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Analýza trendů v řízení devizových rezerv centrálních bank / Analysis of trends in the management of foreign exchange reserves of central banksGluhov, Anastasiya January 2013 (has links)
This diploma thesis is focused on analysis of foreign exchange reserves of central banks. The first part of the work explains the most important theoretical concepts, that are necessary for further understanding of the topic of the work. This section will also describe the main criteria which determines the optimal level of foreign exchange reserves. It will be also discussed about a new trend that is known as accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and about the sourcrces, the lead to accumulation. The following part explains in detail the concept of reserves currency and tells about the currency structure of reserves. The empirical part will be devoted to the analysis and management of the foreign exchange reserve in Israel.
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Essays on International Capital FlowsWang, Mengxue January 2020 (has links)
This dissertation consists of three essays on international capital flows. The first chapter documents the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and the simultaneous increase in the foreign direct investment (FDI) for emerging market economies. The second chapter discusses the performance of FDI firms and domestic firms in creating jobs using firm-level data from Orbis. The third chapter studies the proper exchange rate and monetary policy when emerging market economies denominate their external debt in foreign currencies.
In Chapter 1, I study why emerging market economies hold high levels of foreign exchange reserves. I argue that foreign exchange reserves help emerging markets attract foreign direct investment. This incentive can play an important role when analyzing central banks' reserve accumulation. I study the interaction between foreign exchange reserves and foreign direct investment to explain the level of reserves using a small open economy model. The model puts the domestic entities and international investors in the same picture. The optimal level of the reserve-to-GDP ratio generated by the model is close to the level observed in East Asian economies. Additionally, the model generates positive co-movement between technology growth and the current account. This feature suggests that high technology growth corresponds to net capital outflow, because of the outflow of foreign exchange reserves in attracting the inflow of foreign direct investment, thus providing a rationale to the `allocation puzzle' in cross-economy comparisons. The model also generates positive co-movement between foreign exchange reserves and foreign debt, thus relating to the puzzle of why economies borrow and save simultaneously.
In Chapter 2, joint work with Sakai Ando, we study whether FDI firms hire more employees than domestic firms for each dollar of assets. Using the Orbis database and its ownership structure information, we show that, in most economies, domestic firms tend to hire more employees per asset than FDI firms. The result remains robust across individual industries in the case study of the United Kingdom. The analysis shows that an ownership change itself (from domestic to foreign or vice versa) does not have an immediate impact on the employment per asset. This result suggests that different patterns of job creation seem to come from technological differences rather than from different ownership structures.
In Chapter 3, I investigate how the devaluation of domestic currency imposes a contractionary effect on small open economies who have a significant amount of debt denominated in foreign currencies. Economists and policymakers express concern about the "Original Sin" situation in which most of the economies in the world cannot use their domestic currencies to borrow abroad. A devaluation will increase the foreign currency-denominated debt measured in the domestic currency, which will lead to contractions in the domestic economy. However, previous literature on currency denomination and exchange rate policy predicted limited or no contractionary effect of devaluation. In this paper, I present a new model to capture this contractionary devaluation effect with non-financial firms having foreign currency-denominated liabilities and domestic currency-denominated assets. When firms borrow from abroad and keep part of the asset in domestic cash or cash equivalents, the contractionary devaluation effect is exacerbated. The model can be used to discuss the performance of the economy in interest under exchange rate shocks and interest rate shocks. Future directions for empirically assessing the model and current literature are suggested. This assessment will thus provide policy guidance for economies with different levels of debt, especially foreign currency-denominated debt.
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主權基金之研究─兼論台灣是否需成立主權基金 / A study on sovereign wealth funds:Whether Taiwan needs to establish a SWF沈鈴華 Unknown Date (has links)
天然資源價格高漲,及全球貿易失衡,造成新興國家累積大量美元資產,資本市場自由化、投資商品多元化,促使主權基金備受矚目。擁有高額外匯存底的台灣,是否需成立主權基金,成為國內學者專家關注議題。贊成者認為可以降低持有外匯存底機會成本,增加財政收入;扶植國內產業、提升國際競爭力,反對者認為主權基金並非穩賺不賠;容易特權干預、政商勾結,不符合企業報酬最大化原則。各種研究報告顯示主權基金有可能變成金融巨獸,但是,歷經金融海嘯的洗禮,面對投資績效與保護主義雙重壓力,會不會逐漸萎縮泡沫化,值得進一步觀察與研究。
本篇論文希望透過有關文獻的整理與回顧,對主權基金相關概念做一彙整與分析,歸納主要主權基金之經驗,包括政治環境、資產規模與追求目標等共同屬性,與台灣財政、經濟現況做相關性研究,佐以其他國家成立主權基金與否原因之比較結果,傾向現階段台灣以尚不需成立主權基金為宜。
關鍵詞:主權基金、外匯存底 / The prices of natural resources have increased, while global trade has became unbanced; as a result, the developing countries have accumulated lots of reserves assets, which are invested in diversified financial products. The above situation has caused Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) to attract a lot of attention. This study investigates whether Taiwan, should establish its own Sovereign Wealth Fund. Supporters of the SWF believe that it will reduce the opportunity costs of holding foreign exchange reserves while increasing revenues, supporting domestic industries, and enhancing international competitiveness. In contrast, opponents of the SWF argue that it is too risky, easy prey to government and business collusion as well as corruption. Various studies indicate that SWFs may become financial giants, but after the latest financial crisis, investment performance is limited by conservative hedging. The new development of SWFs are worthy of further observations and research.
This paper aims to review the literature on SWFs. It goes through the world’s major SWFs, asset scales and objectives. The study concludes that due to Taiwan’s specific financial and economic status, it is not appropriate for Taiwan to set up a Sovereign Wealth Fund at this moment.
Key words:Sovereign Wealth Funds、foreign exchange reserves
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Does a correlation exist between the foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate? : An empirical study of ChinaFANG, Yu, LU, Lili January 2011 (has links)
The main purpose of this study is to investigate relationship between foreign exchange reserves and RMB exchange rate. In order to obtain a precise result, foreign trade situation and GDP are also considered. The monthly data is collected over period 1994 to 2011, and processed through ADF test, Johansen test, and Granger causality test. Final results indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship existing between foreign exchange reserves and RMB exchange rate. Moreover, any changes of foreign exchange reserves would lead to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate but not vice versa. At last, the dummy variables are added into regression model to test influence from the reform of RMB exchange rate regime. Results suggest that regime reform not only increase flexibility of RMB exchange rate, but also slow down the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves.
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The Triangular Strategy of China`s Sovereign Wealth FundsChua, Yee-hong 30 August 2010 (has links)
In 2007, Chinese Government has established the first sovereign wealth fund in formal and funded with $2,000 billion dollars which called as China Investment Corporation(CIC).It is purposed to settle the bad debts of State-owned Bank and process the restrcuting of financial management system. At the same time, CIC invest overseas investment actively. The Chinese Government treats the sovereign wealth funds as a vehicle, positively to establish the strategic reserve system for energy and raw materials. Except to hedge the volatility of international market price,in the other hand, to optimize the Chinese industrial structures to be more efficiency. But, in beginning stage of China's sovereign wealth funds, they faced the problems with other state-owned enterprises in overseas investments.It happens the group-overlapping effect and huge losses when deals with multinational enterprises,and it caused the dosmestic critisms .
However, China's sovereign wealth fund set up by the time is not long, mostly of the chinese scholars have proposed a strategy as ¡§Fund Exchange for Technology¡¨ .It is through the usages of China's foreign investment to acquire the resources and technology. On the national development strategic, the China's sovereign wealth funds which controlled by the Chinese Central Financial leading group, are responsible to execute the national missions.In addition to the country's political security,economic security,it also to ensure the food security,energy security,water resources, and other important resources. Clearly, political motivations and core technology is the Chinese Government's core interests, which is China's national security and sustainable development. This article is researching into the core interests for the Triangular Strategy of China`s Sovereign Wealth Funds.
In the raising of the "Strong Power" of China , national security issues are priority to be settled .Acquisition for the "Power Composition" ,which included the key technolgy and resources , and Chinese government is facing the main challenges.Would the China's sovereign wealth fund still keep investing although it occurred huge losses in overseas energy procurement,acquisition of dosmestic and abroad enterprises, financial assets, investment activities of configuration? Comparatively, would the CIC continuing to expand and investing with "trianglular strategy" to achieve the core interests.In general, keep the subsequent to focus on the economical discourse power and the core technology.
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A Study of China's Financial Security-The Sino-U.S. Conflict on Currency Exchange RateLin, Chih-Tsung 31 July 2011 (has links)
The RMB exchange rate started to be a widely international issue discussed with Sino-U.S. relations of Economic since 2002.The main Objective of this study is finding the causes of undervaluing and pressures of facing. However, China¡¦s Financial Security is closely related to the process participating in the international system of finance, so this article is concentrated in the scope of correlate research of RMB exchange rate, and analyzed to find what pressures China facing and what policies China choosing. The causes which nominal exchange rate was biased against the real exchange rate are discriminated between labor factor and interest factor, with observing the change of balance of payment and foreign exchange reserves, so the foreign market unequilibrium can be explained further by analyzing the flow and capital. Finally, the strategic consider of U.S. is also the one of factors that influences RMB exchange rate despite of the economic risks in China. perspectives of international politics in Pressuring RMB exchange rate or opening markets are considered on the coordination of interest groups¡Bcongress and government of United States.
The conclusion revealed the main reason that China is now facing major secure threats, there are looseness in capital controls, and rigidity in foreign exchange regimes. This threats result in failing to diversify its investment risk of foreign exchange and causing its monetary policy much pressure. The other hand, The purposes of putting pressure on RMB exchange rate by U.S. reflected that they not only transferred the responsibility of unemployment and deficit but also showed the need of domestic politics and the consideration of international politics, so the strength of pressure was not the same in the time series. Therefore, the study argues that the dispute of Sino-U.S. exchange rate was not only the outcome of interaction between two countries¡¦ trade but also this regime of China and purpose of U.S. should be discussed and observed continually.
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Souvislosti platební bilance a měnového kurzu (analýza a komparace vybraných ekonomik) / Relations between balance of payments and exchange rate (analysis and comparison of selected countries)Toperczerová, Michaela January 2011 (has links)
This master thesis examines mutual relations between components of the balance of payments and the foreign exchange rate. The first part briefly describes the structure of the balance of payments and the theory of the foreign exchange rate as a macro-economical variable, which can be seen in many different systems. The next part brings the characteristics of historic and recent economic conditions and challenges of four selected countries: Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC). In the empirical part, relations between components of the balance of payments and the development of the exchange rate are analyzed by methods of the linear regression. The time-series consisted of annual data for a period of fifteen to seventeen years.
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Why China Should Invest Its Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Major US BanksChen, Qianbing 01 July 2009 (has links)
The subprime mortgage crisis and the resultant inflationary monetary policy in the USA have left the Chinese economy subject to four risks in particular. First, China's exports to the USA might continue to decline. Second, in the medium term, the higher US inflation rate will lead to a weak dollar, which will negatively affect China's exports. Third, in the long term, when the US Federal Reserve decreases money supply to control inflation, the US economy might enter another recession, hurting China's exports further. Fourth, China's foreign exchange reserve assets might suffer heavy losses when the US inflation rate rises. Conventional foreign exchange investment strategies are insufficient for dealing with these four risks. Investment by China in the major US banks is suggested in the present paper. This strategy would mitigate if not eliminate all four risks. China could gain considerable financial returns on investments with only moderate risk.
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Devizové rezervy v tranzitivních ekonomikách / Foreign exchange reserves in developing coutriesParmová, Jana January 2011 (has links)
The thesis deals with a role of foreign exchange reserves in developing countries. Main attention is devoted to the trends in development in foreign exchange reserves in recent years. The individual questions are analyzed in the context of accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. There are described connections between exchange reserves and individual periods of economic emergence in the developing countries. The thesis presents the meaning of exchange reserves in different types of foreign exchange regimes. There is described influence of exchange reserves on implementation of monetary policy. Foreign exchange reserves are divided in dependence on their origin. There is defined the relationship between accumulation of exchange reserves and net international investment position. The thesis deals with the role of foreign exchange reserves in global imbalances too. In the empirical part there are analyzed some questions described in theoretical part, using the cases of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary.
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Global financial crisis and monetary policies of central banks (examples of chosen countries) / Globální finanční krize a měnová politika centrálních bank (příklad vybraných zemí)Fajnor, Tomáš January 2010 (has links)
The purpose of this Master's thesis is divided into two steps. The first step sums up all the relevant theory about financial crises and monetary policies. The second step analyzes not only the past but focuses mainly on the global financial crisis which started in 2007. The cornerstones of this analytical bloc are monetary policies of central banks in China, Venezuela, Denmark and the Czech Republic. Two hypotheses are stated in the beginning of this Master's thesis. These focus on fixed exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange reserves. The analytical part of Master's thesis tries to prove whether these hypotheses can be marked as valid or invalid.
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