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A disaggregated Marshallian macroeconometric model of South AfricaNgoie, Jacques Kibambe. January 2008 (has links)
Thesis (PhD(Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references.
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Possible scenarios for Africa's economic futures towards 2055Giyose, Dorrington January 2014 (has links)
This academic discourse is a research treatise that is submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Masters in Business Administration (MBA) degree at the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University (NMMU). Purpose – The purpose of this treatise is to develop four possible scenarios for Africa’s economic futures over the next 40 years, i.e. towards 2055. This study will expose the possible, probable, plausible, and preferable (desirable) scenarios for Africa towards 2055. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study employs a Futures Studies methodology that is known as scenario planning. The key variables of the scenarios are clustered as follows: Good governance and good economic growth; Good governance and bad economic growth; Bad governance and bad economic growth; as well as bad governance and good economic growth. Each of these scenarios begin with the current state of affairs in Africa. As such, the four scenarios in this study are informed by the current affairs in African countries as is internationally observed by scientists, researchers, as well as global views and opinions. Practical implications – This academic discourse provides useful insight into the causality relationship between the political, economic, sociological, technological, ecological, as well as legal factors (PESTEL factors) on the continent and the possible scenarios for Africa’s economic futures towards 2055. The aforementioned causality relationship between the abovementioned variables allows for insight into the drivers for change for Africa as well as in what way to anticipate these changes in accordance with scenario planning. Originality/Value: This treatise looks at the economic futures of Africa over the next 40 years from the point of view of African planners and African decision-makers.
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Ekonomiese ontledingstegnieke : 'n kritiese evaluering09 February 2015 (has links)
M.Com. (Economics) / The main purpose of this study was the descriptive analysis and theoretical evaluation of various economic forecasting techniques applicable to a wide variety of forecasting problems. A comprehensive review was given of the basic structure of the techniques (theory and mechanics). their appropriateness ,In different forecasting circumstances, their technical and other limitations, advantages and disadvantages, together with a guide to the better understanding and interpretation of their results. Many of the problem areas related to economic forecasting can be avoided or at least alleviated, by a proper study of the adequacy and other distinguishing characteristics of a specific forecasting methodology. Forecasting accuracy is a major interest of anyone concerned with the future. There are many different ways of saying that the future belongs to those who plan for It best. This Is certainly true in economics as the practice thereof is filled with uncertainties. The topic of this dissertation is, therefore, very relevant In today's modern world. Diagnosis and forecasting have become inevitable with the growth of the" risk factor" In this world. Efforts are constantly made to eliminate, neutralize or at least decrease as far as possible, the risk attendant to this uncertainty by accurately predicting the future values of important variables. The importance and need for improved economic forecasting has, without a doubt, grown tremendously in recent years. The list of forecasting application Is quite lengthy as virtually every important operating decision depends to some extent on a forecast. Probably the simplest definition of forecasting is that it Is a process which has as its objective the explaining and prediction of events or conditions which will occur at some future time. More precisely, economic forecasting attempts to predict the change In Important economic phenomena. The forecast must however not be seen as an end product, but rather as an ongoing process of input In the decision-making process. Forecasting Is both an art and a science, but although II is a form of art it Is not without structure. As with any worthwhile art form. the forecasting process Is definitive and systematic. A number of special tools and techniques can be used In predicting the future " values of economic variables. The objective selection among these forecasting techniques is extremely difficult. The many different types of forecasting methods available can be grouped into two main categories: (i) the qualitative forecasting methods and (II) the quantitative methods.
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Spesifikasie van vooruitskattingsfunksies vir nywerheidsgasse02 June 2014 (has links)
M.Com. (Economics) / Please refer to full text to view abstract
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The potential short and long term benefits of major infrastructure projects to the South African economyNhlapo, Sibusiso Johannes 17 March 2014 (has links)
M.Ing. (Engineering Management) / As a result of its direct relations with the different sectors of the economy, the construction industry is used as a tool by governments around the world for economic recovery. The South African government has taken such a stance following the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, by proposing the government‘s infrastructure spending and expansion programme for economic growth and development. The South African economy took a stalling from 4.1% in 2007 to 2.3% in 2008 and then turning negative in 2009. This research paper seeks to gather insight of the relationship between construction output and economic growth, as well as the potential long and short term benefits of major infrastructure projects to the South African economy. South Africa; as a developing country and with its construction industry currently in the upward trend, there are lessons that can be learnt from the developed countries. To this end, trends in construction output and GDP have been scrutinised to examine any pattern of development relating the construction industry and its relationship with the economy as a whole. The examination spanned over 32 countries grouped according to their respective development status. With South Africa‘s significant increase in the annual change in construction output between 2004 and 2008, amid developments of the FIFA world cup, confirmed the relation between construction investment and economic growth. The contribution of the construction industry to GDP for developed countries all follow the same trend of having high contributions in the beginning of development declining as less and less new infrastructure is required by the country. The contribution of construction averaged at 6 per cent for the entire duration of analysis between 1970 and 2011. Compared to international standards, South Africa‘s contribution of construction to GDP is determined to be very low at 3 per cent for the duration 1963 and 2011. Further, the construction industry has displayed characteristics of instability for South Africa when compared to developed countries over the same period.
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Forecasting cyclical turning points in the South African economy using an index of leading indicators in conjunction with a probabilistic analytical approachCook, M. P. 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this paper the effectiveness of "transplanting" a particular methodology of a
probabilistic approach is assessed in a South African economic context. The
methodology makes use of leading indicators which are used in regression models, with
a dichotomous response variable, assuming values of 0 or 1 to indicate expansion or
contraction of economic activity. The backbone of the study closely replicates the work
of Nazmi (1993) and his work on turning point prediction. The recorded results indicate
an ability of the model to accurately forecast businesscycle turning points in the 1980s.
In the period of the 1990s, the model displays a diminished capacity to forecast the
turning points with acceptable accuracy. Leading indicators, in the South African
experience, show a reliable leading relationship to the composite coincident index in the
current study period between 1970 and 1980 and thereafter this relationship decreases,
impacting negatively upon the forecasting ability of the model. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie word die doeltreffende 'oorplanting' van 'n bepaalde metodologie van
'n waarskynlikheidsbenadering tot ekonomiese vooruitskatting in 'n Suid-Afrikaanse
konteks assesseer. Die metodologie benut leidende aanwysers wat in regressiemodelle
gebruik word, met 'n tweeledige responsveranderlike wat die waardes 0 of 1 aanneem
om die uitbreiding of inkrimping van ekonomiese aktiwiteit aan te dui. Die kern van
hierdie studie reflekteer tot 'n groot mate die werk van Nader Nazmi oor draaipunt
voorspellings. Resultate toon aan dat Nazmi se model wel sakesiklusse se draaipunte
akkuraat voorspel het gedurende die 1980's. Gedurende die 1990's het hierdie model
se voorspeIlingsakkuraatheid egter afgeneem. In die Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede dui
leidende/rigtinggewende aanwysers op 'n betroubare verhouding wat betref die
saamgestelde meelopende indeks vir die tydperk 1970 tot 1980 in die onderhawige
studie. Daarna is daar 'n afname in die verhouding, wat 'n negatiewe impak het op die
voorspellingsvermoe van die model. In hierdie studie word die doeltreffende 'oorplanting' van 'n bepaalde metodologie van
'n waarskynlikheidsbenadering tot ekonomiese vooruitskatting in 'n Suid-Afrikaanse
konteks assesseer. Die metodologie benut leidende aanwysers wat in regressiemodelle
gebruik word, met 'n tweeledige responsveranderlike wat die waardes 0 of 1 aanneem
om die uitbreiding of inkrimping van ekonomiese aktiwiteit aan te dui. Die kern van
hierdie studie reflekteer tot 'n groot mate die werk van Nader Nazmi oor draaipunt
voorspellings. Resultate toon aan dat Nazmi se model wel sakesiklusse se draaipunte
akkuraat voorspel het gedurende die 1980's. Gedurende die 1990's het hierdie model
se voorspeIlingsakkuraatheid egter afgeneem. In die Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede dui
leidende/rigtinggewende aanwysers op 'n betroubare verhouding wat betref die
saamgestelde meelopende indeks vir die tydperk 1970 tot 1980 in die onderhawige
studie. Daarna is daar 'n afname in die verhouding, wat 'n negatiewe impak het op die
voorspellingsvermoe van die model.
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The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycleBoshoff, Willem Hendrik 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MComm (Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / The goal of this thesis is twofold: it aims, firstly, at a description of cycles in South
African financial variables and, secondly, at the evaluation of the relationship
between cycles in financial variables and the South African business cycle. The study
is based on the original business cycle framework of Arthur Burns and Wesley
Mitchell, but incorporates recent contributions by Australian economists Don Harding
and Adrian Pagan, as well as the work of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in
New York.
Part I of the thesis is concerned with the characteristics of cycles in financial variables
within the South African context. The first chapter presents a taxonomy of the
concepts of classical, deviation and growth rate cycles in order to establish a simple
reference framework for cycle concepts. At this point the concept of a ‘turning point
cycle’ is introduced, with particular focus on the non-parametric method of turning
point identification, following Harding and Pagan’s recent translation of the original
work of Burns and Mitchell into a modern version with a sound statistical basis. With
the turning points identified the dissertation proceeds to an exposition of descriptive
measures of expansion and contraction phases. The second chapter entails an
empirical report on descriptive results for amplitude and duration characteristics of
cycle phases in the different financial variables, with separate reports for classical
cycles and growth rate cycles. Chapter two concludes with a series of tables in which
the behaviour of cycle phases are compared for different financial variables.
Part II considers financial variables as potential leading indicators of the business
cycle in South Africa. Chapter 3 introduces the concept ‘leading indicator’ to this end
and distinguishes the original concept from modern, econometric versions. The
chapter then introduces a framework for evaluating potential leading indicators, which
emphasises two requirements: firstly, broad co-movement between cycles in the
proposed leading indicator and the business cycle and, secondly, stability in the
number of months between turning points in cycles of the proposed indicator and
business cycle turning points. The capacity of potential indicators to meet these
criteria is measured via the concordance statistic and the ‘lead profile’ respectively.
Chapter four provides the statistical basis for the concordance statistic, after which the empirical results (presented separately for classical and growth rate cycles) are
presented. The fifth chapter presents the statistical test for the stability of the interval
by which cyclical turning points in the potential indicator lead turning points in the
business cycle. Empirical results are presented in both tabular form (the ‘lead
profile’) and graphical form (the ‘lead profile chart’). As far as can be determined,
this analysis represents the first application of the ‘lead profile’ evaluation to financial
variables. Chapter six concludes by presenting a summary of the results and a brief
comparison with findings from an econometric study of leading indicators for South
Africa.
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Business cycles and stock market performance in South AfricaMuchaonyerwa, Forward January 2011 (has links)
The study investigates the relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa for the period 2002-2009 using monthly data. This is done by constructing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study specifies a business cycle model with the business cycle coincident indicator (BC) regressed against, the All Share Price Index (ALSI), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Money Supply (M1), Inflation (CPIX) and the Prime Overdraft Rate (POR). The ALSI represents stock market performance whilst the rest of the variables are to enhance model specification. The study found a positive relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa. The results also indicated that business cycles are positively related to the lagged variable of the coincident indicator and money supply. In addition, the findings also reveal that BC is negatively related to interest rates and the real effective exchange rate.
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Forecasting economic growth from the capital and share markets : the South African case revisitedCrawford, Robert Cameron 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The relationship between asset markets and economic growth is well documented in
economic literature.
Harvey (1989), conducted a study of the relationship between interest rate spreads,
share market prices and real economic growth in the USA. He developed a model
to forecast real economic growth using interest rate spreads and share market
prices and concluded that interest rate spreads produced superior forecasts to those
based on share market information. He further established that the forecasts
obtained from his simple model, which made no provision for serial correlation,
compared favourably with those of leading economic forecasters in the USA.
Van der Mescht (1991) undertook a similar study based on interest rate spreads and
share market prices in South Africa. He concluded that there were no significant
differences between the capital market and share market as predictors of economic
growth in South Africa when provision was made in Harvey's model for the effects of
serial correlation. His results indicated that both the capital and share markets were
able to explain more than 65 percent of the variation in economic growth over the
period of his study and that the forecasts were able to accurately predict the turning
points in the economy and compared favourably with other leading economic
forecasters.
A similar study to Van der Mescht's using updated South African data found that in
general the conclusions reached by Van der Mescht remain valid. A difference
which is evident, however, is that, whereas previously, there was little difference
between the results of the interest rate spread and share market index model, the
interest rate spread model produced better results over the period of this study
(1981 - 1998). / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die verwantskap tussen die kapitaal- en aandelemark en ekonomiese groei is
deeglik in die ekonomiese literatuur ge-dokumenteer.
Harvey (1989) het navorsing gedoen oor die verwantskap tussen die
termynstruktuur van rentekoerse, aandelepryse en reële ekonomiese groei in die
VSA. Hy het 'n vooruitskattingsmodel ontwikkel vir ekonomiese groei, gebaseer op
die termynstruktuur van rentekoerse en aandelepryse en het tot die gevolgtrekking
gekom dat die termynstruktuur van rentekoerse 'n beter vooruitskatter van
ekonomiese groei is as die aandelemark, en dat sy model, wat geen voorsiening vir
outokorrelasie maak nie, goed vergelyk met ander ekonometriese modelle wat
ekonomiese groei in die VSA vooruitskat.
Van der Mescht (1991) het 'n soortgelyke studie, gebaseer op die termynstruktuur
van rentekoerse en aandelepyse in Suid Afrika, onderneem. Hy het tot die
gevolgtrekking gekom dat daar geen betekenisvolle verskil is tussen die kapitaal en
aandelemark as vooruitskatters van ekonomiese groei indien daar vir
outokorrelasie in die modelle voorsiening gemaak word nie. Sy resultate dui aan dat
die kapitaal- en aandelemark meer as 65 persent van die persentasieverandering in
die ekonomiese groei kon verklaar oor die termyn van sy studie, dat dit akkurate
vooruitskattings van die draaipunte in die Suid Afrikaanse ekonomie gelewer het, en
dat dit gunstig vergelyk met ander ekonomiese vooruitskatters.
'n Soortgelyke studie as die van Van der Mescht is onderneem, met die jongste
inligting omtrent termynstruktuur van rentekoerse en aandelepryse in Suid Afrika. In
die algemeen is die gevolgtrekkings van Van der Mescht steeds van toepassing.
Daar is egter aangetoon dat, waar daar voorheen geen betekenisvolle verskil tussen
die kapitaal- en aandelemark as vooruitskatters van ekonomiese groei was nie, die
termynstruktuur van rentekoerse beter resultate oor die termyn van hierdie studie
gelewer het. (1981 -1998).
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The development of a sustainable and cost effective sales and distribution model for FMCG products, specifically non alcoholic beverages, in the emerging markets of the greater Durban area.Brand, Trevor Stanley. January 2005 (has links)
ABI has a sophisticated and effective distribution fleet which delivers canned and bottled non alcoholic beverages to 12000 wholesale and retail outlets in the Durban Metropole and to 46000 outlets nationally. Delivery is normally executed once per week, 48 hours after a separate order is taken by an account manager. In the more rural or "emerging market" areas traditional retail outlets such as supermarkets and superettes are scarce and reliance is made on spaza and house shops. Cash flow and storage space is limited. The sales and distribution calls are expensive, relative to the size order that the spaza would place. Spaza shop owners rely on distributors or collect from wholesalers. These outlets often run out of stock. Sales revenue is thus not maximized. Outlet development is marginal. The writer embarked on a research project to develop a sustainable and cost effective Sales and Distribution model in order to address these constraints in the Emerging Market territories of ABI Durban. Traditional theory turns to channel distribution as a means to effectively reaching an entire retail market. Levels are thus added to the distribution channel. The research however showed that service levels are sometimes compromised. The model that was developed returns ABI to DSD (direct service delivery) via specially designed vehicles and combines the function of "preseller" and "delivery merchandiser" on a dedicated route. Although a marginal increase in cost per case has been experienced, deliveries are direct to store, at least twice per week. Sales growth in these routes have been in excess of 85% while the total Umlazi area grows at 13%. Customer service levels, as surveyed, are exceptional. Although the model was specifically designed by ABI Durban for use in Durban, the concept has been adopted as a best practice and is being "rolled out" across the business. By the end of 2005, 10% of ABl's fleet nationally will function as MOTD (Merchandiser Order Taker Driver) routes. Additional vehicles have been ordered for delivery during the period July 2005 to September 2005 in order for this to be achieved. This model has assisted ABI in achieving its goal of maximizing DSD and lifting service levels to its customers (retailers). Revenue has increased significantly along with volume in these areas. Invariably MOTD acts as a significant barrier to competitor entry in those geographic areas where it is utilized. The Merchandiser Order Taker Driver (MOTD) model is successful and has potential for wider use, even in more developed markets. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2005.
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