The objective of this research concerns identifying whether or not there is a relationship between oil price increases in a given quarter and the likelihood of a recession in the subsequent quarter. The data used is gathered from the St. Louis Fed's Fred II, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Energy Information Administration to generate modified variables. These variables are tested using a qualitative dependent variable, recession, in a binary choice model. The findings validated the assumption that oil prices do have a correlation with recessions, and that the relationship is a direct one. Based on the model, an increase in the price of oil will positively affect the likelihood of a "recession" outcome versus the alternative, "no recession". It is anticipated that the results will inspire future research into the causes and effects of oil price surges, as well as the determinants of economic contractions in the future based on policy decisions and economic decision-making practices in the present.

A Constituição federal de 1988 determina em seus artigos 158 a 162 quais são as transferências intergovernamentais de receitas fiscais entre os entes federados (União, estados, Distrito Federal e municípios). Uma destas transferências é o repasse de 25% da arrecadação do ICMS dos estados para os municípios denominada Cota-parte do ICMS. Dos 25% do ICMS a serem transferidos, 75% devem ser repassados, proporcionalmente, ao VAF municipal que é o valor adicionado nas operações relativas à circulação de mercadorias e nas prestações de serviços realizadas em seus territórios, mais especificamente, a diferença entre as entradas e saídas de mercadorias e serviços do município. Neste contexto, o objetivo geral desta pesquisa foi analisar a forma de distribuição da Cota-parte do ICMS entre os 853 municípios mineiros, tendo como objeto de estudo principal o repasse baseado no VAF que é regulamentado pela Lei Complementar 63/1990. O período de estudo foi de 2010 a 2013 e a teoria base foi o federalismo e o federalismo fiscal que trata da repartição de receitas fiscais entre os entes federados. Tratouse de uma pesquisa descritiva, quantitativa e documental, realizada a partir dos relatórios disponibilizados pela Secretaria de Estado da Fazenda de MG – SEF/MG, Siconfi/STN e Fundação João Pinheiro – FJP. Foram aplicados os testes estatísticos Análise de Variância em Blocos Casualizados na Estrutura Aninhada ou Hierárquica e o teste Skott-Knott para comparar as estimativas de médias da Cota-parte do ICMS e do VAF entre os municípios e territórios de desenvolvimento. Os resultados destes testes demostraram, por meio dos agrupamentos formados, que não há semelhança entre elas. Para medir o grau de concentração das variáveis foi calculado o Coeficiente de Gini e plotada a Curva de Lorenz e para verificar se existe associação entre as variáveis VAF, PIB e Cota-parte do ICMS foi aplicado o teste Correlação Linear de Spearman. Além destes, foi analisada a composição da receita total dos municípios por meio de gráficos e planilhas eletrônicas. Os resultados da análise da concentração da Cotaparte do ICMS em Minas Gerais revelaram um alto grau de concentração, mesmo sendo incluído no cálculo os 25% repassados aos municípios por meio da aplicação dos critérios redistributivos da Lei 18.030/2009 - Lei Hobin Hood. Revelou-se ainda que a concentração está nos municípios que possuem maior produção de bens e serviços. / The Federal Constitution of 1988 states in its articles 158-162 which are the intergovernmental transfers of tax revenues between the federal agencies (Federal, State, Federal District and Municipalities). One of these transfers is the transfer of 25% of the ICMS collection of states to municipalities called Cota-part of the ICMS. 25% of the ICMS to be transferred, 75% must be transferred proportionally to the municipal VAF, which is the value added in the transactions regarding the circulation of goods and the rendering of services carried out in their territories, more specifically, the difference between the inputs and outputs of goods and services of the Municipality. In this context, the general objective of this research is to analyze the distribution of quota-part of the ICMS among the 853 municipalities of Minas Gerais, being the main object of this study, the transfer based on VAF which is regulated by Complementary Law 63/1990. The study period was from 2010 to 2013 and the base theory was federalism and fiscal federalism which deals with the division of tax revenues between the federal entities. This was a descriptive, quantitative and desk research conducted from reports provided by the State of MG Finance - SEF / MG, Siconfi / STN and João Pinheiro Foundation - FJP. ANOVA statistical tests were applied in randomized blocks in Nested or hierarchical structure and Skott-Knott test to compare the averages of estimates of Cota-part of the ICMS and VAF between municipalities and development of territories. The results of these tests demonstrated by means of groups formed, there is no similarity between them. To measure the degree of concentration of the variables we calculated the Gini coefficient and plotted the Lorenz curve and to investigate the association between VAF variables, GDP and quota-part of the ICMS it was applied linear correlation test of Spearman. In addition, it was analyzed the composition of the total revenue of the municipalities through graphs and spreadsheets. The results of analyzing the concentration of quota-part of the ICMS in Minas Gerais showed a high degree of concentration, even being included in calculating the 25% allocated to municipalities through the implementation of redistributive criteria of Law 18.030 / 2009 - Law Robin Hood. It also revealed that the concentration is in the municipalities that have greater production of goods and services. / Dissertação (Mestrado)

This thesis describes the currently highly debated topic especially in the field of small and medium sized enterprises - technology transfer. This, together with research and development which is an integral part, can greatly contribute to enhancing the competitiveness of the country, improve the problem of unemployment, GDP and inflows of foreign investors and so on. The aim was to analyze and describe the current situation of technology transfer in the Czech Republic. This work clearly shows that in this area, our country is far behind the developed countries. The result of this work is to propose possible solutions to the most streamlined recovery process of technology transfer resulted into obtaining maximum economic benefit for the Czech Republic.