Como a qualidade das instituições influencia a escolha estratégica para a proteção do direito de propriedade sobre a terra no Brasil? Na maior parte dos países, o Estado é o guardião do direito de propriedade sobre a terra porque usufrui vantagens no exercício da atividade e proporciona ganhos para a sociedade. Contudo, fragilidades institucionais atenuam a eficácia da proteção legal, levando a tentativas de captura de direitos imperfeitamente protegidos e fomentando ações de proteção pelos seus detentores, log criando cenário favorável a disputas. Dada a existência de fragilidades na definição e proteção dos direitos de propriedade sobre a terra no Brasil, este estudo analisa a relação entre o ambiente institucional e o emprego de arranjos privados para satisfazer a necessidade dos possuidores de direitos. Ele está dividido em quatro partes. A primeira, apresenta a evolução da teoria sobre a Análise Econômica dos Direitos de Propriedade e como foi incorporada à literatura de análise estratégica. Discute sob a ótica teórica as consequências de haver deficiência na proteção de direitos de propriedade pelo Estado. A segunda parte apresenta como os direitos de propriedade sobre a terra no Brasil foram formados e o ambiente institucional em nível nacional e internacional. Em seguida, caracteriza o setor de florestas plantadas e as disputas por terras a ele associadas. A quarta parte discute as estratégias privadas para suprir a debilidade do Estado na proteção de direitos, e é composta por um modelo teórico e por três estudos de caso de empresas brasileiras do setor de florestas plantadas. O modelo teórico relaciona a qualidade das instituições, o emprego de múltiplos mecanismos de proteção, o custo de transação para proteção de atributos alocados em domínio público e a importância dos mecanismos privados para a proteção dos direitos de propriedade. A última parte apresenta os resultados. O estudo empírico conclui que a qualidade das instituições (i) fundamenta a escolha estratégica e a adaptação organizacional para proteção de direitos de propriedade; (ii) determina o custo de transação para proteção do direito de propriedade através dos mecanismos formais; e, com destaque, (iii) determina a importância dos mecanismos privados para a proteção dos direitos de propriedade sobre a terra. / How does the quality of institutions influence the strategic choice for the protection of land property rights in Brazil? In most countries, the state is the steward of the property right over land because it enjoys advantages in the exercise of the activity and provides gains for society. However, institutional fragilities reduce the effectiveness of legal protection, leading to attempts to capture imperfectly protected rights, and promoting the adoption of protective measures on the part of their holders, thus creating a favorable scenario for disputes. Given the existence of vulnerabilities in the definition and protection of land rights in Brazil, this study analyzes the relationship between the institutional environment and the use of private arrangements to meet the needs of right holders. It is divided into four parts. The first one presents the evolution of the theory on Economic Analysis of Property Rights and how it was incorporated in the literature of strategic analysis. It discusses from a theoretical perspective the consequences of there being deficiencies in the protection of property rights by the State. The second part shows how land property rights in Brazil were formed and the institutional environment both at national and international levels. Next, it characterizes the plantation forests sector and disputes over land associated with it. The fourth part discusses private strategies to address the vulnerability of the state in protecting rights. It is composed of a theoretical model and three case studies of Brazilian planted forest based companies. The theoretical model addresses the quality of institutions, the use of multiple protection mechanisms, the transaction cost for protection of attributes allocated in public domain and the importance of private mechanisms for the protection of property rights. The last part presents the results. The empirical study concludes that the quality of the institutions (i) supports the strategic choice and the organizational adaptation for the protection of property rights; (ii) determines the transaction cost of protecting property rights through formal mechanisms; and, especially, (iii) determines the importance of private mechanisms for the protection of land property rights.

This dissertation describes the development of CAMBIUM, an agent-based forest sector model for large-scale strategic analysis. This model is designed as a decision support tool for assessing the effect that changes in forest product demand and resource inventories can have on the structure and economic viability of the forest sector. CAMBIUM complements existing forest sector models by modeling aggregate product supply as an emergent property of individual companies’ production decisions and stand-level ecological processes. Modeling the forest products sector as a group of interacting autonomous agents makes it possible to introduce production capacity dynamics and the potential for mill insolvencies as factors in modeling the effects of market and forest inventory based disturbances. This thesis contains four main manuscripts. In the first manuscript I develop and test a dispersal algorithm that projects aggregated forest inventory information onto a lattice grid. This method can be used to generate ecologically and statistically consistent datasets where high-quality spatial inventory data is otherwise unavailable. The second manuscript utilizes this dataset in developing a provincial-level resource dynamics model for assessing the timber supply effects of introducing weevil-resistant spruce. This model employs a stand-level approach to simulating weevil infestation and associated merchantable volume losses. Provincial-level impacts are determined by simulating harvest activities over a 350 year time horizon. In the third manuscript I shift the focus to interactions between forest companies. I analyze the effects of strategic decisions on sector structure by developing CAMBIUM as an agent-based model of competition and industry structure evolution. The forest sector is modeled as a group of autonomous, interacting agents that evolve and compete within the limitations posed by resource inventories and product demand. In the final manuscript I calibrate CAMBIUM to current conditions in the British Columbia forest sector. Industry agents compete for roundwood inputs, as well as for profits in finished product markets for pulp, panel products, and lumber. To test the relevance and utility of this model, CAMBIUM is used to quantify the cumulative impacts of a market downturn for forest products and mountain pine beetle induced timber supply fluctuations on the structure of the forest sector.

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This dissertation describes the development of CAMBIUM, an agent-based forest sector model for large-scale strategic analysis. This model is designed as a decision support tool for assessing the effect that changes in forest product demand and resource inventories can have on the structure and economic viability of the forest sector. CAMBIUM complements existing forest sector models by modeling aggregate product supply as an emergent property of individual companies’ production decisions and stand-level ecological processes. Modeling the forest products sector as a group of interacting autonomous agents makes it possible to introduce production capacity dynamics and the potential for mill insolvencies as factors in modeling the effects of market and forest inventory based disturbances. This thesis contains four main manuscripts. In the first manuscript I develop and test a dispersal algorithm that projects aggregated forest inventory information onto a lattice grid. This method can be used to generate ecologically and statistically consistent datasets where high-quality spatial inventory data is otherwise unavailable. The second manuscript utilizes this dataset in developing a provincial-level resource dynamics model for assessing the timber supply effects of introducing weevil-resistant spruce. This model employs a stand-level approach to simulating weevil infestation and associated merchantable volume losses. Provincial-level impacts are determined by simulating harvest activities over a 350 year time horizon. In the third manuscript I shift the focus to interactions between forest companies. I analyze the effects of strategic decisions on sector structure by developing CAMBIUM as an agent-based model of competition and industry structure evolution. The forest sector is modeled as a group of autonomous, interacting agents that evolve and compete within the limitations posed by resource inventories and product demand. In the final manuscript I calibrate CAMBIUM to current conditions in the British Columbia forest sector. Industry agents compete for roundwood inputs, as well as for profits in finished product markets for pulp, panel products, and lumber. To test the relevance and utility of this model, CAMBIUM is used to quantify the cumulative impacts of a market downturn for forest products and mountain pine beetle induced timber supply fluctuations on the structure of the forest sector.

O momento histórico atual requer uma reflexão sobre alternativas para o desenvolvimento sustentável do setor florestal na Amazônia. É nesta perspectiva que se insere esta pesquisa, ao tratar do desenvolvimento sustentável por meio da concessão de florestas públicas. O estabelecimento de estratégias de desenvolvimento sustentável envolve uma mudança conceitual na acepção dos empreendimentos, isto é, promover a eficiência da exploração dos recursos naturais, no caso, a da madeira, impedindo a degradação e devastação da floresta pela ocupação desordenada de atividades e, ao mesmo tempo, aumentando o crescimento econômico por meio de uma gestão sustentável, resultando assim na redução dos impactos ambientais, no aumento da renda e na melhoria da qualidade de vida das populações locais. O modelo de pesquisa bibliográfico, de caráter descritivo e método qualitativo apresentou-se como a melhor opção, ainda que o número de publicações e pesquisas sobre o assunto tem se apresentado restrito. Foram desenvolvidas algumas considerações acerca desse cenário econômico da Amazônia, seguida de uma reflexão sobre o setor madeireiro, abordando sua importância para a região e seus pólos de desenvolvimento. Por fim, uma análise sobre o princípio da concessão florestal como alternativa de política pública para o incremento do setor florestal na Amazônia Brasileira completa o estudo. O assunto, objeto de estudo, reflete a preocupação em oferecer contribuições às necessidades postas pela realidade contemporânea da Amazônia, na possibilidade de construção de alternativas adequadas ao seu desenvolvimento sustentável. / The current historical moment requires a reflection of alternatives for the sustainable development of forestry sector in the Amazon. It is in this perspective that this research comes to dealing with sustainable development through the award of public forests. The establishment of strategies for sustainable development involves a conceptual change in the meaning of business, promoting the efficiency of exploration of natural resources, in case of wood, preventing the degradation and devastation of forests by the disorderly occupation of activities, and at the same time, increasing economic growth through sustainable management, resulting in the reduction of environmental impacts, increased income and improved quality of life of local people. The model of research is the bibliography, with descriptive nature and qualitative methodology been presented as the best option, although the number of publications and researches about the subject has been restricted. Were developed some considerations about the economic environment of the Amazon, followed by a reflection on the timber industry, addressing its importance for the area and its centers of development. Finally, an analysis about the principle of award forestry as an alternative to public policy to increase the forestry sector in the Brazilian Amazon complete the study. The subject, object of study, reflects the concern to provide contributions to the needs posed by the contemporary reality of the Amazon, in the possibility of building suitable alternatives to their sustainable development.

O momento histórico atual requer uma reflexão sobre alternativas para o desenvolvimento sustentável do setor florestal na Amazônia. É nesta perspectiva que se insere esta pesquisa, ao tratar do desenvolvimento sustentável por meio da concessão de florestas públicas. O estabelecimento de estratégias de desenvolvimento sustentável envolve uma mudança conceitual na acepção dos empreendimentos, isto é, promover a eficiência da exploração dos recursos naturais, no caso, a da madeira, impedindo a degradação e devastação da floresta pela ocupação desordenada de atividades e, ao mesmo tempo, aumentando o crescimento econômico por meio de uma gestão sustentável, resultando assim na redução dos impactos ambientais, no aumento da renda e na melhoria da qualidade de vida das populações locais. O modelo de pesquisa bibliográfico, de caráter descritivo e método qualitativo apresentou-se como a melhor opção, ainda que o número de publicações e pesquisas sobre o assunto tem se apresentado restrito. Foram desenvolvidas algumas considerações acerca desse cenário econômico da Amazônia, seguida de uma reflexão sobre o setor madeireiro, abordando sua importância para a região e seus pólos de desenvolvimento. Por fim, uma análise sobre o princípio da concessão florestal como alternativa de política pública para o incremento do setor florestal na Amazônia Brasileira completa o estudo. O assunto, objeto de estudo, reflete a preocupação em oferecer contribuições às necessidades postas pela realidade contemporânea da Amazônia, na possibilidade de construção de alternativas adequadas ao seu desenvolvimento sustentável. / The current historical moment requires a reflection of alternatives for the sustainable development of forestry sector in the Amazon. It is in this perspective that this research comes to dealing with sustainable development through the award of public forests. The establishment of strategies for sustainable development involves a conceptual change in the meaning of business, promoting the efficiency of exploration of natural resources, in case of wood, preventing the degradation and devastation of forests by the disorderly occupation of activities, and at the same time, increasing economic growth through sustainable management, resulting in the reduction of environmental impacts, increased income and improved quality of life of local people. The model of research is the bibliography, with descriptive nature and qualitative methodology been presented as the best option, although the number of publications and researches about the subject has been restricted. Were developed some considerations about the economic environment of the Amazon, followed by a reflection on the timber industry, addressing its importance for the area and its centers of development. Finally, an analysis about the principle of award forestry as an alternative to public policy to increase the forestry sector in the Brazilian Amazon complete the study. The subject, object of study, reflects the concern to provide contributions to the needs posed by the contemporary reality of the Amazon, in the possibility of building suitable alternatives to their sustainable development.

O momento histórico atual requer uma reflexão sobre alternativas para o desenvolvimento sustentável do setor florestal na Amazônia. É nesta perspectiva que se insere esta pesquisa, ao tratar do desenvolvimento sustentável por meio da concessão de florestas públicas. O estabelecimento de estratégias de desenvolvimento sustentável envolve uma mudança conceitual na acepção dos empreendimentos, isto é, promover a eficiência da exploração dos recursos naturais, no caso, a da madeira, impedindo a degradação e devastação da floresta pela ocupação desordenada de atividades e, ao mesmo tempo, aumentando o crescimento econômico por meio de uma gestão sustentável, resultando assim na redução dos impactos ambientais, no aumento da renda e na melhoria da qualidade de vida das populações locais. O modelo de pesquisa bibliográfico, de caráter descritivo e método qualitativo apresentou-se como a melhor opção, ainda que o número de publicações e pesquisas sobre o assunto tem se apresentado restrito. Foram desenvolvidas algumas considerações acerca desse cenário econômico da Amazônia, seguida de uma reflexão sobre o setor madeireiro, abordando sua importância para a região e seus pólos de desenvolvimento. Por fim, uma análise sobre o princípio da concessão florestal como alternativa de política pública para o incremento do setor florestal na Amazônia Brasileira completa o estudo. O assunto, objeto de estudo, reflete a preocupação em oferecer contribuições às necessidades postas pela realidade contemporânea da Amazônia, na possibilidade de construção de alternativas adequadas ao seu desenvolvimento sustentável. / The current historical moment requires a reflection of alternatives for the sustainable development of forestry sector in the Amazon. It is in this perspective that this research comes to dealing with sustainable development through the award of public forests. The establishment of strategies for sustainable development involves a conceptual change in the meaning of business, promoting the efficiency of exploration of natural resources, in case of wood, preventing the degradation and devastation of forests by the disorderly occupation of activities, and at the same time, increasing economic growth through sustainable management, resulting in the reduction of environmental impacts, increased income and improved quality of life of local people. The model of research is the bibliography, with descriptive nature and qualitative methodology been presented as the best option, although the number of publications and researches about the subject has been restricted. Were developed some considerations about the economic environment of the Amazon, followed by a reflection on the timber industry, addressing its importance for the area and its centers of development. Finally, an analysis about the principle of award forestry as an alternative to public policy to increase the forestry sector in the Brazilian Amazon complete the study. The subject, object of study, reflects the concern to provide contributions to the needs posed by the contemporary reality of the Amazon, in the possibility of building suitable alternatives to their sustainable development.

This dissertation describes the development of CAMBIUM, an agent-based forest sector model for large-scale strategic analysis. This model is designed as a decision support tool for assessing the effect that changes in forest product demand and resource inventories can have on the structure and economic viability of the forest sector. CAMBIUM complements existing forest sector models by modeling aggregate product supply as an emergent property of individual companies’ production decisions and stand-level ecological processes. Modeling the forest products sector as a group of interacting autonomous agents makes it possible to introduce production capacity dynamics and the potential for mill insolvencies as factors in modeling the effects of market and forest inventory based disturbances. This thesis contains four main manuscripts. In the first manuscript I develop and test a dispersal algorithm that projects aggregated forest inventory information onto a lattice grid. This method can be used to generate ecologically and statistically consistent datasets where high-quality spatial inventory data is otherwise unavailable. The second manuscript utilizes this dataset in developing a provincial-level resource dynamics model for assessing the timber supply effects of introducing weevil-resistant spruce. This model employs a stand-level approach to simulating weevil infestation and associated merchantable volume losses. Provincial-level impacts are determined by simulating harvest activities over a 350 year time horizon. In the third manuscript I shift the focus to interactions between forest companies. I analyze the effects of strategic decisions on sector structure by developing CAMBIUM as an agent-based model of competition and industry structure evolution. The forest sector is modeled as a group of autonomous, interacting agents that evolve and compete within the limitations posed by resource inventories and product demand. In the final manuscript I calibrate CAMBIUM to current conditions in the British Columbia forest sector. Industry agents compete for roundwood inputs, as well as for profits in finished product markets for pulp, panel products, and lumber. To test the relevance and utility of this model, CAMBIUM is used to quantify the cumulative impacts of a market downturn for forest products and mountain pine beetle induced timber supply fluctuations on the structure of the forest sector. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

De pågående klimatförändringarna påverkar skogen både som ekosystem och gagnvirkesproducent och för att skogen ska fortsätta producera nödvändiga ekosystemtjänster behöver brukandet av skogen anpassas på olika sätt. Studiens syfte var att undersöka om den svenska skogsbranschen har klimatanpassning som en aktiv del av sin skogsbruksplanläggning, vilket skedde genom att tillfråga 31 aktörer. Resultatet visade att bara en av de tillfrågade aktörerna genomförde anpassningar. Undersökningen visade också att skogsbruksplanen och skogsbruksplanläggningen kommer att förändras men att branschen inväntar bland annat nya EU-direktiv. Slutsatsen blev att den svenska skogsbranschen inte genomför skoglig klimatanpassning i skogsbruksplansläggningen, vilket medför en uppenbar risk att behövlig skoglig klimatanpassning uteblir.

This thesis consists of four papers: two of them deal with the effects on the forest sector of an increase in the demand for forest fuels, and two of them concern the relation between economic growth and pollution. Paper [I] is a first, preliminary study of the potential effects on the Swedish forest sector of a continuing rise in the use of forest resources as a fuel in energy generation. Sweden has made a commitment that the energy system should be sustainable, i.e., it should be based on renewable resources. However, an increasing use of the forest resources as an energy input could have effects outside the energy sector. We consider this in a static model by estimating a system of demand and supply equations for the four main actors on the Swedish roundwood market; forestry, sawmills, pulpmills and the energy sector. We then calculate the industries' short run supply and demand elasticities. Paper [II], is a development of the former paper. In this paper, we estimate the dynamic effects on the forest sector of an increased demand for forest fuels. This is done by developing a partial adjustment model of the forest sector that enables short, intermediate, and long run price elasticities to be estimated. It is relevant to study the effects of increased demand for forest fuels as the Swedish government has committed to an energy policy that is likely to further increase the use of renewable resources in the Swedish energy system. Four subsectors are included in the model: forestry, sawmills, pulpmills and the energy industry. The results show that the short run elasticities are fairly consistent with earlier studies and that sluggish adjustment in the capital stock is important in determining the intermediate and long run responses. Simulation shows that an increase in the demand for forest fuels has a positive effect on the equilibrium price of all three types of wood, and a negative effect on the equilibrium quantities of sawtimber and pulpwood. In paper [III] a Shephard distance function approach is used to estimate time series of shadow prices for Swedish emissions of CO2, SO2, and VOC for the period 1918 - 1994. The shadow prices are in a next step regressed on GDP per capita. The objective of the study is closely linked to hypothesis of environmental Kuznets curves. We conclude that the time series of the shadow prices from this approach can not be used to explain the EKCs found for Swedish emissions. In paper [IV], we calculate time series of shadow prices for Swedish emissions of CO2, SO2, and VOC for the period 1918 - 1994. The shadow prices are in a next step related to income, to explain the EKCs previously found for Swedish data on the three emissions. Newly constructed historical emission time series enable studying a single country's emission paths through increasing levels of economic activity. A directional distance function approach is used to estimate the industry's production process in order to calculate the opportunity costs of a reduction in the emissions. The time series of the shadow prices show support for EKCs for the Swedish industry.