A 50% research report to be submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of: MASTER OF COMMERCE (FINANCE) UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND / Several studies have assessed the forward-looking characteristic of share prices and confirmed their resultant capability as leading indicators of economic activity, especially in advanced economies. Contention however exists when evaluating the role of stock markets as leading indicators for less developed countries. This study examines the validity of the stock market as a leading indicator of economic activity in South Africa using quarterly time-series data for the period January 1992 to June 2014. Causality and cointegration between the JSE All Share Index against Real GDP and Real Industrial Production is evaluated by employing Granger-causality tests and the Johansen cointegration procedure. The empirical investigation indicates that unidirectional causality exists between the nominal and real stock indices and economic activity in South Africa, and confirms a long-run relationship between the JSE and GDP and Industrial Production. Therefore, similar to the study by Auret and Golding (2012), in a South African context, the stock market is in fact a leading indicator of economic activity. / MT2017

This paper aims to investigate the apparent existence of two anomalies in the South African stock market based on regular strike action, namely the month of the year effect and seasonality across specific sectors of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management at the University of the Witwatersrand in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MM in Finance and Investment March 2015 / Individual investors often do not have access to share trading information and even if they do, they may not be able to understand or accurately interpret this information. Investors rely on financial analysts’ forecasts and stock recommendations in order to make profitable investment decisions. The role of the financial analyst is an important one with two key objectives: earnings forecasts and stock recommendations (Loh and Mian 2006). These financial analysts play a significant role in the efficient functioning of global stock markets. The aim of the financial analyst is to evaluate shares trading on the stock market and their future price appreciation or depreciation to develop new buy, hold or sell recommendations to maximize shareholder wealth. The extant literature recognizes that new buy, hold and sell recommendations made by financial analysts have a substantial impact on the market (Womack, 1996). Research on financial analysts has become prevalent in financial literature with the promotion of financial analysts to the level of integral economic proxies worthy of individual examination (Bradshaw, 2011). The aim of this research report is to investigate whether financial analysts’ stock recommendations enhance or destruct shareholder wealth. The extant literature on financial analysts’ stock recommendations and forecasts suggests that the analysts’ recommendations have both a significant and an insignificant effect on stock prices in the market following the months after the change in recommendation is made. The accuracy of the financial analysts’ stock recommendations are measured in the months following the change in recommendation through determining if the recommendation outperforms the market benchmark. This report examines the effects of analysts’ recommendations on the performance of stocks on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and concludes through determining if the share underperforms or outperforms the market benchmark surmising that to a varying degree there is value to be found in financial analysts’ stock recommendations for the individual investor.

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management, specialising in Entrepreneurship and New Venture Creation Johannesburg, 2017 / This study examined the relationship between business failure and macroeconomic fluctuations within business cycles of South Africa’s economy for the time period 1980 to 2016. The study also sought to understand where, if any, immediate and lag correlations between fluctuations and business failure could be established. To understand this connection, this study used longitudinal data sets of different macroeconomic factors and studied their influence on business failure. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to determine the long-term relationship between failure and each of the other variables. Additionally, Granger Causality was applied to establish whether the macroeconomic variables investigated in this study can be constructed to predict the probability of business failures. Three classes of macroeconomic predictor variables were considered. Firstly, well-known international variables in the form of GDP and CPI were used. Secondly, the study incorporated the three Composite Business Cycle indicators- leading, coincident and lagging. Lastly, behavioural indicators were used to incorporate the views of the actual businesses and their customers, which for this the study were the Business and Consumer Confidence Indices. After examining the effects the 7 macroeconomic variables had on business failure, the study found that there is a long-run relationship between the Composite Lagging Business Cycle indicator, the Business Confidence and Consumer confidence, which influenced Business Failure. Additionally, it was noted that Business Failure influence the Composite Lagging Business Cycle indicator in the long-run. The study additionally found that Business Failure may Granger Cause the Composite Leading Business Cycle indicator Outcomes of the study are potentially vital for entrepreneurs to understand the timing of entry into markets based on macroeconomic fluctuations through their cycles in certain industries. Business owners can make proactive financial and strategic decisions vital for survival of their business through the expansion and especially in the contraction cycles of the macroeconomic environments. / MT2017

This study specifically deals with finding a pragmatic solution to the problem of sales forecasting and demand planning in a very dynamic industry, the dairy industry, in the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) market. Two projects surrounding the Parmalat supply chain were commissioned, the first dealing with sales forecasting, and the second dealing with distribution replenishment planning. This dissertation handles the former and sought to find solutions and integrate the strategic or long-term planning process with the operational forecasting process, and effectively integrate both these into the Parmalat supply chain management process. Of great importance to us during the project was the organizations maturity and level of business discipline currently prevalent, you would therefore constantly find reference to improvements required in other business process in support of a more sophisticated world class Supply Chain Management (SCM) system. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2005.

Script contains articles in Afrikaans and some text also in Afrikaans / Opportunities abound in the Armaments industry is South Africa and abroad. This is probably one of the main reasons why it has grown to almost astronomical amounts in va lu e . Simultaneously, the vast f igures in turnover and profits have attracted numerous competitors into the business. The next factor which has contributed most significantly to the increase in development and manufacture of armaments is of course the need of countries to defend themselves against aggressors. Political unrest , terrorism , border conflicts , war and invasions are the order of the day. All of these events require a show of arms, if not retaliation . In order to satisfy a need for strategic independence, even to a limited extent , countries have insisted on development and establishment of various categories of technologies. During the past fifty years there has been an explosion in the amount of information published in the technology sector. Some highly sophisticated technologies have become commonplace in most technical fields , including the armaments industry . As might be expected, the armaments industry is also greatly influenced by trends and change in the sector of economics, by social and cultural factors , and new legislation. It may rightfully be regarded as a highly volatile , complex and dynamic part of any economy. Under these circumstances the role of technology management in a country and in a business enterprise becomes more important, more difficult , and more essential. To ensure that a large organisation stays competitive, or becomes more competitive, the system of planning and control must be well integrated , kept up to date, and well/managed to fulfil its purpose. For the purpose of this script an investigation was undertaken into the corporate and business systems for technology management in a firm in the local engineering industry . The description covers planning and control theory, system models, innovation and technology management principles , and the theory of forecasting methods usually adapted for technology predictions , Evaluation of the practical systems which are in place and are being utilised , led to a few significant observations and conslusions. The investigation was by no means exhaustive, but was aimed at getting an overview of the corporate and business systems as they operate with in the stated strategic frameworks. It is concluded that technology planning and control systems are well-developed, highly integrated and applied in a top-down fashion . Not all aspects are conducted as efficiently as should be possible. Also, due to the dynamic nature of the industry, effectiveness can still improve for the company. Moves are afoot to meet new challenges and requirements and there is no doubt that the future will see great achievements. / Business Management / M.B.L.

Submitted to the Information Technology (IT) Department in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Technology, Durban University of Technology. Durban, South Africa, 2016. / This doctoral research introduces an integration of satellite systems and new stratospheric platforms for weather observation, imaging and transfer of meteorological data to the ground infrastructures. Terrestrial configuration and satellite communication subsystems represent well-established technologies that have been involved in global satellite sensing and weather observation area for years. However, in recent times, a new alternative has emerged based on quasi-stationary aerial platforms located in the Stratosphere called High Altitude Platform (HAP) or Stratospheric Communication Platforms (SCP). The SCP systems seem to represent a dream come true for communication engineers since they preserve most of the advantages of both terrestrial and satellite communication systems. Today, SCP systems are able to help, in a more cost effective way, developments of space Earth sensing and weather observation and weather sensing and observation. This new system can provide a number of forms ranging from a low altitude tethered balloon to a high altitude (18 – 25 km) fuel-powered piloted aircraft, solar-powered unmanned airplanes and solar-powered airship.

M.Ing. (Engineering Management) / As a result of its direct relations with the different sectors of the economy, the construction industry is used as a tool by governments around the world for economic recovery. The South African government has taken such a stance following the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, by proposing the government‘s infrastructure spending and expansion programme for economic growth and development. The South African economy took a stalling from 4.1% in 2007 to 2.3% in 2008 and then turning negative in 2009. This research paper seeks to gather insight of the relationship between construction output and economic growth, as well as the potential long and short term benefits of major infrastructure projects to the South African economy. South Africa; as a developing country and with its construction industry currently in the upward trend, there are lessons that can be learnt from the developed countries. To this end, trends in construction output and GDP have been scrutinised to examine any pattern of development relating the construction industry and its relationship with the economy as a whole. The examination spanned over 32 countries grouped according to their respective development status. With South Africa‘s significant increase in the annual change in construction output between 2004 and 2008, amid developments of the FIFA world cup, confirmed the relation between construction investment and economic growth. The contribution of the construction industry to GDP for developed countries all follow the same trend of having high contributions in the beginning of development declining as less and less new infrastructure is required by the country. The contribution of construction averaged at 6 per cent for the entire duration of analysis between 1970 and 2011. Compared to international standards, South Africa‘s contribution of construction to GDP is determined to be very low at 3 per cent for the duration 1963 and 2011. Further, the construction industry has displayed characteristics of instability for South Africa when compared to developed countries over the same period.

This study focused on the possible determinants of operational efficiency at the University of Venda, which was premised on the extent to which stakeholders are involved in the strategic planning of the institution. The aim of the study was to establish the stakeholders’ involvement in the strategic planning of the University of Venda. Structured questionnaires were used to collect data during August and October 2011. The study was conducted at the University of Venda, Vhembe District in the Limpopo Province. A non-probability sampling procedure was used to select respondents. The results revealed that whilst the stakeholders seem to be involved in the process of the strategic planning, the extent of stakeholders’ involvement has largely remained contentious. The results further indicate that not all stakeholders are involved in the strategic planning process at the University of Venda. Although stakeholders are invited to participate, the process of strategic planning is absolutely dominated by the management cadre, reducing the rest participants into the doldrums. Those who are directly affected by the strategic plan are least involved in the process of the planning. Because of the lack of involvement and communication regarding the strategic planning process, the findings reveal that the majority of stakeholders were de-motivated in that regard, culminating in their lack-lustre approach towards the implementation of the orchestrated plan. The resultant lack of buy-in by the affected stakeholders, essentially the internal stakeholders (staff members and the student community), eventually hamper the actualisation of the targeted goals of the strategic plans. These results suggest that the strategic plan review should be an on-going process in order to update and involve the university community of the strategic planning processes. Proper feedback and communication on strategic planning processes should be implemented. More importantly, the stakeholders’ involvement and consultation on the strategic planning should be galvanized, since most of the staff members and students seem to be unaware of the strategic planning process at the University of Venda, let alone its contents and aspirations. / Business Management / M. Tech.(Business Administration)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this paper the effectiveness of "transplanting" a particular methodology of a probabilistic approach is assessed in a South African economic context. The methodology makes use of leading indicators which are used in regression models, with a dichotomous response variable, assuming values of 0 or 1 to indicate expansion or contraction of economic activity. The backbone of the study closely replicates the work of Nazmi (1993) and his work on turning point prediction. The recorded results indicate an ability of the model to accurately forecast businesscycle turning points in the 1980s. In the period of the 1990s, the model displays a diminished capacity to forecast the turning points with acceptable accuracy. Leading indicators, in the South African experience, show a reliable leading relationship to the composite coincident index in the current study period between 1970 and 1980 and thereafter this relationship decreases, impacting negatively upon the forecasting ability of the model. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie word die doeltreffende 'oorplanting' van 'n bepaalde metodologie van 'n waarskynlikheidsbenadering tot ekonomiese vooruitskatting in 'n Suid-Afrikaanse konteks assesseer. Die metodologie benut leidende aanwysers wat in regressiemodelle gebruik word, met 'n tweeledige responsveranderlike wat die waardes 0 of 1 aanneem om die uitbreiding of inkrimping van ekonomiese aktiwiteit aan te dui. Die kern van hierdie studie reflekteer tot 'n groot mate die werk van Nader Nazmi oor draaipunt voorspellings. Resultate toon aan dat Nazmi se model wel sakesiklusse se draaipunte akkuraat voorspel het gedurende die 1980's. Gedurende die 1990's het hierdie model se voorspeIlingsakkuraatheid egter afgeneem. In die Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede dui leidende/rigtinggewende aanwysers op 'n betroubare verhouding wat betref die saamgestelde meelopende indeks vir die tydperk 1970 tot 1980 in die onderhawige studie. Daarna is daar 'n afname in die verhouding, wat 'n negatiewe impak het op die voorspellingsvermoe van die model. In hierdie studie word die doeltreffende 'oorplanting' van 'n bepaalde metodologie van 'n waarskynlikheidsbenadering tot ekonomiese vooruitskatting in 'n Suid-Afrikaanse konteks assesseer. Die metodologie benut leidende aanwysers wat in regressiemodelle gebruik word, met 'n tweeledige responsveranderlike wat die waardes 0 of 1 aanneem om die uitbreiding of inkrimping van ekonomiese aktiwiteit aan te dui. Die kern van hierdie studie reflekteer tot 'n groot mate die werk van Nader Nazmi oor draaipunt voorspellings. Resultate toon aan dat Nazmi se model wel sakesiklusse se draaipunte akkuraat voorspel het gedurende die 1980's. Gedurende die 1990's het hierdie model se voorspeIlingsakkuraatheid egter afgeneem. In die Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede dui leidende/rigtinggewende aanwysers op 'n betroubare verhouding wat betref die saamgestelde meelopende indeks vir die tydperk 1970 tot 1980 in die onderhawige studie. Daarna is daar 'n afname in die verhouding, wat 'n negatiewe impak het op die voorspellingsvermoe van die model.