M.Phil. (Economics) / The study of certain minerals and their relationship to economic indicators requires not only research to establish the economic significance of these commodities, but also the use of statistical techniques to place the data in context by analogy with cyclical events and changing economic circumstances. It is inevitable that a great deal of information will be generated, and that extensive use must be made of the computer throughout the work. The approach used involves the extensive use of graphical and statistical methods to demonstrate the market relationships with time and with selected economic indicators, of six non-ferrous minerals, lead, nickel, tin, copper, aluminium and zinc. These minerals were selected because they represent a good cross-section of the metals that find wide applications in industry, and are economically important. Comparative analyses are made of South Africa as a major producer and exporter of minerals, and of this country's main trading partners, West Germany, Japan and the USA, the major consumers and importers of minerals in the Western World. The statistical information for this study covers a 30 year period, namely 1953 to 1982, and is examined on the premise that general economic variables are causal factors in determining the cyclical behaviour of the market for minerals. Therefore it is obligatory to first examine and explain the nature of business and market cycles and events in the Republic of South Africa, the USA, West Germany, and Japan, and then to relate these to the supply and consumption of the minerals concerned. The relationships between production of minerals for use as raw materials, the production of refined mineral products and the consumption, prices, and stocks of these commodities are explored, and the behaviour of these parameters is explained by reference to familiar and well-used economic indicators such as the Gross National Product (GNP) and the Consumer Price Index(CPI). Subtleties in the relationships between the selected minerals and economic indicators are presented. Two.. fundamental approaches, graphical and statistical, are used in the formal analysis of the problem of quantifcation of the significance of minerals as economic indicators. Simultaneous enhancement, both graphically and statistically, between the parameters has important implications regarding the conclusions drawn in this thesis. A central issue is the statistical evaluation of all the possible combinations of the selected minerals and economic indicators, based on correlation coefficients. Promising results are classified on the basis of high levels of correlation between the various parameters. The consistency with which a mineral achieves high correlation coefficients is defined by a scoring system, whereby sequences of correlation coefficient values are totalled and averaged. Cause and effect cannot simply be assumed, nor can it be proved by statistics. However, statistical verification procedures provide a great deal of assistance in the interpretation of correlation coefficients. The results obtained from the statistical analysis show that some mineral commodities are more closely linked to overall economic conditions than others. These are aluminium, copper and lead...

Thesis (MComm (Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / The goal of this thesis is twofold: it aims, firstly, at a description of cycles in South African financial variables and, secondly, at the evaluation of the relationship between cycles in financial variables and the South African business cycle. The study is based on the original business cycle framework of Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell, but incorporates recent contributions by Australian economists Don Harding and Adrian Pagan, as well as the work of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York. Part I of the thesis is concerned with the characteristics of cycles in financial variables within the South African context. The first chapter presents a taxonomy of the concepts of classical, deviation and growth rate cycles in order to establish a simple reference framework for cycle concepts. At this point the concept of a ‘turning point cycle’ is introduced, with particular focus on the non-parametric method of turning point identification, following Harding and Pagan’s recent translation of the original work of Burns and Mitchell into a modern version with a sound statistical basis. With the turning points identified the dissertation proceeds to an exposition of descriptive measures of expansion and contraction phases. The second chapter entails an empirical report on descriptive results for amplitude and duration characteristics of cycle phases in the different financial variables, with separate reports for classical cycles and growth rate cycles. Chapter two concludes with a series of tables in which the behaviour of cycle phases are compared for different financial variables. Part II considers financial variables as potential leading indicators of the business cycle in South Africa. Chapter 3 introduces the concept ‘leading indicator’ to this end and distinguishes the original concept from modern, econometric versions. The chapter then introduces a framework for evaluating potential leading indicators, which emphasises two requirements: firstly, broad co-movement between cycles in the proposed leading indicator and the business cycle and, secondly, stability in the number of months between turning points in cycles of the proposed indicator and business cycle turning points. The capacity of potential indicators to meet these criteria is measured via the concordance statistic and the ‘lead profile’ respectively. Chapter four provides the statistical basis for the concordance statistic, after which the empirical results (presented separately for classical and growth rate cycles) are presented. The fifth chapter presents the statistical test for the stability of the interval by which cyclical turning points in the potential indicator lead turning points in the business cycle. Empirical results are presented in both tabular form (the ‘lead profile’) and graphical form (the ‘lead profile chart’). As far as can be determined, this analysis represents the first application of the ‘lead profile’ evaluation to financial variables. Chapter six concludes by presenting a summary of the results and a brief comparison with findings from an econometric study of leading indicators for South Africa.

The study examines the effect of oil price changes on selected economic indicators in South Africa. A VAR-5 model was applied to quarterly data of 1990:Q1-2012:Q4 estimating the impulse response functions, variance decomposition and Granger-causality tests. The findings allow for a conclusion that oil significantly affects the exchange rate and an inverse link between oil and GDP exists. A unidirectional relation is found where oil Granger-causes the exchange rate and GDP Granger-causes oil in South Africa.

The study investigates the relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa for the period 2002-2009 using monthly data. This is done by constructing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study specifies a business cycle model with the business cycle coincident indicator (BC) regressed against, the All Share Price Index (ALSI), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Money Supply (M1), Inflation (CPIX) and the Prime Overdraft Rate (POR). The ALSI represents stock market performance whilst the rest of the variables are to enhance model specification. The study found a positive relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa. The results also indicated that business cycles are positively related to the lagged variable of the coincident indicator and money supply. In addition, the findings also reveal that BC is negatively related to interest rates and the real effective exchange rate.

ABI has a sophisticated and effective distribution fleet which delivers canned and bottled non alcoholic beverages to 12000 wholesale and retail outlets in the Durban Metropole and to 46000 outlets nationally. Delivery is normally executed once per week, 48 hours after a separate order is taken by an account manager. In the more rural or "emerging market" areas traditional retail outlets such as supermarkets and superettes are scarce and reliance is made on spaza and house shops. Cash flow and storage space is limited. The sales and distribution calls are expensive, relative to the size order that the spaza would place. Spaza shop owners rely on distributors or collect from wholesalers. These outlets often run out of stock. Sales revenue is thus not maximized. Outlet development is marginal. The writer embarked on a research project to develop a sustainable and cost effective Sales and Distribution model in order to address these constraints in the Emerging Market territories of ABI Durban. Traditional theory turns to channel distribution as a means to effectively reaching an entire retail market. Levels are thus added to the distribution channel. The research however showed that service levels are sometimes compromised. The model that was developed returns ABI to DSD (direct service delivery) via specially designed vehicles and combines the function of "preseller" and "delivery merchandiser" on a dedicated route. Although a marginal increase in cost per case has been experienced, deliveries are direct to store, at least twice per week. Sales growth in these routes have been in excess of 85% while the total Umlazi area grows at 13%. Customer service levels, as surveyed, are exceptional. Although the model was specifically designed by ABI Durban for use in Durban, the concept has been adopted as a best practice and is being "rolled out" across the business. By the end of 2005, 10% of ABl's fleet nationally will function as MOTD (Merchandiser Order Taker Driver) routes. Additional vehicles have been ordered for delivery during the period July 2005 to September 2005 in order for this to be achieved. This model has assisted ABI in achieving its goal of maximizing DSD and lifting service levels to its customers (retailers). Revenue has increased significantly along with volume in these areas. Invariably MOTD acts as a significant barrier to competitor entry in those geographic areas where it is utilized. The Merchandiser Order Taker Driver (MOTD) model is successful and has potential for wider use, even in more developed markets. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2005.

The control of inflation requires a forecast of the future path of the price level and its indicators. Targeting inflation directly requires that the central bank (SARB) form forecasts of the likely path of prices paying close attention to a variety of indicators that shows the predictive power of inflation in the past periods. Inflation indicators might be cointegrated with the rate of inflation to predict the future inflation rates. Forecasting inflation may be very difficult at a particular period due to the fact that the array candidate indicators of inflation may neither be very stable nor very strong in their relationships with the rate of inflation. Although this might be the case, this research uses testable effects of each of the South African inflation indicators to the rate of inflation using econometrics tools to find that they have a long run trend with the rate of inflation in South Africa. It has been found that each of the indicator variables has a long run relationship with the rate of inflation. The major conclusion is that inflation indicator variables like money supply (M3), oil price, gold price, total employment, interest rates, exchange rates and output growth can be useful inflation indicators in targeting the future trends of inflation in South Africa according to the data used in this research although some studies in some countries find that inflation targeting is an insufficient framework for monetary policy in the presence of financial exuberance. The money supply, the oil prices, interest rates, the exchange rates, prices of gold, the employment and output growth are co-integrated with the rate of inflation representing a long-run relationship.

This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Sustainable development has gained great interest at global, national and local community levels. For instance, governments, civil societies, the commercial sector as well as local communities have responded to the agreed framework of UNCED known as Agenda 21, developed at the „Earth Summit‟ held at Rio de Janeiro in 1992, inter alia through the development of indicators aimed at monitoring and evaluating the achievement of sustainable development. As a result, different tools to measure the level of sustainability have been developed and applied in many cities globally. These include different types of indicators, namely environmental, social, and economic performance monitoring indicators, as well as combined indices. Since cities are dynamic complex open systems with interrelated social, economic and environmental systems, and sustainable development cannot be absolutely achieved, integrated sustainable development indicators that concurrently address social, economic and environmental dimensions are crucial to aid in monitoring sustainable development particularly in any given urban system. This study gives an overview of these indicators and indices. The South Africa government has acknowledged in both its National Framework for Sustainable Development of September 2006 and the Draft National Strategy for Sustainable Development and Action Plan of May 2010 that like other cities globally, cities in this country face similar challenges particularly due to urbanisation. In this study, the focus is on evaluating the sustainability challenges of the City of Cape Town and the role sustainability indicators could play in helping to achieve sustainable development objectives. This is supported by a review of the so called „sustainable cities‟ and in particular how the Cities of Seattle (USA), Santa Monica (USA) and Curitiba (Brazil) have tried to address urban challenges. To meet the study objective of recommending the type and a process of developing indicators that will aid in improving sustainability in the City of Cape Town, selected indicators and indexes developed globally, nationally and for other cities are critically reviewed. Selected policies, plans and indicators developed by the South African national government, the Western Cape provincial government, and the City of Cape Town are reviewed. The review aims at investigating whether the existing policies and indicators were useful in addressing sustainability challenges particularly in the City of Cape Town. The review focuses on the policy objectives to assess whether the policies contradicted or were supportive of each other, the existence or lack thereof of gaps in the policies, and whether local communities and other stakeholders were involved in decision making processes. The findings suggests that although sustainable development is addressed in the policy documents of all three spheres of government in South Africa, the implementation has not yet been effective – and the City of Cape Town is no exception based on published reports such as the State of Cape Town Report. On the basis of the lessons derived from the success stories of cities like Seattle, Santa Monica, and Curitiba towards achieving sustainability, several recommendations are suggested to assist the City of Cape Town in developing, implementing, and reporting on sustainability indicators. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Op internasionale, nasionale asook plaaslike gemeenskapsvlakke het volhoubare ontwikkeling groot belangstelling gelok. In reaksie op die ooreengekome raamwerk van UNCED, Agenda 21, ontwikkel by die “Earth Summit” (Rio de Janeiro, 1992), is aanwysers gemik op die monitering en implementering van volhoubare ontwikkeling deur regerings, burgerlike samelewings, die kommersiële sektor asook plaaslike gemeenskappe ontwikkel. Dit het gelei tot die ontwikkeling en implementering van verskillende instrumente vir die meet van volhoubaarheid in verskeie stede wêreldwyd. Hierdie instrumente sluit in verskillende aanwysers, ondermeer omgewings-, sosiale-, ekonomiese- en prestasie aanwysers asook gekombineerde indekse. Omdat stede dinamies komplekse ope sisteme met interafhanklike sosiale, ekonomiese en omgewingssisteme is, en volhoubare ontwikkeling nie absoluut bereikbaar is nie, is geintegreerde volhoubare ontwikkelings aanwysers wat sosiale, ekonomiese en omgewings dimensies gelyktydig aanspreek van kritieke belang in die monitering van volhoubare ontwikkeling, spesifiek in enige gegewe stedelike sisteem. In beide sy nasionale raamwerk vir volhoubare ontwikkeling (Julie 2008) en nasionale strategie vir volhoubare ontwikkeling en Aksie plan (weergawe van 20 Mei 2010) het die Suid Afrikaanse regering erken dat plaaslike stede, soos ander wêreldwyd, dieselfde uitdagings in die gesig staar veral as gevolg van verstedeliking. Die fokus van hierdie studie was die evaluering van die volhoubaarheids-uitdagings van die Stad Kaapstad en die moontlike rol wat volhoubaarheids-aanwysers kan speel in ʼn poging om volhoubare ontwikkelings doelwitte te bereik. Hierdie word ondersteun deur ʼn oorsig van die sogenaamde “volhoubare stede” en spesifiek hoe stede soos Seattle (VSA), Santa Monica (VSA), en Curitiba (Brasilië) stedelike uitdagings probeer aanspreek het. Ten einde die studie doelwit aangaande die aanbeveling van die ontwikkelingsproses van aanwysers en indekse vir die verbetering van volhoubaarheid in die Stad Kaapstad te bereik, is verskeie internasionale, nasionale sowel as stedelike volhoubare ontwikkelings indekse krities geëvalueer. Geselekteerde beleid, planne en aanwysers wat deur die Suid Afrikaanse Nasionale regering, die Wes Kaapse provinsiale regering en die Stad Kaapstad ontwikkel is, is ondersoek. Die doel van hierdie evaluasie was om vas te stel of bestaande beleid en aanwysers nuttig is, in die aanspreek van volhoubaarheids-uitdagings spesifiek in die Stad Kaapstad. Die fokus van die evaluasie was op beleidsdoelwitte ten einde te bepaal of: verskeie beleid teenstrydigheid toon of andersins ondersteunend is, die bestaan of gebrek aan leemtes in beleid en of plaaslike gemeenskappe en of ander belange groepe in die besluitnemingsproses betrokke is. Die bevindinge dui daarop dat alhoewel volhoubare ontwikkeling in beleidsdokumente van al drie sfere van die Suid Afrikaanse regering aangespreek word, die implementering daarvan nog nie so doeltreffend is nie - en gebaseer op gepubliseerde verslae soos die stand van Kaapstad, is die Stad van Kaapstad nie ʼn uitsondering nie. Na aanleiding van lesse geleer uit die sukses verhale van stede soos Seattle, Santa Monica en Curitiba in die bereiking van volhoubare ontwikkeling is verskeie aanbevelings gemaak om die Stad Kaapstad by te staan in die ontwikkeling, implementering, en rapportering van volhoubaarheids-aanwysers.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: An alternative measure of progress to GDP was evaluated in the Bakgatla-Ba-Kgafela tribe (in total N = 119) using subjective wellbeing or happiness. The major dimensions of happiness were assumed to be physical, mental, social, spiritual, educational, environmental, occupational, and financial wellbeing or income and governance. Amongst the Bakgatla, correlation testing identified two clusters or core sub-sets of relationships, based on the strength of relationships, which appear to work in parallel to one another, with divergent outcomes of either increased happiness or income. The first cluster is related to traditional economic rationality and consists of Education Level, Income and Employment Security. The second cluster, more closely related to principles of sustainable development, consists of Social Wellbeing, Environmental Wellbeing and Happiness. An insignificant correlation between Income and Happiness exists. A multiple regression analysis was conducted with Happiness as the dependent variable and the major wellbeing dimensions as the independent variables (R² = .286). Statistically significant Standardized Beta’s calculated in the regression analysis are Social wellbeing (0.464), Educational level (-0.226), Governance (0.205) and Physical wellbeing (0.194). Although a cause-and-effect relationship can’t be assumed, the supposition is that ceteris paribus: • Happy people tend to have higher levels of social wellbeing or social capital; • The more educated people are, the less happy they are; • The more trust people have in public institutions and the state, the happier they are; and • Happy people tend to be healthier. Therefore, holding all other explanatory variables constant, it can be assumed that income has no bearing on subjective wellbeing. Therefore we reject the Null Hypothesis that the Bakgatla’s progress is purely determined by their annual per capita income. The relationship between income and subjective wellbeing for the Bakgatla follows global patterns - an initial increase in happiness as income increases is pronounced but ‘flattens’ somewhat as a higher level of income is reached and diminishes as very high levels of income are achieved. The critical turning point where income has a diminishing rate of return on satisfaction is around R20 000 per annum per person. This corroborates the human needs theories which proposes that a hierarchy of needs for human beings exist and until the basic needs are met, higher needs cannot be met. The present findings have implications for the Bakgatla: in order to increase happiness and promote development, the Bakgatla should focus on four key aspects: meeting basic needs; increasing social capital; increasing trust in the Tribal Authorities; and improving physical health. In addition, education and environmental wellbeing should also be focal points but changes need to be made to the education curriculum so that there is a strong focus on sustainable development. An important policy implication that the Bakgatla need to consider, is balancing the needs of the current generation with the needs of future generations. Economic growth or income may bring a certain amount of happiness; environmental destruction, crime and human health implications may outweigh these benefits and happiness in both the current and future generations. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie is subjektiewe welstand of geluk as alternatief vir bruto binnelandse produk (BBP) as vooruitgangsmaatstaf by die Bakgatla-Ba-Kgafela-stam (altesaam N = 119) ondersoek. Die veronderstelde hoofaspekte van geluk wat in die studie getoets is, is fisiese welstand, geesteswelstand, maatskaplike welstand, spirituele welstand, opvoedkundige welstand, omgewingswelstand, beroepswelstand, finansiële welstand of inkomste, en bestuur. Korrelasietoetse onder die Bakgatla het twee beduidende groepe of kernsubstelle verwantskappe uitgewys, welke groepe oënskynlik gelyklopend funksioneer, met uiteenlopende dog nieverwante uitkomste van hetsy verhoogde geluk of verhoogde inkomste. Die eerste groep hou verband met tradisionele ekonomiese rasionaliteit, en bestaan uit onderrigvlak, inkomste en werksekerheid. Die tweede groep, wat eerder met beginsels van volhoubare ontwikkeling saamhang, bestaan uit maatskaplike welstand, omgewingswelstand en geluk. Die studie toon onbeduidende verband tussen inkomste en geluk. Meervoudige regressieontleding is met geluk as afhanklike veranderlike en die hoofwelstandsaspekte as onafhanklike veranderlikes uitgevoer (R² = 0,286). Statisties beduidende gestandaardiseerde betakoëffisiënte wat in die regressieontleding bereken is, is maatskaplike welstand (0,464), opvoedingsvlak (-0,226), bestuur (0,205) en fisiese welstand (0,194). Hoewel oorsaak-en-gevolg-verwantskap nie aanvaar kan word nie, word daar vermoed dat, met alle ander faktore gelyk: • gelukkige mense geneig is om hoër vlakke van maatskaplike welstand of maatskaplike kapitaal te geniet; • hoe meer opgevoed mense is, hoe ongelukkiger is hulle; • hoe meer vertroue mense in openbare instellings en die staat het, hoe gelukkiger is hulle; en • gelukkige mense geneig is om gesonder te wees. Indien alle ander verklarende veranderlikes konstant gehou word, word daar dus aanvaar dat inkomste geen verband met subjektiewe welstand toon nie. Daarom word die nulhipotese dat die Bakgatla se vooruitgang alleenlik deur hul jaarlikse inkomste per capita bepaal word, verwerp. Die verwantskap tussen inkomste en subjektiewe welstand vir die Bakgatla volg internasionale patrone: Aanvanklik neem geluk duidelik toe namate inkomste verhoog, plat dan effens af namate hoër inkomstevlak bereik word, en verminder aansienlik wanneer baie hoë inkomstevlakke bereik word. Die kritiese draaipunt waar inkomste verlaagde opbrengskoers op tevredenheid toon, is sowat R20 000 per jaar per persoon. Dít staaf die menslikebehoefte-teorie wat aan die hand doen dat mense oor hiërargie van behoeftes beskik en dat daar eers in basiese behoeftes voorsien moet word voordat behoeftes hoër op in die hiërargie aan die beurt kan kom. Hierdie bevindinge het bepaalde implikasies vir die Bakgatla: Ten einde geluk te verhoog en ontwikkeling aan te moedig, behoort die Bakgatla op vier kernaspekte te konsentreer, naamlik voorsiening in basiese behoeftes, die vermeerdering van maatskaplike kapitaal, die verhoging van vertroue in die stamowerhede, en verbetering van liggaamlike gesondheid. Voorts behoort opvoedkundige en omgewingswelstand ook fokuspunte te wees, maar moet die onderrigkurrikulum aangepas word om sterker klem op volhoubare ontwikkeling te plaas. Belangrike beleidsimplikasie wat die Bakgatla moet oorweeg, is om ewewig te vind tussen die behoeftes van die huidige geslag en die behoeftes van toekomstige geslagte. Ekonomiese groei of inkomste kan inderdaad sekere hoeveelheid geluk skep. Tog kan omgewingsvernietiging, misdaad en swak menslike gesondheid hierdie voordele en geluk in sowel die huidige as toekomstige geslagte oorskadu. Bykomende navorsing word vir die toekoms aanbeveel.