Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a way to provide the needed capital inflow to stimulate growth in a domestic economy. FDI can also result in increased employment levels, managerial skills and increase in technology. In efforts to attract FDI, host countries have undertaken various policy incentives to attract foreign investors. This study analyses the trends and determinants of inward FDI to South Africa for the period 1975-2005. The study starts by reviewing FDI literature on its determinants and provides the macroeconomic background and FDI related policies undertaken in South Africa. The trend and sectoral analysis provides the actual nature of FDI flows to South Africa. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical determinants of FDI is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. The study also augments the cointegration framework with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to complement the long and short run determinants of FDI. Dummy variables are used in each of the estimated FDI models to take into account the possibility of structural breaks. Results show that relative to the size of the economy and to other developing countries, South Africa still receives low levels of inward FDI. Only are few years are exceptional i.e. 1997, 2001 and 2005. From the sectoral distribution, the financial sector is now the major recipient of FDI followed by the mining and manufacturing sectors. The emergence of the financial sector could suggest that FDI motives could have shifted from the natural resource seeking and market seeking to efficiency seeking FDI. The United Kingdom emerges as the major source of FDI to South Africa followed by United States of America and Germany. Empirical analysis indicated that openness, exchange rate and financial development are important long run determinants of FDI. Increased openness and financial development attract FDI while an increase (depreciation) in the exchange rate deters FDI to South Africa. Market size emerges as a short run determinant of FDI although it is declining in importance. Most of the impulse response analysis confirmed the VECM findings. Variance decomposition analysis showed that FDI itself, imports and exchange rate explain a significant amount of the forecast error variance. The influence of market size variable is small and declining over time.

This study analyses and investigates the impact of crude oil price vitality on unemployment in South Africa. This is done by firstly surveying theoretical and empirical literature on the crude oil price-unemployment relationship before relating it to South Africa. Secondly, crude oil and unemployment trends with their causes are overviewed. The study employs a Johansen co-integration technique based on VAR to model unemployment against crude oil prices, real effective exchange rate, real interest rates and real gross domestic product. Using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010, econometric results show that crude oil prices are positively related to unemployment in the long run while the opposite is true in the short run. Parameter estimates and variables are statistically significant; hence there are also policy recommendations which are related to both empirical and theoretical literature. Lastly, impulse response functions show that unemployment returns to equilibrium in the long run when crude oil price changes whereas real interest rates followed by crude oil prices explain most of unemployment changes compared to other variables in the long run.

This study exammes the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa using monthly data for the period January 1996 to June 2008. Orthogonalised and non-orthogonalised house price returns and real estate returns are utilised as proxies for the housing property market in separate models. Three main issues were empirically analysed in relation to the linkage between selected variables and the housing property market. The first aspect examined the relationship between selected macroeconomic and financial factors and property returns. Secondly, the study examined the influence that a unit shock to each variable has on property returns over a period of time. The third aspect focused on determining the proportion of property returns variation that results from changes in the macroeconomic and financial variables. VAR modelling was thus adopted to empirically analyse these three aspects. The results reveal that house price returns are influenced by most of the macroeconomic and financial variables used in this study. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate, interest rate spread and manufacturing production positively impact on house price returns while the domestic interest rate, the dividend yield and expected inflation have a negative effect. Furthermore, manufacturing production has a lagged effect on house price returns while the real effective exchange rate and domestic interest rate have a contemporaneous effect. Real estate returns are not influenced by most of the variables except for the domestic interest rate and dividend yield which have a negative effect.

The fact that South Africa has a floating exchange rate policy as well as an open trade policy leaves the country’s import, producer and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Given the central role that inflation targeting occupies in South Africa’s monetary policy, it becomes necessary to determine the nature of influence of exchange rate changes on domestic prices. To this end, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import, producer and consumer prices in South Africa. Furthermore, it explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass-through effects on import prices, that is, whether the exchange rate pass-through is symmetric or asymmetric. The paper uses monthly data covering the period January 1980 to December 2005. In investigating ERPT, two main stages are identified. The initial stage is the transmission of fluctuations in the exchange rate to import prices, while the second-stage entails the pass-through of changes in import prices to producer and consumer prices. The first stage is estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) cointegration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage pass-through is determined by estimating impulse response and variance decomposition functions, as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. The study follows Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle’s (2004) approach in estimating pass-through asymmetry with respect to appreciations and depreciations. In addition, the thesis adapts the analytical framework of Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle (2004) to investigate the pass-through of large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also some evidence that pass-through is higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate, which supports the menu cost theory when invoices are denominated in the exporters’ currency.

This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.

This study analyses whether the advent of strike action has an effect on the value and volatility of the South African Rand compared with the US Dollar. The literature suggests that strike action can have a significant effect on the exchange rate in terms of either value or volatility, and consequences can result that cause inefficiencies in the economy; inhibiting employment and economic growth. Strike action has become common place in South Africa, with 2012 alone recording 99 strikes, 45 of which were “wildcat” or unprotected strikes. This study uses GARCH and Intervention Analyses to determine what the resulting effects of the strikes might be on the exchange rate. The analysis used ZAR/USD exchange rate data for the period January 2000 to October 2013, and covered 72 of the most significant strikes in terms of lost man-days. The results are mixed, suggesting that the effects of strikes do not always conform to expectations (increased volatility and a depreciation in the Rand), and that outside factors affecting the global economy may have a more significant effect on the exchange rate than strikes on their own.

The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.

This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility and misalignment on economic growth in South Africa. It applies the Johansen co integration test and the vector error correction model on quarterly data for the period 1990:01-2010:04. Exchange rate volatility is measured as the standard deviation of both the nominal and nominal effective exchange rate. The study constructs three measures of exchange rate misalignment, with two of the measures constructed using the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price index based Purchasing Power Parity. The third measure was based on the difference between the nominal and effective exchange rate. Contrary to pre-dominant findings in the exchange rate literature, the study finds a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth and attributes it to composition of the country’s exports that are largely made up of commodities that act as essential inputs in many production processes. As a result, the variability of prices caused by exchange rate volatility is not expected to deter demand for these commodities. A negative and significant relationship between exchange rate misalignment and economic growth was found. The findings of the study show that it is important for monetary authorities to ensure that the exchange rate is always at an appropriate level in order to avoid the negative implications of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth.

M.Com. (Financial Economics) / The main objective of this mini dissertation is to examine the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade. The finding of this mini dissertation is however that the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade could be either positive or negative depending on various reasons that will be discussed when the arguments of the theorists that have either found a positive, negative and sometimes indeterminate effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade are discussed. The focus of this mini dissertation will be on the manufacturing trade between the Republic of South Africa with the United States and China. The need for an analysis of exchange rate volatility on international trade arises from the fact that firstly no consensus has been reached on the true effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade and secondly knowledge of what the true effect of exchange rate volatility is on international trade could assist in drafting the appropriate policies at government level. The finding of this mini dissertation represents a challenge for policy recommendations as it reflects the fact that various industries, sectors and subsectors of the economy of the Republic of South Africa are impacted differently by the volatility of the Rand/Yuan and Rand/Dollar exchange rates, respectively, therefore any policy that is drawn up to improve international trade needs to be done on an individual basis for each industry, sector and subsector respectively taking into account the various dynamics and characteristics of each. Firstly in the literature review a detailed discussion of both sides of the exchange rate volatility debate will be outlined. It would be shown why there is a lack of consensus when it comes to the issue of what effect exchange rate volatility has on international trade. On the one hand the argument of those suggest that exchange rate volatility hampers international trade or has a negative effect on international trade, such as Sekantsi, (2008); Onafowora and Owoye, (2008); Chit, (2010); Vergil, (2008); Arize et al, (2000); Arize and Malindretos, (2002); Klaasen, (2004) and Doganlar, (2002), will be reviewed. The argument of those that say that in fact exchange rate volatility has no impact on international trade, such as Raddatz, (2008); Frankel, (2007); Arize and Malindretos, (2002); Arize et al, (2000); Klaasen, (2004); Chowdhury, (1993) and Hassan and Sukar, (1999), will also be reviewed. This discussion and the results that arise from exploring this debate have very important implications on the recommendations that are passed on to government to be considered when drafting policies, such as the New Growth Path (NGP). Secondly when the background of the manufacturing industry in South Africa is discussed, all the initiatives and policies such as the NGP that government has planned and put in place in order to rejuvenate the manufacturing industry will be outlined. The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade has a direct impact on these policies. Recommendations regarding how best enhance the policies to rejuvenate the manufacturing industry cannot be possibly made when consensus about the impact of exchange rate volatility has not be reached. For this reason it was it imperative that the true impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade be made clear.

Thesis (M.A. Commerce (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2019 / South Africa had targeted the oil and gas sector for investment through the industrial action plan as a special economic zone. However, certain economic fundamentals might negate the anticipated sector financial development. This study investigate how economic risk exposure influence oil & gas sector stock market returns from 2007 to 2015 on a monthly basis. The four macroeconomic variables used to measure economic risk exposure are Brent crude oil prices, the USD/ZAR exchange rate, broad money supply and gold prices. The adopted techniques include the GARCH model to incorporate volatility, the Johansen cointegration and Granger causality techniques. The results of the study found that change in Brent crude oil prices and broad money supply had a positive and significant impact on changes in oil & gas sector stock returns. Changes in exchange rate and gold prices had a negative and significant impact on the sector returns. The long-run relationship established one cointegrating equation in the series. Only Brent crude oil prices indicated a bi-directional Granger causality on the sector returns. Based on the findings, it is recommended that government may use exchange rate as a policy tool to attract interest in the sector. Regarding money supply, the reserve bank should further preserve its effective regulatory infrastructure including the laws, regulations and standards towards the achievement and maintenance of a stable financial system. Portfolio managers, risk managers and investors should monitor the gold price to mitigate losses due to its strength as a safe haven asset.