Ph.D. (Geography) / South Africa is characterised by limited natural water resources and is water-stressed. The Upper Vaal Water Management Area (WMA) is part of the Vaal River system, which is deemed to be the ‘workhorse’ of South Africa as it is located in the economic heart of the country. The WMA supplies water to all of the major economic entities in the economic hub of the country and is fully exploited in terms of the water that it makes available. Owing to its prime importance in terms of the economic development of the country, the quality of the water in the Upper Vaal WMA is an important factor which needs to be investigated and monitored intensively. The degradation in the quality of the water in this region will in its turn reduce the availability of water in the Upper Vaal WMA and have widespread environmental, social, as well as economic consequences and impacts. The aim of this study is thus to quantify and predict future hydrological responses, in terms of water quality, towards land cover changes in the case of the Upper Vaal WMA for the period, July 2000 to June 2012. In so doing, model equations can be formulated and predictions can be made for future hydrological changes in terms of future concentrations of the selected water quality parameters linked to specific land cover change scenarios. The quality of the water in the Upper Vaal WMA varies significantly across all of the secondary and tertiary catchments and could, therefore, be described as being of a heterogeneous nature. Its quality as a whole is below average and in some cases, poor. The quality of the water in the secondary catchment of the Wilge River, on the other hand, is for the most part of an ideal to acceptable standard. However it has been degraded to a certain extent as it displays tolerable concentrations of phosphate, COD and Chlorophyll a and unacceptably high concentrations of nitrate. The Vaal River, Vaal River Barrage and the Mooi River catchments are significantly degraded owing to the mainly tolerable to unacceptably high concentrations of most of the selected water quality parameters that they contain.....

Global climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon, influencing weather and climate patterns. However, the greatest cause for concern at present is the rate at which climate change is currently occurring. Natural shifts in climate take place over a period of many thousands of years, not in a matter of decades, which is what is occurring at present. In South Africa, climate change is projected to have different regional effects, which in turn could impact on the components of the terrestrial hydrological system, such as land use. The alteration of the catchment upstream of the estuaries could affect the quantity and quality of streamflows entering estuaries. This could impact negatively upon estuaries, thereby reducing the considerable biodiversity in estuaries and the ecosystems goods and services provided by estuaries which would reduce the significant revenue provided by these systems. The research undertaken in this project investigates the possible effects of climate change, and changes in upstream land use on freshwater inflows into estuarine ecosystems using a daily hydrological model. Owing to the regionality of climate change in South Africa 10 estuaries in different climatic regions were selected for this investigation. Climate output from five GCMs under the SRES A2 climate scenario for the present (1971 – 1990), intermediate (2046 – 2065) and distant future (2081 – 2100) periods was used as input for the selected climate input. Results of these simulations show that the eastern regions of South Africa may experience considerable increases in the occurrence of high intensity rainfall events into the future. This could influence the abiotic factors of the system which may impact upon the biotic components of estuaries, as these systems are physically controlled. In the western regions the difference of the magnitude of flows between present and projected future is minimal. However, projected increases in temperature could influence evaporation, thereby decreasing future flows into estuaries. This, in some instances, may result in systems turning hyper-saline, which could have far reaching implications, both ecologically and economically. Additionally, an investigation, as to the possible effects of irrigation and climate change combined on flows entering and breaching events of the Klein estuary, was undertaken. Hence, simulations including and excluding irrigation routines have been completed. Results from these simulations illustrate the detrimental effects of irrigation into the future periods, especially during 1 in 10 low flow years, when flows into the Klein estuary cease completely. Breaching event results illustrate that climate change could have a negative impact on this estuarine system as the number of events decreases into distant future period. The addition of agricultural abstractions decreases the number of breaching events markedly. Therefore, the link between the marine and terrestrial hydrological systems is lost which could, if this estuary is isolated from the ocean for an extended period of time, become extremely detrimental to the ecological integrity of the Klein estuary. This highlights the value and vulnerabilities of estuarine ecosystems in South Africa to future climate and upstream land use changes. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

ABI has a sophisticated and effective distribution fleet which delivers canned and bottled non alcoholic beverages to 12000 wholesale and retail outlets in the Durban Metropole and to 46000 outlets nationally. Delivery is normally executed once per week, 48 hours after a separate order is taken by an account manager. In the more rural or "emerging market" areas traditional retail outlets such as supermarkets and superettes are scarce and reliance is made on spaza and house shops. Cash flow and storage space is limited. The sales and distribution calls are expensive, relative to the size order that the spaza would place. Spaza shop owners rely on distributors or collect from wholesalers. These outlets often run out of stock. Sales revenue is thus not maximized. Outlet development is marginal. The writer embarked on a research project to develop a sustainable and cost effective Sales and Distribution model in order to address these constraints in the Emerging Market territories of ABI Durban. Traditional theory turns to channel distribution as a means to effectively reaching an entire retail market. Levels are thus added to the distribution channel. The research however showed that service levels are sometimes compromised. The model that was developed returns ABI to DSD (direct service delivery) via specially designed vehicles and combines the function of "preseller" and "delivery merchandiser" on a dedicated route. Although a marginal increase in cost per case has been experienced, deliveries are direct to store, at least twice per week. Sales growth in these routes have been in excess of 85% while the total Umlazi area grows at 13%. Customer service levels, as surveyed, are exceptional. Although the model was specifically designed by ABI Durban for use in Durban, the concept has been adopted as a best practice and is being "rolled out" across the business. By the end of 2005, 10% of ABl's fleet nationally will function as MOTD (Merchandiser Order Taker Driver) routes. Additional vehicles have been ordered for delivery during the period July 2005 to September 2005 in order for this to be achieved. This model has assisted ABI in achieving its goal of maximizing DSD and lifting service levels to its customers (retailers). Revenue has increased significantly along with volume in these areas. Invariably MOTD acts as a significant barrier to competitor entry in those geographic areas where it is utilized. The Merchandiser Order Taker Driver (MOTD) model is successful and has potential for wider use, even in more developed markets. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2005.

Using a simple linear regression model for estimation could give misleading results about the relationship between Yt, and Xt, . Possible problems involve (1) feedback from the output series to the inputs, (2) omitted time-lagged input terms, (3) an auto correlated disturbance series and, (4) common autocorrelation patterns shared by Y and X that can produce spurious correlations. The primary aim of this study was therefore to use the Box-Jenkins Transfer Function analysis to fit a model that related petroleum consumption to disposable income> The final Transfer Function Model z1t=)C(1-w1 B)/((1-δ1 B) B^5 Z(t^((x) +(1-θ1 B)at significantly described the data. Forecasts generated from this model show that petroleum consumption will hit a record of up to 4.8636 in 2014 if disposable income is augmented. There is 95% confidence that the forecasted value of petroleum consumption will lie between 4.5276 and 5.1997 in 2014. / Thesis (M. Com. (Statistics) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2005

Bibliography / Thesis (MPhil (Journalism))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.

M.Comm. / The objectives of this research can be summarised as follows: To integrate the customer research technique of attribute analysis with the volume planning process. To determine whether attribute analysis, is a useful and reliable tool for determining purchase behavior in the small sedan segment of the motor industry. To determine a customers perception of total product value through attribute analysis. To analyse the influence of price in the purchase decision. To determine whether a market share theorem that weights the perceived value of a vehicle, relative to its competitors perceived value is a reliable predictor of market penetration. To identify the determinant attributes in the decision making process of purchasing a small sedan vehicle. The research component of this dissertation is limited to the small sedan passenger segment of South African car market. While it is recognised that the small sedan segment is only one sub-sector of the vehicle market, it is felt that the study will provide a fair reflection of how the approach could be utilised in other sectors.

The primary objective of the study is to assess whether organisations are using their budgeting, forecasting and financial planning information as a strategic tool in the decision-making process. The research aims to investigate the various factors that hinder the success of the finance department in delivering a quality financial plan, budget or forecast to top management and the rest of the organisation.

Thesis (M. Sc. (Statistics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2021 / The effects of ozone depletion on climate change has, in recent years, become a reality, impacting on changes in rainfall patterns and severity of extreme floods or extreme droughts. The majority of people across the entire African continent live in semi-arid and drought-prone areas. Extreme droughts are prevalent in Somalia and eastern Africa, while life-threatening floods are common in Mozambique and some parts of other SADC (Southern African Development Community) countries. Research has cautioned that climate change in South Africa might lead to increased temperatures and reduced amounts of rainfall, thereby altering their timing and putting more pressure on the country’s scarce water resources, with implications for agriculture, employment and food security. The average annual rainfall for South Africa is about 464mm, falling far below the average annual global rainfall of 860mm. The Limpopo Province, which is one of the nine provinces in South Africa, and of interest to this study, is predominantly agrarian, basically relying on availability of water, with rainfall being the major source for water supply. It is, therefore, pertinent that the rainfall pattern in the province be monitored effectively to ascertain the rainy period for farming activities and other uses. Modelling and forecasting rainfall have been studied for a long time worldwide. However, from time to time, researchers are always looking for new models that can predict rainfall more accurately in the midst of climate change and capture the underlying dynamics such as seasonality and the trend, attributed to rainfall. This study employed Exponetial Smoothing (ETS) State Space and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and compared their forecasting ability using root mean square error (RMSE). Both models were used to capture the sporadic behaviour of rainfall. These two models have been widely applied to climatic data by many scholars and adjudged to perform creditably well. In an attempt to find a suitable prediction model for monthly rainfall patterns in Limpopo Province, data ranging from January 1900 to December 2015, for seven weather stations: Macuville Agriculture, Mara Agriculture, Marnits, Groendraal, Letaba, Pietersburg Hospital and Nebo, were analysed. The results showed that the two models were adequate in predicting rainfall patterns for the different stations in the Limpopo Province. / National Research Foundation (NRF)

Thesis (D. Tech. (Engineering: Electric)) -- Central University of technology, 2012 / Because power generation relies heavily on electricity demand, consumers are required to wisely manage their loads to consolidate the power utility‟s optimal power generation efforts. Consequently, accurate and reliable electric load forecasting systems are required. Prior to the present situation, there were various forecasting models developed primarily for electric load forecasting. Modelling short term load forecasting using artificial neural networks has recently been proposed by researchers. This project developed a model for short term load forecasting using a neural network. The concept was tested by evaluating the forecasting potential of the basic feedforward and the cascade forward neural network models. The test results showed that the cascade forward model is more efficient for this forecasting investigation. The final model is intended to be a basis for a real forecasting application. The neural model was tested using actual load data of the Bloemfontein reticulation network to predict its load for half an hour in advance. The cascade forward network demonstrates a mean absolute percentage error of less than 5% when tested using four years of utility data. In addition to reporting the summary statistics of the mean absolute percentage error, an alternate method using correlation coefficients for presenting load forecasting performance results are shown. This research proposes that a 6:1:1 cascade forward neural network can be trained with data from a month of a year and forecast the load for the same month of the following year. This research presents a new time series modeling for short term load forecasting, which can model the forecast of the half-hourly loads of weekdays, as well as of weekends and public holidays. Obtained results from extensive testing on the Bloemfontein power system network confirm the validity of the developed forecasting approach. This model can be implemented for on-line testing application to adopt a final view of its usefulness.

Dissertation (PhD (For))--University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to develop a new method which can be used to forecast the Forest Engineering value chain. The method is then applied in the South African context in order to validate the use thereof. Finally, the South African results are used to propose strategies, which the industry should pursue in the future. To forecast the future an understanding of the past is required. To this end, the historical development of Forest Engineering is discussed, both globally and in South Africa. The current status quo in Forest Engineering in South Africa was determined through a national survey of plantations larger than 200 ha. The results are reflected in Chapter 2. Because of the importance of globalisation and technology, Chapter 3 gives a literature review of relevance of technology in today's business world, including various forecasting techniques that are relevant to the study. These techniques are a combination of traditional forecasting methods, technology forecasting methods and strategic planning methods. Various approaches to financial analysis have also been discussed, in order to determine the soundest method of comparing various forest engineering systems with each other. This includes an overview of traditional machine cost calculations. The core of the study lies in the combination of these methodologies into a useful method, which is particularly suited to forecasting the Forest Engineering value chain. Such a method is developed in Chapter 4, based on the literature review of forecasting methodologies. The method is then validated in Chapter 5, through the application thereof in the South African forestry industry. Global trends are established with the use of a Delphi study. This technique uses a panel of experts who give their views on future developments on a multiple round basis. The study then evaluates 14 Forest Engineering systems for pine sawtimber, pine pulpwood and Eucalyptus pulpwood, based on various scenarios of the future. The scenario matrix is based on the future cost of labour vs. the future cost of machinery. Finally, a strategy is proposed on how the South African forestry industry should prepare itself for the future. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doelwit van die studie is om 'n nuwe metode te ontwikkel waarmee 'n vooruitskatting van die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting gemaak kan word. Die metode word dan in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks toegepas om die geldigheid daarvan te beproef. Die Suid-Afrikaanse resultate word voorts gebruik om 'n nasionale Bosingenieurswese strategie voor te stel vir die bedryf. Dit is nodig om die verlede te verstaan, voor die toekoms vooruitgeskat kan word. Om dié rede is die historiese ontwikkeling van bosingenieurswese bespreek, in beide 'n internasionale, sowel as 'n Suid Afrikaanse konteks. Die huidige status quo van Bosingenieurswese in Suid Afrika is vasgestel deur 'n nasionale opname waarby plantasies van groter as 200 ha ingesluit is. Die resultate van die opname word weergegee in Hoofstuk 2. As gevolg van die belangrikheid van beide globalisering en tegnologie, is 'n literatuur studie ingesluit in Hoofstuk 3 oor die relevansie van tegnologie in die besigheidswêreld van vandag, asook en 'n bespreking van verskeie vooruitskattingstegnieke wat in die studie gebruik kan word. Hierdie vooruitskattinge is 'n kombinasie van tradisionele vooruitskattings tegnieke, tegnologie vooruitskattingstegnieke en tegnieke wat gebruik word vir strategiese beplanning. Verskeie benaderinge tot finansiële analise is ook bespreek. Dit sluit tradisionele masjienkoste berekening in. Die rede hiervoor is om vas te stel watter metode die mees geskikte sou wees om verskeie Bosingenieurswese sisteme met mekaar te vergelyk. Die kern van die studie lê in die kombinasie van hierdie metodes om 'n bruikbare metode te ontwerp om die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting vooruit te skat. Hierdie ontwerp word in Hoofstuk 4 bespreek. Die metode word in Hoofstuk 5 beproef, deur die toepassing daarvan op die Suid Afrikaanse bosbedryf. Internasionale bosingenieurswese tendense is vasgestel deur middel van 'n Delphi studie. Hierdie vooruitskatting maak gebruik van 'n paneel van kundiges wat hulle siening oor die toekoms uitspreek deur verskeie rondtes van vrae wat aan hulle gestel word. Die studie evalueer hierna 14 Bosingenieurswese sisteme vir denne saaghout, denne pulphout en Eucalyptus pulphout, gebaseer op 'n scenario-analise van die toekoms. Die scenario matriks is gefundeer op die toekomstige koste van arbeid teenoor die toekomstige koste van masjinerie. As 'n finale stap word voorgestel hoe die Suid Afrikaanse bosbedryf kan voorberei om die toekoms tegemoet te gaan.