisions importantes dans un contexte incertain, car la plupart de ces crues sont le fruit de phénomènes climatiques brusques, dont l’ampleur est difficile à évaluer avec précision. Nous proposons, dans ce mémoire, une méthode de gestion des crues dans des réseaux hydrographiques équipés de zones inondables contrôlées par des portes gravitationnelles. Dans un premier temps, nous avons modélisé notre méthode de gestion à l’aide d’un réseau de transport statique. Dans un second temps, nous l’avons enrichi en utilisant les réseaux de transport à retards dans le but de prendre en compte les temps de déplacement de la ressource gérée. Afin de pallier le problème de la taille importante des réseaux de transport à retards, nous avons élaboré un mécanisme de substitution combinant un réseau de transport statique réduit et une matrice de temporisation. De plus, ce mécanisme autorise la prise en compte des temps de transfert variables dépendant des débits, sans modification ni du réseau de transport, ni de la structure de la matrice de temporisation. Ce mécanisme permet donc une gestion simplifiée des temps de transferts, variables ou non. Avec ce mécanisme, l’évaluation du flot maximal à coût minimum, nous a permis, suivant les stratégies de gestion considérées, de consigner l’ouverture des portes des zones inondables afin d’écrêter la crue mais aussi afin de restituer cette eau stockée au moment opportun. Finalement, afin d’évaluer les apports de cette gestion, la méthode a été appliquée sur un cas d’étude basée sur un tronçon de rivière équipé de trois zones inondables et modélisé à l’aide de simulateurs hydrauliques combinant les approches de modélisation 1D et 2D. Les résultats de simulation obtenus ont montré que l’approche proposée permettait de réduire de manière significative les inondations en aval des cours d’eau. / On either side of the Earth, we observe more and more devastating natural phenomena. Amon these phenomena, floods are one of the most frequent and devastating natural disasters. During these last decades extensive flooding were caused by the flood of rivers. These floods due to excessive rainfall or runoff induce invariably the loss of human lives and material damages. To overcome these problems, water systems are increasingly equipped with means for detecting floods. A key factor in the management of such phenomena is responsiveness. Indeed, managers of river systems, faced to this kind of situation should quickly take important decisions in an uncertain context, as most of these floods are induced by abrupt climate events, whose magnitude is difficult to assess accuracy. We propose in this dissertation, a method of flood management in river systems equipped with flood zones controlled by gravitational gates. At first, we modeled our management method using a static transportation network. In a second step, we enriched it by using transportation networks with delays in order to take into account the travel time of the managed resource. The main difficulty of transportation networks with delays is their oversize. To overcome this problem, we developed an alternative mechanism combining a static reduced transportation network with a temporization matrix. Furthermore, this mechanism allows the consideration of variable time transfer depending on flows, without modification either on the transportation network, or on the structure of the temporization matrix. This mechanism allows simplified management of the transfer times, variable or not. With this mechanism, the evaluation of the minimum cost maximum flow allowed us, according to the management strategies considered, to compute the gate opening for floodplains in order to mitigate the flood but also to restore the water stored at the relevant time. Finally, to evaluate the contributions of this management, the method was applied to a case study based on a section of river equipped with three flood control reservoirs areas modeled using hydraulic simulators combining 1D and 2D models. The simulation results showed that the proposed approach allowed reducing significantly the floods downstream watercourses.

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