Les langages synchrones ont été fondés pour modéliser et implémenter les systèmes réactifs temps-réels critiques. Avec la complexité toujours croissante des systèmes contrôlés, la vitesse d'exécution devient un critère important. Nous sommes donc à la recherche d'une exécution parallèle, combinant efficacité et sûreté.Les langages synchrones ont toujours intégré la notion de parallélisme, mais ce, pour l'expressivité de la modélisation. Leurs compilations visent principalement les circuits ou la génération de code séquentiel. Tous ont une sémantique formelle, qui rend possible la distribution correcte du code. Mais la préservation de cette sémantique peut être un obstacle à l'efficacité du code généré, particulièrement s'il est nécessaire de préserver une notion d'instant global au système.Le modèle sémantique qui nous intéresse est celui des réseaux de Kahn. Ces réseaux modélisent des calculateurs distribués, communiquant au travers de files de taille non bornée. Dans ce cadre, la distribution ne demande aucune communication ni synchronisation supplémentaire. En considérant l'histoire des files de communication, la sémantique de Kahn permet de s'abstraire de l'exécution effective, tout en garantissant le déterminisme du calcul. Pour cela, chaque nœud du réseau doit avoir une sémantique fonctionnelle continue.Le langage que nous développons est Heptagon, un langage synchrone fonctionnel du premier ordre, déscendant de Lustre. Son compilateur est un prototype universitaire, apparenté à l'outil industriel Scade. Grâce à sa sémantique de Kahn, la distribution d'un programme Heptagon ne pose pas de question, son efficacité beaucoup plus.L'efficacité requiert de minimiser les synchronisations. Cela revêt deux aspects non indépendants. Avoir un découplage suffisant des calculs : il y a des délais dans les dépendances entre calculs. Avoir une granularité importante des calculs : un fort ratio temps de calcul sur fréquence de communication. Or la sémantique synchrone et les horloges d'un programme Heptagon reflètent exactement l'inverse. Elles permettent au programmeur de se contenter d'un découplage d'un instant et à chaque instant, au maximum une valeur est calculée. De plus, les instants sont typiquement courts, pour assurer que le système réagit rapidement.Des précédents travaux sur le sujet, nous tirons deux constats.Le premier est que nous souhaitons le contrôle du parallélisme par le programmeur, directement dans le code source. Il doit pouvoir maîtriser à quels instants il y a communication ou synchronisation. La solution que nous proposons dans ce manuscrit est l'utilisation des futures dans Heptagon. Ils fournissent ce pouvoir au programmeur, tout en restant des annotations qui peuvent être supprimées sans changer la sémantique dénotationnelle du programme.Le deuxième constat est que la question de la granularité des calculs est une question profonde, touchant en particulier aux questions de dépendance de données, de choix des horloges et de compilation modulaire. Heptagon, comme ses parents, restreint les réseaux de Kahn qui peuvent être écrits, de telle sorte que ces trois questions se traitent séparément. Pour mieux comprendre le lien entre ces éléments, nous revenons aux réseaux de Kahn. Notre principal résultat est la définition de la sous-classe des réseaux ordonnés réactifs. Ceux-ci sont les seuls pour lesquels nous pouvons décrire modulairement le comportement avec des horloges, sans restreindre les contextes d'appels. Ces réseaux ont une signature d'horloge en forme normale, qui maximise la granularité. Pour l'exprimer, nous introduisons les horloges entières, décrivant la communication de plusieurs valeurs en un seul instant. Nous appliquons ensuite nos résultats pour voir sous un nouveau jour Heptagon, Signal, les politiques des objets de Lucid Synchrone, mais aussi proposer une analyse pleinement modulaire de Lucy-n langage synchrone le plus fidèle aux réseaux de Kahn. / Synchronous languages are used to program critical reactive systems. Today, systems require to find a way to execute them safely and in parallel. Parallelism has always been part of synchronous langages, but for modeling purpose. Their formal semantics allow to distribute them, but preserving the semantics may be ressource costly and prevent good parallel execution.The Kahn networks model is of great interest. It models distributed computers, communicating through unbounded FIFOs, ensuring that the computed values are deterministic, without any need of added synchronization.We develop the langage Heptagon, a first order functional synchronous son of Lustre.The compiler is an academic prototype of the industrial tool Scade. Thanks to its Kahn semantics, it can be distributed. In order to be efficient, one need to maximize the decoupling of computations and maximize the computation granularity. However, synchronous langages allow for very tight computation coupling and usually require thin computation granularity to ensure reactivity of the system.We opt for two research directions. The first one is to give the control of the execution parallelism to the programer. To this mean, we add futures to the source langage Heptagon. They provide control over starting and end of parallel computations, while preserving the functional semantics. Moreover, we provide a compilation for embedded systems, using statically allocated memory. The second one is to study Kahn synchronous semantics to understand data dependencies and maximize granularity of the computations. This touches deeply to the synchronous languages, mixing the usually separated questions of causality and clock calculus. We define the class of reactive ordered Kahn networks. They are the one which may be modularly compiled and whose behavior may be expressed with a clock signature. Moreover, we show that their is a normal form for this signature, maximizing the granularity of the network. To express it, we extend clocks to integer clocks. Then we come back to the synchronous languages we know to understand how to use it. The result is fully used and explained on Lucy-n, the synchronous language closest to Kahn networks.

No description available.

This thesis analyses the impact of announcements of macroeconomic indicators in United States on price development of the VIX Futures, S&P500 Futures and EUR/USD FX rate. Theoretical part contains construction and description of individual markets. Empirical part investigates the reaction of market prices after 1, 10 and 30 minutes after announcement of an individual indicator value on a market surprise demonstrated as a difference between reported value and analysts' expectations. We tried to find a systematic reaction of market participants and the pace of absorption of new information into the market price. There have been found minimum of situations, where we explained the market move as a linear combination of market surprise. However, there was a several cases, where the market did not adjust to announced information quickly and was inefficient in a short period. In the second part of empirical research we tested all significant models on an out-sample data. The goal was to determine whether the market inefficiencies persisted and stable profit could be achieved. We analysed the brutto performance, then netto performance including all transaction costs. Finally, we defined a simple trading rules with a purpose of profit stabilization and lowering the riskiness of trades. For VIX Futures and EUR/USD markets we achieved a low loss, respectively negligible profit. For S&P 500 Futures we obtained a profit strategies for all selected indicators, total profit was high with a very low volatility of invested capital.

Derivatives market is one of the fastest growing parts of the financial market. It was reflected in a sharp increase in trading volumes over the last decade, growth in number of participants and the development of new products. These products, which were devoloped in 80's and 90's sometimes refer to "new derivatives products". The aim of this diploma thesis is analyze selected new derivatives products, concretely barrier options and electricity futures.

Three petroleum futures contracts are examined over a ten-year period from 1986 to 1996. Intertemporal changes in futures prices and the net open interest positions of three trader types are compared to determine what, if any, market timing ability the traders have. Seasonal variation is considered and a simple trading rule is adopted to determine the dollar-return potential for market participation and shed light on issues of market efficiency.

Face aux enjeux pour le futur posés par l’ampleur des dérèglements écologiques (changement climatique, extinction des espèces, pressions sur les ressources en eau…), les discours sur l’avenir se multiplient, qu’ils promettent une résolution des problèmes par la technologie, des modèles de société utopiques ou considèrent l’effondrement comme inéluctable. Ces discours sur l’avenir ont-ils une influence sur les situations concrètes de gestion de l’environnement ? Peuvent-ils soutenir ou contraindre l’action des acteurs cherchant à améliorer l’état des écosystèmes ? Cette thèse traite ces questions en s’intéressant aux démarches prospectives et à leur contribution à des stratégies d’acteurs défendant une prise en charge efficace des enjeux environnementaux. Grâce à huit études de cas, elle analyse comment des concepteurs d’interventions prospectives conçoivent ces démarches pour qu’elles fournissent des prises pour l’action d’acteurs d’environnement (agences de l’eau, gestionnaires d’espaces protégés, associations…). Les démarches prospectives influencent la « fabrique des futurs », c’est-à-dire la compétition entre différentes représentations de l’avenir des systèmes sociotechniques qui impose ou exclut certaines trajectoires de changement. Faire exister dans la fabrique des futurs des discours sur l’avenir crédibilisant une transformation de ces systèmes favorable aux enjeux écologiques fournit une ressource susceptible de renforcer le pouvoir d’acteurs d’environnement. Les concepteurs de prospectives travaillent à des reconnexions entre les discours sur l’avenir produits lors de leurs démarches et les processus de gestion de l’environnement. Ces reconnexions peuvent fournir, non sans difficultés, des prises sur les jeux d’acteurs, l’élaboration d’instruments de gestion de l’environnement et le fonctionnement des organisations impliquées. La thèse propose un cadre d’analyse pour accompagner la réflexion des concepteurs prospectifs dans la conception et la mise en œuvre de leurs démarches. Plus largement, elle ouvre des pistes de réflexion sur les enjeux stratégiques de la production de discours sur l’avenir pour participer aux transitions des systèmes sociotechniques. / Faced by challenges for the future such as that posed by the extent of ecological disruption (climate change, species extinction, pressure on water resource), the narratives regarding the future are ever multiplying, whether promising solutions via technology, models of a utopian society, or considering collapse as inevitable. Do said narratives play a part in the practical implementation of environmental management and are they supporting or restraining the action of those seeking to improve the state of ecosystems? This thesis addresses these issues by investigating the contribution of futures studies to the strategies of stakeholders acting for an effective management of environmental issues. Through eight case studies, the research work analyses how designers build futures studies so that they can provide opportunities for action to environmental actors (i.e. water agencies, protected areas managers, NGOs etc.). Futures studies influence the “manufacture of futures”, that is, the competition between various future depictions of sociotechnical systems which results in imposing or excluding certain pathways of change. By making visible, in the manufacture of futures, narratives which lend credibility to transformations of socioecological systems in favour of ecological issues, futures studies may empower environmental actors. Futures studies designers connect the results of their interventions with processes in environmental management situations. These connections can provide, not without difficulty, opportunities to influence power relationships, the negotiation of environmental management actions, and the internal processes of organisations involved. This thesis offers an analytical framework to support the strategic thinking of futures studies designers in the design and implementation of their interventions. Furthermore, it opens up new avenues on the strategic issues of producing narratives to support the transitions of sociotechnical systems.

A major concern for investors in residential real estate throughout the United States is the decline in value of residential real estate. The high demand for residential real estate bas increased prices significantly. Many analysts believe that the recent price increases have been fueled by speculation and there is currently potential for a decline in prices. This thesis studies various methods by which investors might potentially hedge the decline in residential real estate values that many analysts predict will occur. Three possible methods that could provide investors with a cost-effective way to hedge a decline in residential real estate values are studied in this thesis. These methods are taking a short position in a portfolio of stocks from the PHLX Housing Index, buying Morgan Stanley I 00% Bear Capital Protected Notes, and selling a Hedgelet portfolio, which consists of binary options offered by Hedgestreet. Throughout the analysis of the hedging strategies, the objective was to determine which hedging strategy would provide the best possible hedge at the lowest possible cost to the investor. I concluded that none of the three hedging strategies would provide a cost-effective hedge for the investor.

The creation of futures scenarios is a tool to addresschallenges towards sustainability in planning and thebuilt environment. Scenarios in the project BeyondGDP growth explore futures where priority is givento social and environmental aspects and economicgrowth is regarded as uncertain. When futures areused as an input to planning, there has to be anawareness of the possible consequences of those.Sustainability assessment for futures scenarios aimsto give a comprehensive assessment of how differentscenarios can affect relevant aspects. This thesis gives an overview of current methods forsustainability assessment of futures scenarios. It alsoproposes improvements to one of them and tests iton the Beyond GDP growth scenarios. SAFS (SustainabilityAssessment Framework for Scenarios) isthe method selected. SAFS considers environmentaland social aspects providing qualitative results anduses consumption perspective and life cycle approach. Improvements to SAFS are proposed in two directions.First, the Doughnut developed by Raworth(2012) is integrated in the method. It gives a graphicrepresentation, putting each aspect in context withthe others and facilitate the communication of theassessment results. Second, an alternative approachis suggested to evaluate the consequences of environmentaldeprivation on social conditions. Thisalternative approach can also help communicateuncertainties. / Att skapa framtidsscenarier är ett verktyg för attadressera utmaningar relaterade till hållbarhet inomsamhällsplanering och samhällsbyggnad. ProjektetBortom BNP-tillväxt utforskar i ett antal scenarierolika framtider där sociala och miljömässiga aspekterfår prioritet och ekonomisk tillväxt betraktas somosäker. När framtidsscenarier används som inputi samhällsplanering behöver det finnas en medvetenhetom dessa framtiders möjliga konsekvenser. Hållbarhetsbedömning av framtida scenarier utgören omfattande utvärdering av hur olika scenarier kanförväntas påverka relevanta aspekter. Den här uppsatsen ger en översikt över befintligametoder för hållbarhetsbedömning av framtidsscenarier,den applicerar en av dessa metoder - SAFS(Sustainability Assessment Framework for Scenarios) -på scenarierna inom Bortom BNP-tillväxt och föreslårförbättringar till metoden. SAFS väljs därför att densom metod tar hänsyn till såväl miljö- som socialaaspekter, ger kvalitativa resultat och utvärderar scenariernaur ett konsumtions- och livscykelperspektiv. Två förbättringar av SAFS föreslås. Den ena är attintegrera Raworths “Doughnut” (2012) eftersomden erbjuder ett sätt att grafiskt representera allautvärderade aspekter tillsammans och underlättaratt kommunicera resultatet från bedömningen. Denandra förbättringen innebär ett annat angreppssättför att utvärdera konsekvenserna av miljöförstöringför sociala aspekter. Det föreslagna angreppssättetkan även underlätta att kommunicera metodens inneboendeosäkerheter gällande resultaten. / Beyond GDP growth

This study explores how futures studies could engage with critical feminist perspectives in an intrinsic manner and what feminist futures might mean. The study brings attention to the less discussed subject of epistemological basis in futures studies. Literature study and semi-structured interviews with practitioners and researchers working with feminist approaches in the fields related to futures development was deployed. I’ve analyzed Wendell Bell’s discussion on epistemological foundation of futures studies from feminist epistemological perspective, and have suggested the potential of feminist epistemology of situated knowledges and partial objectivity for futures studies. Based on the findings from the semi-structured interviews, an alternative feminist scenario set in Swedish society in the year of 2050 in the format of a fiction is presented with the aim to provide a detailed and situated narrative of political and daily lives in feminist futures. The feminist futures scenario should not be understood as the singular feminist future suggested for implementation. The intention is to demonstrate how the visionary dimensions of feminist studies could be articulated in various forms of futures studies, and to open up space for rich debates on envisioning feminist futures. / Denna studie utforskar hur framtidsstudier skulle kunna anta ett kritiskt feministiskt perspektiv på ett djuplodande sätt och vad feministiska framtider skulle kunna innebära. Litteraturstudier och semistrukturerade intervjuer med utövare och forskare som arbetar med feministiska tillvägagångssätt inom fält relaterade till framtidsutveckling har genomförts. Jag har analyserat Wendell Bells diskussion om den epistemologiska grunden för framtidsstudier utifrån ett feministiskt epistemologiskt perspektiv, och har föreslagit feministisk epistemologi om situerad kunskap och partiell objektivitet som potentiell epistemologi för framtidsstudier. Utifrån fynden i de semistrukturerade intervjuerna presenteras ett alternativt feministiskt scenario för ett svenskt samhälle år 2050 i ett fiktivt format med syftet att ge ett detaljerat och situerat narrativ om det politiska och dagliga livet inom feministiska framtider. Det feministiska framtidsscenariot bör inte läsas som den enda feministiska framtiden avsedd för implementering. Avsikten är att visa hur feministiska studiers visionära dimensioner kan uttryckas på olika sätt i framtidsstudier och ge utrymme för en bred debatt om hur feministiska framtider kan gestaltas.

This study investigates the simultaneous use of interest rate and currency futures markets to hedge the exchange and interest rate risks faced by banks. Banks in this study accept short-term variable rate deposits, hold many different foreign currencies, and make long-term fixed rate loans. The expected utility maximization model shows that in a two-period framework the bank’s optimal simultaneous hedge ratios for risks associated with exchange rate, interest rate, and anticipatory positions are given by the coefficients of the theoretical multivariate multiple regression of returns from trading the (spot) instruments being hedged on those from trading the futures contracts. Unlike previous studies, capital adequacy is shown in this study to be an important factor determining the bank’s optimal futures position. The bank’s decisions on loan extensions and interest rate futures positions are shown to be affected by the existence of foreign exchange operations and the availability of foreign currency futures contracts. It is also shown that the (optimal) hedging decisions anticipated for later time periods influence current decisions, which implies that hedge positions are intertemporally dependent. Based on the theoretical analyses, five testable hypotheses are derived: (i) Capital adequacy irrelevance hypothesis, (ii) Naive-single market hypothesis, (iii) Own market hypothesis, (iv) Intertemporal position irrelevance hypothesis, and (v) International banking hypothesis. These hypotheses are tested using the generalized method of moments procedure. The empirical results show that (a) capital adequacy is highly relevant for the bank’s decision on optimal futures positions, (b) it is not optimal for the bank to take a naive position in the corresponding futures contracts to hedge a specific type of spot position, (c) cross-hedging is necessary to increase hedging performance, (d) the bank’s anticipated positions in foreign currency spot and futures contracts next period affect the current decisions on optimal spot and futures positions, and (e) international banking activity, as it is interrelated with domestic and international credit markets, must be considered when the bank makes decisions on optimal futures positions. Finally, the optimal hedge ratio estimates demonstrate strong evidence that banks should use the futures markets to a substantially greater extent for hedging overall market risk compared to when they hedge each component of market risk separately. / Ph. D.