For the actors in the Swedish forest industry, it is important to have the ability to forecast the state in the private forests. The information that comes out of the forecasts will be the base for the activities strategic direction. The aim in this exam is to survey what information that is present today as basis for forecast calculation, and even to examine what other possibilities it might have in the future. From a limited geography and out of different time perspective forecast the felling potential in the private forestry. With the word felling potential means regeneration felling and thinning. The exam will answer the questions: What information is needed to build a relevant forecast model? Is this information available today? Is there information to buy that would improve the forecast model? The result of this exam will be presented in form of a ”case study” showing the opportunities in the market to create a forecast calculation of felling potential in the private forestry within the Forest Owners’ Association Mellanskogs wood-area Dalarna.

<p>For the actors in the Swedish forest industry, it is important to have the ability to forecast the state in the private</p><p>forests. The information that comes out of the forecasts will be the base for the activities strategic direction.</p><p>The aim in this exam is to survey what information that is present today as basis for forecast calculation, and</p><p>even to examine what other possibilities it might have in the future.</p><p>From a limited geography and out of different time perspective forecast the felling potential in the private</p><p>forestry.</p><p>With the word felling potential means regeneration felling and thinning. The exam will answer the questions:</p><p>What information is needed to build a relevant forecast model?</p><p>Is this information available today?</p><p>Is there information to buy that would improve the forecast model?</p><p>The result of this exam will be presented in form of a ”case study” showing the opportunities in the market to</p><p>create a forecast calculation of felling potential in the private forestry within the Forest Owners’ Association</p><p>Mellanskogs wood-area Dalarna.</p>

This study explores the biophysical potential and economic attractiveness of black spruce (Picea mariana) regeneration in eastern Canada under future climate changes. It integrates process-based ecosystem model simulated forest productivities from three major global climate models (GCMs), growth and yield formulations specific to black spruce and economic analyses to determine the overall investment value of black spruce, both including and excluding carbon sequestration benefits. Net present value (NPV) was estimated to represent the financial attractiveness of long-rotation forest plantations through time. It was assumed that stands would not be harvested at volumes less than 80 m3 ha-1. The price of stumpage was set to $20 m-3, stand establishment cost was set to $500 ha-1, and the discount rate was considered at 4%, with sensitivity analyses conducted around these assumptions. The growth and yield of black spruce was simulated for an extreme future climate scenario – IPCC-RCP 8.5. The results suggested a general North-South gradient in forest productivity where gross merchantable wood volumes increased with decreasing latitudes. This pattern was also observed in NPVs, with higher values projected for the southern portion of the study area. Based on the base economic assumptions and sensitivity analyses, study results suggested that black spruce plantations are not economically attractive, unless carbon sequestration benefits of at least $5 ton-1 CO2 are realized. Further sensitivity analyses showed that discount rate plays a significant role in determining the optimal harvest age and value. Furthermore, the optimal harvest rotation age increases with increasing carbon price by approximately 9 to 18 years. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

Orientador: Miguel Luiz Menezes Freitas / Resumo: Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze ou pinheiro-do-paraná é uma espécie florestal fornecedora de madeira valiosa e sementes de alto valor nutritivo, mas considerada em risco de extinção. A manutenção de plantios com a finalidade de conservação da espécie é uma estratégia complementar para reduzir a possibilidade de erosão genética em seu habitat natural. Assim, este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a viabilidade técnica e econômica da conservação genética da Araucaria angustifolia a partir de um teste de procedências e progênies, que será transformado em uma área de produção de sementes, com a finalidade de manter uma representação da base genética da espécie e fornecer material genético de qualidade para fins de produção de madeira e sementes. Estabeleceu-se o experimento em abril de 1982, na Estação Experimental de Itapeva, do Instituto Florestal, no Estado de São Paulo. O delineamento experimental adotado foi em blocos de famílias compactas com três repetições, cinco procedências (parcelas), 14 a 26 progênies/procedência (subparcelas), 10 plantas por subparcela e espaçamento de 3,0 x 2,0 metros. Avaliou-se o experimento aos 33 anos de idade tendo sido considerado os seguintes caracteres: sobrevivência (%), altura total (m), diâmetro à altura do peito (DAP, cm) e volume (m³). A análise genético-estatística do experimento com o auxílio do software Selegen estimou os parâmetros genéticos, conforme a metodologia do modelo linear misto univariado aditivo REML/BLUP (Res... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze is a kind forest species supplier wooden valuable and seeds of recognized nutritional value, however considered threatened on extinction. Plantations maintenance with species conservation purpose is a complementary strategy to reduce genetic erosion in natural areas. So, the aim of this work was to evaluate technical and economic viability of Araucaria angustifolia genetic conservation by the use. The analyzed provenance and progeny test was established in 1982 at Itapeva Experimental Station – São Paulo State, from Forestry Institute, following a compact family blocks design with 110 open-pollinated progenies, from five natural populations, three replicates, ten plants per subplot, spaced from 3,0 x 2,0 meters. At age 33 the trial was measured for following traits: total height, diameter at breast height (DBH), wood volume and survival. The variance components and genetic parameters estimates were performed by REML/BLUP methods (Restricted maximum likelihood/Best linear unbiased prediction) using Selegen software. The production and management scenarios were obtained by using SisAraucaria software. Sensitivity analysis and economic parameters estimates were obtained through several methods of economic evaluation using the Planin software. In general, genetic parameters indicated that the evaluated population has enough variability for both conservation and breeding, and it suggests a technical viability use in seedling seed orchard.... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Doutor

Neste trabalho são estudados os programas de fomento florestal desenvolvidos pela indústria de celulose, cuja participação na matriz de suprimento de madeira para esse segmento industrial é crescente, já ocupando a segunda posição. A indústria de celulose caracteriza-se pelo elevado grau de integração vertical à montante, sendo a madeira processamento por esse segmento, predominantemente produzida pelas próprias empresas. Diversas condições, como restrições das normas ambientais, e custos de produção limitam a expansão de novos plantios por meio da integração vertical, levando as maiores empresas a desenvolverem a estratégia da coordenação vertical por meio de arrendamentos, parcerias e programas de fomento florestal. Neste estudo foram analisados os programas de fomento florestal na indústria de celulose, considerando as características de seus contratos, os incentivos e suas performances, com base na nova economia institucional, destacando-se a teoria dos contratos incompletos de longo prazo, com suporte na econômica dos custos de transação. Para a pesquisa utilizou-se no primeiro momento, a abordagem qualitativa da pesquisa exploratória e descritiva do estudo de casos múltiplos, por meio de entrevistas semi-estruturadas. No segundo momento, aplicou-se questionário semi-estruturado para realizar as coletas de dados. As análises de dados indicam que os programas de fomento florestal ocupam a segunda posição na matriz de suprimento de madeira para processamento da indústria de celulose, cuja participação tende a crescer. De modo geral, as análises indicam a tendência de substituição da integração vertical do suprimento de madeira, pela coordenação vertical por meio de contratos de longo prazo. A participação do fomento florestal e do mercado no suprimento de madeira para processamento vem aumentando. Dentre outras razões, a indústria de celulose procura reduzir os custos associados à imobilização em terras e o aumento da oferta de madeira para processamento. As conclusões evidenciam que a legislação ambiental não exerce influências em favor da opção pelo fomento florestal, mas confirmam a opção pelo mesmo para facilitar o acesso e disponibilidade eficiente a terras para cultivo florestal. Confirma-se a hipótese de adequação dos mecanismos de incentivos nos programas de fomento florestal, com modalidades diferentes, para atender a diferentes classes de produtores fomentados, principalmente de acordo com o porte de suas propriedades. Exceto o fomento de extensão, os demais programas de fomento florestal utilizam cláusula contratual de opção de compra da produção. As condições para fornecimento de mudas e insumos, os adiantamentos financeiros e à assistência técnica, são semelhantes em todos os programas de fomento. O fomento florestal tem limitações para adoção isolada por pequenas e médias empresas devido aos riscos de oportunismo dos fomentados ante à entrada de concorrentes. Sua estruturação é preferivelmente trilateral: os pequenos agricultores ou proprietários; as empresas consumidoras de madeira; o governo, que também envolve a sociedade. / In this work are studied the programs of forest furtherance developed by the cellulose industry, whose participation in the wood supply matrix for that industrial segment is growing, already occupying the second position. The cellulose industry is characterized by the high degree of vertical integration to amount, being the wood processing for that segment, predominantly produced by the own companies. Several conditions, as restrictions of the environmental norms, and production costs limit the expansion of new plantings through the vertical integration, taking the largest companies develop her the strategy of the vertical coordination through leases, partnerships and programs of forest furtherance. In this study the programs of forest furtherance were analyzed in the cellulose industry, considering the characteristics of their contracts, the incentives and their performances, based on the new institutional economy, standing out the theory of the incomplete long term contracts, with support to the transaction costs economy. For the research it was used in the first moment, the qualitative approach of the exploratory and descriptive research of the study of multiple cases, through semi-structured interviews. In the second moment, semi-structured questionnaire was applied to accomplish the collections of data. The analyses of data indicate that the programs of forest furtherance occupy the second position in the matrix of wood supply for processing of the cellulose industry, whose participation tends to grow. In general, the analyses indicate the tendency of substitution of the vertical integration of the wood supply, for the vertical coordination through long terms contracts. The forest furtherance and market participations of wood supply for processing are increasing. Among other reasons, the cellulose industry tries to reduce the costs associated to the fixed assets in lands and to increase wood offer for processing. The conclusions evidence that environmental legislation doesn\'t exercise influences in favor of the option for the forest furtherance, but they confirm the option for the same to facilitate the access and efficient availability to lands for forest crop. The hypothesis of adaptation of the mechanisms of incentives is confirmed in the programs of forest furtherance, with different modalities, to attend to different classes of encouraged producers, mainly pursuant to the size of their farms. Except the extension furtherance, the other programs of forest furtherance use contractual sentence to purchase option of output. The conditions for supply of seedlings and inputs, the financial improvements and the technical assistance, are similar in all furtherance programs. The forest furtherance fomentation has limitations for isolated adoption for small and averages companies due to the risks of opportunism of the fomented before to the entrance of competitive. Your structuring is preferably trilateral: the small farmers or proprietors; the consuming companies of wood; the government, that also involves society.

The future of the sawmill industry is uncertain; this is partly due to its internal structural changes, but also due to structural changes amongst their customers. Concurrently, competition within the industry is increasing, and therefore focus is constantly being placed on reducing costs and leveraging economies of scale. However, in order for sawmills to benefit from economies of scale, it is necessary to work with a well thought-out logistics strategy. This doctoral dissertation aims at identifying and describing the customers' logistics service requirements as well as describing and analyzing logistic strategies in the sawmill industry. The dissertation identifies and defines some of the sawmills customers' logistics service requirements and establishes a theoretical framework for logistics strategies, as well as it studies logistics strategies in the sawmill industry. House-builders and traditional retailers appear to focus on similar logistics service requirements, whereas the logistics service requirement of the DIY multiple retailers differ. Furthermore, this dissertation provides a general definition of logistics strategy that has been operationalized by generic logistics strategies. The sawmill industry makes use of generic logistics strategies such as differentiation and postponement. The individual sawmills ought to consider improving their process performance by implementing additional generic logistics strategies as well as increasing their utilization of generic logistics strategies that are already implemented. The sawmill industry's utilization of generic logistics strategies is however restricted by its own supplier market (including uncertainties of quality of incoming material), and also by the inherent nature of commodity products, as well as divergent material flows.

Wildtierökonomik- ist eine Kunst des Denkens. In dieser Tradition analysiert man Interessenkonflikte um die Bewirtschaftung von Wildtierpopulationen als zwischenmenschliche Probleme auf rationaler Grundlage. Die Basis bilden theoretisch akzeptierte und empirisch fundierte Zusammenhänge mit deren Anwendung das Problem des Wald Wild Konflikts in ein Mensch Mensch Konflikt übersetzt und analysiert werden kann. Da von allgemeingültigen Zusammenhängen kommend, argumentiert wird, beinhaltet die Forschungskonzeption Wildtierökonomik alle Wildtierpopulationen mit den daraus abzuleitenden Problemfeldern. Diese Vorgehensweise ist an Modellbedingungen geknüpft. Unter der Akzeptanz der Modellbedingungen können Aussagesysteme zur Wildschadenregulierung, Gestaltung von Jagdpachtverträgen oder Novellierung von Jagdgesetzen formuliert werden, die der Spezifikation von Wilddichten nicht bedürfen.

Submitted by Jose Arimateia Rabelo Machado (j.rabelomachado@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-10-03T17:20:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 José_Arimatéia_Rabelo_Machado_TESE.pdf: 2024903 bytes, checksum: a132fde6707feeb4ce5332d54cd29e32 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Cristina Alexandra de Godoy null (cristina@adm.feis.unesp.br) on 2018-10-03T19:14:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 machado_jar_dr_ilha.pdf: 2269083 bytes, checksum: 4b12567aa4c4c01a5e22ddb916e96652 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-03T19:14:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 machado_jar_dr_ilha.pdf: 2269083 bytes, checksum: 4b12567aa4c4c01a5e22ddb916e96652 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-23 / Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze ou pinheiro-do-paraná é uma espécie florestal fornecedora de madeira valiosa e sementes de alto valor nutritivo, mas considerada em risco de extinção. A manutenção de plantios com a finalidade de conservação da espécie é uma estratégia complementar para reduzir a possibilidade de erosão genética em seu habitat natural. Assim, este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a viabilidade técnica e econômica da conservação genética da Araucaria angustifolia a partir de um teste de procedências e progênies, que será transformado em uma área de produção de sementes, com a finalidade de manter uma representação da base genética da espécie e fornecer material genético de qualidade para fins de produção de madeira e sementes. Estabeleceu-se o experimento em abril de 1982, na Estação Experimental de Itapeva, do Instituto Florestal, no Estado de São Paulo. O delineamento experimental adotado foi em blocos de famílias compactas com três repetições, cinco procedências (parcelas), 14 a 26 progênies/procedência (subparcelas), 10 plantas por subparcela e espaçamento de 3,0 x 2,0 metros. Avaliou-se o experimento aos 33 anos de idade tendo sido considerado os seguintes caracteres: sobrevivência (%), altura total (m), diâmetro à altura do peito (DAP, cm) e volume (m³). A análise genético-estatística do experimento com o auxílio do software Selegen estimou os parâmetros genéticos, conforme a metodologia do modelo linear misto univariado aditivo REML/BLUP (Restricted maximum likelihood/Best linear unbiased prediction). A viabilidade econômica foi avaliada a partir dos cenários de produção e manejo, obtidos com o auxílio do software SISAraucaria, e da estimação dos parâmetros econômicos pelo software Planin. Os parâmetros genéticos indicaram boas condições tanto para a conservação quanto para o melhoramento, sugerindo haver viabilidade técnica para a transformação do teste em uma área de produção de sementes. Os parâmetros econômicos indicaram viabilidade da conservação, com a exploração da madeira, apesar do baixo crescimento e manejo inadequado do experimento. A exploração conjunta de madeira e pinhão se revelou uma estratégia altamente rentável, viável e recomendável, considerando os parâmetros econômicos estimados. A produção de sementes com qualidade genética superior poderá subsidiar novos plantios com maior produtividade do que à encontrada na população atual. Conclui-se que a conservação genética da araucária pelo uso é uma estratégia de conservação ex situ viável técnica e economicamente. / Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze is a kind forest species supplier wooden valuable and seeds of recognized nutritional value, however considered threatened on extinction. Plantations maintenance with species conservation purpose is a complementary strategy to reduce genetic erosion in natural areas. So, the aim of this work was to evaluate technical and economic viability of Araucaria angustifolia genetic conservation by the use. The analyzed provenance and progeny test was established in 1982 at Itapeva Experimental Station – São Paulo State, from Forestry Institute, following a compact family blocks design with 110 open-pollinated progenies, from five natural populations, three replicates, ten plants per subplot, spaced from 3,0 x 2,0 meters. At age 33 the trial was measured for following traits: total height, diameter at breast height (DBH), wood volume and survival. The variance components and genetic parameters estimates were performed by REML/BLUP methods (Restricted maximum likelihood/Best linear unbiased prediction) using Selegen software. The production and management scenarios were obtained by using SisAraucaria software. Sensitivity analysis and economic parameters estimates were obtained through several methods of economic evaluation using the Planin software. In general, genetic parameters indicated that the evaluated population has enough variability for both conservation and breeding, and it suggests a technical viability use in seedling seed orchard. The economic parameters indicated viability of conservation with wood exploitation, despite the low growth and the inadequate trial management. Exploitation of both: wood and seeds has proved to be a highly profitable, viable and recommended strategy facing the excellent estimates of economic parameters. The production of seeds with genetic quality may also support new plantations with higher productivity than those from current population. In conclusion, the araucaria genetic conservation by use is an technically and economic viable ex situ conservation strategy.

Neste trabalho são estudados os programas de fomento florestal desenvolvidos pela indústria de celulose, cuja participação na matriz de suprimento de madeira para esse segmento industrial é crescente, já ocupando a segunda posição. A indústria de celulose caracteriza-se pelo elevado grau de integração vertical à montante, sendo a madeira processamento por esse segmento, predominantemente produzida pelas próprias empresas. Diversas condições, como restrições das normas ambientais, e custos de produção limitam a expansão de novos plantios por meio da integração vertical, levando as maiores empresas a desenvolverem a estratégia da coordenação vertical por meio de arrendamentos, parcerias e programas de fomento florestal. Neste estudo foram analisados os programas de fomento florestal na indústria de celulose, considerando as características de seus contratos, os incentivos e suas performances, com base na nova economia institucional, destacando-se a teoria dos contratos incompletos de longo prazo, com suporte na econômica dos custos de transação. Para a pesquisa utilizou-se no primeiro momento, a abordagem qualitativa da pesquisa exploratória e descritiva do estudo de casos múltiplos, por meio de entrevistas semi-estruturadas. No segundo momento, aplicou-se questionário semi-estruturado para realizar as coletas de dados. As análises de dados indicam que os programas de fomento florestal ocupam a segunda posição na matriz de suprimento de madeira para processamento da indústria de celulose, cuja participação tende a crescer. De modo geral, as análises indicam a tendência de substituição da integração vertical do suprimento de madeira, pela coordenação vertical por meio de contratos de longo prazo. A participação do fomento florestal e do mercado no suprimento de madeira para processamento vem aumentando. Dentre outras razões, a indústria de celulose procura reduzir os custos associados à imobilização em terras e o aumento da oferta de madeira para processamento. As conclusões evidenciam que a legislação ambiental não exerce influências em favor da opção pelo fomento florestal, mas confirmam a opção pelo mesmo para facilitar o acesso e disponibilidade eficiente a terras para cultivo florestal. Confirma-se a hipótese de adequação dos mecanismos de incentivos nos programas de fomento florestal, com modalidades diferentes, para atender a diferentes classes de produtores fomentados, principalmente de acordo com o porte de suas propriedades. Exceto o fomento de extensão, os demais programas de fomento florestal utilizam cláusula contratual de opção de compra da produção. As condições para fornecimento de mudas e insumos, os adiantamentos financeiros e à assistência técnica, são semelhantes em todos os programas de fomento. O fomento florestal tem limitações para adoção isolada por pequenas e médias empresas devido aos riscos de oportunismo dos fomentados ante à entrada de concorrentes. Sua estruturação é preferivelmente trilateral: os pequenos agricultores ou proprietários; as empresas consumidoras de madeira; o governo, que também envolve a sociedade. / In this work are studied the programs of forest furtherance developed by the cellulose industry, whose participation in the wood supply matrix for that industrial segment is growing, already occupying the second position. The cellulose industry is characterized by the high degree of vertical integration to amount, being the wood processing for that segment, predominantly produced by the own companies. Several conditions, as restrictions of the environmental norms, and production costs limit the expansion of new plantings through the vertical integration, taking the largest companies develop her the strategy of the vertical coordination through leases, partnerships and programs of forest furtherance. In this study the programs of forest furtherance were analyzed in the cellulose industry, considering the characteristics of their contracts, the incentives and their performances, based on the new institutional economy, standing out the theory of the incomplete long term contracts, with support to the transaction costs economy. For the research it was used in the first moment, the qualitative approach of the exploratory and descriptive research of the study of multiple cases, through semi-structured interviews. In the second moment, semi-structured questionnaire was applied to accomplish the collections of data. The analyses of data indicate that the programs of forest furtherance occupy the second position in the matrix of wood supply for processing of the cellulose industry, whose participation tends to grow. In general, the analyses indicate the tendency of substitution of the vertical integration of the wood supply, for the vertical coordination through long terms contracts. The forest furtherance and market participations of wood supply for processing are increasing. Among other reasons, the cellulose industry tries to reduce the costs associated to the fixed assets in lands and to increase wood offer for processing. The conclusions evidence that environmental legislation doesn\'t exercise influences in favor of the option for the forest furtherance, but they confirm the option for the same to facilitate the access and efficient availability to lands for forest crop. The hypothesis of adaptation of the mechanisms of incentives is confirmed in the programs of forest furtherance, with different modalities, to attend to different classes of encouraged producers, mainly pursuant to the size of their farms. Except the extension furtherance, the other programs of forest furtherance use contractual sentence to purchase option of output. The conditions for supply of seedlings and inputs, the financial improvements and the technical assistance, are similar in all furtherance programs. The forest furtherance fomentation has limitations for isolated adoption for small and averages companies due to the risks of opportunism of the fomented before to the entrance of competitive. Your structuring is preferably trilateral: the small farmers or proprietors; the consuming companies of wood; the government, that also involves society.

Wildtierökonomik- ist eine Kunst des Denkens. In dieser Tradition analysiert man Interessenkonflikte um die Bewirtschaftung von Wildtierpopulationen als zwischenmenschliche Probleme auf rationaler Grundlage. Die Basis bilden theoretisch akzeptierte und empirisch fundierte Zusammenhänge mit deren Anwendung das Problem des Wald Wild Konflikts in ein Mensch Mensch Konflikt übersetzt und analysiert werden kann. Da von allgemeingültigen Zusammenhängen kommend, argumentiert wird, beinhaltet die Forschungskonzeption Wildtierökonomik alle Wildtierpopulationen mit den daraus abzuleitenden Problemfeldern. Diese Vorgehensweise ist an Modellbedingungen geknüpft. Unter der Akzeptanz der Modellbedingungen können Aussagesysteme zur Wildschadenregulierung, Gestaltung von Jagdpachtverträgen oder Novellierung von Jagdgesetzen formuliert werden, die der Spezifikation von Wilddichten nicht bedürfen.