This research explored the City of Johannesburg’s response to floods in the lower-income settlement of Soweto in February 2009, through participant observation, interviews and examination of official documentation. The municipality’s response indicates the governance forces that may shape adaptation to increasingly severe and frequent climate events in the context of development pressures and needs. It was found that the flood event provided a ‘window of opportunity’ for action and learning on flooding, but governance factors hindered an effective response. These included the framing of flood risk, limitations in the City of Johannesburg’s municipal structure, institutional power dynamics, and the performance culture. The research demonstrated that networked governance is critical to adaptation in global South cities. In the case of Johannesburg city, conflicting governance paradigms constrained the realisation of networked governance modes. Resolving tensions amongst competing governance approaches is necessary to advance both the climate and development agenda in Johannesburg.

The role of local level governance and participation in managing climate disasters is gaining precedence in global and local (South African), discourse. In recent years, floods have caused major disasters in urban centres around the world. A lack of disaster preparedness in developing countries has resulted in much damage in urban environments. Such damage will have long-term repercussions for governance, communities and the natural environment. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense and frequent due to climate change, and many recently affected areas may consequently face increased risk of flooding in future. A range of factors influences the ability to manage disasters through all phases of preparation, response and recovery at the local level. The objective of this research is to investigate the extent to which a range of factors interacts to either enhance or limit resilience to flood disasters at the local scale. This is explored through triangulating the results of three investigations into both physical and social factors of understanding and managing flood disasters. The case study of flooding in Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality (EMM) in South Africa, with specific focus on the Atlasville suburb, provides the basis of the research. The research uses a multidisciplinary approach to examine disaster management, which includes perceptions and non-technical information in addition to statistical analysis. Flooding in the EMM is used as a case study to investigate how a multiple-perspective understanding of rainfall and flood events can help communities and municipalities better plan for and manage disaster events. This research argues that in order to understand the nuances of flood disasters, a combination of different sets of knowledge is necessary, as each set of knowledge plays an important part to inform how flood risks can be managed.

Proposal submitted in partial fulfilment for the award of MTech in Environmental Management / It is widely believed that experts often have a more rational approach towards risks. This is because they are known to use algorithms, formal logic, risk assessments and normative rules to make decisions about risks. The central tenet of this research is that communication based on an understanding of how people conceptualise and evaluate risk communication efforts is critical for translating risk management knowledge into effective risk practices necessary for value generation in flood risk mitigation. Rational decisionEmaking requires both analytic and intuitive systems to operate on a parallel level. Therefore, this research proposes a Flood Risk Communication Model that takes cognisance of lay perceptions. The model emphasises on how risk communication efforts are evaluated by the lay using a combination of descriptive psychological and social construction theories. In particular, the prospect theory, heuristics and biases, cultural theory and trust theory are used to provide explanatory sketches on how flood risk communication efforts are perceived in highly vulnerable environmental contexts such as informal settlements. The challenge in this research however, lies in verifying the model empirically. The associative group analysis technique will be used to generate empirical data from a case study population. Two basic analytic methods will be employed to measure psychological dispositions of respondents. Firstly, word associations are scored and weighted based on frequency of occurrence to generate a dominance score. The higher the dominance score, the greater the interpretation and the more meaningful the theme is for that particular group. Secondly, the different theories of the model are factored into a questionnaire to measure priorities. All the responses are then compared to the proposed model and also used to evaluate actual lay perceptions and feelings towards the current risk communication interventions. The results showed a high level of consistency with the FRCM and hence with the descriptive psychological models of Kahneman and Tversky. However, we conclude that what is has been proposed to be biases are intuitive tendencies to adapt and make sustainable decisions in the face of applicable contextual influences. Thus, these contextual hierarchies determine the reference point and status quo of the recipient in decision making. Therefore, these influences and hierarchies need to be factored in the designing of a risk communication.

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science. School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies (GAES). Johannesburg, October 2017. / Climate and weather-related impacts have become widespread particularly affecting the tourism industry. Changes in the climate and weather lead to changes in tourist seasons, products and travel opportunities. Flooding has gained research attention over the past decade, since the destruction creates many challenges for tourism businesses. Floods are a growing global problem, increasing in terms of frequency of occurrence, property damages, business economic losses, and fatalities. South Africa has begun to experience many annual flood events both coastal and in-land, but the Limpopo Province has been declared as flood disaster area, since the increase in temperatures and precipitation. Interest now lies on how particular tourist destinations in the Limpopo Province can adapt to reduce flooding risks whilst increasing opportunities mainly for the economy. Debates around flooding costs, recovery processes, and adaptive capacities affirm to be more challenging for the tourism accommodation sector. The study aimed to explore the perceived flooding impacts on different types of tourist accommodation. Thus, to determine if floods hindered any tourist bookings, offerings, and tourist length of stay. The exploration verified the possible flood risks to vulnerable accommodation and no adequate adaptation plans. A purposeful sample of 145 tourist accommodation businesses located across three flood-prone regions of the Limpopo Province were selected to answer a semi-structured questionnaire to put across their flooding experiences from a management perspective. The semi-structured questionnaire was combined with telephone interviews and email responses. Coherent theme development within the theoretical framework was achieved through content analysis. Content analysis allowed for the critical discussion of deductive and inductive themes found in the results. Floods during peak-seasons threaten and affect tourist accommodation, leaving them behind in business. Those not affected benefit with increased tourist demand and new opportunities in the hospitality industry. Tourist accommodation businesses are exposed to flood risks and experience challenges to assess, recover and adapt from the direct and indirect impacts. Alongside the destruction of tourism in these regions, were concerns of the provision of flood mapping and flood management plans for tourism businesses. Wider flooding impacts on the environment and the surrounding local communities demonstrates a growing problem for the future. Key words: floods; tourist accommodation; flooding impacts; risks; opportunities; tourist demand; adaptation; flood recovery, flood mapping, flood management plans. / LG2018

Thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of Master of Science in Development Planning to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, School of Architecture and Planning at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2017 / Throughout the 21st century, floods have caused major disasters in urban areas worldwide and especially in Africa. Several factors influence the ability of government to manage flood disasters through the phases of, preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery at a local level. The vulnerability of poor communities to flood disasters exacerbates the impact of the flooding on their livelihoods. The inability of governments to communicate effectively with communities about preparedness strategies for flood mitigation has resulted in much damage in urban areas. The study used semi-structured interviews with Disaster Management officials and community members involved in flooding to evaluate the Disaster Risk Management in Bramfischerville. The fieldwork took place in Bramfischerville that was affected by the 2009 floods. The research revealed that the 2009 Bramfischerville floods were caused by heavy rains, the building of RDP housing on a floodplain and ineffective implementation of Disaster Management strategies by the CoJ. This research argues that in order to understand flood disasters, cooperation between all stakeholders involved in Disaster Management is vital in knowledge accumulation. The 2009 floods had negatively impacted the livelihoods of people in Bramfischerville. Their houses were damaged and they had difficulty traveling to work and school. In this view, the costs associated with floods are continuously being a debt for the people living in Bramfischerville. This research found that the disjuncture between the community and the City of Johannesburg (CoJ) officials exacerbates the negative impacts floods have on people’s livelihoods in Bramfischerville. / MT2018

MSc (Zoology)) / Department of Zoology

Thesis (M.Sc. (Geography)) -- University of Limpopo, 2019 / Floods are one of the major natural hazards that occur with devastating effects globally. South Africa is one of the countries that is affected as flooding frequently occurs at different sub-national scales and with devastating impacts on human settlements. The variability of the nature, impact and frequency of flood occurrence in the country has heightened interest in the assessment and determination of flooding vulnerability, particularly in areas that have been affected or are likely to be affected in the near future. Given the uncertainties surrounding flood occurrence and the enormous damages resulting from the events, this study sought to assess the vulnerability of settlements to floods in Ward 7 and 9 of Lephalale Local Municipality. To accomplish this, both primary and secondary sources of data were used in this study. A mixture of closed-ended and open-ended household questionnaire, which was administered to 133 and 227 randomly selected households in Ward 7 and 9 respectively was used. In addition, a vulnerability index was developed using an indicator approach in order to determine levels of flood vulnerability in the study areas. Indicators were identified, grouped and normalised using the standardization method, then weighted using pairwise comparison method. The various indicators were then aggregated through a linear summation method into a vulnerability index. This index was subsequently used to produce a vulnerability map showing the spatial pattern of the different flood vulnerability levels in the studied areas. The results reveal that socioeconomic as well as physical factors influence settlements’ vulnerability to flooding disasters. Furthermore, the vulnerability index map showed that Ward 7 was more vulnerable to flooding, with an average index of about 0.16 while Ward 9 was less vulnerable, with an average flood vulnerability index of 0,07. The vulnerability map also indicated that out of the total land area of 13.54km2 occupied by settlements in Ward 7, 9.38 km2 was very vulnerable, 2.27km2 highly vulnerable and 1.89km2 had low vulnerability. In Ward 9, about 4.44km2 of settlements land was experiencing low vulnerability while 29.96km2 experienced very low levels of vulnerability. The study concludes that the high vulnerability of Ward 7 was a result of an interplay of factors that include its nearness to the stream, a high proportion of low-lying land, land use type and high population densities. The results of this study can serve as a basis for targeting prioritization efforts, emergency response measures, and policy interventions at the ward level for minimizing flood disaster vulnerability in municipal areas. The study recommends that flood vulnerability assessments should integrate socio-economic characteristics with physical factors in order to adequately assess vulnerability and therefore enable municipalities to anticipate floods and plan for them. / University of Limpopo Staff Financial Assistance, Risk and Vulnerability Science Centre and VLIR

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / Severe floods in the Western Cape have caused significant damage to hydraulic structures, roads and other infrastructure over the past decade. The current design criteria for these structures and flood return level calculations are based on the concept of stationarity, which assumes that natural systems vary within an envelope of variability that does not change with time. In the context of regional climate change and projected changes in rainfall intensity, the basis for these calculations may become unrealistic with the passage of time. Hydraulic structures and other infrastructure may become more vulnerable to damaging floods because of changing hydroclimatic conditions. This project assesses the changes in extreme rainfall values over time across the Western Cape, South Africa. Using a Generalised Pareto Distribution, this study examines the changes in return levels across the Western Cape region for the periods 1900-1954 and 1955-2010. Of the 137 rainfall stations used in this research, 85 (62%) showed an increase in 50-year return level, 30 (22%) a decrease in 50-year return level and 22 (16%) stations displayed little change in rainfall intensity over time. While there were no clear spatial patterns to the results, they clearly indicate an increase in frequency of intense rainfalls in the latter half of the 20th and early 21st century. The changes in return level are also accompanied by a change in the frequency of high intensity 2-3 day long storms. 115 (84%) of the 137 rainfall stations showed an increase in the frequency of long duration, high intensity storms over the data record. This change generates a shifting risk profile of extreme rainfalls, which, in turn, creates challenges for the design of hydraulic structures and any infrastructure exposed to the resulting damaging floods. It can therefore be argued that it is inappropriate to design structures or manage water resources assuming stationarity of climate and that these principles should be assessed in order to reduce the risk of flood damage owing to increasing storm intensity. KEY WORDS Flood Risk, Stationarity, Disaster Risk, Hazard, Extreme Rainfall, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Climate

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh., or River Red Gum, is a commercially valuable yet recognised invasive alien plant (IAP) of riparian zones throughout South Africa. The invasive potential of E. camaldulensis is widely recognised, with specific regulations aimed at the management of E. camaldulensis. E. camaldulensis is known to use large amounts of water, reduce biodiversity, change river morphology and impact hydrological regimes of rivers. In the native range throughout Australia, E. camaldulensis displays a distinct relationship between rainfall, and flood events, for seed dispersal, germination and establishment, and consequently spatial extent, yet little is known about the relationships in the South African context. The aim of this project was to assess the impact of high rainfall and flood events on the establishment and distribution of E. camaldulensis along the Middle Breede River, between Worcester and Swellendam in the Western Cape, by establishing the current spatial extent of E. camaldulensis along the river, identifying flood events since 1950 and evaluating the impact rainfall and flood events had on the spatial extent thereof. Aerial imagery, rainfall, discharge and river level data was obtained dating back to 1980, as well as field data comprising of GPS-bounding of E. camaldulensis stands. Additionally, density measurements were obtained and interviews conducted with land users. Spatial analysis of aerial imagery, coupled with perimeter (GPS) data and density data were used to conduct spatio-temporal analysis, employing GIS and conventional statistical approaches to address the various objectives. Results indicated E. camaldulensis stands had a small overall increase in spatial extent since 1980. Flooding and rainfall events coincided with an increase in occurrence of E. camaldulensis with elevated river levels and frequent flooding, while spatial variation of this relationship was observed. The hydrological regime of the Breede River coincides with a slow increase in spatial extent of E. camaldulensis stands, but no affirmation of a positive real-world relationship was possible using the available data. Results further suggested, based on the current age class composition, that existing stands originated roughly during 1980, possibly due to commercial forestry related seeding into the river. Reduced fragmentation between stakeholders, educational programmes and improved reporting systems were recommended for improved IAP management within the area. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Eucalyptus camaldulensis, of Rooibloekom (RB), is ‘n waardevolle kommersiële, maar erkende indringer plantspesie (IP) wat veral oewersones in Suid-Afrika indring. Die indringerpotensiaal van E. camaldulensis is welbekend, en spesifieke regulasies, gemik op die bestuur van RB en ander spesies is reeds aangeneem. E. camaldulensis is veral bekend vir sy hoë watergebruik, sy vermindering van biodiversiteit, sy vermoë om riviervorme te verander en sy algehele impak op die hidrologiese patroon van riviere waarmee dit in aanraking kom. In sy oorspronklike verspreidingsgebied in Australië toon E. camaldulensis ‘n bepaalde verhouding tussen reënval en vloedgebeurtenisse vir saadverspreiding, ontkieming en vestiging en derhalwe die ruimtelike verspreiding van die spesie; alhoewel hierdie verhouding in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks steeds redelik onverduidelik bly. Die doelwit van hierdie studie was dus om die impak van hoë reënval en vloedgebeurtenisse op die ruimtelike verspreiding en vestiging van E. camaldulensis teenaan die Middel Breëde Rivier, spesifiek tussen Worcester en Swellendam, te evalueer. Hierdie doelwit was bereik deur die historiese ruimtelike verspreiding teenaan die rivier te meet, hoë reënval en vloedgebeurtenisse vanaf 1980 te identifiseer, en die huidige verspreiding en omtrek met GPS te meet. Digtheidafmetings, sowel as onderhoude met belanghebbendes teenaan die rivier was ook opgeneem. Visuele interpretatasie van lugfotos, sowel as omtrek (GPS) en digtheid-data was gebruik om ruimtelike analise uit te voer, deur die gebruik van GIS en konvensionele statistiese metodes, ten einde die doelwitte te evalueer. Resultate dui aan dat E. camaldulensis areas ‘n klein algemene groei getoon het sedert 1980. Hoë-reënval en gereëlde vloedgebeurtenisse het ook gepaard gegaan met ‘n groei van E. camaldulensis oppervlak, alhoewel hierdie verhouding ruimtelike variasie getoon het, met ‘n algemene groei patroon gemerk oor die volledige studietydperk. Ook geen stimulerende verhouding kon vanuit die beskikbare data bevestig word nie. Addisionele resultate het aangedui dat die verspreiding van E. camaldulensis ongeveer 1980 onstaan het, moontlik as gevolg van kommersiële bosbou-aanplanting en verwante saadverspreiding in die rivier vanaf daardie tyd. Aanbevelings ten opsigte van verbeterde indringerbestuur sluit in die beperking van huidige fragmentasie tussen belanghebbendes en betrokke verwyderingsorganisasies, addisionele onderrigprogramme sowel as die verbetering van terugvoersisteme.

MSc (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / Haulage trucks and cross border traders cross through Beitbridge border post from landlocked countries such as Zimbabwe and Zambia for the sake of trading. Because of global warming, South Africa has lately been experiencing extreme weather patterns in the form of very high temperatures and heavy rainfall. Evidently, in 2013 tra c could not cross the Limpopo River because water was owing above the bridge. For planning, its important to predict the likelihood of such events occurring in future. Extreme value models o er one way in which this can be achieved. This study identi es suitable distributions to model the annual maximum heights of Limpopo river at Beitbridge border post. Maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian approach are used for parameter estimation. The r -largest order statistics was also used in this dissertation. For goodness of t, the probability and quantile- quantile plots are used. Finally return levels are calculated from these distributions. The dissertation has revealed that the 100 year return level is 6.759 metres using the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches to estimate parameters. Empirical results show that the Fr echet class of distributions ts well the ood heights data at Beitbridge border post. The dissertation contributes positively by informing stakeholders about the socio- economic impacts that are brought by extreme flood heights for Limpopo river at Beitbridge border post