Doctor of Philosophy(PhD) / This dissertation examines the implicit cost of trading in money and futures markets. The research provides empirical evidence on several issues of significance to the growing number of institutional investors in these markets. I address four unique research questions with scarce or conflicting prior research findings. The empirical evidence presented in this dissertation can be used by researchers, investors, and regulators to understand and manage the cost of trading in money and futures markets. The first issue examined in this dissertation is the price impact of block trades in futures markets. The study examines 14 stock index futures contracts in 11 different international markets and finds that on balance, part of the initial price movement associated with a block trade is temporary. This suggests block trades in futures markets incur a liquidity premium. The study also finds strong evidence that large buyer- and seller-initiated trades have permanent effects on prices, implying they convey information. The study concludes, similar to research based on equity markets, that traders in futures markets are informed. The second issue examined is an inconsistency in the literature regarding institutional transactions in futures markets. One strand of the literature documents that single trades in futures markets contain information, while another strand finds trade packages in futures markets do not contain information. The second study in this dissertation controls for methodological and sample differences in examining the price impact of individual trades and trade packages, and finds little evidence that transactions in futures markets contain information. The third issue examined in this dissertation is the anomalous negative relation between execution costs and trade size in opaque markets. Prior literature attributes this relation to information asymmetry and broker-client relationships; however, previous empirical studies are unable to analyse these contributing factors individually. The study addresses this issue by empirically examining the effect of each factor on execution costs in Australian money markets. Results imply that a trader’s ex ante price information and the relationship a trader has with their broker are both significant determinants of a trader’s execution costs in an opaque market; however, traders who establish a strong relationship with their broker will achieve a greater reduction in execution costs than traders with ex ante price information. The study also finds evidence that trade size has little explanatory power after controlling for a trader’s ex ante price information and broker-client relationships. There is a scarcity of empirical research examining the carbon market – a new and rapidly growing financial market developed to support the trading of carbon emissions. The fourth issue examined in this dissertation is the cost of trading in the largest and most liquid carbon market: the European carbon futures market. Results from prior studies of transaction costs are not necessarily applicable to carbon futures, given the unique features of carbon futures contracts and the immaturity of the carbon market. This study is of interest as it represents the first empirical analysis of liquidity and transaction costs in the carbon futures market. Results from the study imply a substantial increase in liquidity and subsequent reduction in transaction costs as carbon markets mature through time. Unlike traditional futures contracts, where liquidity clusters in quarterly expiry month contracts (March, June, September, December), liquidity in the carbon futures market is concentrated in December expiry month contracts to coincide with annual emissions audits. Further, the study also provides evidence of information asymmetry in carbon futures markets and a permanent price adjustment following medium and large trades.

Doctor of Philosophy(PhD) / This dissertation examines the implicit cost of trading in money and futures markets. The research provides empirical evidence on several issues of significance to the growing number of institutional investors in these markets. I address four unique research questions with scarce or conflicting prior research findings. The empirical evidence presented in this dissertation can be used by researchers, investors, and regulators to understand and manage the cost of trading in money and futures markets. The first issue examined in this dissertation is the price impact of block trades in futures markets. The study examines 14 stock index futures contracts in 11 different international markets and finds that on balance, part of the initial price movement associated with a block trade is temporary. This suggests block trades in futures markets incur a liquidity premium. The study also finds strong evidence that large buyer- and seller-initiated trades have permanent effects on prices, implying they convey information. The study concludes, similar to research based on equity markets, that traders in futures markets are informed. The second issue examined is an inconsistency in the literature regarding institutional transactions in futures markets. One strand of the literature documents that single trades in futures markets contain information, while another strand finds trade packages in futures markets do not contain information. The second study in this dissertation controls for methodological and sample differences in examining the price impact of individual trades and trade packages, and finds little evidence that transactions in futures markets contain information. The third issue examined in this dissertation is the anomalous negative relation between execution costs and trade size in opaque markets. Prior literature attributes this relation to information asymmetry and broker-client relationships; however, previous empirical studies are unable to analyse these contributing factors individually. The study addresses this issue by empirically examining the effect of each factor on execution costs in Australian money markets. Results imply that a trader’s ex ante price information and the relationship a trader has with their broker are both significant determinants of a trader’s execution costs in an opaque market; however, traders who establish a strong relationship with their broker will achieve a greater reduction in execution costs than traders with ex ante price information. The study also finds evidence that trade size has little explanatory power after controlling for a trader’s ex ante price information and broker-client relationships. There is a scarcity of empirical research examining the carbon market – a new and rapidly growing financial market developed to support the trading of carbon emissions. The fourth issue examined in this dissertation is the cost of trading in the largest and most liquid carbon market: the European carbon futures market. Results from prior studies of transaction costs are not necessarily applicable to carbon futures, given the unique features of carbon futures contracts and the immaturity of the carbon market. This study is of interest as it represents the first empirical analysis of liquidity and transaction costs in the carbon futures market. Results from the study imply a substantial increase in liquidity and subsequent reduction in transaction costs as carbon markets mature through time. Unlike traditional futures contracts, where liquidity clusters in quarterly expiry month contracts (March, June, September, December), liquidity in the carbon futures market is concentrated in December expiry month contracts to coincide with annual emissions audits. Further, the study also provides evidence of information asymmetry in carbon futures markets and a permanent price adjustment following medium and large trades.

No description available.

No description available.

In 1921, 1924 and 1929-1934, markets for the future delivery of wheat went through periods of extreme volatility and/or significant depression, and in all three cases there were significant and long-lasting changes to both the institutional and regulatory framework of these Chicago-dominated grain markets. There was no real change after these key reforms until 1974, while indeed much of the original regulatory and market innovation remains. The result of the severe depression of 1921 was the Futures Trading Act of 1921. In 1924-25, the so-called ‘Cutten corner’ market turmoil was followed by three key institutional innovations brought about in 1926 by US federal government coercion of the grain futures trading industry in collusion with industry leaders. The Great Depression gave birth to the 1936 Commodity Exchange Act. This Act was based on research done by the government and/or with government-mandated evidence that essentially saw the small grain gambler as needing protection from the grain futures industry, and was pushed through by a coalition of farmers’ organisations and the agency responsible for the 1922 Act’s administration. The government demanded information that was begrudgingly provided, and the studies of this data formed the basis of a political and intellectual justification of the usefulness of futures markets to the marketing of farm products that influenced the Act of 1936 and – more importantly - continues to today. My key thesis is that government worked closely with the futures industry to the extent that the agency was captured by special interests for much of the interwar period, and I claim that government intervention was responsible for the essential changes that assured the dominance of futures markets, with the Chicago Board of Trade as their hub. The lasting institutions created in the 1920s and 1930s continue to immensely influence the financial markets of today, including being incorporated into the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. My study differs from the accepted account that sees federal regulation as an irrational ‘populist’ attempt at controlling or even banning the markets, with the new institutions developed during the interwar period as the result of effective industry self-regulation in spite of state interference. The findings are based on a theory-driven reading of archives of the Chicago Board of Trade, its regulator the Grain Futures Administration, and the other key government agencies engaging with the grain trade, the USDA, the Federal Farm Board and the Federal Trade Commission. The approach here differs from the accepted accounts in that it is based mostly on my archival work, including the newly reorganised (in 2014) Chicago Board of Trade archive, rather than on public sources such as Congressional hearings and newspaper stories.

No description available.

O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar as relações entre a atividade de negócios, representada pelas variáveis de contratos em aberto e volume negociado, o conteúdo informacional dos diferentes grupos de participantes, categorizados pela bolsa brasileira, e a volatilidade diária e intradiária dos preços futuros para boi gordo, café arábica e milho, contratos agropecuários de maior liquidez na BMF&BOVESPA. O ferramental metodológico foi baseado nos trabalhos de Bessembiender e Seguin (1992), Daigler e Wiley (1999) e Wang (2002), amparados, majoritariamente, pela teoria de microestrutura de mercado e noise trading. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que existe relação entre contratos em aberto, volume negociado e volatilidade dos preços futuros. No caso de contratos em aberto, foi encontrada uma relação negativa (positiva) entre a série esperada (não esperada) e volatilidade, sendo que o impacto da série não esperada é superior, em magnitude, ao da série esperada. Para o volume negociado, em geral, há evidência de um efeito positivo do volume negociado (tanto esperado como não esperado) sobre a volatilidade, sendo que a série esperada apresentou maior impacto do que a série não esperada. Quanto ao conteúdo informacional dos participantes, no modelo com volatilidade diária, encontrou-se evidência de que choques de demanda de pessoa jurídica não financeira contribuiu para o aumento da variação dos preços futuros de boi gordo. No contrato de café arábica, o modelo sugere que choques de demanda de pessoa física influencia a volatilidade de forma positiva, enquanto que no contrato de milho, choques de demanda de todas as categorias de agentes, com exceção da pessoa jurídica não financeira, aparentemente atuam de forma a incrementar a volatilidade dos preços futuros. Desta forma, a separação da posição líquida não esperada e a avaliação do impacto positivo dos choques de demanda sobre a volatilidade sugerem que tais investidores são não informados. No âmbito da análise da volatilidade intradiária, os resultados obtidos são, majoritariamente, similares aos encontrados no modelo que analisa a volatilidade diária. Ademais, a regressão quantílica possibilitou o mapeamento completo dos impactos das variáveis analisadas, mostrando que há diferenças significativas em relação à influência das séries nos diferentes quantis da distribuição condicional da volatilidade, tanto diária quanto intradiária. / The objective of this study is to investigate the relationships between business activity, represented by the variables of open interest and trading volume, the information content of different groups of participants, categorized by the Brazilian exchange, and daily and intraday volatility of futures prices for live cattle, arabica coffee and corn, which are the Brazilian agricultural contracts that have greater liquidity. The methodological tool was based on the works of Bessembiender and Seguin (1992), Daigler and Wiley (1999) and Wang (2002), supported mostly by the market microstructure theory and noise trading. The results suggest that there is a relationship between open interest, trading volume and volatility of future prices. Particularly for open interest, is was found a negative relationship (positive) between the expected series (unexpected) and volatility, and the impact of unexpected series was superior in magnitude comparing to the expected series. For the traded volume, in general, there was evidence of a positive effect of trading volume (both expected and unexpected) on the volatility, and the expected series showed greater impact than the series unexpected. As for the informational content of the participants, considering the model that explains the daily volatility, is was found evidence that demand shocks non-financial corporation contributed to the increase in variation of live cattle futures prices. For the arabica coffee contract, the model suggests that demand shocks of individual influences positively the volatility. For the corn contract, demand shocks of all categories of participants, with the exception of non-financial corporation, apparently act in order to increase the volatility of future prices. Thus, the separation of the unexpected net position and the evaluation of the positive impact of demand shocks on volatility suggest that such investors are not informed. In examining the intraday volatility, the results obtained are mostly similar to those found in the model which analyzes the daily volatility. The quantile regression permitted the complete mapping of the impacts of the variables analyzed, showing that there are significant differences regarding the influence of the variables in the different quantiles of the conditional distribution of volatility, intraday as much daily.

This study gives an insight into the behaviour and performance of large speculators and large hedgers in 29 US futures markets. Using a trading determinant model and priced risk factors such as net positions and sentiment index, results suggest hedgers (speculators) exhibit significant positive feedback trading in 15 (7) markets. Information variables like the S&P500 index dividend yield, corporate yield spread and the three months treasury bill rate were mostly unimportant in large players’ trading decisions. Hedgers had better market timing abilities than speculators in judging the direction of the market in one month. The poor market timing abilities and poor significance of positive feedback results suggest higher trading frequency intervals for speculators. Hedging pressures, which measure the presence of risk premium in futures markets, were insignificant mostly in agricultural markets. As a robust test of hedging pressures, price pressure tests found risk premium to be still significant for silver, crude oil and live cattle. The positive feedback behaviour and negative market timing abilities suggest hedgers in heating oil and Japanese yen destabilize futures prices, and points to a need to check CFTC’s (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) position limits regulation in these markets. In fact, large hedgers in these two markets are more likely to be leading behaviour, in that they have more absolute net positions than speculators. Alternatively stated, positive feedback hedgers in these two markets are more likely to lead institutions and investors to buy (sell) overpriced (underpriced) contracts, eventually leading to divergence of prices away from fundamentals. / Atlhought hedgers in crude oil had significant positive feedback behaviour and negative market timing skills, they would not have much of a destabilizing effect over remaining players because the mean net positions of hedgers and speculators were not far apart. While the results are statistically significant, it is suggested these could be economically significant, in that there have been no regulation on position limits at all for hedgers compared to speculators who are imposed with strict limits from the CFTC. Further, mean equations were regressed against decomposed variables, to see how much of the futures returns are attributed to expected components of variables such as net positions, sentiment and information variables. While the expected components of variables are derived by ensuring there are enough ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) terms to make them statistically and economically reliable, the unexpected components of variables measure the residual on differences of the series from its mean. When decomposing net positions against returns, it was found expected net positions to be negatively related to hedgers’ returns in mostly agricultural markets. Speculators’ expected (unexpected) positions were less (more) significant in explaining actual returns, suggesting hedgers are more prone in setting an expected net position at the start of the trading month to determine actual returns rather than readjusting their net positions frequently all throughout the remaining days of the month. While it important to see how futures returns are determined by expected and unexpected values, it is also essential to see how volatility is affected as well. / In an attempt to cover three broad types of volatility measures, idiosyncratic volatility, GARCH based volatility (variance based), and PARCH based volatility (standard deviation) are used. Net positions of hedgers (expected and unexpected) tend to have less effect on idiosyncratic volatility than speculators that tended to add to volatility, reinforcing that hedgers trading activity hardly affect the volatility in their returns. This suggest they are better informed by having a better control over their risk (volatility) measures. The GARCH model showed more reliance of news of volatility from previous month in speculators’ volatility. Hedgers’ and speculators’ volatility had a tendency to decay over time except for hedgers’ volatility in Treasury bonds and coffee, and gold and S&P500 for speculators’ volatility. The PARCH model exhibited more negative components in explaining current volatility. Only in crude oil, heating oil and wheat (Chicago) were idiosyncratic volatility positively related to return, reinforcing the suggestion for stringent regulation in the heating oil market. Expected idiosyncratic volatility was lower (higher) for hedgers (speculators) as expected under portfolio theory. Markets where variance or standard deviation are smaller than those of speculators support the price insurance theory where hedging enables traders to insure against the risk of price fluctuations. Where variance or standard deviation of hedgers is greater than speculators, this suggest the motivation to use futures contracts not primarily to reduce risk, but by institutional characteristics of the futures exchanges like regulation ensuring liquidity. / Results were also supportive that there was higher fluctuations in currency and financial markets due to the higher number of contracts traded and players present. Further, the four models (GARCH normal, GARCH t, PARCH normal and PARCH t) showed returns were leptokurtic. The PARCH model, under normal distribution, produced the best forecast of one-month return in ten markets. Standard deviation and variance for both hedgers’ and speculators’ results were mixed, explained by a desire to reduce risk or other institutional characteristics like regulation ensuring liquidity. Moreover, idiosyncratic volatility failed to accurately forecast the risk (standard deviation or variance based) that provided a good forecast of one-month return. This supports not only the superiority of ARCH based models over models that assume equally weighted average of past squared residuals, but also the presence of time varying volatility in futures prices time series. The last section of the study involved a stability and events analysis, using recursive estimation methods. The trading determinant model, mean equation model , return and risk model, trading activity model and volatility models were all found to be stable following the effect of major global economic events of the 1990s. Models with risk being proxied as standard deviation showed more structural breaks than where variance was used. Overall, major macroeconomic events didn’t have any significant effect upon the large hedgers’ and speculators’ behaviour and performance over the last decade.

O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar as relações entre a atividade de negócios, representada pelas variáveis de contratos em aberto e volume negociado, o conteúdo informacional dos diferentes grupos de participantes, categorizados pela bolsa brasileira, e a volatilidade diária e intradiária dos preços futuros para boi gordo, café arábica e milho, contratos agropecuários de maior liquidez na BMF&BOVESPA. O ferramental metodológico foi baseado nos trabalhos de Bessembiender e Seguin (1992), Daigler e Wiley (1999) e Wang (2002), amparados, majoritariamente, pela teoria de microestrutura de mercado e noise trading. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que existe relação entre contratos em aberto, volume negociado e volatilidade dos preços futuros. No caso de contratos em aberto, foi encontrada uma relação negativa (positiva) entre a série esperada (não esperada) e volatilidade, sendo que o impacto da série não esperada é superior, em magnitude, ao da série esperada. Para o volume negociado, em geral, há evidência de um efeito positivo do volume negociado (tanto esperado como não esperado) sobre a volatilidade, sendo que a série esperada apresentou maior impacto do que a série não esperada. Quanto ao conteúdo informacional dos participantes, no modelo com volatilidade diária, encontrou-se evidência de que choques de demanda de pessoa jurídica não financeira contribuiu para o aumento da variação dos preços futuros de boi gordo. No contrato de café arábica, o modelo sugere que choques de demanda de pessoa física influencia a volatilidade de forma positiva, enquanto que no contrato de milho, choques de demanda de todas as categorias de agentes, com exceção da pessoa jurídica não financeira, aparentemente atuam de forma a incrementar a volatilidade dos preços futuros. Desta forma, a separação da posição líquida não esperada e a avaliação do impacto positivo dos choques de demanda sobre a volatilidade sugerem que tais investidores são não informados. No âmbito da análise da volatilidade intradiária, os resultados obtidos são, majoritariamente, similares aos encontrados no modelo que analisa a volatilidade diária. Ademais, a regressão quantílica possibilitou o mapeamento completo dos impactos das variáveis analisadas, mostrando que há diferenças significativas em relação à influência das séries nos diferentes quantis da distribuição condicional da volatilidade, tanto diária quanto intradiária. / The objective of this study is to investigate the relationships between business activity, represented by the variables of open interest and trading volume, the information content of different groups of participants, categorized by the Brazilian exchange, and daily and intraday volatility of futures prices for live cattle, arabica coffee and corn, which are the Brazilian agricultural contracts that have greater liquidity. The methodological tool was based on the works of Bessembiender and Seguin (1992), Daigler and Wiley (1999) and Wang (2002), supported mostly by the market microstructure theory and noise trading. The results suggest that there is a relationship between open interest, trading volume and volatility of future prices. Particularly for open interest, is was found a negative relationship (positive) between the expected series (unexpected) and volatility, and the impact of unexpected series was superior in magnitude comparing to the expected series. For the traded volume, in general, there was evidence of a positive effect of trading volume (both expected and unexpected) on the volatility, and the expected series showed greater impact than the series unexpected. As for the informational content of the participants, considering the model that explains the daily volatility, is was found evidence that demand shocks non-financial corporation contributed to the increase in variation of live cattle futures prices. For the arabica coffee contract, the model suggests that demand shocks of individual influences positively the volatility. For the corn contract, demand shocks of all categories of participants, with the exception of non-financial corporation, apparently act in order to increase the volatility of future prices. Thus, the separation of the unexpected net position and the evaluation of the positive impact of demand shocks on volatility suggest that such investors are not informed. In examining the intraday volatility, the results obtained are mostly similar to those found in the model which analyzes the daily volatility. The quantile regression permitted the complete mapping of the impacts of the variables analyzed, showing that there are significant differences regarding the influence of the variables in the different quantiles of the conditional distribution of volatility, intraday as much daily.

Liquidity is an important market characteristic for participants in every financial market. One of the three components of liquidity is market depth. Prior literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of depth in U.S. futures markets due to past limitations on the availability of data. However, recent innovations in data collection and dissemination provide new opportunities to investigate the depth dimension of liquidity. In this dissertation, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group proprietary database on depth is employed to study the dynamics of depth in the U.S. futures markets. This database allows for the analysis of depth along the entire limit order book rather than just at the first level. The first essay examines the characteristics of depth within the context of the five-deep limit order book. Results show that a large amount of depth is present in the book beyond the best level. Furthermore, the findings show that the characteristics of five-deep depth between day and night trading vary and that depth is unequal across levels within the limit order book. The second essay examines the link between the five-deep market depth and the bid-ask spread. The results suggest an inverse relation between the spread and the depth after adjusting for control factors. The third essay explores transitory volatility in relation to depth in the limit order book. Evidence supports the relation between an increase in volatility and a subsequent decrease in market depth. Overall, the results of this dissertation are consistent with limit order traders actively managing depth along the limit order book in electronic U.S. futures markets.