Empirical forest transition (shift from deforestation to reforestation) literature has historically struggled to establish a single universally-accepted forest transition “theory” due to various knowledge gaps hindering any efforts to do so. One such gap is the fact that very few studies have focused on how and why smallholder farmers respond to commonly accepted forest transition drivers, as well as how these responses impact forest cover and agricultural trends. Also, there remain many parts of the world where forest cover evolution has been insufficiently researched, as is the case of Mae Chaem district (Chiang Mai province, Thailand). Even though there are studies which claim forest loss occurred in the district between the 1990s and mid-2000s, there are few available records of forest cover evolution since then. To address these research needs, this thesis used secondary literature and spatial data, as well as semi-structured interviews and personal observations gathered during fieldwork in Mae Chaem district. It was first determined that forest cover in the district decreased between the 1990s and mid-2010s due to agricultural expansion. However, it appears that forest cover is expected to increase from 2016 to 2021 due to more strictly-enforced conservation measures set in motion by the Mae Chaem Model (a state-sponsored sustainable development model). These findings first suggest that the district might be currently in the early stages of a forest transition, its drivers being shifting forest policies and economic factors. Second, interviewed farmers resisted forest policies to optimize their crop productions before 2016, before beginning to develop more acceptant responses in early 2016 due to pressure from pro-conservation discourses and cognitive shifts regarding the value of protecting forest at the expense of agriculture. Also, farmers adopted ambiguous responses (motivated by their economic rationality) to pressure stemming from various economic factors, both prior and since 2016. With both environmental and socioeconomic issues deriving from these responses, the outputs from this study will hopefully help supplement existing forest transition studies on local populations responses to drivers of forest change. It is also expected to provide up-to-date information on existing and anticipated impacts of recent state development efforts, such as those deriving from the establishment of the Mae Chaem Model.

Este artículo explica la forma como las estrategias productivas familiares de los colonos agricultores y las percepciones que los agricultores tienen sobre el bosque influyen en el ritmo de deforestación. Este tipo de enfoque, basado en el análisis de procesos endógenos, procura contextualizar y entender cómo los agricultores funcionan dentro de un contexto de «transición forestal», resultado de significativos cambios económicos, expansión del mercado y desarrollo de la infraestructura vial. Nuestro argumento central es que las indicadas estrategias de los agricultores en el cantón de Tena, en relación con el ritmo de deforestación en sus fincas, se construyen como resultado de la combinación de un conjunto de procesos económicos de sobrevivencia a corto y mediano plazo y desde los cuales se elaboran percepciones mentales o culturales sobre el bosque. Tales procesos endógenos no son únicamente respuestas a contextos externos sino que también se derivan de ciclos demográficos y dinámicas de acumulación que ocurren dentro de las familias de los productores. / This article explains how the family productive strategies of farmer settlers and their perceptions of the forest influence the rate of deforestation. This particular approach, based on the analysis of endogenous processes, seeks to contextualize and understand how farmers operate within a context of «forest transition», as a result of significant economic changes, market expansion and road infrastructuredevelopment. Our central argument is that the farmers’ strategies in Tena, in relation to the rate of deforestation on their farms, are a result of the combination of a set of economic processes of survival in the short and medium term and of their mental or cultural perceptions of the forest. Such endogenous processes arenot only responses to external contexts but are also derived from demographic cycles and accumulation dynamics that occur within the families of producers.

This dissertation employed a random forest algorithm for Land Use Land Cover (LULC) classification and proposed and tested a modified forest transition framework in the Greater Shawnee National Forest (GSNF), Illinois. Subsequently, a machine learning-based multilayer artificial neural network was used to assess the LULC of the GSNF between 2019 and 2050 utilizing IPCC-based projected climate data. The accuracy of LULC classification was evaluated using Kappa statistics and Producer and User accuracies. The Stepwise Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) models were compared to quantify terrestrial carbon stock. Similarly, InVEST, FRAGSTAT, and Maxent models were used for habitat quality analysis and to estimate the probability of bobcat distribution. The terrestrial carbon stock, habitat quality, and bobcat distribution were quantified across three spatial resolutions, 30, 60, and 90 meters, to assess if there were substantial differences in the represented trends of these measures of Ecosystem Services (ES). The LULC analysis showed varying levels of temporal and spatial variabilities with increased deciduous forest (1.35%), mixed forest (26.40%), agricultural land (2.15%), and urbanized areas (6.70%) between 1990 and 2019. Notably, the LULC intensity analysis exhibited stability from 2001 to 2019, consistent with the forest transition framework proposed in the study. However, when integrating temperature and precipitation projections derived from the IPCC, notable changes in forest cover were observed from the western to eastern sectors within the central region of the GSNF. In all IPCC based scenarios, overall forest cover (deciduous, evergreen, and mixed) declined. The classification accuracy of the LULC assessment ranged from 92.9% to 95.9%, accompanied by kappa statistics ranging from 0.89 to 0.94. The prediction accuracy of LULC change was validated for the year 2019, ranging from 77.99% to 84.67%, with kappa statistics between 0.79 and 0.81, depending on the scenario, and predictions were extended to the year 2050. The terrestrial carbon stock in GSNF varied from 15 to 212 MgC per hectare across different models. The RF model performed best at 90 meters resolution with FIA-based data, with RMSE values of 17.45, 18.73, and 20.05, and R-squared values of 0.53, 0.48, and 0.43 for 2001, 2010, and 2019, respectively. The findings indicated that while the InVEST model provides a broad and generalized approach to quantifying carbon storage, the random forest (RF) model is essential for obtaining more accurate and precise estimations. LULC has gradually become more fragmented over time, leading to a decline in average habitat quality from 1990 (0.724±0.215) to 2019 (0.689±0.192). Regardless of increased forest density, the proportion of high-quality habitats (habitat quality score above 0.83) decreased by 5% during the study period. Interestingly, there was a notable increase in the probability score of bobcat distribution from 1990 (0.327±0.123) to 2019 (0.347±0.084). The study revealed a strong correlation between habitat quality and the probability of bobcat distributions, indicating a mutual influence between the two factors. This dissertation suggests that the LULC change of the GSNF follows the forest transition framework and has a significant implication on ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and habitat quality. These results are instrumental for sustainable land management to optimize terrestrial carbon stock and habitat quality, thereby mitigating the impacts of climate change.

Studies from the Forestry Institute of São Paulo State have shown that in the end of the 20th century, the native forest cover of the state of SP reached the maximum level of forest loss. From that point on, a period of forest increase and expansion started. Industrialization, law enforcement, economic benefits, and social pressure experienced in recent years are believed to be contributing to the preservation and regrowth of the native vegetation cover in certain locations. This study proposed to model the dynamics of native vegetation cover in the Piracicaba River basin (12,500 km²) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, to evaluate possible effects of these changes in ecosystem services related to river flow & regulation and landscape structure, linking to biodiversity & habitat supported by forest patches. To achieve the proposal set out in this research, dynamic models of native vegetation were established. Thematic land cover maps of the years 1990, 2000 and 2010, originated from Landsat 5 TM images, formed the spatiotemporal basis of this study. With the aid of Dinamica EGO (a dynamic modeling software), three future scenarios were created, called status quo (SQ), no deforestation (ND) and riparian restoration enforcement (RRE). An analysis using weights of evidence was done to identify forest transition drivers. The drivers are divided into two groups, (1) environmental & physical, consisting of soil types, hydrographic network, rainfall and presence of native forest fragments and (2) anthropic, consisting of population density, gross national product, road network, urban patches and predominant rural activities. Resulting scenarios were analyzed by means of landscape metrics to compare and qualify vegetation patches in relation to structure as proxy for supporting ecosystem services. Finally, Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a hydrological model, was used to determine the influence of different forest scenarios in mean annual water yield and regulation processes throughout the basin, and, therefore, compare scenarios as to effects on regulating ecosystem services. Results show that forest transition is indeed occurring, with native vegetation cover parting from 24.4% in 1990, to 20.1% in 2000 and 21.8% in 2010. Scenario results were of 22.4% (SQ), 43.2% (ND) and 28.4% (RRE) for 2050. Forest loss was identified as a product of anthropogenic drivers while regrowth was of physical & environmental drivers. When the area was segmented, regions with greater environmental condition resulted in improved values of landscape structure. SQ scenario was the most affected, losing small patches of forest that could function as structural connectors, and therefore potentially affect biodiversity and habitat. Mean annual water yield was reduced with forest regrowth by as much as 10.3% in ND. We concluded that the dynamics occurring in the landscape and the proposed scenarios affect mean annual water yield, regulation and landscape structure, allowing us to discuss differences between the scenarios and the relation between forest dynamics, landscape structure, hydrology and overtime potential effects over regulating and supporting ecosystem services. / Levantamentos do Instituto Florestal de São Paulo têm mostrado que no final do século XX a cobertura florestal nativa total do estado atingiu um patamar de perda e que se iniciou então um período de expansão. Rigidez de leis, fiscalização, benefícios econômicos, além de pressão social demonstrados nos últimos anos têm contribuído para essa expansão da vegetação nativa em certos locais. Este estudo propôs modelar a dinâmica da cobertura florestal nativa na bacia do Rio Piracicaba (12.500 km2), localizada no Estado de São Paulo, para averiguar os possíveis efeitos dessas mudanças nos serviços ecossistêmicos ligados à vazão e regulação de rios, além da própria estrutura da paisagem simulada, interligando-se com biodiversidade e habitat, promovidos pelos remanescentes florestais. Para atingir a proposta estabelecida nesta pesquisa, modelos de dinâmica da vegetação nativa foram desenvolvidos. Foram utilizados mapas temáticos de cobertura e uso do solo dos anos 1990, 2000 e 2010 originados a partir de imagens Landsat 5 TM. Com auxílio do software Dinamica EGO, especializado em modelagem da paisagem, criaram-se três modelos espaciais e temporais da dinâmica florestal, levando em consideração os cenários status quo (SQ), no deforestation (ND) e riparian restoration enforcement (RRE). Uma análise usando pesos de evidência foi utilizada para identificar as variáveis de transição florestal. As variáveis foram divididas em dois grupos, (1) físicas e ambientais, consistindo de tipos de solo, rede de drenagem, pluviosidade e presença de fragmentos florestais e (2) antrópicos, consistindo de densidade populacional, produto interno bruto, rede viária, zonas urbanas e predominância de atividade rural. Os cenários resultantes foram analisados por métricas de paisagem para fim de comparação e qualificação dos fragmentos em relação a sua estrutura, interligando-se aos serviços ecossistêmicos de suporte. Por último, foi realizada uma modelagem hidrológica usando o modelo Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) para averiguar a influência da mudança florestal na regulação de vazão de rios e portanto comparar os cenários em relação aos seus efeitos sobre serviços ecossistêmicos de regulação interligados à água. Resultados mostraram que transição florestal ocorreu, passando a cobertura florestal de 24,4% em 1990 para 20,1% em 2000 e então 21,8% em 2010. Cenários resultaram em uma cobertura florestal de 22,4% (SQ), 43,2% (LE) e 28,4% (RRE) para o ano de 2050. A perda de floresta foi identificada como produto de variáveis de natureza antrópica enquanto o ganho florestal foi de variáveis físicas e ambientais. Regiões com melhores condições ambientais resultaram em melhores valores de estrutura da paisagem. SQ foi afetado principalmente pela perda de pequenos fragmentos florestais que funcionam como conectores estruturais da paisagem, potencialmente afetando a biodiversidade e habitat. O deflúvio médio anual foi reduzido em até 10,3% com o incremento florestal observado em ND. Conclui-se que a cobertura florestal na paisagem e os cenários propostos afetam o deflúvio, regulação e a estrutura da paisagem, nos permitindo discutir nas diferenças entre cada cenário e a relação entre dinâmica florestal, estrutura da paisagem, hidrologia e potenciais efeitos nos serviços ecossistêmicos de suporte e regulação.

Studies from the Forestry Institute of São Paulo State have shown that in the end of the 20th century, the native forest cover of the state of SP reached the maximum level of forest loss. From that point on, a period of forest increase and expansion started. Industrialization, law enforcement, economic benefits, and social pressure experienced in recent years are believed to be contributing to the preservation and regrowth of the native vegetation cover in certain locations. This study proposed to model the dynamics of native vegetation cover in the Piracicaba River basin (12,500 km²) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, to evaluate possible effects of these changes in ecosystem services related to river flow & regulation and landscape structure, linking to biodiversity & habitat supported by forest patches. To achieve the proposal set out in this research, dynamic models of native vegetation were established. Thematic land cover maps of the years 1990, 2000 and 2010, originated from Landsat 5 TM images, formed the spatiotemporal basis of this study. With the aid of Dinamica EGO (a dynamic modeling software), three future scenarios were created, called status quo (SQ), no deforestation (ND) and riparian restoration enforcement (RRE). An analysis using weights of evidence was done to identify forest transition drivers. The drivers are divided into two groups, (1) environmental & physical, consisting of soil types, hydrographic network, rainfall and presence of native forest fragments and (2) anthropic, consisting of population density, gross national product, road network, urban patches and predominant rural activities. Resulting scenarios were analyzed by means of landscape metrics to compare and qualify vegetation patches in relation to structure as proxy for supporting ecosystem services. Finally, Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a hydrological model, was used to determine the influence of different forest scenarios in mean annual water yield and regulation processes throughout the basin, and, therefore, compare scenarios as to effects on regulating ecosystem services. Results show that forest transition is indeed occurring, with native vegetation cover parting from 24.4% in 1990, to 20.1% in 2000 and 21.8% in 2010. Scenario results were of 22.4% (SQ), 43.2% (ND) and 28.4% (RRE) for 2050. Forest loss was identified as a product of anthropogenic drivers while regrowth was of physical & environmental drivers. When the area was segmented, regions with greater environmental condition resulted in improved values of landscape structure. SQ scenario was the most affected, losing small patches of forest that could function as structural connectors, and therefore potentially affect biodiversity and habitat. Mean annual water yield was reduced with forest regrowth by as much as 10.3% in ND. We concluded that the dynamics occurring in the landscape and the proposed scenarios affect mean annual water yield, regulation and landscape structure, allowing us to discuss differences between the scenarios and the relation between forest dynamics, landscape structure, hydrology and overtime potential effects over regulating and supporting ecosystem services. / Levantamentos do Instituto Florestal de São Paulo têm mostrado que no final do século XX a cobertura florestal nativa total do estado atingiu um patamar de perda e que se iniciou então um período de expansão. Rigidez de leis, fiscalização, benefícios econômicos, além de pressão social demonstrados nos últimos anos têm contribuído para essa expansão da vegetação nativa em certos locais. Este estudo propôs modelar a dinâmica da cobertura florestal nativa na bacia do Rio Piracicaba (12.500 km2), localizada no Estado de São Paulo, para averiguar os possíveis efeitos dessas mudanças nos serviços ecossistêmicos ligados à vazão e regulação de rios, além da própria estrutura da paisagem simulada, interligando-se com biodiversidade e habitat, promovidos pelos remanescentes florestais. Para atingir a proposta estabelecida nesta pesquisa, modelos de dinâmica da vegetação nativa foram desenvolvidos. Foram utilizados mapas temáticos de cobertura e uso do solo dos anos 1990, 2000 e 2010 originados a partir de imagens Landsat 5 TM. Com auxílio do software Dinamica EGO, especializado em modelagem da paisagem, criaram-se três modelos espaciais e temporais da dinâmica florestal, levando em consideração os cenários status quo (SQ), no deforestation (ND) e riparian restoration enforcement (RRE). Uma análise usando pesos de evidência foi utilizada para identificar as variáveis de transição florestal. As variáveis foram divididas em dois grupos, (1) físicas e ambientais, consistindo de tipos de solo, rede de drenagem, pluviosidade e presença de fragmentos florestais e (2) antrópicos, consistindo de densidade populacional, produto interno bruto, rede viária, zonas urbanas e predominância de atividade rural. Os cenários resultantes foram analisados por métricas de paisagem para fim de comparação e qualificação dos fragmentos em relação a sua estrutura, interligando-se aos serviços ecossistêmicos de suporte. Por último, foi realizada uma modelagem hidrológica usando o modelo Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) para averiguar a influência da mudança florestal na regulação de vazão de rios e portanto comparar os cenários em relação aos seus efeitos sobre serviços ecossistêmicos de regulação interligados à água. Resultados mostraram que transição florestal ocorreu, passando a cobertura florestal de 24,4% em 1990 para 20,1% em 2000 e então 21,8% em 2010. Cenários resultaram em uma cobertura florestal de 22,4% (SQ), 43,2% (LE) e 28,4% (RRE) para o ano de 2050. A perda de floresta foi identificada como produto de variáveis de natureza antrópica enquanto o ganho florestal foi de variáveis físicas e ambientais. Regiões com melhores condições ambientais resultaram em melhores valores de estrutura da paisagem. SQ foi afetado principalmente pela perda de pequenos fragmentos florestais que funcionam como conectores estruturais da paisagem, potencialmente afetando a biodiversidade e habitat. O deflúvio médio anual foi reduzido em até 10,3% com o incremento florestal observado em ND. Conclui-se que a cobertura florestal na paisagem e os cenários propostos afetam o deflúvio, regulação e a estrutura da paisagem, nos permitindo discutir nas diferenças entre cada cenário e a relação entre dinâmica florestal, estrutura da paisagem, hidrologia e potenciais efeitos nos serviços ecossistêmicos de suporte e regulação.

Segundo a Teoria da Transição Florestal, países menos desenvolvidos teriam altas taxas de desmatamento, pois a economia destes países é baseada no desenvolvimento e expansão agrícola. Com o avanço do desenvolvimento econômico a industrialização, urbanização e a modernização do uso da terra levariam ao abandono de terras menos adequadas à agricultura que seriam ativamente reflorestadas ou regenerariam. Visto que São Paulo vem apresentando ganhos de cobertura florestal nativa, este estudo teve como objetivo principal identificar os fatores relacionados ao processo de transição florestal no estado de São Paulo entre 1960 e 2006. Para isso, o Capítulo 1 avaliou as discrepâncias entre três estimativas de cobertura florestal nativa disponíveis para o estado de São Paulo (censo agropecuário e dois mapeamentos com resolução de 10m e 30m), em escala municipal, e as possíveis fontes de viés associadas aos métodos de coleta. O Capítulo 2 identificou os fatores socioeconômicos e biofísicos associados ao desmatamento e à recuperação das florestas nativas nos municípios do estado de São Paulo em quatro períodos consecutivos (1960-1970, 1970-1980, 1980-1996, 1996-2006). Os resultados do Capítulo 1mostraram que o censo agropecuário subestima a cobertura florestal quando há áreas protegidas nos municípios. Mapas com resolução de 30m também subestimam a cobertura florestal nativa em relação aos mapas com 10m de resolução, visto que não detectam pequenos fragmentos. As três fontes de dados são congruentes, porém os vieses relacionados aos métodos podem refletir nos resultados. Logo, a escolha dos dados deve ser feita de acordo com os objetivos do estudo a ser desenvolvido e considerando os métodos de coleta e possíveis fontes de viés de cada conjunto de dados. O Capítulo 2 mostrou que as perdas de florestas ocorreram principalmente em municípios com solos mais úmidos e/ou naqueles em que houve expansão de cultivos. Enquanto ganhos de florestas ocorreram principalmente em municípios com maior cobertura florestal, maior declividade média, que empregaram maior número de trabalhadores permanentes e usaram mais fertilizantes. Estes resultados mostram que, entre 1960 e 2006, a expansão do uso da terra levou a perdas de florestas em áreas mais adequadas à agricultura de São Paulo. Com o tempo, porém, fatores que aumentam a produtividade ou reduzem a conversão de áreas naturais levaram ao aumento de florestas, principalmente em terras menos adequadas à agricultura. Tais fatores, no entanto, foram influenciados por políticas governamentais para modernização da agricultura e proteção dos ecossistemas naturais, e pela pressão do mercado externo por certificação ambiental. Estes resultados enfatizam a necessidade de se considerar, em conjunto, desenvolvimento da agricultura e conservação do meio ambiente para o desenvolvimento de políticas de uso da terra mais eficientes / According to Forest Transition Theory, less developed countries or regions present high rates of deforestation because their economy is based on agricultural development and agriculture expansion. As the economy develops industrialization, urbanization and agriculture modernization lead to the abandonment of lands less suitable for agriculture which are reforested or regenerate spontaneously. Since forest cover of São Paulo has increased, this study aimed to identify the socioeconomic and biophysical factors related to forest transition in the state of São Paulo between 1960 and 2006. For this purpose, Chapter 1 evaluate the discrepancies among three free datasets of São Paulo\'s forest cover (agricultural census, maps at 10m and 30m resolution), in municipality-scale, and the possible sources of bias. Chapter 2 identified the factors related to deforestation and forest gains in São Paulo\'s municipalities during four consecutive intervals (1960-1970, 1970-1980, 1980-1996, 1996-2006). Chapter 1 showed that census underestimate forest cover when legally protected areas are present, reflecting the limitation of survey methods in rural properties. Maps at 30m resolution also underestimate forest cover in comparison to maps at 10m resolution, since 30m resolution cannot detect small and narrow patches. The three datasets are congruent, but the results indicate that bias related to methods can affect analysis results. Therefore, users should choose a dataset according to aims of the study and considering the sources of bias in the data. Chapter 2 showed that forest losses were greater in municipalities with moist soils and large tracts of agricultural lands, while forest gains were higher in municipalities with high forest cover and steep slopes, and that employed a large number of permanent workers and relied on high fertilizer input. Between 1960 and 2006, land use expansion led to forest losses in more suitable areas for agriculture in São Paulo. Over time, factors that increase productivity or reduce pressure on land development led to forest gains mainly in less suitable lands. These proximate factors, however, were driven by underlying factors as governmental policies to modernize agriculture and protect natural ecosystems, and by external market demands for environmental certification. These results highlight the need to jointly consider agricultural development and environmental conservation policies for the development of effective land use policies

A preservação de remanescentes de pequenos vertebrados é um evento bastante raro porque é necessário que fatores químicos, físicos, geológicos e biológicos atuem para que frágeis ossos e dentes não sejam destruídos pela decomposição, intempéries e processos geológicos. Apesar de raros, os testemunhos deste tipo de fauna são encontrados em escavações em abrigos sob rocha do nordeste (NE) do Rio Grande do Sul (RS). Muitas espécies de micromamíferos são excelentes bioindicadores porque possuem diferentes exigências ambientais e muitas ocupam nichos bastante específicos. Os estudos destes testemunhos contribuem para o entendimento da evolução morfológica e da história biogeográfica dos grupos preservados. Noutra via, o reconhecimento de comunidades pretéritas possibilita a reunião de informações que auxiliam no entendimento da história ambiental e climática de uma região. Portanto, a disponibilidade de coleções de fósseis e semi-fósseis de comunidades de pequenos mamíferos representa uma oportunidade única para compreendermos a história do estabelecimento de atuais padrões biológicos, ecológicos, ambientais e climáticos. Com base nas amostras de comunidades pretéritas de pequenos roedores (<1Kg) do NE do RS, meus objetivos são: descrever a história holocênica do clima e paisagem que resultaram na heterogeneidade de ambientes vista hoje na região de estudo (Capítulo 1) bem como também apresentar como àquelas mudanças afetaram as comunidades de roedores ao longo dos últimos 6.200 anos (Capítulo 2); utilizar dados novos de variações ao longo do tempo de três fontes (isótopos, fauna e pólen) associando-as as hipóteses disponíveis de trabalhos em palinologia principalmente, para contar a história dos processos naturais que resultaram nas riquezas de pequenos roedores e de ambientes hoje vistas na transição leste ente Pampa e Mata Atlantica (Capítulo 3) e; investigar na morfologia de Pseudoryzomys do passado buscando encontrar sinais de adaptação frente as mudanças de ambiente e discutir se tais diferenças são suficientes para reconhecer nas populações extintas do sul uma nova espécie (Capítulo 4). Para caracterizar os hábitats atuais e pretéritos, emprego dados de literatura, amostragem em campo de dados fisionômicos e florísticos e amostras de solo (para avaliação isotópicas), para inferir que, nas terras baixas da bacia do Sinos, até 8.600 anos AP o clima devia ser ameno e relativamente úmido possibilitando um ambiente de mistura entre plantas C3 e C4; entre 8.600 e 6.900 anos AP altas temperaturas e, provavelmente intensa pluviometria levam a um rápido domínio de campos de vegetação C4; de 6.900 a 5.600 as temperaturas se tornam mais amenas e o clima se mantêm úmido fomentando os primeiros avanços de formações florestais pioneiras associadas a Mata Atlantica; após 5.600, sobretudo após 4.000 anos AP., as florestas do bioma Atlântico avançam sobre as áreas abertas e úmidas formando a paisagem em mosaico característica atual. Para descrever a diversidade pretérita, analisei 13.617 ossos (inteiros e fragmentados) de pós-crânio e 1.716 partes cranianas e dentes de pequenos roedores, cujas idades inferidas vão desde 6.200 antes do presente até o recente e identifiquei 30 táxons. Para a descrição da diversidade atual, amostrei sete sítios nos quais coletei cerca de 5 Kg pelotas de corujas (provavelmente o mesmo agente formador das amostras pretéritas), que resultaram em 1.595 fragmentos, que permitiram a identificação de 18 táxons distintos. Reunindo as amostras pretéritas e atuais, pude organizar um catálogo desta fauna, que reúne 33 táxons dentre os quais destaco cinco extintos localmente, Kunsia sp., Clyomys sp., Pseudoryzomys simplex, Necromys cf. obscurus e cf. Thalpomys e, uma totalmente extintas, Dicolpomys fossor. A fim de estabelecer cenários paleoclimáticos e descrever as alterações nestas comunidades ao longo do Holoceno (Cap. 3), eu integrei as informações sobre a diversidade de hábitats e de espécies no passado e no presente, a dados palinológicos e isotópicos, e pude estabelecer que, no geral, há razoável coerência entre os cenários de mudança paleoambientais estabelecidos em trabalhos polínicos com as interpretações que pude fazer a respeito daquelas mudanças a partir de analises de mudanças de comunidade de roedores e de oscilações isotópicas no solo. Como principal ressalva as hipóteses de mudanças Holocênicas na paisagem, argumento que toda a região de várzea entre os rios Taquari, Jacui, Caí, Sinos e Gravataí deve ter sido dominada por amplas áreas alagadas num cenário muito próximo ao Pantanal devido a presença entre os semifosseis de táxons de roedores que hoje prosperam nesse bioma e pela presença de Blastocerus dichotomus, o qual era predado por índios no RS e hoje possui uma população relictual na APA do Banhado Grande, RS. No Cap. 4 realizo uma abordagem relativamente inédita para Sigmodontinae onde verifico através de morfometria geométrica que o efeito de desgaste dentário é bastante diferente entre populações antigas e atuais de Pseudoryzomys e, associando analises morfológica lineares discuto que o conjunto de variações dever ter estreita relação com a \"tentativa\" da população a se manter ante a mudança de cenário e, consequentemente, de dieta. / Small vertebrate\'s remnants preservation is rather rare event because is needed that specific factors occur together (chemical, physical, geological and biological) to not destroy fragiles bones and teeth by decomposition, weather and geological processes. Nonetheless, the evidences of this type of fauna are quite frequently found at rock shelters excavations at Rio Grande do Sul (RS). Many micro mammals species have different environmental requirements and occupy specific niches therefore are considered excellent bioindicators. Studies of these testimonies contribute to understanding the morphological evolution and of biogeographic history of these preserved groups. In another way, knowing past communities allows gathering a lot of information that helps understanding environmental and climatic history of a place. Therefore, the availability of fossil and semifossil collections from past small mammals communities is a odd opportunity to improve the current biological understanding of ecological, environmental and climatic patterns established along of the history. This study intends to contribute knowledge about northeast RS and about your Holocene rodent fauna. Based on past samples from small rodent communities (<1kg). The objectives of this thesis are: describe the climate and landscape Holocene history which resulted in current heterogeneity of northeast of RS (Chapter 1) as well as show how climatic and environmental changes affected rodent communities over past 6,200 years (Chapter 2); Use new data of three sources variation over time (isotopes, fauna and pollen) associating mainly with available palynology studies in order to interpret the natural processes history which resulted in small rodent richness and present environments at Atlantic Forest and Pampa transitions (Chapter 3) and; investigate past Pseudoryzomys morphology in order to find adaptation signs in face of environment changes and discuss whether these differences are enough to distinguish a new species in the South´s extinct populations (Chapter 4). To characterize current and past habitats (Chapter 1) literature, fisionomic and floristic field sampling and soil samples (for isotopic evaluation) data are used to infer that in Sinos´s basin lowlands up to 8600 years BP the climate would be moderate and relatively wet allowing a mixing environment of C3 and C4 plants; between 8,600 and 6,900 years high temperatures and probably intense rainfall lead to a domain of C4 vegetation filds. From 6,900 to 5,600 years the temperature become milder and the climat remains humid enabling the first advances of pioneer forest formations associated with Atlantic Forest. After 5,600 years especially after 4,000 years BP Atlantic biomes forests advance on open and humid areas forming the current characteristic mosaic landscape. To describe past diversity (chapter 2), 13,617 post-cranial skeleton\'s bones and 1,716 cranial parts and rodent teeth were analyzed. These samples have a inferred ages range from 6,200 years to present and 30 taxa were identified. To current diversity description were sample seven sites and was collected about 5 kg of owl\'s pellets (probably same forming agent of past samples) which 1,595 fragments were found and 18 taxa were identified. Combining present and past samples, a fauna catalog could be organized which includes 33 taxa among there are five locally extinct species (Kunsia sp., Clyomys sp., . Pseudoryzomys simplex, Necromys cf. obscurus e cf. Thalpomys) and one totally extinct (Dicolpomys fossor). In order to establish paleoclimatic scenarios and describe the changes of these communities throughout the Holocene, information on habitat diversity, past and present species diversity, palynological and isotopic data has been integrated (Chapter 3) and it has been found that there are generally reasonable coherence between paleoenvironmental change scenarios established in previous pollen studies with the interpretations suggested by the new analysis results in rodent, pollinic and isotopic communities presented in this work. The main exception to hypotheses for Holocene changes in landscape are that floodplain region among Taquari, Jacui, Caí, Sinos and Gravataí rivers must have been dominated by wide flooded areas very similar with Pantanal due to nowadays semi fossils rodent taxa presence and Blastocerus dichotomus presence (which was predated by indigenous in RS and today has a relictual population in APA do Banhado Grande, RS). In Chapter 4 was made a relatively new approach, using geometric morphometry to study Sigmodontinae. The results present that the effect of dental wear is quite diferente between past and presente populations of Pseudoryzomys. Associating linear morphological analyzes the set of variations should have close relation with the population´s \"attempt\" of keep up with scenery change and, consequently, of diet changes.

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Globalization and human-domination of the globe have increased the complexity, scope and pace of human-environment interactions in ways that have fundamentally reconfigured the opportunities and challenges for sustainability. As a result, what society needs from science has shifted. Society and scientists alike now call for new ways of doing science that can support decision-makers to confront the complexity and uncertainty of sustainability in today’s more globalized world. The research presented in this thesis contributes to answering this call. The goal of the research was to examine complexities in how globalization shapes the opportunities and challenges for pursuing sustainability. It was conducted in a region of the world where human-environment interactions have been fundamentally transformed by globalization: Latin America. The research used a two-tiered, qualitative case study approach to examine environmental policy-making in Costa Rica and land-use management in Costa Rica’s dry North West. It had three specific objectives: 1. To analyze how environmental policy-making in Costa Rica was influenced by the transfer of policy ideas between the international and Costa Rican political systems; 2. To trial a novel methodology for conducting qualitative land-use research that can support natural resource managers to pursue sustainability while maintaining a high level of scientific credibility; and, 3. To examine the specific processes of forest recovery and rural livelihood change in Costa Rica’s dry North West, and their implications for sustainability and forest management. This research makes three key contributions to our understanding of interactions between globalization, sustainability and complex social-ecological systems. First, it counters a tendency towards oversimplification in both theories and solutions for sustainability. It shows that neither generalized large-scale theories nor single blueprint solutions are adequate on their own to address the complex reality of environmental policy-making and land-use management in Costa Rica today. Second, it demonstrates how the potential of qualitative research to support natural resource managers can be more fully realized through methodological innovation. Third, it reveals important ways that environmental policy-makers and natural resource managers can avoid the pitfalls of oversimplification to more directly confront the complexities of pursuing sustainability under globalization.

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