Strutturata in 3 articoli, la tesi analizza il ruolo delle foreste all’interno delle politiche climatiche. Il Capitolo 1 valuta diversi tentativi di rappresentazione della mitigazione land-based - di cui il carbonio forestale rappresenta un importante componente - e offre spunti per migliorare la ricerca in quest’ambito. I Capitoli 2 e 3 presentano due diversi approcci modellistici sul ruolo delle foreste nella mitigazione climatica, all’interno di un modello di equilibrio generale computazionale. Entrambi i metodi assumono un impegno unilaterale Europeo nel ridurre del 20% e 30% le emissioni di CO2 entro il 2020. Il primo approccio, sviluppato nel Capitolo 2, viene rifinito nel Capitolo 3, dove le scelte di allocazione della terra risultano pienamente endogene e il carbonio derivante dall’intensificazione e l’estensificazione forestale è modellizzato separatamente. L’attribuzione di un ruolo alle foreste riduce costi della politica climatica, corrispondenti prezzi del carbonio, e l’effetto leakage. I risultati si presentano qualitativamente simili per entrambe le analisi. Nonostante le foreste europee possano alleviare lo sforzo di mitigazione dei settori energy-intensive, la loro contribuzione come unica strategia di abbattimento risulta insufficiente per il raggiungimento dei targets di riduzione delle emissioni. Un miglior risultato si otterrebbe se altre regioni prendessero parte agli accordi di stabilizzazione climatica. / This thesis, structured in 3 Chapters, analyses the role of forests within a climate policy framework. Chapter 1 critically assesses main existing approaches attempting to represent land-based mitigation, of which forest carbon is a prominent component. It offers important insights on aspects to be improved when modelling land-using activity and forestry. Chapters 2 and 3 present two different methods to model the role of forests in climate mitigation within a global computable-general-equilibrium-model (CGE). Both approaches assume Europe independently committed to reduce CO2 emissions of 20% or 30% by 2020. The first methodology, presented in Chapter 2, is further refined in Chapter 3, to render landowners’ choices on land allocation fully endogenous, and to model carbon from forestry intensification and extensification separately. Envisioning a role for forests reduces climate policy costs, the corresponding carbon price, as well as the leakage effect. These outcomes result qualitatively similar in sign for both analysis. Although European forests can alleviate the burden on energy-intensive sectors, their contribution as a stand-alone abatement strategy results insufficient to comply with the emissions reduction targets. A better result would have been reached if other regions were allowed to take part in climate stabilization agreement.

Magistro darbe tiriama kiek medienos ruošos nuostolių lieka biržėse po medienos ruošos rangovo darbų pridavimo. Darbo objektas – VĮ Alytaus miškų urėdija. Darbo tikslas - įvertinti, išanalizuoti ir apibendrinti stiebų medienos nuostolius, kurie susidaro ruošos metu eglynų pagrindinių ir ugdomųjų kirtimų biržėse. Darbo metodai – mokslinės ir normatyvinės literatūros šaltinių analizė, leidinių analizės metodas, instrumentinis metodas, statistinė duomenų analizė, loginis analitinis metodas, Darbo rezultatai. Tyrime pateikiama medienos ruošos nuostolių įvertinimo analizė, kertant plynų pagrindinių ir ugdomųjų kirtimų biržes eglynuose. Iš viso tyrimui medienos ruošos nuostoliai buvo matuojami 21-oje biržėje. Iš jų 9-iose plynų pagrindinių kirtimų biržėse, 6-iose einamųjų ugdomųjų kirtimų biržėse ir 6-iose retinimų ugdomųjų kirtimų biržėse. Kertant plynais pagrindiniais kirtimais eglynus vidutiniškai sumatuotas atliekų tūris randamas vienoje biržėje siekia 2,4 % nuo ištrauktos likvidinės medienos kiekio. Kertant einamaisiais ugdomaisiais kirtimais eglynus vidutiniškas atliekų tūris iš vienos biržės siekia 1,7 % nuo ištrauktos likvidinės medienos kiekio. Kertant retinimo ugdomaisiais kirtimais eglynus vidutiniškas atliekų tūris iš vienos biržės siekia 2,2 % nuo ištrauktos likvidinės medienos kiekio.Kertant plynais pagrindiniais kirtimais, einamaisiais ugdomaisiais kirtimais ir retinimais ugdomaisiais kirtimais eglynus vidutiniškas atliekų tūris iš vienos biržės siekia 2,1 % nuo... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / In master thesis work we were doing research of timber losses in stands after contractor work. The object of research: Alytaus Forest Enterprice. Estimation methods: scientific and normative literary analysis, instrumental method, statistical data analysis, logical analytical method. Work results. We were doing estimation of timber losses during cuttings in spruce stands. Results of timber looses during cutting on 21 stands are estimated, in 9 clear cutting stands, in 6 last thinning stands and 6 before last thinning stands. After clear cuttings was found approximately 2,4 % timber losses in spruce stand. After last thinning was found approximately 1,7 % timber losses in spruce stand. After before last thinning was found approximately 2,2 % timber losses in spruce stand. An average looses in spruce stands on investigated site types and cutting methods are 2,1 % of merchantable timber.

Magistro darbe tiriama kiek medienos ruošos nuostolių lieka beržynų biržėse po medienos ruošos rangovo darbų pridavimo žiemos metu. Darbo objektas – Beržynų plynų ir einamųjų žiemą kirtimo biržių, stiebų medienos nuostoliai. Darbo tikslas - Įvertinti, išanalizuoti ir apibendrinti stiebų medienos nuostolius, kurie susidaro ruošos metu beržynų pagrindinių ir ugdomųjų kirtimų biržėse žiemos metu. Darbo metodai: 1. Tiriant miškų ūkio sistemą ir jos teisinio reglamentavimo ypatumus buvo naudojamas mokslinės ir normatyvinės literatūros šaltinių analizės metodas, leidinių analizės metodas. 2. Instrumentinio metodo pagalba, naudojant žergles ir juostą, turinčia 1 mm gradaciją, buvo atlikti stiebo atliekų vidurio skersmenų matavimai ir nustatytas tiriamojo barelio plotas. 3. Statistinės duomenų analizės metodas, naudojant MS OFFICE 2003 EXCEL ir Statistica V9 programas, pasitelktas susisteminti ir apipavidalinti tyrimo metu gautus rezultatus. 4. Loginis analitinis metodas Darbo rezultatai. Nuostoliai buvo skaičiuojami beržynų biržėse žiemos metu, kuriuose kirtimai buvo vykdomi L hidrotopo c trofotopo ir L hidrotopo d trofotopo augavietėse. Išviso duomenų buvo surinkta iš 21 biržių, kurias sudarė 13 plyno kirtimo biržės ir 8 einamojo kirtimo biržės. Paskaičiavus kirtimo atliekas absoliutiniais dydžiais gauname, kad L hidrotope d trofotope gaunamas didžiausias atliekų kiekis. Palyginus plynus ir einamuosius kirtimus matomi dideli skirtumai kirtimo nuostolių kiekyje. Didžiausias... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / In master thesis work we were doing research of timber losses in stands after contractor work the winter. The object of the research: Birch bare and winter crossing of the current stock, stem the loss of timber. The aim of the research: Assess, analyze and summarize the stem wood loss that will occur during the logging main birch and educational cuttings in stands during the winter. Estimation methods: 1. Study forestry system and its peculiarities of legal regulation has been used in the scientific literature and normative analysis method, the method of analysis of publications. 2. Instrumental approach to aid, and the calipers are using a bar having a 1 mm graduation, it was a mid-stem diameter measurements of the waste and the test plot. 3. Statistical data analysis method, using MS Office 2003 Excel and Statistica v9 programs invoked to structure and finishes the test results. 4. Logical analytical approach Work results. Losses were calculated in birch stands during the winter, where cuttings were made hidrotope L c and L trofotope hidrotope on trofotope sites. Total flue were collected from 21 stock markets, which accounted for 13 clear-cut stock and 8, rolling stock crossing. Calculated the absolute value of cutting the waste we get that L d hidrotope trofotope obtain the maximum amount of waste. The comparison of the current felling smooth and seen significant differences in cooking loss harvesting. The biggest loss of 10.82 points m3/ha recorded in mixed birch... [to full text]

Les forêts de l'Union Européenne croissent de 1.2 milliards de m³ par an. La moitié de ce volume reste en forêt. L'autre moitié alimente trois filières industrielles: la filière matériaux, la filière papiers et la filière énergie. Ces flux de produits industriels sont mis en mouvement et financés par divers consommateurs. Or depuis 2000, la consommation change de régime, au point de perturber fortement certains flux de bois et d'impacter l'emploi et la balance commerciale du secteur. Pour prévoir l'impact de ces changements, les économistes modélisent les relations entre l'offre de matières premières, la demande de produits finis, les prix, la production et le commerce international. Cette thèse construit un modèle empirique à même d'évaluer l'impact de ces changements pour le secteur forêt-bois en Europe.Un chapitre introductif définit le contexte des ressources forestières et des produits analysés au niveau macroéconomique. Puis je présente les principaux modèles en équilibre partiel utilisés pour les études prospectives du secteur forêt-bois. A partir d'un cadre général incluant la production et le commerce international, je détaille les problèmes spécifiques rencontrés lors de l'estimation des fonctions de demande. Un deuxième chapitre étudie l'impact potentiel d'un accord commercial entre l'Union Européenne et les États-Unis sur le secteur forestier. Nous avons trouvé que le bien-être total augmenterait dans la région de l'accord et diminuerait légèrement ailleurs. De plus l'accord est plus avantageux pour les consommateurs que pour les producteurs. Les résultats montrent aussi que des pays tiers sont impactés par l'accord, ce qui souligne l'importance d'utiliser un modèle mondial. Dans un troisième chapitre, j'estime les élasticités prix et revenu de la demande en produits forestiers sur un panel de pays européens. Je traite des problèmes de non stationnarité en panel et j'estime les élasticités au sein de panels cointégrés. Les élasticités de demande sont inférieures aux estimations précédentes dans la littérature. Ces élasticités robustes insérées dans un modèle secteur forêt-bois projettent une demande plus faible sur une période de 20 ans. Dans un quatrième chapitre, j'analyse les changements structurels dans la consommation de papier. J'utilise un modèle économétrique sur données de panel permettant d'estimer les effets de seuil dans la relation entre l'utilisation des technologies de l'information et la consommation de papier: papier journal, papier d'impression et papier d'écriture. Je montre comment l'élasticité de demande de papier dépend de la pénétration d'internet dans la population. Un effet de seuil a lieu lorsque la majorité d'une population a accès à internet. Après le seuil, les coefficients liant la consommation et ses variables explicatives (prix et revenu) diminuent en valeur absolue ou changent de signe. A partir d'une projection du nombre d'utilisateurs d'internet par pays, les projections de consommation de papier pourraient être mises à jour avec ce type de modèles à transition. Une plus faible demande de papier libère des ressources et les rend disponibles pour le développement d'autres produits et services forestiers innovants. / Forests in the European Union grow by 1.2 billion m³ per year. Half of this volume stays in the forest, in particular for sustainable forest management purposes. The other half flows into three industrial sectors: wooden material, paper products and wood energy. These industrial product flows are set into motion and paid for by diverse final consumers. Since 2000, consumption is undergoing important structural changes which cause large disturbances in material, paper and fuel flows. To predict the impact of these changes, economists model relationships between raw material supply, final products demand, prices, production and international trade. This thesis uses panel data econometrics to estimate parameters of empirical models. An introductory chapter sets the policy context of forest resources and forest products of interest at a macroeconomic level. Then I review major forest sector models and I focus on issues encountered while estimating parameters of demand models. A second chapter investigates the potential impact of a trade agreement between the EU and the US on the forest sector. We found that total welfare would increase in the region of the agreement, in addition the agreement benefits more to consumers than to producers. Results show that third party countries are impacted by the agreement too, which highlights the importance of using a global trade model in analysing the impacts of the agreement. In a third chapter I estimate revenue and price elasticities of demand for forest products on a panel of European countries. I deal with non stationarity issues and estimate demand elasticities within cointegrated panels. I demonstrate that revenue elasticities of demand are lower than previous estimates from the literature. Simulations using these robust elasticities in a forest sector model, show a lower demand over a 20 years time horizon. In a fourth chapter, I analyse structural changes in paper products consumption. For this purpose, I use a panel threshold model to estimate the relationship between information technology use and paper products consumption: newsprint, printing and writing paper. I show how paper demand elasticities depend on internet penetration in the population. Thresholds occur once a majority of the population has access to the internet. After the threshold, coefficients between paper consumption and its explanatory variables revenue and price become smaller in absolute terms or even change sign. Based on projections of the number of internet users per country, paper consumption projections could be updated with this type of thresholds models. From a policy perspective, lower demand for graphics paper would free resources and make them available for innovative forest products and services.

Forests are key providers of terrestrial ecosystem services such as climate regulation, water purification, natural pest control, habitats for biodiversity, as well as different forms of wood based materials and food. Nevertheless forests are dangerously exposed to great pressures from various kinds of societal activities. This report examines the importance of forests for the (i) maintenance of life supporting functions of the biosphere as well as for (ii) providing a flexible resource base for the satisfying of human needs on more and more sustainability-driven markets. How can Swedish forestry be managed such that those two essential roles of forests become mutually supportive? The report also relates the results to three relevant and well-citied protocols for the subject: the Sustainable Development Goals in UN’s Agenda 2030, the Swedish Environmental Quality Objectives, and the Swedish National Forest Program. The approach applied Maxwell’s process design for qualitative research. Data have been collected from literature search and interviews of experts and the analytical instrument for modeling of data was the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD). The report concludes: Sustainable development for forestry relies on a paradigm shift in civilization’s perception of forestry to a practice where planning departures from envisioning a future where natural forest functions to sustain higher life forms and civilization are safeguarded and prioritized before other usages of forestland, and where diversity is enhanced in terms of tree age and species to foster more resilient and high-quality timber forests. When the above points are achieved, the higher diversity of more resilient forests should also have potential to supply markets with various kinds of resources offered to more and more sustainability driven markets. Furthermore, this development of society’s forest use increases the chances for civilization to be sustainable also with relatively smaller forest areas put aside for no forestry at all. In such a situation forestry and society have prioritized forest products and usages with long life spans before such with short. A future sustainable Swedish forest sector has recognized the above, and drawn an essential conclusion from it: the interdependency of forests with society’s overall sustainability performance calls for a cooperative approach that departures from an understanding of basic sustainability principles that are shared across sectors and disciplines. The Sustainable Development Goals, the Swedish Environmental Objectives and the Swedish National Forest Program all fail to take the above broad- systems perspective when it comes to proposing measures for the future, including how to advise further research to explore what the sustainable Swedish forestry could entail. The study arrives at pointing out an overall approach to analyses, planning and further research in those regards, rather than evaluating details on the path towards sustainable forestry. / Skogen är en nyckelresurs i den landbaserade naturen som förser samhället med ekosystemtjänster såsom klimatreglering, vattenrening, naturlig skadedjursbekämpning, habitat för biologisk mångfald, likväl som olika former av träfiberbaserade material och mat. Samtidigt är skogen hotad av kraftigt tryck från olika aktiviteter i samhället. Den här rapporten undersöker skogens betydelse för (i) upprätthållande av biosfärens livsuppehållande funktioner, samt som (ii) flexibel resurs när det gäller att förse mänskliga behov på alltmer hållbarhetsdrivna marknader. Hur bör skogen skötas så att dessa två roller stödjer varandra? Rapporten relaterar också resultaten till tre relevanta och vanligt citerade protokoll: hållbarhetsmålen i FNs Agenda 2030, de svenska miljömålen och det svenska nationella skogsprogrammet. Forskningen har strukturerats med hjälp av Maxwells process-design för kvalitativ forskning. Data har samlats in genom litteraturstudier och från intervjuer med experter. Modellering av data har gjorts genom att använda ramverket för strategisk hållbar utveckling (FSSD) som analysinstrument. Rapporten kommer fram till att: Hållbar utveckling för skogsbruket är beroende av ett paradigmskifte. En skogsskötsel där (i) planering utgår från att föreställa sig en framtid där skogens funktioner för högre liv på jorden är säkrade och satta före annan användning av skogsmark, och (ii) mångfald är främjad gällande trädens ålder och antalet arter så att mer resilienta skogar kan bidra med högkvalitativt timmer. När skogen förvaltas på det sättet så bör de mer diversa och resilienta skogarna ha möjlighet att förse marknader med olika resurser som kan visa sig vara viktiga på alltmer hållbarhetsdrivna marknader. Vidare borde denna utveckling av samhälles skogsanvändning öka chanserna för civilisationen att bli hållbar med relativt mindre ytor reserverade för att skyddas mot skogsbruk. Med en sådan förvaltning har skogsägare och samhället i stort prioriterat produkter och användningsområden med långa livslängder före sådana med korta livslängder. En framtida hållbar svensk skogssektor har insett allt ovanstående och dragit en väsentlig slutsats från det: beroendet mellan skogen och samhällets övergripande hållbarhetsarbete kräver samarbete utgående från grundläggande hållbarhetsprinciper som delas över sektors- och disciplingränser. Hållbarhetsmålen i Agenda 2030, de svenska miljömålen och det svenska nationella skogsprogrammet saknas alla ett tillräckligt brett systemperspektiv när det gäller att föreslå åtgärder för framtiden, inklusive att ge rekommendationer för framtida forskning om hållbart svenskt skogsbruk. Studien pekar snarare ut en övergripande inriktning för analyser, planering och forskning om hållbart svenskt skogsbruk, än utvärderar de exakta stegen på vägen dit.