The objective of this thesis is to find out what factors have been the main sources of economic growth in China in 2003 and 2010. It also aims to find out whether the Solow model can be used to explain growth in China, if factors of growth are the same in rich and poor regions, whether the factors are the same in 2003 and 2010 and if the results are in line with previous research. The theoretical framework is the Solow model. Empirical tests are performed using econometrics, and therefore this thesis has a quantitative approach. Factors used are growth in GDP per capita which is tested against investments, household savings, the level of GDP per capita, population growth, healthcare and education. The results show that the Solow model can explain economic growth in China. Investments, the level of GDP per capita and population growth are the factors most significant to growth. In poor regions, both investments and population growth are more significant than in rich regions, whereas healthcare is more significant in rich regions. Investments and population growth also have a smaller impact in 2010 than 2003. Healthcare is more significant in 2010 and than 2003, and education is only significant in 2010. Previous research shows a wide range of results, and the results of investments and population growth are consistent with those.

This thesis characterizes the basic macroeconomic indicators of the economy of Austria and its economic development. Generaly I outlined the strengths of the Austrian economy, including the consequences of massive financial crisis. In the introduction I described the general characteristic and economy of Austria and all nine Federal Republics. I defined time periods the economy of Austria, which I generally characterized, with emphasis on the forecast of economic development in 2009 and 2010. The thesis also describes the preparation of Austria to join the European Union with a focus on economic co-operation of Austria and the European Community before its entry into the EU. Also, I attend to the economic development of Austria joining the EU. I deal with foreign trade of Austria with an emphasis on the commodity and territorial structure of exports and imports and the financial sector. The thesis also solves the questions of mutual cooperation of Austria and the Czech Republic.

This thesis develops a new Bayesian approach to structural break modeling. The focuses of the approach are the modeling of in-sample structural breaks and forecasting time series allowing out-of-sample breaks. Our model has some desirable features. First, the number of regimes is not fixed and is treated as a random variable in our model. Second, our model adopts a hierarchical prior for regime coefficients, which allows for the regime coefficients of one regime to contain information about regime coefficients of other regimes. However, the regime coefficients can be analytically integrated out of the posterior distribution and therefore we only need to deal with one level of the hierarchy. Third, the implementation of our model is simple and the computational cost is low. Our model is applied to two different time series: S&P 500 monthly returns and U.S. real GDP quarterly growth rates. We linked breaks detected by our model to certain historical events.

Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe Abstract This thesis estimates the effect of Euro adoption on newest Eurozone members using synthetic control method. The effect is estimated on income per capita and GDP growth. Estimates indicate overall indecisive effect for Slovakia and Malta, neutral effect for Estonia and negative effect for Slovenia and Cyprus. The cost of Euro for Cyprus is estimated to be as high as 1/3 of GDP per capita. In some cases the direction of the effect changed before and after the financial crisis. The quality of inference suffers from low number of observations. Methodological assumptions are discussed, concluding that quality of Eastern European time series likely causes substantial bias in the results.

THE ABSTRACT In the new global economy majority of the developed countries use imposition of sanctions in the case of some offences. I have applied the synthetic control methods on this particular case of political pressure to quantify the real costs of anti-Russian sanctions to the economy. Based on the results of this study it was identified, that real GDP growth rate of Russia was continuously reducing by about -1,19% per quarter on average. Reaching the highest value of sanction's effect of -2,8% in real GDP growth rate at the end of 2015. It was also revealed that sanctions had positive effect on current account balance of Russia, that indicator was increasing during the whole studied after sanction's period by about 3,15% per quarter on average. This thesis is presented as a research of interconnection the imposition of 2014 sanctions against Russia and indicators of economic development (GDP, inflation) using synthetic control methods. It was revealed that former economic and social mechanisms aren't capable to provide further development of economy of Russia, its self-sufficiency and safety. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords sanctions, synthetic control method, Russia, GDP growth rate, current account balance Author's e-mail 51375259@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail...

The aim of the thesis is to quantify the impact of the 2008 financial crisis to U.S. economic growth and also identify potential scenarios for future development. For this purpose, there was selected a sample of historical cases of financial crisis where followed the process of deleveraging. Identified impacts were applied to estimate the future GDP growth. In the period 0-5 years after the crisis GDP typically slowed by 40-45%, in 0-7 year horizon by 28-35%, and in the 10 year horizon by 17-20%. In a case of deducting export effect, slowdown of GDP growth is even higher. For the next 8 years average U.S. GDP growth is estimated to 2.26-2.6%. Compared with the pre-crisis period, slowdown reaches 14-25%. Process of deleveraging is now in the one third of the expected duration. The financial sector and household sector remains vulnerable to return the economy into recession and will deleverage further. Non-financial firms are sound. The greatest risk is hidden in the public sector which is experiencing high deficits and uncontrolled growth of debt. Debt is starting to approach level that may reduce long-term dynamics of GDP growth. The future path is in the hands of government officials. Fiscal consolidation treat the root of the problem, but it is painful and hard to approve. Delays in solving the problem is less painful way, but it can result in massive government debt, as it is now in Japan. Repeating Japan scenario is unlikely. The magnitude of balance sheet recession in Japan was much larger. The measures taken have not been so quick and strong.

Financial integration has been at the centre of a wide debate, especially with respect to its effects on stability, inequality and welfare. This thesis presents an empirical investigation on the relationship between financial integration and macroeconomic volatility. The present study takes advantage of the publication of a new database on integration in the banking industry, and estimates its effects on the volatility of output and consumption, on a set of 136 countries over the years 1996 to 2009, using regions and country fixed effects. The analysis focuses on the effect of foreign bank presence on macroeconomic volatility, and as a further application, on the effect of foreign bank assets on macroeconomic volatility. Furthermore, the present study will determine whether the findings change for Central and Eastern European Countries and the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States. The main finding is that foreign bank presence is significantly related to the volatility of output, but it is not related to the volatility of private consumption growth. The original contribution of this paper is to empirically analyse data on foreign bank presence as proxies for financial integration, and to relate them to the volatility of output and consumption.

Humanity’s detrimental impacts on the Earth’s ecosystems have been studied extensively, and these impacts’ negative consequences across societal groups, nations, and generations, have garnered much attention, from the scientific community as well as from civil society, where the attention often has been directed at how unfair the distribution of these environmental burdens is. The fairness of the distribution of global environmental benefits, however, has seen much less study, especially when it comes to the implementation of such concerns for fairness in environmental policy. In support of the research project Beyond GDP-growth, this thesis has centered on a Swedish context, and has focused on the term “biocapacity”, which is a quantifiable measure of many environmental benefits, and in the thesis is defined as the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to regenerate the biological materials extracted by humans. The thesis has then aimed to determine the current potential for the implementation of a fair distribution of global biocapacity in Swedish environmental policy, mainly by way of a series of interviews with individuals engaged in different forms of Swedish environmental work – from different levels of government, to civil society and centers of scientific research. It is concluded that the current potential for the implementation of a fair distribution of global biocapacity in Swedish environmental policy is primarily hindered by the seeming lack of a relevant discourse on the matter. Without such a discourse, a lack of public understanding of the subject is deemed to cause poor public support for any potential policies promoting a fair distribution of global biocapacity. It is suggested that a relevant and effective discourse is best achieved through transparent trade practices, and by the active participation of scientific experts and other actors outside of the political system. Furthermore, the thesis discusses the usefulness of the term “biocapacity” in this context, concluding that more research is needed, while identifying the main point of contention as what the term is intuitively understood to mean, as well as whether or not it can be used as a means to achieve a focused public discourse on the fair distribution of environmental goods. / Mänsklighetens skadliga inverkan på jordens ekosystem har studerats i stor utsträckning, och den här inverkans negativa konsekvenser för olika samhällsgrupper, länder och generationer har fått mycket uppmärksamhet från både forskningsvärlden och civilsamhället, där det främst har fokuserats på den orättvisa fördelningen av dessa ”miljöbördor”. Men, rättvisa när det kommer till fördelningen av ”miljönyttor” har studerats betydligt mindre, särskilt i samband med hur sådana rättviseaspekter kan implementeras i miljöpolicy. Den här uppsatsen har – i en svensk kontext och som stöd till forskningsprojektet Bortom BNP-tillväxt – fokuserat på en kvantifierbar term kallad ”biokapacitet”, som innefattar många miljönyttor, och i uppsatsen definieras som landbaserade ekosystems kapacitet att regenerera de biologiska material som människor extraherar. Uppsatsen har sedan ämnat att undersöka de nuvarande förutsättningarna för implementeringen av en rättvis fördelning av global biokapacitet i svensk miljöpolicy, främst genom en serie intervjuer med individer som i olika sammanhang är engagerade i svenskt miljöarbete – från kommunal till statlig nivå, samt i civilsamhället och i forskningssammanhang. Uppsatsen utmynnar i slutsatsen att de nuvarande förutsättningarna för implementeringen av en rättvis fördelning av global biokapacitet i svensk miljöpolicy främst begränsas av att den offentliga debatten till synes inte behandlar ämnet nämnvärt. Utan en offentlig debatt om ämnet förmodas den resulterande kunskapsbristen hos allmänheten leda till ett bristande offentligt stöd för policyförslag som förespråkar en rättvis fördelning av global biokapacitet. En relevant och effektiv offentlig debatt tros bäst kunna uppstå genom transparent handel och ett aktivt deltagande av experter från forskningsvärlden, samt andra utompolitiska aktörer. Dessutom diskuterar uppsatsen nyttan av begreppet ”biokapacitet” i en sådan debatt, och kommer fram till att vidare studier krävs för att nå en tillfredsställande slutsats. Uppsatsen identifierar dock den intuitiva uppfattningen av termens betydelse, samt frågan om termen kan användas för att uppnå en fokuserad debatt på ämnet, som de främsta problemområdena som behöver behandlas. / Beyond GDP-growth (sv. Bortom BNP-tillväxt)

This doctoral thesis is a collection of four papers on the analysis of the term structure of interest rates with a focus at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance. "Risk in Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Bond Return Predictability" documents that factors related to risks underlying the macroeconomy such as expectations, uncertainty and downside (upside) macroeconomic risks are able to explain variation in bond risk premia. The information provided is found to be, to a large extent, unrelated to that contained in forward rates and current macroeconomic conditions. "Out-of-sample bond excess returns predictability" provides evidence that macroeconomic variables, risks in macroeconomic outcomes as well as the combination of these different sources of information are able to generate statistical as well as economic bond excess returns predictability in an out-of-sample setting. Results suggest that this finding is not driven by revisions in macroeconomic data. The term spread (yield curve slope) is largely used as an indicator of future economic activity. "Re-examining the predictive power of the yield curve with quantile regression" provides new evidence on the predictive ability of the term spread by studying the whole conditional distribution of GDP growth. "Modeling and forecasting the yield curve by extended Nelson-Siegel class of models: a quantile regression approach" deals with yield curve prediction. More flexible Nelson-Siegel models are found to provide better fitting to the data, even when penalizing for additional model complexity. For the forecasting exercise, quantile-based models are found to overcome all competitors. / <p>Diss. Stockholm :  Stockholm School of Economics, 2014. Introduction together with 4 papers.</p>

The main objective of this thesis is to provide an overview of developments and issues in the context of the European debt crisis. Euro as a central aspect of Economic and Monetary Union has a major impact on convergence and existing systemic problems of the EU. The first chapter provides a brief description of the european integration since World War II in the context of Economic and Monetary union. The second chapter defines the concept of nominal and real convergence and dedicates closer to the Maastricht convergence criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact, which was the result of efforts towards closer fiscal coordination. Moreover, it summarizes the main causes of the financial crisis and subsequently analyses its impact on the EUR/USD currency pair. The fourth chapter focuses on the systemic weaknesses of the eurozone with an emphasis on the imbalance in the current account balance of payments. The last chapter summarizes the approaches to solving the debt crisis assuming that current steps taken by eurozone leaders in cooperation with the governments of intebted members fail.